What if there had been no First World War. “The third world war is inevitable, but there will be no direct conflict” Was the Russian army good?

On June 28, 1914, the heir to the Austrian throne, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, was assassinated in Sarajevo. A month later, Europe entered a war on a scale never before seen. The First World War ultimately caused enormous geopolitical changes.

Could this happen?

There is an opinion that if the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand had returned from Sarajevo safe and sound (or at least just alive), then there would have been no war. But this is a misconception. The Sarajevo murder was the pretext, but not the cause, of the global conflict that broke out in the summer of 1914. The reasons must be sought in the field of geopolitics. Six or seven powers divided the world into spheres of influence, and their interests came into sharp conflict. And by the time of the death of Franz Ferdinand, tensions in world politics could already be cut with a knife. It has been growing since the end of the 19th century. And all that was needed for the explosion was a reason. Franz Ferdinand had a much better chance of surviving in Sarajevo than Europe had of avoiding war.

Wilhelm II. (wikipedia.org)

If we return to the Bosnian events, the death of the Archduke was, by and large, a chain of tragic accidents. I knew very well that an undeclared terrorist war had been going on in the Balkans for several years now. That supporters of the liberation of Bosnia from Austria-Hungary (or rather, champions of the rights of Orthodox Serbs who turned out to be subjects of Franz Joseph) are preparing assassinations on almost every high-ranking Austrian who enters their territory. It was because of this that the Archduke canceled his visit to Sarajevo twice. I could have canceled it a third time, because the reason was nonsense - to attend maneuvers and open a museum. Finally, by the time of the murder it was already completely clear that the life of the heir to the Austrian throne was in danger, for one attack attempt had already failed. Moreover, Princip could also have missed, and the wounded Franz Ferdinand could have survived if help had arrived in time. But this does not negate the main thing. There would have been a reason anyway. Not in June 1914, but in August or autumn. War was inevitable, and the Sarajevo murder only brought it closer. Moreover, a month passed between the death of the Archduke and the declaration of war. The powers tried to agree on something, but, obviously, they were already at the stage when it was impossible to agree.

Geopolitics

The situation in Europe at the time of the death of Franz Ferdinand was tense to the limit. As mentioned above, the leading powers have actually already divided the world either into their own possessions or into spheres of influence. America, where most countries achieved independence by the middle of the 19th century, did not fall into the division zone. But all other territories from the Atlantic Ocean to the International Date Line, plus Oceania, were divided to one degree or another. Even formally independent countries were under someone's influence, either political or economic. The only exception, perhaps, was Japan, which managed to overcome external pressure thanks to the famous reforms. A couple of simple examples: independent Bulgaria had, with a completely Orthodox population, a Catholic king dependent on the German Empire; independent Persia in 1910 was divided into spheres of influence by Russia and Great Britain.

The agreement, in essence, was a division; the Persian side was not expected to participate in it in any way. However, the most telling example is China. The Celestial Empire was torn apart by the great powers in 1901 after the Yihetuan uprising. It was suppressed by a coalition of Russia, Japan, Great Britain, France, the USA, Germany, Italy and Austria-Hungary. The contingent of the last two countries was 80 and 75 people, respectively. Nevertheless, Italy and Austria-Hungary, along with everyone else, took part in the signing of a peace treaty, as a result of which China, while maintaining formal independence, became a zone of economic interests of eight countries at once.

Nicholas II, George V and the Belgian King Albert. (wikipedia.org)

When all the territories have already been divided and eaten, only one question arises: when will the dividers get involved in conflict with each other. The Great Powers apparently had future conflict in mind. It is not for nothing that global geopolitical alliances were concluded long before the war. : Great Britain, France, Russia and : Germany and Austria, which were later joined by Bulgaria. All this laid a powder keg under a peaceful Europe. However, Europe was not peaceful anyway. She fought constantly and continuously. The goal of each new campaign, albeit a very small one, was the desire to chop off a certain number of square kilometers for a sphere of influence. However, something else is important: each power had an interest that ran counter to the interests of the other power. And this made another conflict inevitable.

Inevitable

The governments of Austria, Germany, the Ottoman Empire, Russia, Great Britain and France were interested in war with each other, because they saw no other way to resolve existing disputes and contradictions. Great Britain and Germany divided East and South-West Africa. At the same time, Berlin did not hide the fact that it supported the Boers during the war, and London responded to this with an economic war and the creation of an anti-German bloc of states. France also had many claims against Germany. Part of society demanded military revenge for humiliation in the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-1871, as a result of which France lost Alsace and Lorraine. Paris sought their return, but Germany would not give up these territories under any circumstances. The situation could only be resolved by military means. Plus, France was dissatisfied with Austrian penetration into the Balkans and regarded the construction of the Berlin-Baghdad railway as a threat to its interests in Asia.

Franz Joseph. (wikipedia.org)

Germany demanded a revision of Europe's colonial policy, constantly demanding concessions from other colonial powers. Not to mention the fact that the empire, which existed for just over forty years, sought to dominate, if not all of Europe, then at least its continental part. Austria-Hungary had huge interests in the Balkans and perceived Russian policies aimed at protecting the Slavs and Orthodox Christians in Eastern Europe as a threat. In addition, Austria had a long-running dispute with Italy over trade in the Adriatic Sea. In addition to the Balkans, Russia also wanted to gain control over the straits between the Black and Mediterranean Seas. The number of mutual claims and conflict situations suggested only one way out of the situation - war. Imagine a communal apartment. Six rooms, each of which houses a family of well-armed men. They have already divided the hallway, kitchen, toilet and bathroom and want more. The question is, who will control the entire communal apartment? At the same time, families cannot agree with each other. What will happen in such an apartment? War. All I needed was a reason. In the case of Europe, this occasion was the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. If it weren't for him, there would have been another reason. This, by the way, is shown quite convincingly by the negotiations that took place in July 1914. The great powers had a month to come to an agreement, but they did not even try to do so.

A little fantasy

But let's say a miracle happened. The great powers somehow came to an agreement and resolved all disputes peacefully. Let's try to imagine what would happen next.

Slowdown of technological progress. As sad as it may be, the First World War significantly spurred the development of technical thought. It's not just about tanks and submarines. We are talking about the rapid development of transport in general, and especially mechanical engineering and aviation. Afterwards, cars and airplanes ceased to be perceived as a curiosity. They have become everyday life. Companies involved in the production of cars literally got rich during the war years. They earned money for decades to come, having received gigantic opportunities to implement quite expensive projects. This is not to mention all sorts of concessions. For example, about tax breaks for Renault, whose products greatly helped France during the First World War.

Raymond Poincare. (wikipedia.org)

Reduced US role

The only country that really benefited a lot from the First World War was the United States of America. The USA behaved simply filigree. They did not enter the war until 1917, but, having joined the Entente in the final stages, they received the status of a victorious country. By the way, instead of Russia, which emerged from the war. The United States avoided enormous military expenditures and colossal losses of life. Their economy grew and began to play a very significant role in the world. But the status of the winner allowed them to change the system of international relations in their favor - President Woodrow Wilson lobbied for the creation, which was beneficial to the United States much more than to Great Britain and France. In 1922, Washington imposed on Japan, also a victorious country, an agreement to reduce its armaments in the Pacific Ocean.

The age of empires would continue. The First World War destroyed four very large powers from the inside - Russia with Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire and the very young. It is likely that these countries would have maintained their monarchy to this day if not for the First World War.

There would not have been a Second World War either. When the famous Marshal Foch saw the draft peace treaty with Germany, he said: “This is not peace, but a truce for ten years.” The marshal was mistaken by 11 years, which does not negate his rightness. The Second World War is a logical continuation of the First World War. Its causes grow out of the consequences of the Great War.

Dmitry, imagine the situation. One of the top officials of the Russian Federation is killed in Simferopol. After some time, clear and irrefutable evidence of the organization of the murder by Ukrainian military intelligence officials appears.

Personally, I do not at all sympathize with the policy of the Kremlin sages in relation to the neighboring state. I am not a Crimean nashiist either. But in such a case, the harshest reaction of the Russian leadership would be understandable to me.

The same thing happened in Sarajevo. It turned out that the traces of the organizers of the crime lead to Belgrade. And that a terrorist attack was being prepared directly by military intelligence officials. Please note: the ultimatum contains specific names. Moreover, the main criminal - "Apis" Dimitrievich - is not mentioned there. Probably his role was not yet known.

And how do you think the Austro-Hungarians should have reacted? To say: you killed our heir there, don’t do that again, okay? It is noteworthy that all points: stop hostile propaganda, stop, arrest - were accepted by Belgrade. Point 6, which became a stumbling block, required guarantees that the investigation would be complete and comprehensive and that the main culprits would not escape punishment. And there was nothing criminal, offensive, or unprecedented in the demand for a joint investigation. However, the Serbian government was more afraid of its extremists than of war.

Answer

As for the “couple of corpses” - you remembered World War II. But everything happened differently there. Tensions had been building for months, and Hitler's attack on Poland was clearly a matter of time. It was different in 1914. Like a bolt from the blue - the murder of the Archduke and his wife - also a “couple of corpses”, but what kind! An ultimatum - not immediately, not on the next, and not on the third day - this would be the case if only they had waited for an excuse. By the way, the EU would need a pretext - it was available for several months of the events in question, when Serbia sharply expanded after the Balkan wars. But then the conflict was somehow resolved. Just like the Agadir crisis three years earlier. In reality, no one wanted war. It was the result of a successful (for them) provocation of Serbian nationalists. And also a coincidence of circumstances. The prince did not leave Sarajevo on time - after his miraculous escape from the first terrorist attack. The car took a wrong turn.

