Powerful solar flare. New powerful solar flare: What to expect and why it is dangerous

MOSCOW, September 8 – RIA Novosti. The plasma cloud, which was formed as a result of a powerful flare on the Sun, reached the ground. Now the magnetic field of the ejection is “burning” the field lines of our planet, says the Laboratory of Solar X-ray Astronomy of the Physical Institute of the Academy of Sciences (FIAN).

Scientist: Current solar flares are a mysteryA new powerful flare occurred on the Sun. Expert Sergei Bogachev, speaking on Sputnik radio, explained how scientists perceive what is happening and how such solar activity could threaten humanity.

According to scientists, the plasma cloud arrived in Earth's orbit about 12 hours earlier than predicted. This means that its speed was one and a half times higher than expected.

Record solar activity

The strongest surge in solar activity in the last 12 years took place on September 6-8. Several flashes of extreme brightness occurred on the surface of the celestial body. Coronal matter was emitted towards the Earth. On our planet, this phenomenon caused a strong geomagnetic storm, but so far solar flares have not caused any negative consequences.

The first outbreak occurred on Wednesday, September 6, and became the most powerful in the last 12 years. She was assigned a score of X9.3. (The previous explosion of similar force was recorded on September 7, 2005). The sunspot in which the flare occurred remained active until September 8, emitting three more moderate (level M) and one strong (level X) flare. The last outbreak, which was closest in strength to level X, occurred around 11:00 Moscow time.

The shock wave from the first flare reached the Earth much earlier than expected: already at midnight on September 8, a strong (fourth level on a five-point scale) geomagnetic storm began. According to forecasts from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the magnetic storm should end at 18:00 Moscow time.

Sunquake and the placebo effect

During the first flare, seismic waves, which scientists call a sunquake, propagated across the surface of the star, Alexey Struminsky, a leading researcher at the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told RIA Novosti.

“What’s interesting about this flare is that at the time of individual flares, there is a sunquake, when seismic waves propagate across the Sun - they are visible in the images,” he said.

According to Struminsky, the consequences of such an outbreak should not cause any harm to health. “There are people who believe in this (the effect of solar flares on health). There are those who don’t believe. If we talk about those who believe, it will affect the same way as similar flares affected in previous cycles... Almost no one will notice anything ", said the scientist.

He clarified that, despite the strength of the outbreak, there will be only a minor impact on the operation of radio communications and satellites.

The head of the Moscow Space Club, Ivan Moiseev, has a slightly different opinion. According to him, the outbreak could lead to disruptions in the operation of satellites. Failures should not occur, but temporary equipment failures during geomagnetic storms are a common phenomenon.

But Moiseev ruled out the possibility of a negative impact of outbreaks on people’s health. It is rather psychological factors that have a harmful effect.

“Such facts have not yet been recorded by scientific research. Theoretically, yes, it is possible, but practically it has not been proven. We must understand that the placebo effect in the feelings of people reading news about flares, as well as about sunspots, has a stronger effect on their physical and psycho-emotional state. A person is worried, expects troubles - that’s what happens,” Moiseev believes.

All systems are working properly

Despite the alarming prospects for radio and satellite technology, there have been no reports of failures or serious malfunctions of the equipment. The first to report that solar flares had no effect on control systems were the Strategic Missile Forces.

“The most powerful geomagnetic storm caused by a solar flare did not have a significant impact on the performance of the combat control systems of the Strategic Missile Forces.<…>The systems make it possible to eliminate any influence of external sources on the combat readiness of troops. The paths for transmitting orders and collecting reports of the automated combat command and control system are formed by wired, radio and satellite communication channels and have the necessary survivability and noise immunity,” the Ministry of Defense said.

The department emphasized that combat control orders are communicated to launchers directly, bypassing intermediate links, including under conditions of nuclear influence and electronic suppression.

Later, the Ministry of Defense reported that there was no harmful impact on the Russian orbital group.

“The magnetic storm caused by the solar flare did not have a negative impact on the Russian orbital constellation and ground control systems for spacecraft of the Russian Space Forces,” the Russian military department noted.

“The duty forces of the ground-based automated control complex carry out communication sessions and control of spacecraft of the Russian orbital constellation in normal mode,” the Ministry of Defense added.

