“If Sweden joins NATO, we will have to take the necessary measures.

Sweden and Finland will open their skies to operations in the largest NATO exercise in yearsTridentJuncture. The “Unified Trident” will begin on October 25 in Norway, where the troops of the alliance countries are already arriving.

Relations between Sweden, Finland and the North Atlantic Alliance over the past few years can be called quite worthy of becoming the basis for a script for a humorous series. NATO unobtrusively but methodically involves Stockholm and Helsinki in joint activities. The Finns and Swedes at first refuse for a long time, then reluctantly agree, and at the same time they begin to declare even more decisively about their neutrality and that they are not going to join anyone. And when Russia, barely holding back a smile, says that some of them are not very neutral, they snap. But then they calm down and say that we will still maintain relations with Russia, but you stop making fun of us, otherwise it’s very insulting.

The unsurprising result of this "policy of neutrality" was the NATO exercise, which will be held in Norway. On October 9, the lieutenant general of the Norwegian armed forces also announced that Sweden and Finland would open their airspace to NATO aircraft for the duration of the exercises.

An interesting fact: all 29 member countries of the alliance will participate in the maneuvers, and among the invited “guests” are Finland, Sweden and Ukraine. It is difficult to say how the Swedes and Finns feel on the same bench with the Ukrainians. Still, the northerners are still trying to keep a straight face and pretend that they are almost forced, but Kyiv does not hesitate to tell the whole world about how he wants to get into the alliance as soon as possible and what he is ready for for this. The behavior is different, but the result is the same.

By the way, the Ukrainian government has a new reason for frustration. On October 9, a press conference dedicated to the exercises was held in Bod, Norway. Questions were answered during the press conference by Admiral James Foggo, Commander of the US Naval Forces in Europe and head of the joint forces of NATO allies in Naples, and Lieutenant General Rune Jacobsen, Chief of the Main Operational Command of the Armed Forces of Norway. They mentioned all those involved - and 29 countries, and the Swedes, and the Finns, and Germany was generally praised for several minutes. But not a word about Ukraine.

Even Russia was remembered. When the moderator asked the two military men about how far from the Russian border the exercises would take place, they vaguely replied that, of course, Norway borders on Russia. Understand how you want. But then, however, they added that NATO would work out actions against a hypothetical enemy, and not against someone else. "Russia has no reason to worry." What happiness.

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Two Scandinavian countries, Sweden and Finland, have always played a special role in the complex mechanism of interaction between NATO countries. Not being members of NATO, they have always been distinguished by increased activity of complicity in the activities of the Alliance, being, in fact, its outpost at the northern borders of Russia.

It is believed that the European Union (EU) and NATO are relatives. After all, of the 28 members of the Alliance, only 6 are not members of the EU. So there is a blood connection between them. And any hesitation, especially a brexit shock in one of them, resonates in the other. Not surprisingly, after the British referendum, there were different versions of how he would backfire in the Alliance. According to one of them, the EU will weaken, and NATO will strengthen.

Like the EU, NATO is a structure that is not limited to direct membership: it has surrounded itself with various orbits into which it draws into its sphere of influence. There are such well-known or less well-known forms of cooperation with it as partnership for peace (PfP), individual partnership plan, accelerated dialogue, membership action plan. At the same time, the last three can be considered as preparatory steps for membership. Well, partnership - it is a partnership. Until April 2014, even Russia was in this capacity. If we count the participants in all these forms of integration, then 21 more countries are added to the 28 members, of which 10 are considered candidates (including Kazakhstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, not to mention Georgia and Ukraine).

Two Scandinavian countries, Sweden and Finland, have always played a special role in this complex mechanism. It is expressed in the fact that, unlike Norway, not being members of NATO, but being only participants in the PfP, they have always been distinguished by increased activity of complicity in the activities of the Alliance. Especially Sweden.