Answer

About “a couple of corpses” I’m talking about WWII. Dmitry, you’re right, the car with the Archduke got lost, and this guy Gavrila was actually chewing a sandwich. And then the Erz-Duke and his wife, so he fired with a pistol, both on the spot. It is clear that it is a coincidence. But....
A long correspondence and negotiations began between Prussia and Austria-Hungary. As far as I remember, it was Prussia that pushed for the ultimatum. She also said that if something happened, she would support him in the war, even if Russia joined it.

Answer

Prussia, or more precisely, Germany (2nd Reich), in any case, had to enter the war after the Russian attack - based on the allied obligations assumed. There are different information about “nudging”. They wrote that. they say, Wilhelm demanded that Serbia be punished without fail. But there is information that the Kaiser considered the Serbian response to the ultimatum quite satisfactory, and breathed a sigh of relief - they say, there will be no war. In any case, until the last moment Berlin tried to persuade St. Petersburg to cancel the mobilization it had begun. I read somewhere that the Kaiser promised the Tsar to influence Austria-Hungary in terms of ending hostilities against Serbia. And Nikolai seemed to agree, but the boss dissuaded him. General Staff Zhilinsky, or Danilov, Quartermaster General: they say, the machine is running, if you stop it, a new mobilization, if something happens, will be difficult to start.

Answer

On July 29, the Kaiser sent a telegram to Nicholas, saying that he was using his last strength to keep Austria-Hungary out of the war.
On July 30th, the Kaiser declares that in order for the Serbs to fulfill their promise, the Austrians need to occupy Belgrade.
On the 31st, the Kaiser announces an ultimatum to Russia, demanding an end to mobilization. On the 31st, an ultimatum to France on neutrality.
On the afternoon of August 1, Nicholas II telegraphed Wilhelm:
“I understand that you must mobilize your troops, but I wish to have on your part the same guarantees that I gave you, that is, that these military preparations do not mean war and that we will continue negotiations ... Our long-tested friendship must God's help to prevent bloodshed. I look forward to your answer with impatience and hope. Niki."
On the evening of August 1st, the German Ambassador presented a note declaring war.

From these events, in my opinion, it clearly follows that it was the Kaiser who crossed the line...

Regarding the ongoing mobilization of Russia:
On the morning of July 29, the Russian emperor in Peterhof simultaneously signed two alternative decrees: one on partial and the other on general mobilization. He instructed the Chief of the General Staff, General Yanushkevich, to consult with Foreign Minister Sazonov and “publish the decree that Sazonov deems necessary.” A meeting of the Council of Ministers was held, with the participation of General Yanushkevich, at which Yanushkevich announced the emperor’s decision to announce partial mobilization the next day. However, Yanushkevich said that if a general mobilization was carried out a day after the partial announcement, “schedules for the transportation of military trains and ... deployment of troops will be hopelessly mixed up and mobilization will be 10 days late.” As a result, the Council of Ministers decided to postpone the issuance of a decree on partial mobilization and “wait for further developments of events.” in the evening, a meeting was held in the office of General Yanushkevich with the participation of Sazonov and Minister of War Sukhomlinov, which came to the conclusion that “in view of the low probability of avoiding war with Germany, it is necessary to prepare for it in a timely manner in every possible way, and therefore one cannot risk delaying the general mobilization later by carrying out a partial mobilization now.” " The conclusion of the meeting on the need for general mobilization was immediately reported by telephone to the emperor, who expressed consent to issue the appropriate orders.

Answer

Again, it is clear that desperate attempts have been made in recent days to avoid war. If the Sarajevo murder was just a pretext, the parties, as you wrote, were only waiting for the “strike of the gong,” then why these ceremonies? Gave the order - and forward! Here the king hesitates, does not want to take extreme measures, the generals are pushing him towards them. The Kaiser also persuades, they say, “it’s not too late for us to stop”... Nikolai’s position - we are mobilizing troops, but still let’s be friends, not fight - is very absurd. Why mobilize then? To show off, in the language of a certain social group? The Kaiser, who in his ultimatum put forward a specific demand - to stop mobilization by August 1st, otherwise war - also could not back down without being branded a star-struck man.

Both sides are to blame not for looking for conflict and expecting only a pretext, but for not doing everything to prevent the war. First of all, put more pressure on our partners - Russia on Serbia, Germany on Austria-Hungary. But the first move here should have been Russia.

Answer

Dmitry, you apparently forgot. Just recently, someone slapped the Russian ambassador right in front of the cameras. AND??? Is Russia already at war with this country? Has the Russian Federation put forward an ultimatum on draconian conditions?

And second, are we talking about WWI or what? Let's not appeal to the events in Simferopol, which has been in the Russian Federation since 2014))))

Answer

I am not appealing to the events in Simferopol. I draw an analogy with current realities. Sarajevo had also been part of Austria-Hungary for 6 years by that time. But then some people had serious questions and objections on this matter. Although the annexation of Bosnia was (unlike Crimea) universally recognized. I asked the question: what would be the reaction to a Ukrainian provocation on the same scale as the Serbian provocation in 1914?

But your analogies with the murder of the ambassador are clearly lame. 1) the ambassador is an important figure, but still he is not the heir to the throne 2) and most importantly: Karlov was killed by a lone terrorist, there was no information about the preparation of this crime by intelligence officers - Turkish, Ukrainian or any other - there was, is not and cannot be. While Princip and his accomplices were trained on the territory of Serbia, armed there, and transported across the border. 3) why did Turkey need to put forward an ultimatum when Ankara immediately, voluntarily fulfilled the most “draconian”, “unacceptable” condition for Serbia in 1914? I quote Wikipedia: “An agreement was reached between Putin and Erdogan on a joint investigation of the crime.” "The Main Directorate for Investigation of Particularly Important Cases of the Investigative Committee of Russia .... sent its own investigative team to Turkey." And no moaning about the “destroyed sovereignty” of the Turkish Republic.

The myth of “draconian conditions” was invented by Russian officialdom and was subsequently supported by Soviet and post-Soviet historians in order to relieve Serbia and Russia of blame for the tragic events that followed.”

Answer

I asked the question: what would be the reaction to a Ukrainian provocation on the same scale as the Serbian provocation in 1914?
In my opinion, a situation similar to 1914 between Ukraine and the Russian Federation would lead to a very serious diplomatic crisis. But it would not lead to open war. IMHO, but the hypothetical events in Ukraine have nothing to do with WWI.

Let's return to the demands of the "draconian" ultimatum. Point 6 was not accepted by Serbia. It reads: Conduct an investigation against each of the participants in the Sarajevo murder with the participation of the Austrian government in the investigation.

It was the very interpretation of the requirement that did not allow it to be accepted.
Here is point 6 of Serbia’s response to the ultimatum
6 ° The Royal Government, of course, considers it its duty to open an investigation into those who or who may have been involved in the plot of 15/28 June and who will be on the territory of the Kingdom. As regards the participation in this investigation of the organs of the Austro-Hungarian authorities, which would have been delegated for this purpose by the government of I. and R., the Royal Government cannot agree to this, p. since this would be a violation of the Constitution and the Criminal Procedure Act. However, in specific cases, the results of this instruction may be communicated to the Austro-Hungarian authorities.

Answer

Dmitry, I did not find the full text of the Serbian Constitution of 1903 online, so I cannot say which norms the Serbian authorities referred to (or tried to refer to). And there are no such links in the text of the answer. Therefore, suspicions arise that this, again, is a banal “excuse”. The main conspirators were too powerful. In addition, the Serbs hoped for help from Russia.

Answer

An important hour has arrived for Germany. Envious rivals everywhere force us to legal defense. The sword was handed over to us. I hope that in the event that my efforts to the very last moment do not bring our adversaries to reason and the preservation of peace, we can use the sword with the help of God so that we can embrace it again with honor. The war will require enormous sacrifices on the part of the German people, but we will show the enemy what it means to attack Germany. And therefore I commend you to God. Go to the churches, kneel before God and implore His help for our brave army.

If you read the telegrams of the Kaiser and the Tsar, I personally get the impression that Austria was the first to begin preparations for war, i.e. It was her actions that led to the mobilization of Russia, and in response an ultimatum to Germany. The question of who exactly pushed Austria remains open. But...

A letter in which Emperor Franz Joseph veiledly calls for war against Russia.
Quote, free translation:

There is no doubt that, according to the intentions of French and Russian diplomacy, these differences and rivalries can be resolved and a new Balkan alliance created. What could be the real goal of such a union in the current conditions for the Balkan states? There is no longer any reason to consider joint action against Turkey. Therefore it can be directed only against Austria-Hungary and can only be implemented on the basis of a program that must promise to all its members the expansion of territories through the gradual movement of their borders from east to west at the expense of the territorial integrity of the monarchy. It is impossible to imagine the unification of the Balkan states on any other basis, but on this basis it is not only not impossible, but also fairly realized.