The work of the largest Russian cellular operators was also not affected by the consequences of astronomical phenomena.

“The solar flares did not in any way affect the operation of the MTS network,” said MTS press secretary Dmitry Solodovnikov.

“Megafon’s network is operating normally,” the operator’s press service assured.

“The Beeline network is operating normally, there are no deteriorations due to the solar flare,” said a VimpelCom representative.

There was no need to evacuate the international crew of the International Space Station. In the event of a threat of radiation exposure, cosmonauts and astronauts usually hide in the descent module of the Soyuz spacecraft docked at the station. The Mission Control Center (MCC) reported that the radiation background on the ISS, despite new outbreaks, quickly returned to normal.

Northern lights at unprecedented southern latitudes

Pavel Skripnichenko, a member of the Department of Astronomy at the Ural Federal University, reported that such solar flares can cause northern lights at latitudes where they usually do not occur.

“In the Urals, in general, aurora as such is not observed, because the latitudes are quite southern. Normal auroras, multicolored, which are best known, are observed to the north. But as a result of strong solar activity in the Urals, at a latitude of about 50-60 degrees, they can be observed here such red flashes. That is, it is not guaranteed that they will be visible, but they, in principle, can be observed when there is high solar activity or when there is a flare,” the scientist said.

Senior researcher at the Pulkovo Laboratory Sergei Smirnov said that the northern lights may also be visible in St. Petersburg.

“In St. Petersburg, there may be a high probability of the northern lights, but due to heavy cloudiness, citizens may not see them. For example, now the cloud cover over the city is two tiers. So it is better to observe this phenomenon outside the city,” Smirnov said.

According to NOAA forecasts, the northern lights, triggered by powerful flares on the Sun, have about a 50% chance of reaching Moscow on Sunday night.

However, Vladimir Surdin, a senior researcher at the P. K. Sternberg State Astronomical Institute, believes that large cities are rather poorly suited for observing the aurora. Even if it does reach Moscow, Muscovites will have little chance of observing the amazing phenomenon.

“It’s unlikely, since there are clouds over Moscow, and they are unlikely to disappear in the coming nights. We definitely won’t see the lights, even if there are any. Over the city, such things are not visible even in cloudless weather, because the sky is very overexposed. The aurora is not such a bright thing,” Surdin told RIA Novosti.

The end of the strongest storm

After several flares of average magnitude (but approaching the limit of powerful flares), the activity of the Sun dropped to a weak class C level, according to the graph of the Laboratory of X-ray Solar Astronomy of the Physical Institute of the Academy of Sciences.

The FIAN representative clarified that a magnetic storm of the fourth level on a five-point scale is occurring on Earth. The magnitude of the event is approximately 10 times greater than predicted. Canada, now on the night side of the Earth, experiences strong auroras at high and mid-latitudes. The storm is planetary in nature.

Scientists note that what happened is a natural result of changes in the solar corona over the past three days. During this period, as a result of the interaction of two large groups of sunspots, energy accumulated, which was released in a major flare. Currently, the consequences of this natural phenomenon are difficult to predict with sufficient accuracy.

According to the NOAA forecast, the end of the magnetic storm on Earth is expected around 18:00 Moscow time.

A solar flare is a super-powerful process of release of light, thermal and kinetic energy in all layers of the solar atmosphere. This process lasts several minutes and releases billions of megatons of energy in TNT equivalent. On Earth it can cause magnetic storms.

The most powerful flare since October 2017 was recorded on the Sun on February 7 at about 18:00. This phenomenon on a star in the solar system marked the end of a burst of activity that had been observed since February 4. During this time, the flux of radiation from the Sun increased 10 times. At the moment, the level of radio emission from the Sun is also increased.

Solar flares today 2018 magnetic storms: a magnetic storm will pass through the earth due to a solar flare

The laboratory explained that the flare occurred relatively far from the Sun-Earth line. In addition, it belongs to the so-called pulse type, which, according to theory, is not accompanied by emissions of solar plasma into interplanetary space. Such emissions are the main cause of strong magnetic storms. Therefore, this outbreak has little impact on Earth and people.

The increase in solar activity is not entirely normal. Since this happens against the background of the developing minimum of the solar cycle. It seems that the Sun is thus simply burning away the last remaining magnetic fields from the previous cycle.

