The operation of the US allies to storm Mosul and Raqqa continues to drag on. A month of assault: why there is no progress seen in the actions of the Western coalition near Mosul All of Iraq is burning

The Iraqi army and Kurdish militias - about 30 thousand people - are working together to advance from the south and east of Mosul.

About 4 thousand fighters are clearing villages occupied by ISIS. As part of the agreement with the Iraqi federal government, the Kurds will support Iraqi security forces, but will not enter the city.

The exact number of terrorists is unknown—the figures range from 3 to 9 thousand, but no one actually counted them. The head of the Kurdish General Staff, Jamal Iminiki, said that there may be militants in Mosul who were previously driven out of the cities of Ramadi, Tikrit and Baiji: “It is impossible to make predictions... IS forces in Mosul are significant.”

The population was also not counted. It is known that before the war, about 1.5 million people lived in Mosul. According to other sources, IS holds in the city. Perhaps the organizers of the large-scale operation are counting on a mass exodus of militants. The logic of military planning here clearly gives way to the urgent need to demonstrate US strength on the eve of the presidential election.

I believe that the coalition clearly underestimates the enemy and overestimates its own capabilities. However, in case of failure, Baghdad and Washington will traditionally begin to prepare another large-scale operation against the Islamic State.

And it is unlikely that the capture of Mosul will correct the views of our partners on Russia’s fight against terrorists in Syrian Aleppo.

© AP Photo/Bram Janssen

© AP Photo/Bram Janssen

Fortification system

Mosul is located on the Tigris River, 396 km northwest of Baghdad. IS militants captured this second largest city in Iraq in 2014, and have done a lot to strengthen their “capital”. A significant arsenal, a system of long-term firing points, concrete bunkers and urban development with a civilian population of two million have turned Mosul into a “tough nut to crack.”

The core of IS units are former soldiers of Saddam Hussein's army, who have special training and combat experience. Previously, they had already defeated superior Iraqi security forces, and a year earlier in the same Mosul they captured 2,300 American armored vehicles.

In May 2015, 30 thousand IS fighters in the Iraqi provinces of Ninewa and Anbar pushed aside the well-armed 190 thousand government army, and a repeated demonstration of superiority in October 2016 cannot be ruled out.

Air support for the advancing coalition forces is objectively limited by the “human shield” of the civilian population. Carpet bombing is out of the question, and there are not enough missiles for every ISIS “rat hole” in Mosul.

It is unclear who will be entrusted with the direct liberation of city blocks, where every house will have to pay. Artillery and armored vehicles will not help there. If Iraqi security forces enter Mosul, success is not certain. American special forces in an unfamiliar eastern city will be an equally convenient target. IS militants are mobile, well-armed, and sophisticated in their mining of the combat zone.

Significant losses are guaranteed; Americans don’t fight like that. The forces of the people's militia are limited.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan recalled that his country also has the right to participate in the liberation of Iraqi Mosul from IS. Turkish authorities. This stirs up the intrigue, but does not yet strengthen the liberation group.

Is there a military solution in principle? An assault, siege or blockade of Mosul could drag on for many months and lead to hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties.

Humanitarian despair

Against the background of the military operation in Mosul, a large-scale humanitarian crisis is unfolding, the elimination of which requires considerable resources and efforts of the international community.

The representative of the Iraqi branch of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Sarah al-Zawkari, believes that up to 1 million citizens may leave Mosul. It is likely that many of them will join refugee camps in the EU (in transit through Turkey). The humanitarian situation in Iraq is extremely difficult; already today, more than 3 million displaced people are struggling to survive here, in need of basic necessities: food, water, medicine, a roof over their heads.

The Office of the High Commissioner for Affairs in Geneva expressed similar concerns. Will these organizations have to go to the International Criminal Court to hold the inhumane American coalition accountable, similar to the Syrian issue?

The Middle East is easy to unbalance and very difficult to return to its original state.