Austria-Hungary's relations with Romania could at this moment be characterized by the fact that the Monarchy relied entirely on its alliance and these I'm ready to support you in every possible way Romania, if it arises casus foedoris, but this Romania unilaterally withdraws from its allied obligations and shows the monarchy only the prospect of neutrality. Even the neutrality of Romania is guaranteed to the monarchy only by the personal confirmation of King Charles [a guarantee], which, naturally, is of value only for the duration of his reign, and the achievement of this depends on the king's hand always being in charge. Direction of foreign policy....
Under these conditions, it is impossible to consider the alliance with Romania to be of sufficient confidence and degree to serve Austria-Hungary as a support in its Balkan policy....
Using the Balkans to destroy the military superiority of the two imperial powers is Russia's goal.
But while France seeks to weaken the Monarchy because it favors its ideas recovery, the plans of the king's empire have a much greater degree...
After all Russia recognized, that the connection of its plans in Europe and in Asia, plans that correspond to domestic needs, seriously affect the important interests of Germany and must inevitably provoke her to resistance.

Answer

Charter of the Serbian Kingdom.
Quote about the judiciary:
VIII. Judicial branch.
§ 146. The courts are independent. In the administration of justice they are subject to no authority except that of the law. No power in the state, neither legislative nor executive, can interfere in judicial matters, and in turn, judicial institutions cannot take part in the exercise of legislative and executive power. The right of court is administered in the name of the king.
§ 147. No judicial institution can be established, and no change in the organization or competence of the court can be made, except by virtue of law. In no case and on any basis is it permissible to establish extraordinary or summary courts or commissions for the administration of justice.

Answer

There is no mention of the preliminary at all.

Point 6 of the Serbian ultimatum
Conduct an investigation against each of the participants in the Sarajevo murder with participation in the investigation of the Austrian government.

It was the wording that was unacceptable; that’s how diplomacy works. Each phrase has a meaning and it can be interpreted very differently in the future. This phrase with the participation of the government can be interpreted in very different ways. This is precisely why Serbia gave a streamlined formulation to this point (see the text already cited above). It follows from the response that Serbia is ready to cooperate and transfer the results of the investigation to the Austrian government.

Austria considered that the ultimatum not fully accepted was casus belli, i.e. formal reason for declaring war. From that moment on, Austria actually crossed the red line. Franz Joseph understood very well that his war with Serbia would inevitably drag Russia into this conflict, and further down the chain.

Answer

Dmitry, I, of course, am not an expert in diplomacy, which, apparently, you are. Please explain why the demand for participation in the investigation by REPRESENTATIVES of the Austro-Hungarian government (von der k. und k. Regierung hiezu delegierte) in the original is unacceptable and unfounded? I repeat: representatives of the Russian government participated in the investigation into the murder of Ambassador Karlov - without any problems. .

It follows from the response that Serbia is ready to cooperate and transfer the results of the investigation to the Austrian government.

In your opinion, the Austro-Hungarian authorities should have allowed the main organizers of the murder to go unpunished?

Answer

Let's leave Karlov alone, his murder has nothing to do with WWI.

In your opinion, the Austro-Hungarian authorities should have allowed the main organizers of the murder to go unpunished?

Austria had the opportunity to refer the case to the international court in The Hague, which at that time already existed. In this case, Austria could save face, avoid war and punish those responsible. This option was proposed by Emperor Nicholas II.

It follows from the response that Serbia is ready to cooperate and transfer the results of the investigation to the Austrian government.

However, Austria considered that the ultimatum was not fully satisfied. And as you remember, she considered this a reason to start a war. From this postulate, I conclude that Austria only needed a pretext to declare war, and not negotiations and the search for those responsible for the murder.

And the government of Austria-Hungary had reasons not to trust the Serbs. For by that time it was known: Serbian officers took part in the conspiracy, and not ordinary ones, but very influential ones. Dimitrijevic is one of those to whom the Karadjordjevics owe their throne.
This doesn’t prove anything at all, but there was information. But they were not obtained as a result of an official investigation. As a result, this information had no value.

In August 1914, the world did not yet know how grandiose and catastrophic the war declared on the first day of the last summer month would become. No one yet knew what innumerable victims, disasters and shocks it would bring to humanity and what indelible mark it would leave on its history.
As a result of hostilities on an unprecedented scale, tens of millions of people were killed and maimed, four empires ended their existence - Russian, German, Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman, and an unimaginable amount of everything that had been created by people over hundreds of years was destroyed.

Introduction........................................................ ........................................................ ................3

1. The world on the eve of the First World War.................................................... ...................4

2. Russia in the First World War.................................................... ...............................6

3. Was the First World War inevitable.................................................... ............10

Conclusion................................................. ........................................................ ..........14

List of used literature......................................................... ...................16

The work contains 1 file

MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY OF INSTRUMENT ENGINEERING AND INFORMATION SCIENCE

In the discipline "Global Conflicts"

On the topic: “Was the First World War inevitable”

Student Gr. UP3 0822 Zamyatina L.N.

Moscow 2009

Introduction...................... ........................... ..................................... ................ ............. ...3

1. The world on the eve of the First World War.................................................... ............ .......4

2. Russia in the First World War.................................................... ............ ................6

3. Was the First World War inevitable............................................... ..... .......10

Conclusion.................... ............................. ........................... ................... .......... 14

List of used literature......................................................... ............. ......16

Introduction

As a result of hostilities on an unprecedented scale, tens of millions of people were killed and maimed, four empires ended their existence - Russian, German, Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman, and an unimaginable amount of everything that had been created by people over hundreds of years was destroyed.

In addition, the world war became one of the indisputable reasons for the revolutions that turned the life of Russia upside down - the February and October revolutions. Old Europe, which for centuries maintained a leading position in political, economic and cultural life, began to lose its leading position, giving way to the emerging new leader - the United States of America.

This war raised the question of the further coexistence of different peoples and states in a new way.

And in human terms, its price turned out to be unprecedentedly high - the great powers that were part of the opposing blocs and bore the brunt of the hostilities lost a significant part of their gene pool. The historical consciousness of peoples turned out to be so poisoned that for a long time it cut off the path to reconciliation for those of them who acted as opponents on the battlefields. The world war “rewarded” those who went through its crucible and survived, albeit driven inside, but constantly reminding themselves of their bitterness. People's faith in the reliability and rationality of the existing world order was seriously undermined.

1. The world on the eve of the First World War

At the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, the balance of power in the international arena changed dramatically. The geopolitical aspirations of the great powers: Great Britain, France and Russia, on the one hand, Germany and Austria-Hungary, on the other, led to unusually intense rivalry.

In the last third of the 19th century, the geopolitical picture of the world looked like this. The USA and Germany began to outpace and, accordingly, displace Great Britain and France in the world market in terms of economic growth rates, while simultaneously laying claim to their colonial possessions. In this regard, relations between Germany and Great Britain became extremely strained in the struggle both for colonies and for dominance in maritime areas. During the same period, two friendly blocs of countries were formed, which finally demarcated relations between them. It all started with the Austro-German alliance, formed in 1879 on the initiative of Chancellor Otto von Bismarck. Subsequently, Bulgaria and Türkiye joined this alliance. Somewhat later, the so-called Quadruple Alliance, or Central Bloc, emerged, which marked the beginning of a series of international treaties that led to the creation of an opposing Russian-French bloc in 1891-1893. Further, in 1904, Great Britain signed three conventions with France, which meant the establishment of the Anglo-French “Entente Cordiale” (This bloc began to be called the Entente in the early 1840s, when there was a short rapprochement in the contradictory relations of these two countries ). In 1907, in order to resolve colonial issues regarding Tibet, Afghanistan and Iran, a Russian-English treaty was concluded, which actually meant the inclusion of Russia in the Entente, or the “Triple Agreement”.

In the growing rivalry, each of the great powers pursued its own interests.

The Russian Empire, realizing the need to contain the expansion of Germany and Austria-Hungary in the Balkans and strengthen its own positions there, counted on recapturing Galicia from Austria-Hungary, without excluding the establishment of control over the Black Sea straits of the Bosporus and Dardanelles, which were in Turkish possession.

The British Empire aimed to eliminate its main competitor, Germany, and strengthen its own position as a leading power, maintaining dominance at sea. At the same time, Britain planned to weaken and subordinate its allies Russia and France to its foreign policy. The latter thirsted for revenge for the defeat suffered during the Franco-Prussian War, and most importantly, wanted to return the provinces of Alsace and Lorraine lost in 1871.

Germany intended to defeat Great Britain in order to seize its colonies rich in raw materials, defeat France and secure the border colonies of Alsace and Lorraine. In addition, Germany sought to take possession of the vast colonies that belonged to Belgium and Holland, in the east its geopolitical interests extended to the possessions of Russia - Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic states, and it also hoped to subordinate the Ottoman Empire (Turkey) and Bulgaria to its influence, after which, together with Austria -Hungary to establish control in the Balkans.

Aiming at achieving their goals as quickly as possible, the German leadership was looking in every possible way for a reason to unleash military action, and it was ultimately found in Sarajevo...

2. Russia in the First World War

June 15, 1914 In the city of Sarajevo, Serbian student terrorist Gavrilo Princip shot and killed the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife. In response to this murder, Austria-Hungary presented an ultimatum to Serbia on July 10, which contained a number of obviously unacceptable demands. Upon learning of this ultimatum, Russian Foreign Minister S. Sazonov exclaimed: “This is a European war!”