Scientists also noted that flares are now observed at the equator of the Sun. At the moment, the disk of the Sun is indeed completely clear of spots, with the exception of the equator.

Solar flares today 2018 magnetic storms: how magnetic storms affect health and how to protect yourself from them

Scientists argue that such outbreaks create discomfort, destroying a person’s calm routine, and also leading to social upheaval.

Doctors say that some patients feel changes in advance. They complain of weakness, anxiety, irritability, absent-mindedness, headache and heart failure, as well as surges in blood pressure.

1. It is advisable to drink more water, eat more vegetables and fruits. Try not to eat fatty and heavy foods, as well as salty, smoked and spiced foods.

2. Refrain from drinking coffee and strong tea.

3. If possible, avoid severe stress and physical activity.

4. You need to move more and take walks in the fresh air.

Magnetic storms not only affect the condition of many people, but can even change the direction of animal migration.

Scientists write that in this unique flare, the energy accumulated on the star as a result of the interaction of the two largest groups of sunspots in several years splashed out. She was assigned a score of X9.3. According to the existing classification, a score consists of a Latin letter (A, B, C, M or X) and the number following it. In this case, A denotes the smallest value of the flare X-ray intensity peak, and X denotes the largest. Over the past 20 years of observations of the Sun, only five flares of greater intensity have been recorded on it, the last of which occurred on September 7, 2005.

“Events of such power are among the largest that our star is capable of producing and which are formed only under very rare, unique conditions, usually at the stage of peak solar activity,” the report says.

Experts still have to understand how such a powerful flare could occur against the backdrop of minimum solar activity, and also what will happen to the Earth and outer space next to it in the coming days, since the explosion occurred in the geoeffective region near the Sun-Earth line, that is, it will have the maximum impact on the radiation, geomagnetic and electromagnetic conditions in near-Earth space.

Today’s solar flare in a few days could disrupt radio communications on Earth and cause aurora in the latitudes of Moscow, Sergei Bogachev, chief researcher at the Laboratory of X-ray Solar Astronomy of the Lebedev Physical Institute, told Cherdak.

“Not every solar flare affects the Earth, but in this case it is clear that the flare occurred quite close to the center of the solar disk, so at first glance there will be consequences. The outbreak is very large, it occurred almost in the center, it cannot be without consequences,” Bogachev said.

The scientist noted that so far information about the event is very limited - by Thursday morning, scientists will begin to receive more detailed data from coronagraphs, and “it will be possible to literally describe by the hour what will happen when.”

The consequences of a record outbreak will be extended over time. The level of X-ray radiation in Earth's orbit is already elevated. And in a few hours, the atmosphere of our planet will begin to absorb heavy particles, which, unlike radiation, move from the Sun at a speed less than the speed of light.

“They will “partially” fall out in the area of ​​the poles - these are the aurora, which, since the flare is large, can reach the middle latitudes, and it is possible even as far as Moscow,” Bogachev said.

And in a couple of days, clouds of plasma ejected by the Sun will reach the Earth, and a magnetic storm will begin, during which radio communication will be disrupted.

Bogachev does not rule out that the record outbreak may be followed by new outbreaks, including stronger ones. The active region on the Sun that produced today's flare is still “alive” and its energy reserve has not yet been exhausted.

“At the end of October 2003 there was the largest flare in the entire history of observations, and it seemed that everything, the Sun had exhausted its energy. However, just a few days later, the same area produced an even larger outbreak. That is, in general, this situation, when a large outbreak is followed by an even larger one, may repeat itself,” the scientist said.

The Lebedev Physical Institute notes that the level of flare activity currently exceeds 10 (the exact score is 10.3). This value is already outside the usual color scale, which has five values ​​(from green to yellow, orange, red and maximum, violet, levels of solar activity) and corresponds to the so-called black, the highest level of activity.

The flare was observed only by foreign space observatories, since the launch of the only Russian solar project - an observatory with the working name ARKA - is scheduled for 2024.

“This is one of the most mysterious events that the Sun has ever produced in the history of observations from Earth,” astrophysicist Sergei Bogachev told the VZGLYAD newspaper, commenting on a series of powerful flares that have occurred on the Sun in recent days. He told what consequences can be expected from these outbreaks on Earth.