The Iraqi army has occupied another block of eastern Mosul, local media reported. However, a high-ranking source in the Russian Ministry of Defense explained to Gazeta.Ru that reports about the coalition’s successes in Iraq are “nothing more than fiction,” and the assault on Mosul itself could drag on until the spring of 2017. The outcome of the war against jihadists will depend on what team the new US president will form around himself, experts believe.

The Iraqi military has cleared another quarter of eastern Mosul, the Az-Zahra district, of militants, local TV channel Al-Sumaria reported, citing a source in the security forces of Ninewa province. Earlier it became known about the liberation of the Al-Malain, Al-Samakh, Al-Khadra, Kirkukli, Al-Quds, Al-Karama and Kokdzhali neighborhoods.

Since the operation began on October 17, 2016, the Iraqi army has killed more than 2,000 militants, Brigadier General Najm al-Jabouri said on Monday.

The press service of the Iraqi armed forces also reported that the leader of the Islamic State (IS) banned in Russia, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and his family fled the city. In parallel, Kurdish Peshmerga formations continue to successfully clear nearby settlements.

However, according to the Russian military, no significant results were achieved in the first three weeks, a high-ranking source in the Russian Ministry of Defense explained to Gazeta.Ru.

In fact, preparations for the coalition operation began six months before this date, he clarifies. According to the interlocutor, more than 3 thousand military personnel and service personnel from the United States alone are involved in the liberation of the city.

“All actions are carried out in a hurry, the operation is poorly planned,” the interlocutor insists. “Everything went well as the coalition forces advanced through the desert areas. However, the first serious clashes with IS militants in the suburbs of Mosul led to the retreat - almost flight - of the Iraqi elite unit.”

Only a few buildings on the outskirts of the city were left in the hands of the government army.

The Pentagon has already sent units from the 101st Airborne and 1st Mechanized Divisions of the US Armed Forces into battle. In addition, the Americans are transferring 1.7 thousand paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division to Iraq, the American portal Military.com reported last week, continues an interlocutor close to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense.

According to him, the active participation of US troops in the assault on Mosul has already led to heavy losses.

“As a result of the fighting on the outskirts of the city alone, 20 Americans were killed, and the number of wounded reached 32. At the same time, there were those killed as a result of so-called friendly fire - from airstrikes by US Air Force B-52H aircraft,” the Russian military assures.

An attempt to clear the city with the help of massive fire raids and airstrikes only led to massive casualties among the civilian population. “It is already obvious that operations in Mosul and Raqqa cannot have a victorious continuation in such a context. It is obvious that the assault on Mosul will drag on until the spring of next year,” the source at the Ministry of Defense is confident.

However, on Sunday, the US-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the main backbone of which is the Syrian Kurdish militia (YPG), launched an offensive on the second capital of the Islamic State - Raqqa in northern Syria. According to SDF leaders, at least 30 thousand people are taking part in Operation Wrath of the Euphrates. The attack is supported by the US coalition from the air.

But even here the Americans have not had any serious success, assures the interlocutor at the Ministry of Defense.

“The offensive on Raqqa has not yet really begun. The real progress of the “Syrian Democratic Forces”, created by the Americans, is noted only where the IS formations, avoiding clashes, retreat on their own,” the source notes. In his opinion, the story is reminiscent of the initial stages of the Vietnam War, when the American leadership hoped to quickly put an end to “a small handful of communists”, but as a result they got stuck in a bloody war for two decades.

“As a result, American soldiers become “cannon fodder”, dying far from their homeland for the interests of big capital that are alien to ordinary US citizens,” says Gazeta.Ru’s interlocutor.

Taking into account the fact that the government has changed in the United States, and there are many other important issues on the agenda, the operation in Mosul will drag on for many months, military expert, reserve colonel Viktor Murakhovsky agrees with this opinion.

He noted that the Americans hoped for a quick capture of the city by the Iraqi forces they had trained, but nothing happened: the first weeks of the offensive showed that the pace was very low and the losses were significant.