On the same day, a meeting of the Russian Council of Ministers took place. The country's military leadership considered it necessary to carry out general mobilization, conscripting 5.5 million people into the army. Minister of War V.A. Sukhomlinov and Chief of the General Staff N.N. Yanushkevich insisted on this in the hope of a fleeting (lasting 4-6 months) war.

Representatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry, who did not want to give the Germans a pretext to accuse Russia of aggression, were convinced of the need for only partial mobilization (1.1 million people).

Germany presented Russia with an ultimatum demanding general demobilization within 12 hours - until 12.00 on August 1, 1914.

In the evening of the said day, the German envoy F. Pourtales arrived at the Russian Foreign Ministry. Having heard a categorical “no” in response to the question whether Russia would stop general mobilization, Pourtales handed the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sazonov an official note declaring war.

Further events developed rapidly and inevitably. On August 2, Germany entered the war with Belgium, on August 3 - with France, and on August 4, official notification of the start of military action against it by Great Britain was received in Berlin. Thus, diplomatic battles in Europe gave way to bloody battles.

At first glance, there was no logic in the fact that the subsequent events of August 1914 unfolded according to a scenario that no one could have predicted. In reality, such a turn was predetermined by a number of circumstances, factors and trends.

From the very first days of August, the governments of the warring countries were faced with not only urgent tasks of uninterruptedly replenishing the existing armies with human resources and military equipment, but also no less pressing political and ideological problems.

The Russian leadership appealed to the patriotic feelings of its fellow citizens from the very first days of the war. On August 2, Emperor Nicholas II addressed the people with a Manifesto, in which the traditional love of peace of Russia was contrasted with the constant aggressiveness of Germany.

On August 8, at a meeting of the State Duma, representatives of most political parties and associations expressed feelings of loyalty to the emperor, as well as faith in the correctness of his actions and readiness, putting aside internal disagreements, to support soldiers and officers who found themselves at the front. The national slogan “War to a victorious end!” was taken up even by liberal-minded oppositionists, who quite recently advocated for Russia’s restraint and caution in foreign policy decisions.

In the wake of the rise of national patriotism, anti-German sentiments manifested themselves with particular vividness, expressed in the renaming of a number of cities (and above all St. Petersburg, which became Petrograd), and in the closure of German newspapers, and even in pogroms of ethnic Germans. The Russian intelligentsia was also imbued with the spirit of “militant patriotism”.

Many of its representatives actively participated in the anti-German campaign launched in the press at the very beginning of August, tens of thousands voluntarily went to the front.

And yet, the main factor that had a dramatic impact on the general situation that had developed in Europe by the end of August 1914 was an unforeseen change in the very nature of hostilities. According to the prevailing stereotypes and rules of wars of the 18th and especially 19th centuries, the warring parties hoped to determine the outcome of the entire war with one general battle. To this end, large-scale strategic offensive operations were conceived on both sides, capable of defeating the main enemy forces in the shortest possible time.

However, the hopes of the highest command of both warring blocs for a fleeting war did not come true.

Despite the fact that the August confrontation between the Entente and Germany on the Western Front reached great tension, in the end the Anglo-French and German forces stopped in front of each other’s fortified positions. The events of the same month on the Eastern Front also fully confirmed this trend.

The Russian army, being not yet fully mobilized and not ready to conduct large-scale operations, fulfilling its allied duty to France, nevertheless began to carry out offensive actions in the second half of August. The initially successful advance of Russian troops in East Prussia ultimately ended in failure. But, despite this, the very fact of the enemy’s invasion of the territory of the German Empire forced the German high command to hastily transfer large combat formations from west to east. In addition, by launching active operations in East Prussia, Russian troops diverted a significant part of the enemy forces to themselves. Thus, the plans of the German command to achieve a quick victory over France were crossed out.

Russian operations on the Southwestern Front, which also began in the second half of August, were more successful. The Battle of Galicia, which lasted over a month, in which the Russians defeated Austria-Hungary, was of enormous importance. And although our troops suffered huge losses (230 thousand people, of which 40 thousand were captured), the outcome of this battle allowed Russian troops not only to strengthen the strategic position on the Southwestern Front, but also to provide great assistance to Great Britain and France. At the critical moment of the Russian offensive for the Austro-Hungarians, the Germans were unable to provide significant assistance to their allies. For the first time, a misunderstanding arose between Berlin and Vienna regarding the general military plan.

According to the plans of the highest military command of the Entente and Germany, the strategic tasks of the unfolding war were to be resolved in the second half of August in the so-called Border Battle between the Anglo-French and German forces. However, this battle, which took place on August 21-25, also did not live up to the hopes placed on it. Its result was not only the strategic retreat of the entire northern group of Anglo-French troops, but also the fiasco of Germany. The German command was never able to achieve the goal set for its troops - to capture and defeat the main enemy forces. Thus, the task of quickly achieving successful results, which formed the basis of the German war plan, turned out to be unfulfilled.

In the new conditions, the general staffs of both Germany and the Entente had to radically revise previous plans, and this entailed the need to accumulate both new human reserves and material forces to continue further armed confrontation.

The nature of the fighting on the main fronts already in the first month of the war clearly showed that it would no longer be possible to localize the conflict that had broken out. The short-term maneuver stage ended, and a long period of trench warfare began.

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For decades, there has been a debate about responsibility for the outbreak of the First World War. Of course, we can put the question this way: the August drama of 1914 broke out in an incredibly complex interweaving of circumstances, events, and a bizarre combination of specific volitional decisions of the main “characters” of European politics and diplomacy. All these factors came into irreconcilable contradiction with each other, and it was possible to cut the “Gordian knot” that had arisen only by resorting to extreme measures, namely, unleashing an armed conflict on a global scale. The most experienced politicians immediately realized that attempts to limit the lightning-fast conflict to certain limits were completely hopeless.

It was clear that Russia could not allow the destruction of Serbia by Austria-Hungary. In the summer of 1914, an opinion was expressed in the diplomatic circles of the Entente countries: if Vienna provokes a war against Belgrade, this could lead to a pan-European war. However, considerations and statements (even the most true and profound) belonging to individuals who were hesitant about making a decision to start a war or feared its outbreak could not prevent a global catastrophe. Therefore, a more general question arises: who, from a long-term perspective, is to blame for the outbreak of the First World War?

In general, responsibility falls on all its active participants - both the countries of the Central Bloc and the Entente states. But if we talk about the blame for provoking the First World War precisely in August 1914, then it falls mainly on the leadership of the German and Austro-Hungarian empires. To prove this thesis, one should recall the events that preceded the outbreak of hostilities in Europe and try to explain the motives for the actions of representatives of the political, military and diplomatic elite of the opposing blocs.

The very fact of the Sarajevo murder gave Austria-Hungary and Germany a favorable opportunity to use this tragedy as a convenient pretext for war. And they managed to seize the initiative by starting active diplomatic activities aimed not at localizing, but at escalating the conflict.

Austria-Hungary did not find any serious grounds to connect the official circles of the Serbian state with the organization of the assassination attempt on the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne. But in Vienna they saw the existence of wide contacts between the Slavs living in the Habsburg Empire and those Slavs who were outside its borders.

The imperial leadership saw this as a real threat to the very existence of Austria-Hungary. The political elite, including the Austrian Prime Minister Count K. Stürgk, was confident that such “dangerous ties” could only be broken through war.

The Emperor of Austria-Hungary, Franz Joseph himself, was not an ardent enemy of Serbia and even objected to the annexation of its territory. But the rules of the geopolitical struggle for spheres of influence in the Balkans dictated their own - here the interests of Russia and Austria-Hungary collided. The latter, naturally, could not tolerate the strengthening of “Russian influence” in the immediate vicinity of its borders, which manifested itself, first of all, in the open support of Serbia by the Russian Empire. In addition, the leadership of Austria-Hungary did its best to prove that, despite the rumors spreading outside its borders about the weakness of the Habsburg monarchy (especially multiplied during the crisis period of the Balkan Wars for Vienna), it remained quite resilient and quite strong. The main argument in this tough polemic with the outside world, in the opinion of the Austro-Hungarian leadership, was active action in the international arena. And in this regard, Vienna, in order to prove its right to be strong, was ready to take extreme measures, even a military conflict with Serbia and its allies.

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Introduction

The First World War: background, progress, results.

1. The world on the eve of the First World War

2. Causes of the First World War

3. Russia in the First World War

4. Military-political results of the war.

Was the First World War inevitable?

List of used literature

Application

Introduction

There are many reasons why the First World War began, but various scientists and various records of those years tell us that the main reason is that Europe was developing very rapidly at that time. At the beginning of the twentieth century, there were no longer any territories around the world that were not captured by capitalist powers. During this period, Germany surpassed all of Europe in terms of industrial production, and since Germany had very few colonies, it sought to capture them. By capturing them, Germany would have new markets. At that time, England and France had very large colonies, so the interests of these countries often clashed. I chose this topic because I decided to figure it out:

What was the reason for this?

How did the war affect the course of history?

What technological advances occurred during the war?

What lessons did the participating countries learn from this war?

Why did the First World War serve as an impetus for the Second?