On Friday, a new powerful flare was recorded on the Sun, its maximum occurred at 11.00 Moscow time, as follows from the solar activity graph of the X-ray Solar Astronomy laboratory of the Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (FIAN). A powerful magnetic storm arose on Earth, which is estimated at four units on a five-point scale.

The FIAN representative admitted that the strength of the magnetic storm turned out to be ten times greater than predicted. Its consequences are difficult to predict. In particular, strong auroras began in the Northern Hemisphere at uncharacteristic latitudes. In addition, it was reported that during the flare, seismic waves—a “sunquake”—propagated across the solar surface.

According to scientists, the direction of the magnetic field of the ejection is unfavorable for our planet - the field is directed opposite to the Earth’s and is currently “burning the field lines” of the Earth.

Sergei Bogachev, chief researcher at the Solar X-ray Astronomy laboratory, member of the Scientific Council of the Lebedev Physical Institute, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, and astrophysicist, spoke in an interview with the newspaper VZGLYAD about whether such “burning” is dangerous for earthlings.

OPINION: Sergey Alexandrovich, how long will this magnetic storm on Earth last?

Sergei Bogachev: Firstly, it is worth noting that the outbreaks occurred on Wednesday, the 6th. Accordingly, the clouds of plasma that are ejected during the flare reached us only on Friday. The “impact” was really strong, the flash was large and the speeds were high; on Friday night there was a magnetic storm of very high power - four points on a five-point scale, almost maximum. On Friday afternoon the activity had already subsided. The magnetic storm is still ongoing, the Earth's magnetic field is still disturbed, but its severity is gradually decreasing.

Solar activity is cyclical, and this cycle is well studied. In fact, it has been observed for 300 years already and for all 300 years it worked like a clock. Once every 11 years, the Sun enters a state of maximum activity. But now we are at a minimum, so the fact itself is unusual.

On the other hand, the Sun is still not a clock, not a mechanism, but a complex physical object, which we especially do not fully understand. In a sense, this fact simply confirms our helplessness.

OPINION: One of the flares was classified as extremely strong - as scientists say, class X9.3. How rare is this?

S.B.: There have been events in our history that were perhaps one and a half times more powerful. But due to a combination of factors, such a large flare and the fact that it occurred at a minimum of solar activity is one of the most mysterious events that the Sun has ever produced in the history of observations from Earth.

OPINION: They say it “burns the power lines” of the Earth. It sounds scary. But what does this really mean?

S.B.: This is a figurative expression. The fact is that the magnetic field, if visualized, is like arrows directed, say, upward. Imagine there is another field with arrows pointing down. You can call the first field a plus, and the second - a minus. With such interaction, these fields begin to annihilate each other, as it were. So it turns out that the ejection field “burns” and destroys some parts of the Earth’s magnetic field. The substance from the ejection, which is usually blocked by the Earth's field, gets the opportunity to penetrate deeper into those layers of the atmosphere into which plasma from the Sun usually does not penetrate.

Accordingly, the Earth's radiation belts are saturated with plasma from the Sun. This explains the aurora that was observed in Canada at the time of the “impact” - very strong, at latitudes up to 40 degrees.

OPINION: Does this somehow affect technology?

S.B.: The aurora can be seen, and the storms can, in a sense, be felt. Flares greatly affect the upper atmosphere. In particular, the Earth has an ionosphere, this is the outer shell of the atmosphere, which contains neutral gases and quasi-neutral plasma. The ionosphere significantly influences shortwave radio communications. Essentially, short radio waves are simply reflected from the ionosphere. Accordingly, radio amateurs know that during solar flares and high solar activity, the nature of radio communication changes. It can improve as the ionosphere becomes denser, or deteriorate as the ionosphere fluctuates.

Interaction with satellites is difficult because there is now a lot of plasma in the outer space surrounding the Earth, which refracts and blocks signals.

Magnetic storms can affect global electrical networks, causing excess currents and voltage surges in them. However, in recent years, the level of protection has increased so much that it is now impossible to imagine the failure of electrical networks.

We must understand that we live, in a sense, at the bottom of the ocean of air. A parallel can be drawn. Above there is a force 10 storm at sea, ships are sinking, and somewhere at a depth of several kilometers a fish is swimming and not noticing anything. So flares have little effect on ground-based equipment.

OPINION: What about people’s health?