“Now everything will depend on what kind of team Trump will form around himself. The main issue is the military establishment.

What is important here is not even who becomes the Minister of Defense. The most interesting thing is who will join the command: which generals, who will take the post of chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee, who will become the new chiefs of staff of the army, navy and air force. They are the ones who determine real operations and their concepts,” Murakhovsky emphasized.

Donald Trump will be inaugurated in January. Until this point, current President Barack Obama will continue to serve as head of state.

Trump will also take a lot of time to establish connections, predicts Vladimir Avatkov, associate professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and director of the Center for Oriental Studies.

“Hillary Clinton had great contacts with Saudi Arabia and with individual leaders in Turkey. Donald Trump does not have such significant contacts. Now he will build a fundamentally new line in relation to the countries of the region. He has repeatedly emphasized a certain skepticism regarding the policy of the previous administration regarding the Middle East, so we should expect certain changes in this direction, but this will take time,” the orientalist said.

On Tuesday, Gazeta.Ru learned that the aircraft carrier group of the Northern Fleet of the Russian Navy, which arrived on the shores of Syria, led by the heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov and the heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser Pyotr Velikiy, was preparing to strike positions “in the next 24 hours.” militants in the Aleppo area. It was planned to use the latest weapons, including Caliber cruise missiles.

However, the blow has not yet been struck. In an interview with Gazeta.Ru, First Deputy Head of the Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security Franz Klintsevich called this “complementary behavior of the Russian leadership in the context of Donald Trump becoming president.” “This is a signal of the need to conduct consultations,” the senator explained.

Donald Trump himself is committed to cooperation, says senior researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, author of the book “Understanding Russia in the USA. Images and myths" Victoria Zhuravleva.

She noted that the Kerry-Lavrov diplomatic channel, which was created on the initiative of Barack Obama, did not lead to a resolution of the conflict. There is no agreement between Moscow and Washington at the level of military structures. That is why the Syrian conflict is turning into an increasingly greater disaster, Zhuravleva explained.

All Gazeta.Ru’s interlocutors agree that the new president will be able to take control of the security forces. However, the important point is that Trump has set a clear goal: fighting terrorism and reducing US foreign involvement.

“How he will find this balance between these two things is a very serious question, which will largely depend on the team that Trump will assemble after he takes office,” Zhuravleva concluded.

In turn, Gazeta.Ru’s interlocutor at the Ministry of Defense expressed hope that in the near future US policy in the Middle East will change dramatically due to the fiasco of the Americans and their trained allies in Mosul.

According to the Russian military, international terrorism in Syria and Iraq can only be defeated together, effectively coordinating our actions with close cooperation of all interested parties. “We remind our colleagues from the United States of this,” the interlocutor concluded.

After the end of the “election race” to Mosul, the pace of the offensive dropped and the military had the opportunity to act wisely, and not rush head-on into residential areas to wash themselves with blood and delight the caliphates with various trophies.

The operation to capture Mosul from the third week of November finally fell apart into three components:

1. A direct assault on Mosul from the east, which should be supported by an attack from the south, when 2 mechanized brigades locked in battles on the banks of the Tigris south of Mosul finally deign to approach the southern outskirts of the city.

2.Advancement of Peshmerga Kurds from the north and northeast of Mosul. The Peshmerga is in no hurry to get involved in urban battles, but simply ensures the compression of the encirclement and the increase in the territory of Iraqi Kurdistan.

3.The operation to close the ring around Mosul, which last week was crowned with success, after a month after the start of the movement, advanced mechanized groups reached Tal Afar.

Of course, the current situation at the front suggests that the Pentagon’s January plan for the liberation of Mosul was completely thwarted - the simultaneous exit of coalition troops to the city from all directions did not work, it was not possible to launch a simultaneous assault from different directions, and there was no uprising inside Mosul against the Caliphate either. waited. With grief in half, they were only able to surround Mosul. At the same time, October estimates related to the imminent capture of Mosul in November or even the presidential elections in the United States did not come true. According to more pessimistic November estimates, complete cleansing of the Mosul cauldron could take from 2 to 5 months.