Target my job is to find out:

Was the First World War inevitable? It seems to me that this topic in itself is very interesting. Even when analyzing only companies, we come to different conclusions each time, and each time we extract something useful from these situations. During the First World War, it is possible to trace how the technical and economic development of each country developed. During the four years of war, we find how new technical means influence the course of the war, how the war helps scientific progress. The war even changes the idea of the army. The greater the economic and technological progress, the more murder weapons appear, the bloodier the war itself becomes, and the more countries become participants in this war. In August 1914, the world did not yet know how grandiose and catastrophic the war declared on the first day of the last summer month would become. No one yet knew what innumerable victims, disasters and shocks it would bring to humanity and what indelible mark it would leave on its history.

THE FIRST WORLD WAR: BACKGROUND, COURSE, RESULTS

1. The world on the eve of the First World War

In the last third of the 19th century, the geopolitical picture of the world looked like this. The USA and Germany began to outpace and, accordingly, displace Great Britain and France in the world market in terms of economic growth rates, while simultaneously laying claim to their colonial possessions. In this regard, relations between Germany and Great Britain became extremely strained in the struggle both for colonies and for dominance in maritime areas. During the same period, two friendly blocs of countries were formed, which finally demarcated relations between them. It all started with the Austro-German alliance, formed in 1879 on the initiative of Chancellor Otto von Bismarck. Subsequently, Bulgaria and Türkiye joined this alliance. Somewhat later, the so-called Quadruple Alliance, or Central Bloc, took shape, which marked the beginning of a series of international treaties that led to the creation of an opposing Russian-French bloc in 1891-1893. Further, in 1904, Great Britain signed three conventions with France, which meant the establishment of the Anglo-French “Concord of the Heart” - “Entente cordiale” (This bloc began to be called the Entente in the early 1840s, when there was a short period of conflicting relations between these two countries rapprochement). In 1907, in order to resolve colonial issues regarding Tibet, Afghanistan and Iran, a Russian-English treaty was concluded, which actually meant the inclusion of Russia in the Entente, or the “Tripartite Agreement.” First World War. M. 1993. Ryavkin A.

In the growing rivalry, each of the great powers pursued its own interests.

Aiming at achieving their goals as quickly as possible, the German leadership was looking in every possible way for a reason to unleash military action, and it was ultimately found in Sarajevo...

2. Causes of the first worldsoh war

The First World War arose as a result of the intensification of the political and economic struggle between the largest imperialist countries for markets and sources of raw materials, for the redivision of an already divided world. At the beginning of the twentieth century, the division of the world had already been completed, there were no territories left on the globe that had not yet been captured by the capitalist powers, there were no more so-called “free spaces” left. As a result of the uneven, spasmodic development of capitalism in the era of imperialism, some countries that took the capitalist path of development later than others quickly caught up and surpassed such old colonial countries as England and France in technical and economic terms. Particularly indicative was the development of Germany, which by 1900 had surpassed these countries in terms of industrial production, but was significantly inferior in the size of its colonial possessions. Because of this, the interests of Germany and England collided most often. Germany openly sought to capture British markets in the Middle East and Africa. Germany's colonial expansion was met with resistance from France, which also had huge colonies. Very sharp contradictions between the countries existed over Alsace and Lorraine, captured by Germany back in 1871. With its penetration into the Middle East, Germany created a threat to Russian interests in the Black Sea basin. Austria-Hungary, allied with Germany, became a serious competitor to Tsarist Russia in the struggle for influence in the Balkans. The aggravation of foreign policy contradictions between the largest countries led to the division of the world into two hostile camps and the formation of two imperialist groupings: the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy) and the Triple Agreement, or Entente (England, France, Russia). The war between the major European powers was beneficial to the US imperialists, since as a result of this struggle, favorable conditions emerged for the further development of American expansion, especially in Latin America and the Far East. American monopolies relied on maximizing benefits from Europe. In preparing for war, the imperialists saw in it not only a means of resolving external contradictions, but also a means that could help them cope with the growing discontent of the population of their own countries and suppress the growing revolutionary movement. The bourgeoisie hoped during the war to destroy the international solidarity of the workers, to physically exterminate the best part of the working class, for the socialist revolution. Due to the fact that the war for the redivision of the world affected the interests of all imperialist countries, most of the world's states gradually became drawn into it. The war became global, both in its political goals and in scale.

3. Russia in the First World War

Germany presented Russia with an ultimatum demanding general demobilization within 12 hours - until 12.00 on August 1, 1914.

Many of its representatives actively participated in the anti-German campaign launched in the press at the very beginning of August, tens of thousands voluntarily went to the front.

However, the hopes of the highest command of both warring blocs for a fleeting war did not come true.

In general, the events that unfolded in Europe in August 1914 demonstrated the inability of the then political and military leadership to keep the situation under control and prevent the world from sliding towards a global catastrophe. The nature of the fighting on the main fronts already in the first month of the war clearly showed that it would no longer be possible to localize the conflict that had broken out. The short-term maneuver stage ended, and a long period of trench warfare began.