S.B.: Weather-sensitive people notice pressure changes and some seasonal effects. A number of people say that they feel the influence of the geomagnetic background. I don’t belong to this group, so to believe or not to believe is everyone’s personal choice. Human health is a complex thing and cannot be described by formulas. I'm not a doctor, I do physics.

Magnetic storms are planetary in nature. There is no place where you can go, hide. If people are weather sensitive, they just need to take the usual precautions. People who know about their tendency to such effects understand this.

VZGLYAD: Do you expect new outbreaks in the near future?

S.B.: Observations show that the solar energy has not yet been exhausted, and flares continue. At the same time, the group of sunspots, which is the center of this activity, is now moving more and more to the side due to the rotation of the Sun - relatively speaking, towards the solar horizon. I think that in a day or two it will already be completely “on the edge” of the Sun, from where influence on the Earth is generally impossible. Then he will go to the other side altogether.

If this series of flares again leads to some kind of major record, most likely it will happen on the other side of the Sun. We won't even know about him.

"Railway Storm", May 13, 1921. On that day, astronomers noticed a huge sunspot with a radius of approximately 150 thousand kilometers. On May 15, a geomagnetic storm followed, which disabled half of the equipment of the New York Central Railroad and left almost the entire East Coast of the United States without communications.

Solar flares July 21, 2012. Active solar region 1520 released a huge X1.4-class flare towards Earth, causing auroras and severe disruptions in radio communications. Class X flares are the most powerful of all known in terms of X-ray intensity. They themselves usually do not reach the Earth, but their influence on the magnetic field cannot be underestimated.

The 1972 outbreak and Apollo 16. Traveling through space during maximum solar activity is extremely dangerous. In August 1972, the crew of Apollo 16 on the Moon narrowly escaped the effects of an X2 class flare. If the astronauts had been any less lucky, they would have received a radiation dose of 300 rem, which would almost certainly have killed them within a month.

Solar flare on Bastille Day. On July 14, 2000, satellites detected a powerful X5.7 class flare on the surface of the Sun. The ejection was so strong that even the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft, located at the edge of the solar system, detected it. There were interruptions in radio communications throughout the Earth, and people flying over the poles of the planet received a dose of radiation - fortunately, a relatively small one.

The solar flare of August 9, 2011 marked the peak of the current solar cycle, reaching a magnitude of X6.9. It was the largest of the Cycle 24 emissions detected by NASA's new Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite. The flare ionized the Earth's upper atmosphere, causing interference in radio communications.

The largest outbreak of 2015 occurred on May 7. Its power reached “only” class X2.7, but this was enough to cause bright auroras and communication interruptions. And besides, there are beautiful photographs from observing satellites.

The solar flare on December 5, 2006 reached a record power of X9, but fortunately was not directed towards the Earth. Our planet, in principle, is a rather small “target”, with which humanity is very lucky. Two STEREO solar probes recently launched into orbit tracked the event from start to finish.

The geomagnetic storm of March 13, 1989 demonstrated how dangerous solar storms can become. The impact of the X15 outbreak has caused power outages for millions of Canadians in Montreal and the surrounding Quebec area. The electrical networks of the northern United States barely withstood the electromagnetic shock. All over the world, radio communications were interrupted and the aurora was spreading.

The Halloween flare of October 2003 was one of the most powerful X45 class solar storms ever recorded. It mostly missed Earth, but the coronal mass ejections damaged a number of satellites and caused interruptions in telephone and mobile communications.

Carrington's Superstorm. On September 1, 1859, astronomer Richard Carrington observed the brightest flare, the coronal ejection from which reached the Earth in only 18 hours. Telegraph networks failed throughout Europe and the United States, and some stations caught fire due to short circuits. That ejection wasn't the largest, around X10, but it hit the Earth at the perfect time and caused the most destruction.

The power of “solar storms” reaches billions of megatons in TNT equivalent—that’s how much energy our entire civilization could consume in a million years. Coronal mass ejections are mainly represented by electromagnetic radiation, which, when accurately hitting the Earth, causes geomagnetic storms. The consequences are interruptions in communication and failure of electronics. Considering that every year humanity relies more and more on technology, a strong geomagnetic storm can cause real chaos. Here are the 10 most powerful solar storms of the last two centuries.