Reasons for the discrepancy between US plans and reality:

1.Underestimation of the level of resistance of the Caliphate. The “Blacks” have traditionally shown themselves competently in defense, skillfully using the tactics of ambushes and sudden counterattacks where necessary - they do not waste troops in vain, but try to wage an economical maneuverable war. But last year, a number of American generals pointed out that underestimation of the military components of the Caliphate’s military machine is one of the reasons for the failures in Iraq. Certain progress in this regard has certainly emerged in the United States - as part of planning for 2016, the military considered the Caliphate no longer as an ordinary terrorist group, but as a quasi-state with its own armed forces, which require an approach at the level of fighting industrial-type armies.

2. The heterogeneity of the coalition and its contradictions. The difference in interests of the United States, Iran, the Kurds and the Iraqi government has led to the fact that the operation is developing unevenly. The Peshmerga are accomplishing their tasks and are in no hurry to get involved in urban battles in the north while the Iraqi army is bleeding in the eastern neighborhoods. The United States provides the Iraqis with artillery and air support, but is also in no hurry to throw paratroopers and special forces units into the meat grinder of street fighting. The Shiite militia, in addition to providing the front, did not miss the opportunity to settle scores with the Sunnis in the liberated territories, which of course affects the level of resistance of the “blacks”, as well as their receipt of support among the population.

3.Failure of attempts to cause the collapse of the Mosul defense. It has not yet been possible to prepare and carry out an uprising of the local population in Mosul. Attempts to reach an agreement with the Caliphate so that it would leave Mosul for Syria were leaked as a result of a well-known leak and the potential “fifth column” was simply slaughtered by the Caliphate so that others would be discouraged from surrendering Mosul to the Americans.

4. Protracted encirclement. Due to the fact that the resistance on the western bank of the Tigris turned out to be stronger than expected, it was not possible to ensure the encirclement of Mosul on the immediate approaches. The strike group had to move for almost a month through the desert to Tal Afar in order to close the encirclement ring with the Peshmerga there. But we still have to clear the territory between Tal Afar and Mosul, which could also take weeks, if not more.

As a result, the operation to take Mosul from beautiful and swift, when the arrows quickly ripped open the defenses of the Caliphate and united in the center of Mosul, turned into an indistinct something that develops only due to the overwhelming superiority in people and equipment, with heavy losses and without any operational beauty . For more than a month of fighting, the Caliphate lost about 2100-2300 killed and wounded, coalition losses reach 4500-4700 killed and wounded (among which there are several dozen NATO soldiers). In terms of technology, the Caliphate lost up to 12 tanks, up to 25 armored fighting vehicles and about 60 carts. Ammunition depots were also lost in the Tal Afar area and in cities on the banks of the Tigris south of Mosul. However, given the rich reserves in Mosul itself and the systematic influx of trophies, the militants do not yet foresee any special problems with ammunition. Coalition losses amount to about 35-40 destroyed and damaged tanks, more than 350 different armored personnel carriers (infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, MRAPs, armored dozers, Humvees). As usual, the lion's share of losses was due to attacks by suicide bombers, but the effectiveness of mobile anti-tank groups was also a very unpleasant surprise. Civilians also suffer serious losses, both as a result of bombing and fighting in residential areas, and as a result of the ongoing mass executions of non-Lolyans by the “blacks”.

The military leadership of the Caliphate in Iraq (and, presumably, the Great Caliphate of Baghdadi) is located in Mosul and controls the defense of the city and surrounding areas. At the same time, as the cauldron around Mosul further shrinks, the influence of the Iraqi capital of the Caliphate on the overall management of the “black territories” will decrease, and Raqqa will become increasingly important, since from it it is still possible to manage both the Syrian and Iraqi territories in western Iraq . So, despite the torment of the Americans and Iraqis with Mosul, in the medium term, this will deal a strong blow to the state structure of the Caliphate and will be another step towards the military defeat of ISIS as a state. The problems with the assault on Mosul appear to stem from overly optimistic operational planning and the “political factor” that made the military hostage to the domestic political situation in the United States.