Kacompany1914. In the literature, the tsarist government is traditionally accused of poorly preparing the Russian army and military industry for the First World War. And indeed, in terms of artillery, especially heavy artillery, the Russian army turned out to be worse prepared than Germany, in terms of the saturation of vehicles it was worse than France, the Russian fleet was inferior to the German one. There were shortages of shells, ammunition, small arms, uniforms and equipment. But in fairness, it must be said that none of the war planners in any general headquarters of any country imagined that it would last 4 years and 3 and a half months. Not a single country had weapons, equipment, or food for such a long period. The General Staffs expected a maximum of 3-4 months, in the worst case, six months. Accordingly, all sides sought to quickly launch offensive actions. The Germans were counting on a lightning campaign on the Western Front with the goal of defeating France, and then on actions against Russia, whose armed forces were supposed to be shackled by Austria. Russia, as can be seen from the memorandum of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian army led. book Nikolai Nikolaevich (uncle of Nicholas II), intended to launch an attack on Berlin by the forces of the Northwestern Front (commander Ya.G. Zhilinsky) and an attack on Vienna by the forces of the Southwestern Front (commander N.I. Ivanov). There were relatively few enemy troops on the Eastern Front at that time - 26 German divisions and 46 Austrian. The French armies did not plan an immediate offensive and were counting on the effect of the Russian offensive. The direction of a possible German attack was determined incorrectly by the French military command. Germany adhered to the "Schlieffen Plan", named after the long-time chief of the German General Staff, who died shortly before the war. She hoped to break through the weakly defended borders of Luxembourg and Belgium into France and force it to capitulate even before Russia concentrated its troops for a strike. A powerful group of German troops drove back the Belgian army and invaded France. The French and the English corps that landed on the northern coast of France were forced to retreat under pressure from superior forces. The enemy moved towards Paris. Emperor Wilhelm, calling for ruthlessness, promised to put an end to France in the fall. Mortal danger looms over France. The government temporarily left the capital. To save the allies, the Russian armies accelerated the preparation of the offensive and launched it with an incomplete deployment of all their forces. A week and a half after the declaration of war, the 1st and 2nd armies under the command of generals P.K. Rennkampf and A.V. Samsonov invaded East Prussia and defeated enemy troops during the Battle of Gumbinnen-Goldan. At the same time, forces were concentrated in the area of Warsaw and the new fortress of Novogeorgievsk for the main strategic attack on Berlin. At the same time, the offensive of the 3rd and 8th armies of the Southwestern Front against the Austrians began. It developed successfully and led to the occupation of the territory of Galicia (Lviv was captured on August 21). At the same time, the armies in East Prussia, without achieving coordination in their actions, were defeated piecemeal by the enemy. The defeat in East Prussia in August 1914 deprived Russian troops of activity in this area for the entire duration of the war. They now received only defensive tasks - to defend Moscow and Petrograd. The successful offensive in Galicia led to the fact that reserves for the Southwestern Front began to be withdrawn even from near Warsaw, parting with plans for an attack on Berlin. The center of gravity of the Russian army's operations as a whole is moving south, against Austria-Hungary. On September 12 (25), 1914, by order of Headquarters, the offensive on the Southwestern Front was suspended. In 33 days, Russian troops advanced 280-300 km, and reached the line of the Vistula River 80 km from Krakow. The powerful fortress of Przemysl was besieged. A significant part of Bukovina with the main city of Chernivtsi was occupied. Austrian combat losses reached 400 thousand people. Of these, 100 thousand were prisoners, 400 guns were captured. The Galician offensive operation was one of the most brilliant victories of the Russian army during the entire First World War. During October - November, two major battles took place on Polish territory: Warsaw-Ivanogodsky and Lodz. At times, over 800 thousand people took part in the battles on both sides. Neither side managed to completely solve their problems. However, in general, the actions of Russian troops were more effective. Although the attack on Berlin never materialized, the Western Allies, especially France, who were in dire straits, were given a respite. Due to the sending of part of the troops from France to the east, the Germans did not have enough strength for the planned bypass of Paris. They were forced to reduce the front of their offensive, and reached the Marne River northeast of Paris, where they encountered large Anglo-French forces. More than 1.5 million people took part on both sides in the Battle of the Marne in September 1914. French and English troops went on the offensive. On September 9, the Germans began retreating along the entire front. They were able to stop the advancing enemy only at the Aisne River. The government and diplomatic corps, who hastily fled to Bordeaux, were able to return to Paris. By the end of 1914, the Western Front had stabilized from the North Sea to the Swiss border. The soldiers dug into the trenches. War of maneuver turned into positional warfare. At the end of November 1914, at a meeting of the commanders of the fronts of the Russian army in Brest, it was decided to suspend offensive operations, and until January 1915, a lull reigned on the Eastern Front. Serbian troops waged a heroic struggle against the onslaught of the Austro-Hungarian army, which captured Belgrade twice in the fall of 1914, but in December 1914 the Serbs expelled the occupiers from the entire territory of Serbia and until the fall of 1915 waged a positional war with the Austro-Hungarian army. Turkish troops, instructed by German military specialists, launched an offensive on the Transcaucasian Front in the fall of 1914. However, Russian troops repulsed this offensive and successfully advanced in the Erzurum, Alakshert and Vienna directions. In December 1914, two corps of the Turkish army under the command of Enver Pasha launched an offensive near Sarakamysh. but here, too, the Russian army forced one corps to capitulate, and the second corps was completely destroyed. Subsequently, Turkish troops did not attempt to continue any active military operations. Russian troops also expelled the Turks from Iranian Azerbaijan: only some areas of Western Iran were retained by the Turks. By the end of 1914, on all fronts, the armies of both warring coalitions switched to protracted trench warfare. The war on the seas and oceans in the second half of 1914 essentially came down to a mutual blockade of the coasts. The first naval battle was the raid on August 28, 1914, by the English squadron of Admiral Beatty on German ships stationed in the bay of the island of Heligoland. As a result of this raid, three German cruisers and one destroyer were sunk, while the British only damaged one cruiser. Then two more minor battles took place: on November 1, 1914, in the Battle of Coronel off the coast of Chile, the English squadron was defeated by German ships, losing two cruisers, and on December 8, the English squadron defeated German ships off the Falkland Islands, completely destroying Admiral Spee's squadron. These naval battles did not change the balance of naval forces: the English fleet was still superior to the Austro-German one, which took refuge in the bays of the island of Heligoland, in Kiel and Wilhelmshaven. The Entente fleet dominated the oceans, North and Mediterranean seas, cutting off power to its communications. But already in the first months of the war, a great threat to the Entente fleet was revealed from German submarines, which on September 22 sank, one after another, three English battleships carrying out patrol duty on the sea routes. The pirate raid of "Goeben" and "Breslay" on the Black Sea coast of Russia did not produce significant results. Already on November 18, the Russian Black Sea Fleet inflicted severe damage to the Goeben and forced the Turkish fleet to take refuge in the Bosporus. The Russian Baltic Fleet was in the Gulf of Riga and the Gulf of Finland under a reliable minefield in the Baltic Sea. Thus, by the end of 1914, the failure of the military-strategic plan of the German command became obvious. Germany was forced to fight a war on two fronts. History: Directory/V.N. Ambarov, P. Andreev, S.G. Antonenko and others - M.: Bustard, 1998. Campaign of 1915. The Russian command entered 1915 with the firm intention of completing the victorious offensive of its troops in Galicia. There were stubborn battles for the capture of the Carpathian passes and the Carpathian ridge. On March 22, after a six-month siege, Przemysl capitulated with its 127,000-strong garrison of Austro-Hungarian troops. But Russian troops failed to reach the Hungarian plain. In 1915, Germany and its allies directed the main blow against Russia, hoping to defeat it and take it out of the war. By mid-April, the German command managed to transfer the best combat-ready corps from the Western Front, which, together with the Austro-Hungarian troops, formed a new shock 11th Army under the command of the German General Mackensen. Having concentrated on the main direction of the counteroffensive troops that were twice as large as the Russian troops, bringing up artillery that outnumbered the Russians by 6 times, and by 40 times in heavy guns, the Austro-German army broke through the front in the Gorlitsa area on May 2, 1915. Under the pressure of Austro-German troops, the Russian army retreated from the Carpathians and Galicia with heavy fighting, abandoned Przemysl at the end of May, and surrendered Lviv on June 22. Then, in June, the German command, intending to pincer the Russian troops fighting in Poland, launched attacks with its right wing between the Western Bug and the Vistula, and with its left wing in the lower reaches of the Narew River. But here, as in Galicia, the Russian troops, who did not have enough weapons, ammunition and equipment, retreated after heavy fighting. By mid-September 1915, the offensive initiative of the German army was exhausted. The Russian army was entrenched on the front line: Riga - Dvinsk - Lake Naroch - Pinsk - Ternopil - Chernivtsi, and by the end of 1915 the Eastern Front extended from the Baltic Sea to the Romanian border. Russia lost vast territory, but retained its strength, although since the beginning of the war the Russian army had by this time lost about 3 million people in manpower, of which about 300 thousand were killed. While the Russian armies were waging a tense, unequal war with the main forces of the Austro-German coalition, Russia's allies - England and France - on the Western Front throughout 1915 organized only a few private military operations that were of no significant importance. In the midst of bloody battles on the Eastern Front, when the Russian army was fighting heavy defensive battles, there was no offensive on the Western Front by the Anglo-French allies. It was adopted only at the end of September 1915, when the offensive operations of the German army on the Eastern Front had already ceased. Lloyd George felt the remorse of ingratitude towards Russia with great delay. In his memoirs, he later wrote: “History will present its account to the military command of France and England, which, in its selfish stubbornness, doomed its Russian comrades in arms to death, while England and France could so easily have saved the Russians and thus would have helped themselves best.” ". Having received a territorial gain on the Eastern Front, the German command, however, did not achieve the main thing - it did not force the tsarist government to conclude a separate peace with Germany, although half of all the armed forces of Germany and Austria-Hungary were concentrated against Russia. Also in 1915, Germany attempted to deal a crushing blow to England. For the first time, she widely used a relatively new weapon - submarines - to stop the supply of necessary raw materials and food to England. Hundreds of ships were destroyed, their crews and passengers were killed. The indignation of neutral countries forced Germany not to sink passenger ships without warning. England, by increasing and accelerating the construction of ships, as well as developing effective measures to combat submarines, overcame the danger hanging over it. In the spring of 1915, Germany, for the first time in the history of wars, used one of the most inhumane weapons - toxic substances, but this ensured only tactical success. Germany also experienced failure in the diplomatic struggle. The Entente promised Italy more than Germany and Austria-Hungary, which faced Italy in the Balkans, could promise. In May 1915, Italy declared war on them and diverted some of the troops of Austria-Hungary and Germany. This failure was only partially compensated by the fact that in the fall of 1915 the Bulgarian government entered the war against the Entente. As a result, the Quadruple Alliance of Germany, Austria-Hungary, Turkey and Bulgaria was formed. The immediate consequence of this was the offensive of German, Austro-Hungarian and Bulgarian troops against Serbia. The small Serbian army heroically resisted, but was crushed by superior enemy forces. The troops of England, France, Russia and the remnants of the Serbian army, sent to help the Serbs, formed the Balkan Front. As the war dragged on, suspicion and distrust of each other grew among the Entente countries. According to a secret agreement between Russia and its allies in 1915, in the event of a victorious end to the war, Constantinople and the straits were to go to Russia. Fearing the implementation of this agreement, on the initiative of Winston Churchill, under the pretext of an attack on the straits and Constantinople, allegedly to undermine the communications of the German coalition with Turkey, the Dardanelles expedition was undertaken with the aim of occupying Constantinople. On February 19, 1915, the Anglo-French fleet began shelling the Dardanelles. However, having suffered heavy losses, the Anglo-French squadron stopped bombing the Dardanelles fortifications a month later. On the Transcaucasian front, Russian forces in the summer of 1915, having repelled the offensive of the Turkish army in the Alashkert direction, launched a counteroffensive in the Vienna direction. At the same time, German-Turkish troops intensified military operations in Iran. Relying on the uprising of the Bakhtiari tribes provoked by German agents in Iran, Turkish troops began to advance to the oil fields and by the fall of 1915 occupied Kermanshah and Hamadan. But soon the arriving British troops drove the Turks and Bakhtiars away from the oil fields area, and restored the oil pipeline destroyed by the Bakhtiars. The task of clearing Iran of Turkish-German troops fell to the Russian expeditionary force of General Baratov, which landed in Anzali in October 1915. Pursuing German-Turkish troops, Baratov’s detachments occupied Qazvin, Hamadan, Qom, Kashan and approached Isfahan. In the summer of 1915, British troops captured German South-West Africa. In January 1916, the British forced German troops surrounded in Cameroon to surrender.