As highly qualified propagandists, the American elites know that victory, which must be “sold” to the people at the right time, must be simple and understandable. The elimination of bin Laden was just a typical example. And it doesn’t matter that after that “Al-Qaeda” not only did not go away, but even grew - it was still presented and perceived as an undoubted victory, because “terrorist No. 1” was eliminated! It was not supposed to think that this was not a person, but a position to which a terrorist who had previously been number two would immediately come.

And now, right before the elections, we urgently need the same pretentious, magnificent, but meaningless victory - the capture of the “capital of ISIS,” the city Mosul. By inappropriate analogy with conventional wars, people will decide that capturing the capital is identical to defeating the Islamic State*.

And it is already clear that this is not so. ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) will not go anywhere in the same way, its militants will simply occupy other territories and even, possibly, expand, as Al-Qaeda managed to do. However, American propaganda, of course, will not even think of explaining all this, but will present the capture of Mosul as a victory over ISIS. Just what you need for the elections. But the question is: will the Americans succeed in their plans?

Liberation of Mosul “television” and real – big difference

We often hear that since the Americans will not take into account civilian casualties, since all Western media will unanimously turn a blind eye to this, it will be possible to capture Mosul very quickly due to massive artillery shelling and the use of aviation. I think this is a big misconception. Yes, some special forces group will be able to quickly fight their way to the city center and hang an American flag over some local version of the Reichstag. He will hang there for a long time, maybe even the whole day. It is not difficult to guess how this theatrical gesture is equivalent to a full-fledged cleansing of the city.

But, of course, the picture for American television on the “liberation of Mosul” will be beautiful - what is required.

If we talk about a serious complete cleansing of Mosul, then the speed of achieving this goal depends on completely different factors. If you manage to negotiate with ISIS for money, their fighters will retreat en masse and a quick capture is theoretically possible. After all, ISIS is a creation of the United States, and they have enough of their own people there, there are channels of influence and negotiations. So the Americans hope to once again implement the old Anglo-Saxon principle, which is attributed to Lawrence of Arabia: “You can’t buy an Arab, but you can rent him.”

If not for one “but”: there is nowhere in particular to retreat from Mosul. Yes, the Americans deliberately left a free passage from the city towards Syria, but it is not clear why terrorists would flee there. The Pentagon’s intention is clear: move from Mosul towards Syrian Raqqa and become a headache there Bashara Assad and Russian VKS. Very beautiful and elegant from the point of view of American purposes:

a mass exodus of terrorists will enable the United States to capture Mosul in time for the presidential elections, and will also provide reinforcements for the Syrian militants, who have suffered heavy losses in recent months.

The problem is that terrorists, although very bad people, are by no means idiots. In addition, they do not think at all in terms of “before the elections” – “after the elections.” They understand that the exodus to Syria will not solve their problems, and on the contrary, it may worsen them. In Mosul, of course, it will now be very hot, and there are reasons to flee from there. But what’s the point of exchanging pain for soap and hiding in Raqqa, which has already been designated as the next target after the completion of the operation to liberate Aleppo? This is called “out of the frying pan and into the fire.” Although it’s calm in Raqqa for now, it’s clearly not for long. In addition, the “evil” Russian Aerospace Forces are flying over Syria, which, unlike the American coalition, bomb terrorists, and do not protect them, imitating the appearance of vigorous activity.

From here the obvious conclusion follows: it is much better for the militants to retreat either in the direction of North Africa,

Moreover, in Libya, for example, there are already territories that have already sworn allegiance to ISIS, or directly to Europe: just shave off your beard, stop waving the black flag and, with the money accumulated from robberies and murders, buy yourself a plane ticket to the Old World, and not sail across the Mediterranean Sea on inflatable boats, as desperate, penniless refugees do. Actually, money will open many roads, but terrorists have it.

Thus, the speed of taking Mosul directly depends on how effectively the terrorists can be removed from there, and this depends on whether the United States is willing to spend a lot of money on bribing them. In the end, escaping from your home to where everything has already been captured and divided is a dubious and costly undertaking. If the Americans are stingy, then there may not be anyone willing to go to Syria under bombs and compete with local ISIS fighters for a place in the sun and loot, or to flee through several countries. In addition, in addition to the financial factor, there is also such a simple point: many terrorists simply do not want to leave, and that’s all - neither to Syria nor anywhere else. And then a serious war for Mosul cannot be avoided.

This brings us back from the world of television pictures to the real world. Sticking an American flag somewhere under the cameras is a simple matter, but clearing a city, much less being able to hold it, is not an easy task.

It is unclear who should decide it. The Americans, in fact, were already in Iraq as occupation troops. They themselves did not like it, and they almost completely left. But the locals, as life has shown, could not cope with military threats. So the Americans will either have to return to Iraq for a long time and guard the captured Mosul there, or come to terms with the fact that the official authorities could very quickly lose control over it again.

The “retreat plan” prepared by the Pentagon, to put it mildly, suffers from flaws. Having stolen from Syria the experience of creating a local coalition, they involved the Iraqi army, Turkish units, and Kurdish troops in the assault on Mosul. Only after the Americans leave, such an “anti-terror team” is guaranteed to fight among themselves, because everyone has their own interests, sometimes opposing ones.

Turkey needs to block Iran's direct access to Syria. And the Kurds are more interested in confirming their status in Iraq than in far-reaching geopolitical prospects: it is not for nothing that they suspended their advance towards Mosul almost immediately after the start of the operation.

In this situation, the American plan to expel ISIS to Syrian Raqqa ceases to seem like a good idea at all: as soon as the coalition quarrels, it will be possible to return from Raqqa to Mosul just as quickly. Otherwise, American troops will have to sit in Iraq without leaving, which is obviously not planned, otherwise they would not have left there.

In addition, the rapid capture of Mosul has a downside. It is clear that they will try to present this as a lesson to Russia: here, they say, is how to fight terrorism quickly and “without casualties.” But in this case, one very awkward question will remain unanswered: if it was so simple, then what prevented the recapture of Mosul 3 years ago, when the pro-American anti-terrorist coalition in all its greatness arrived at the theater of operations? And what, then, has she been doing all these years?

Operation in Aleppo: pause before the end of the “cleansing”

Meanwhile, Russia continues to act slowly but consistently in Aleppo. Preparing for a decisive offensive, the command of the Russian armed forces, represented by the Minister of Defense, decided to give the terrorists the last opportunity to leave the city. At the same time, Russia's permanent representative to the UN Vitali Churkin added that anyone who does not do this will face death.

The most important thing is that it was right that they identified two corridors for these bandits. The biggest thing that makes me happy is that they started shaving their beards. They are on the right path to stay alive.

On the one hand, this step cuts the ground from under the feet of Russia's critics, which has some value, since today in Geneva, military experts from a number of countries begin work on Wednesday to separate terrorists and the opposition in Aleppo. On the other hand, from the point of view of preparing for a decisive assault on the city, this really makes sense, since it will reduce the number of remaining militants. Since Russia has no less reason not to delay the operation in Aleppo than the Americans have to take Mosul as quickly as possible, this “humanitarian pause” can be considered the last - and it has already been declared as the last chance for terrorists to leave the city alive.

It is obvious that after a pause in Aleppo and waiting for the results of the operation in Mosul, Syrian troops, with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, will continue to cleanse the city until the victorious end.

Ultimately, we become witnesses to an instructive clash of two opposing approaches to clearing large cities of terrorists. On the one hand, the cleansing of Aleppo by the Syrian army and the Russian Aerospace Forces, which has been going on for months: despite the flow of lies, Syria and Russia are acting very carefully, trying to minimize casualties among civilians.