1916 campaign. The 1915 military campaign on the Western Front did not produce any major operational results. Positional battles only delayed the war. The Entente moved to an economic blockade of Germany, to which the latter responded with a merciless submarine war. In May 1915, a German submarine torpedoed the British ocean-going steamer Lusitania, on which over a thousand passengers died. Without undertaking active offensive military operations, England and France, thanks to the shift in the center of gravity of military operations to the Russian front, received a respite, and focused all their attention on the development of the military industry. They accumulated strength for further war. By the beginning of 1916, England and France had an advantage over Germany by 70-80 divisions and were superior to it in the latest weapons (tanks appeared). The severe consequences of active offensive military operations in 1914-1915 prompted the leaders of the Entente to convene a meeting of representatives of the general staffs of the allied armies in December 1915 in Chantilly, near Paris, where they came to the conclusion that the war could be ended victoriously only with coordinated active offensive operations on the main fronts . However, even after this decision, the offensive in 1916 was scheduled primarily on the Eastern Front - June 15, and on the Western Front - July 1. Having learned about the planned timing of the Entente offensive, the German command decided to take the initiative into their own hands and launch an offensive on the Western Front much earlier. At the same time, the main attack was planned on the area of the Verdun fortifications: for the protection of which, in the firm conviction of the German command, “the French command will be forced to sacrifice the last man,” since in the event of a breakthrough of the front at Verdun, a direct path to Paris will open. However, the attack on Verdun, launched on February 21, 1916, was not crowned with success, especially since in March, due to the advance of Russian troops in the area of the city of Dvinsky Lake Naroch, the German command was forced to weaken its onslaught near Verdun. However, bloody mutual attacks and counterattacks near Verdun continued for almost 10 months, until December 18, but did not produce significant results. The Verdun operation literally turned into a “meat grinder”, into the destruction of manpower. Both sides suffered colossal losses: the French - 350 thousand people, the Germans - 600 thousand people. The German offensive on the Verdun fortifications did not change the Entente command's plan to launch the main offensive on July 1, 1916 on the Somme River. The Somme battles intensified every day. In September, after a continuous barrage of Anglo-French artillery fire, British tanks soon appeared on the battlefield. However, technically still imperfect and used in small numbers, although they brought local success to the attacking Anglo-French troops, they could not provide a general strategic operational breakthrough of the front. By the end of November 1916, the Somme fighting began to subside. As a result of the entire Somme operation, the Entente captured an area of 200 square meters. km, 105 thousand German prisoners, 1,500 machine guns and 350 guns. In the battles on the Somme, both sides lost over 1 million 300 thousand killed, wounded and prisoners. Carrying out the decisions agreed upon at a meeting of representatives of the general staffs in December 1915 in Chantilly, the high command of the Russian army planned for June 15 the main offensive on the Western Front in the direction of Baranovichi with a simultaneous auxiliary attack by the armies of the Southwestern Front under the command of General Brusilov in the Galician-Bukovinian direction. However, the German offensive on Verdun, which began in February, again forced the French government to ask the Russian tsarist government for help through an offensive on the Eastern Front. At the beginning of March, Russian troops launched an offensive in the area of Dvinsk and Lake Navoch. The attacks of Russian troops continued until March 15, but led only to tactical successes. As a result of this operation, Russian troops suffered heavy losses, but they pulled over a significant number of German reserves and thereby eased the position of the French at Verdun. French troops were given the opportunity to regroup and strengthen their defenses. The Dvina-Naroch operation made it difficult to prepare for the general offensive on the Russian-German front, scheduled for June 15. However, after the help to the French, there was a new persistent request from the command of the Entente troops to help the Italians. In May 1916, the 400,000-strong Austro-Hungarian army went on the offensive in Trentino and inflicted a heavy defeat on the Italian army. Saving the Italian army, as well as the Anglo-French in the west, from complete defeat, the Russian command began an offensive of troops in the southwestern direction on June 4, earlier than planned. Russian troops under the command of General Brusilov, having broken through the enemy’s defenses on an almost 300-kilometer front, began to advance into Eastern Galicia and Bukovina (Brusilovsky breakthrough). But in the midst of the offensive, despite General Brusilov’s requests to reinforce the advancing troops with reserves and ammunition, the high command of the Russian army refused to send reserves to the southwestern direction and began, as previously planned, an offensive in the western direction. However, after a weak blow in the direction of Baranovichi, the commander of the northwestern direction, General Evert, postponed the general offensive to the beginning of July. Meanwhile, the troops of General Brusilov continued to develop the offensive they had begun and by the end of June had advanced far into Galicia and Bukovina. On July 3, General Evert resumed the attack on Baranovichi, but attacks by Russian troops on this section of the front were not successful. Only after the complete failure of the offensive of General Evert’s troops did the high command of the Russian troops recognize the offensive of General Brusilov’s troops on the Southwestern Front as the main one - but it was already too late, time was lost, the Austrian command managed to regroup its troops and pull up reserves. Six divisions were transferred from the Austro-Italian front, and the German command, at the height of the Verdun and Somme battles, transferred eleven divisions to the Eastern Front. Further advance of Russian troops was suspended. As a result of the offensive on the Southwestern Front, Russian troops advanced deep into Bukovina and Eastern Galicia, occupying about 25 thousand square meters. km of territory. 9 thousand officers and over 400 thousand soldiers were captured. However, this success of the Russian army in the summer of 1916 did not bring a decisive strategic result due to the inertia and mediocrity of the high command, backwardness of transport, and lack of weapons and ammunition. Still, the offensive of Russian troops in 1916 played a major role. It eased the position of the Allies and, together with the offensive of the Anglo-French troops on the Somme, negated the initiative of the German troops and forced them in the future to strategic defense, and the Austro-Hungarian army after the Brusilov attack in 1916 was no longer capable of serious offensive operations. When Russian troops under the command of Brusilov inflicted a major defeat on the Austro-Werger troops on the Southwestern Front, the Romanian ruling circles considered that the opportune moment had come to enter the war on the side of the winners, especially since, contrary to the opinion of Russia, England and France insisted on the entry of Romania into the war. On August 17, Romania independently began the war in Transylvania and initially achieved some success there, but when the Somme fighting died down, Austro-German troops easily defeated the Romanian army and occupied almost all of Romania, obtaining a fairly important source of food and oil. As the Russian command foresaw, 35 infantry and 11 cavalry divisions had to be transferred to Romania in order to strengthen the front along the Lower Danube - Braila - Focsani - Dorna - Vatra line. On the Caucasian front, developing an offensive, Russian troops captured Erzurum on February 16, 1916, and on April 18 occupied Trabzond (Trebizond). Battles developed successfully for the Russian troops in the Urmia direction, where Ruvandiz was occupied, and near Lake Van, where Russian troops entered Mush and Bitlis in the summer. Campaign 1917 of the year.