In contrast to this, there is an attempt at a “cavalry charge” with the great hope that if all the media are “fed”, then there will be no need to worry about losses among the civilian population and the use of artillery and aviation very densely, due to which the city will be captured faster .

But this is where the risk arises that instead of a demonstrative victory, a demonstrative defeat may result, because in the conditions of dense urban development of a large city, even the most massive use of heavy weapons does not guarantee quick results.

Getting bogged down in positional battles in Mosul is a more than realistic prospect for Washington.

At the same time, the Russian-Syrian coalition is aimed at a constructive result - Assad wants to return the city under his control, and not raze it to the ground, and therefore acts based on this goal, and not on deadlines. But for the Americans, the clock is ticking, and they have no more than 3 weeks to do everything about everything - the elections are already on November 8th. And in such a short time, even the most severe bombing may not give the desired result.

So, leaving Mosul “for dessert,” Washington strategists seem to have taken too long. And the deadlines are already insufficient, and the composition of the coalition is as if it had been whipped together in a hurry. This approach makes very serious military failures possible. But even if it is possible to create the appearance of victory for a short period of time, it will dissipate very quickly.

* Terrorist organization banned on the territory of the Russian Federation

A month ago, on October 17, an international coalition led by the United States began an operation to liberate the Iraqi city of Mosul from terrorists. This Thursday it became known that Iraqi government troops and Shiite militia units recaptured the airport near the village of Tal Afar, 35 km southwest of Mosul, from Islamic State militants. This was reported by the As-Sumaria TV channel. The military reports that they have managed to completely block all escape routes from the country's second largest city. At the same time, east of Mosul the offensive slowed down significantly. Read more about the interim results of the campaign, which was accompanied by numerous civilian casualties, in the RT material.

• Reuters

Since the start of the operation, more than 400 airstrikes have been carried out on the city. During one of them, a school building in the south of the city was hit directly. More than 60 civilians became victims of attacks on the suburbs of Khaznah, Qaraqosh, Karakharab and Ash-Shura in October, and over 200 people were injured. The campaign to liberate Mosul has exacerbated the humanitarian situation, which continues to rapidly deteriorate. This is primarily due to the lack of doctors, medicines, food and basic necessities. At the same time, international humanitarian organizations are not allowed into the area of ​​operation.

“In the eastern direction, fighting is currently taking place only on the approaches to Mosul, and no significant advance of coalition troops towards the city has been recorded,” military expert Mikhail Khodarenok noted in an interview with RT. “Moreover, as a result of IS counterattacks, the withdrawal of coalition troops from previously occupied lines was even noted. Mosul is being stormed by a motley group: Iraqi government troops (29 thousand people), Kurdish Peshmerga self-defense forces (4 thousand people), Shiite and Sunni militias (up to 10 thousand people). Up to 500 American special forces, more than 200 Turkish and about 500 Italian troops are also taking part in the fighting. In such conditions it is very difficult to organize interaction. US special operations forces primarily work as target designators for the guidance of international coalition aircraft. At the same time, attacks on peaceful objects and urban infrastructure often occur. According to far from complete data, the number of casualties among civilians in Mosul is already 1 thousand people.”

• Reuters

Stuffed animals and mannequins

“It is very difficult to give an objective assessment of the progress of the assault on Mosul, since almost all the information provided to the media by the Iraqi command turns out to be untrue,” Anton Mardasov, head of the research department for Middle Eastern conflicts and armed forces of the region at the Institute for Innovative Development, told RT. — Journalists have been declared a blackout, with the exception of a few film crews, whose footage has flown all over the world, they are not allowed to the front line. Two weeks ago, Iraqi commanders proudly announced that government forces and militias had occupied six urban areas of Mosul, but in fact the Islamists drove them out soon after they entered. Such messages, of course, were made taking into account the American election campaign - in order to play along with the current president’s protege. Moreover, staging has become normal practice when filming videos. For example, a report from a battle zone shows how it was done in Fallujah, lying corpses, the waving flag of the Islamic State and a Shiite militia or Iraqi special forces fighter throwing it to the ground. But when we zoom in on the footage, we see that there are actually stuffed animals and mannequins lying there.”

• Reuters

The ground phase of the operation to liberate Mosul began on October 17. During this time, Shiite fighters managed to take control of a strategically important highway connecting the city with another stronghold of radicals in the region - Syrian Raqqa, and also blocked the Mosul-Tall Afar road. The airport, located 8 km south of Tal Afar, was controlled by IS extremists for about two years. The coalition command expects that successes in the western direction will accelerate the “liberation of Mosul,” which Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and US President Barack Obama solemnly promised to the UN General Assembly “by the end of the year.”

“Tall Afar Airport is located on the distant approaches to the city and it does not have any operational, much less strategic significance,” says Mikhail Khodarenok. “IS does not have its own aviation, and the air forces of the international coalition carry out strikes from completely different bases and will not use this airfield under any circumstances; it can only be suitable for army helicopters.” It’s hard to say whether coalition forces will take Mosul by the New Year or not. Still, the version cannot be completely ruled out that there are some kind of agreements between the commanders of the armed forces of the Islamic State and the coalition, within the framework of which at a certain moment the Islamists will leave Mosul and go in an organized manner, along pre-agreed routes to the north of Syria and to the Deir er-Zor area "

• Representatives of the Shiite militia
• Reuters

All of Iraq is on fire

“The most unpleasant thing for the anti-terrorist coalition is that the radicals have activated all the “sleeping cells” in its rear, and now all the provinces of Iraq are on fire,” Anton Mardasov emphasized in a conversation with RT. — Already a week after the start of the assault on Mosul, both the Iraqi army and the Kurdish formations were forced to withdraw rotational reserves and send them to suppress armed attacks by Islamists in their rearguard. This slowed down the entire advance. The operation to capture Mosul is often compared to the situation around Syrian Aleppo. But in Aleppo there are more or less clearly defined positions of militants and government troops, and certain areas there are not subject to air bombing, since there is a risk of so-called friendly fire covering the allies. In Mosul and its environs, pockets of resistance to the Islamic State are scattered throughout various residential areas.”

On Wednesday, the editors of Sputnik Arabic received a document prohibiting IS militants from shooting down planes of the air force of the international coalition led by the United States. The order was signed by local militant leader Abu Muawiya. It was discovered in the Iraqi city of Bakhdida, liberated from militants, 32 km from Mosul. “It is strictly prohibited to shoot down any aircraft in the air with any guns, regardless of its altitude, even if the aircraft has landed on the roof of a house,” Sputnik Arabic cites the text of the order.

• Reuters

“The Americans initiated the assault on Mosul before the presidential elections in the United States,” Ivan Konovalov, head of the military policy and economics sector of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, told RT. “They needed tactical success to increase Hillary Clinton's chances of winning. At the same time, they, of course, did not count on a quick capture of the city. Coalition forces surrounded Mosul and entered the outskirts, which was loudly reported. But now heavy fighting has broken out in the residential area. Kurdish detachments could have a noticeable influence on the course of hostilities in Mosul, but, according to the agreements of the coalition members, they are not allowed to enter the city, because there is a danger of ethnic cleansing. The Kurds have their own reckoning with Sunnis and Islamic State militants. The same situation actually exists in a mirror image in the Iraqi army: there are mainly Shiites there, and Sunnis are settled in the city. They may not all support the militants, but they understand that as soon as the Islamists are driven out of there, they will have serious problems. There are street battles in the suburbs, the air force is attacking whatever targets it wants, civilians are getting hit by these attacks, but where should they go - to the Shiites? And what fate awaits them there?

Andrey Loschilin, Vladimir Smirnov

* “Islamic State” (IS) is a terrorist group banned in Russia.