By the end of 1916, the superiority of the Entente was clearly revealed, both in the number of armed forces and in military equipment, especially in artillery, aviation and tanks. The Entente entered the military campaign of 1917 on all fronts with 425 divisions against 331 enemy divisions. However, differences in the military leadership and the self-interested goals of the Entente participants often paralyzed these advantages, which was clearly manifested in the inconsistency of the Entente command during major operations in 1916. Having switched to strategic defense, the Austro-German coalition, still far from defeated, confronted the world with the fact of a protracted, exhausting war. And every month, every week of the war entailed new colossal casualties. By the end of 1916, both sides had lost about 6 million people killed and about 10 million people wounded and maimed. Under the influence of enormous human losses and hardships at the front and in the rear, all the warring countries experienced a chauvinistic frenzy in the first months of the war. Every year the anti-war movement grew in the rear and at the fronts. The prolongation of the war inevitably affected, among other things, the morale of the Russian army. The patriotic upsurge of 1914 was lost long ago, and the exploitation of the idea of “Slavic solidarity” also exhausted itself. Stories about German cruelties also did not have the desired effect. War fatigue was becoming more and more evident. Sitting in the trenches, the immobility of positional warfare, the absence of the simplest human conditions in the positions - all this was the background of the increasing frequency of soldier unrest. To this we must add a protest against cane discipline, abuses by superiors, and embezzlement of the rear services. Both at the front and in the rear garrisons, cases of non-compliance with orders and expressions of sympathy for striking workers were increasingly observed. In August - September 1915, during a wave of strikes in Petrograd, many soldiers of the capital's garrison expressed solidarity with the workers, and demonstrations took place on a number of ships of the Baltic Fleet. In 1916, there was an uprising of soldiers at the Kremenchug distribution point, and at the same point in Gomel. In the summer of 1916, two Siberian regiments refused to go into battle. Cases of fraternization with enemy soldiers appeared. By the fall of 1916, a significant part of the 10 million army was in a state of ferment. The main obstacle to victory was now not material shortcomings (weapons and supplies, military equipment), but the internal state of society itself. Deep contradictions spanned layers. The main contradiction was between the tsarist-monarchist camp and the other two - liberal-bourgeois and revolutionary-democratic. The Tsar and the court camarilla grouped around him wanted to retain all their privileges, the liberal bourgeoisie wanted to gain access to government power, and the revolutionary-democratic camp, led by the Bolshevik Party, fought to overthrow the monarchy. The broad masses of the population of all the warring countries were gripped by ferment. More and more workers demanded immediate peace and condemned chauvinism, protested against merciless exploitation, lack of food, clothing, fuel, and against the enrichment of the elite of society. The refusal of the ruling circles to satisfy these demands and the suppression of protests by force gradually led the masses to the conclusion that it was necessary to fight against the military dictatorship and the entire existing system. Anti-war protests grew into a revolutionary movement. In such a situation, anxiety grew in the ruling circles of both coalitions. Even the most extreme imperialists could not help but take into account the mood of the masses who yearned for peace. Therefore, maneuvers were undertaken with “peace” proposals in the hope that these proposals would be rejected by the enemy, and in this case all the blame for the continuation of the war could be blamed on him. So on December 12, 1916, the Kaiser’s government of Germany invited the Entente countries to begin “peace” negotiations. At the same time, the German “peace” proposal was designed to create a split in the Entente camp and to support those layers within the Entente countries that were inclined to achieve peace with Germany without a “crushing blow” to Germany by force of arms. Since Germany’s “peace” proposal did not contain any specific conditions and completely hushed up the question of the fate of the territories of Russia, Belgium, France, Serbia, and Romania occupied by Austro-German troops, this gave the Entente a reason to respond to this and subsequent proposals with specific demands for the liberation of Germany of all occupied territories, as well as the division of Turkey, the “reorganization” of Europe based on the “national principle,” which actually meant the Entente’s refusal to enter into peace negotiations with Germany and its allies. German propaganda noisily announced to the whole world that the Entente countries were to blame for the continuation of the war and that they were forcing Germany to take “defensive measures” through merciless “unrestricted submarine warfare.” In February 1917, the bourgeois-democratic revolution won in Russia, and a movement for a revolutionary way out of the imperialist war developed widely in the country. In response to the unrestricted submarine warfare on the part of Germany, which began in February 1917, the United States broke off diplomatic relations with the latter, and on April 6, declaring war on Germany, entered the war in order to influence its results in its favor. Even before the arrival of American soldiers, Entente troops launched an offensive on the Western Front on April 16, 1917. But the attacks of the Anglo-French troops, following one after another on April 16-19, were unsuccessful. The French and British lost more than 200 thousand killed in four days of fighting. In this battle, 5 thousand Russian soldiers from the 3rd Russian brigade, sent from Russia to help the allies, died. Almost all 132 British tanks participating in the battle were knocked out or destroyed. In preparing for this military operation, the Entente command persistently demanded that the Russian Provisional Government launch an offensive on the Eastern Front. However, preparing such an offensive in revolutionary Russia was not easy. Nevertheless, the head of the Provisional Government, Kerensky, began intensively preparing an offensive, hoping, in case of success, to raise the prestige of the bourgeois Provisional Government, and in case of failure, to blame the Bolsheviks. The Russian offensive in the Lvov direction, launched on July 1, 1917, initially developed successfully, but soon the German army, reinforced by 11 divisions transferred from the Western Front, launched a counteroffensive and threw the Russian troops far beyond their original positions. Thus, in 1917, on all European fronts, despite the Entente’s superiority in manpower and military equipment, its troops failed to achieve decisive success in any of the offensives undertaken. The revolutionary situation in Russia and the lack of necessary coordination in military operations within the coalition thwarted the implementation of the Entente's strategic plans, designed for the complete defeat of the Austro-German bloc in 1917. And at the beginning of September 1917, the German army launched an offensive on the northern sector of the Eastern Front with the aim of capturing Riga and the Riga coast. The Germans’ choice of the moment to attack near Riga was not accidental. This was the time when the Russian reactionary military elite, preparing a counter-revolutionary coup in the country, decided to rely on the German military. At a state meeting convened in Moscow in August, General Kornilov expressed his “assumption” about the imminent fall of Riga and the opening of roads to Petrograd, the cradle of the Russian revolution. This served as a signal for the German army to attack Riga. Despite the fact that there were every opportunity to hold Riga, it was surrendered to the Germans by order of the military command. Clearing the way for the Germans to revolutionary Petrograd, Kornilov began his open counter-revolutionary rebellion. Kornilov was defeated by revolutionary workers and soldiers under the leadership of the Bolsheviks. General history: Handbook/F.s. Kapitsa, V.A. Grigoriev, E.P. Novikova et al. - M.: Philologist, 1996. The 1917 campaign was characterized by further attempts by the warring parties to overcome the positional deadlock, this time through the massive use of artillery, tanks and aircraft. The saturation of troops with technical means of combat significantly complicated the offensive battle; it became in the full sense a combined arms battle, the success of which was achieved by the coordinated actions of all branches of the military. During the campaign operation, there was a gradual transition from dense rifle chains to group formations of troops. The core of these formations were tanks, escort guns and machine guns. Unlike rifle chains, groups could maneuver on the battlefield, destroy or bypass the firing points and strongholds of the defender, and advance at a faster pace. The growth of the technical equipment of the troops created the preconditions for breaking through the positional front. In some cases, troops managed to break through enemy defenses to the entire tactical depth. However, in general, the problem of breaking through the positional front was not solved, since the attacker could not develop tactical success to an operational scale. The development of means and methods of conducting an offensive led to further improvement of defense. The depth of defense of the divisions increased to 10-12 km. In addition to the main positions, they began to build forward, cutoff and rear positions. There has been a transition from rigid defense to maneuver of forces and means to repel the enemy's offensive. Campaign of 1918. The preparation of the parties for hostilities in the 1918 campaign took place in the context of a growing revolutionary movement in the countries of Western Europe under the influence of the Great October Socialist Revolution. Already in January 1918, mass strikes of workers broke out in a number of countries, and uprisings occurred in the armies and navies. The revolutionary movement grew especially quickly in Germany and Austria-Hungary. The growth of the revolutionary movement in European countries was the main reason why the American imperialists began to transfer their troops to France. By the beginning of 1918, the Entente (without Russia) had 274 divisions, 51,750 guns, 3,784 aircraft and 890 tanks. The countries of the German coalition had 275 divisions, 15,700 guns and 2,890 aircraft; there were no tanks in their army. Having lost numerical superiority in forces due to Russia's withdrawal from the war, the Entente command decided to switch to strategic defense in order to accumulate forces and begin active operations in the second half of 1918. The German command, planning military operations for 1918, planned to carry out two strikes: in the west - with the aim of defeating the allies, ahead of the arrival of the main contingent of US troops in France, and in the east - with the aim of unleashing a military intervention against the Soviet Republic. On February 18, 1918, Germany and Austria-Hungary violated the truce with Soviet Russia and their troops invaded the territory of Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic states. However, they met resistance from the working people of the Soviet Republic and were forced on February 23 to agree to peace negotiations. The Germans struck the first blow in the West on March 21 on the right flank of the British in Picardy. Superiority in forces and surprise of actions ensured their success in the first days of the offensive. The British troops had to retreat and suffered significant losses. In this regard, the German command clarified the initial plan of the operation, deciding to defeat the French troops south of the Somme. However, during the operation, superiority in forces was lost. Fighting south of the Somme continued until April 4, when the German advance was completely stopped. It was not possible to defeat the main forces of the Anglo-French troops. Five days later, the Germans launched an offensive against the British on the northern sector of the front in Flanders. As in March, here, due to the surprise of the offensive and significant superiority in forces, they initially managed to put the British in a critical position. But French reserves were brought forward to help, and this saved the British troops from defeat. Fighting in this direction continued until May 1. The Germans advanced 16-20 km, captured a number of settlements, but did not achieve their main goal - they failed to defeat the British. Despite the failure of two operations, the Germans did not give up hope of defeating the Entente and forcing it to at least a compromise peace. To this end, a new operation began on May 27, now against French troops in the Paris direction. The French front was broken through on the first day of the offensive. To cause panic in Paris, the Germans began shelling it with super-heavy guns, the firing range of which reached 120 km. By May 30, German troops advancing in the center reached the Marne River, finding themselves 70 km away. From Paris. However, on the left wing their advance was stopped. Attempts to expand the breakthrough towards the flanks were unsuccessful. The forces of the Entente were constantly growing. The balance of enemy forces was almost equalized, and by June 7 active hostilities ceased. The Germans failed to form the Marne. On June 11, the French launched a strong counterattack on the right flank of the German troops. The German offensive was stopped completely. On July 15, the German command launched a new offensive operation on the Marne with the aim of delivering the final crushing blow. The operation was prepared carefully with the expectation of a surprise attack. However, the French learned about the place and time of the upcoming attack and took a number of preventive measures, in particular, they withdrew their main forces to the rear. As a result of this, the German fire strike hit an empty place. On the first day of the offensive, German troops crossed the Marne in several places and moved 5-8 km into the French positions. Having met the main forces of the French, the Germans were unable to advance further. On July 18, French troops launched a counterattack on the right flank of German troops located on the Marne ledge, and threw them back 20-30 km beyond the Aisne River, that is, to the line from which they began their offensive in May. The Entente command planned a number of private operations for the second half of 1918 with the aim of eliminating the ledges formed during the German offensive operations. It believed that if these operations were successful, then larger operations could be carried out in the future. The offensive of the Anglo-French troops with the aim of eliminating the Amenien ledge began on August 8. An unexpected and strong blow from the Allies led to a breakthrough of the German defenses and the rapid development of the operation. He contributed to the decline in morale of the German army. In just one day, over 10 thousand surrendered. German soldiers and officers. In the second half of August, the Entente command organized a number of new operations, expanding the offensive front, and on September 26, the Anglo-French launched a general offensive. Germany's military disaster was fast approaching. This accelerated the defeat of the German troops. During October, Anglo-French troops successively overcame several German defensive zones in Northern France. On November 5, German troops began to retreat along the entire front, and on November 11, Germany capitulated. The First World War, which lasted just over four years, is over.

What if there had been no First World War. “The third world war is inevitable, but there will be no direct conflict” Was the Russian army good?

Could this happen?

Geopolitics

Inevitable

A little fantasy

Reduced US role

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