Swedish neutrality

After the defeat in the war with Russia in 1808-9, Sweden withdrew from the battles. And she declared the “policy of non-alignment and neutrality” a sacred value, which she has been adhering to for more than two centuries. This is her constitutional position.

One of the attributes of such a position is the presence of a strong army capable of effective defense. Like the Swiss, it is built on the basis of the militia. That is, on the basis of a short period of compulsory service, but with regular retraining. This allows you to have a small permanent contingent and a powerful reserve. After the reform of 2010, which headed for a professional army, its number was reduced to about 30 thousand. But in the event of a conflict, from 570 to 600 thousand people can be mobilized. The Swedish Air Force has more than 160 combat and 100 auxiliary aircraft, the Navy - 50 surface ships and five submarines.

Another condition is the country's ability to provide itself with weapons. And the Swedes also succeeded in this. Its military-industrial complex produces almost all types of weapons, with the exception of nuclear weapons. From the Ak 5 and Ak 4 rifles to the JAS 39 Gripen fighters. Sweden has its own Strv 121 and Strv 122 tanks and self-propelled artillery mounts (this year the military adopted the first serial batch of 155-mm Archer self-propelled guns - a joint development with Norway, which will replace the FH-77 towed howitzer), portable anti-aircraft -missile systems, artillery and naval radars.

The country's shipyards produce warships, including Visby-class corvettes and submarines. The quality of the Gotland diesel submarines with the Stirling engine is so high that the Americans even rented them for a year. Sweden is the world's seventh arms exporter. Among the buyers are Norway, the Netherlands, India, South Africa ... and even the USA and the UK.

However, in the circles of the Swedish establishment, an opinion has recently been brewing that in the event of a collision with Russia, it is unlikely that it will be able to defend itself. And even hold out until help arrives. And will she come at all?

We are unable to defend ourselves in the event of an attack by the Russian army. NATO, on the other hand, made it clear that Sweden cannot count on military assistance if it is not a member of the organization. We can no longer turn a blind eye to this situation. the liberal Center Party said in a statement.

And despite the fact that, being a non-bloc country, Sweden, however, can hardly be considered neutral. Her attitude towards the Alliance - both in words and in behavior - has always been interested. Together with the Finns, she immediately (in 1994) subscribed to the PMR platform, and in 2006 she became part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. At the same time, the activity of its participation in such structures has always gone beyond the diplomatic framework. Both in terms of geography: Afghanistan, Iraq, Bosnia, Kosovo, Libya, Congo, etc., and in terms of its intensity. For example, during the NATO operation in Libya, she was no longer engaged in peacekeeping activities. Its Gripen and Gulfstream IV aircraft made more than 570 sorties and provided a third of intelligence information (2.7 thousand reports). This participation, in essence, was carried out under the full patronage of NATO - from the deployment of Swedish aircraft at its military base in Sicily to the complete coordination of all actions with its command.

It is noteworthy that the decision to use the air force outside the country easily slipped through parliament, since public opinion was hostile to Gadaffi.

The special role of Sweden in relations with NATO is also manifested in the form of the Nordic Defense Cooperation (NORDEFCO) created back in 2009, which includes, in addition to Sweden and Finland, three NATO members (Denmark, Iceland, Norway). Particularly interesting is her role as a military curator of the Baltic countries. Isn't it paradoxical that, not being a member of the Alliance, the Swedes not only provide the lion's share of arms supplies to its three members, but are also engaged in reforming their armed forces to NATO standards!

So, as part of the Western world, Sweden has always consolidated with it, and considered Russia only as a neighbor with whom it is worth being on good terms. And when Crimeanash happened, she did not hesitate to condemn Moscow, joining the sanctions. The reaction to the new situation manifested itself in many steps. Here are just a few of them.

In April 2014, the Scandinavian countries - Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark and Iceland - signed a document on closer military cooperation. This pact has already been dubbed the "Atlantic mini-NATO".

The Swedes and Finns simultaneously launched projects for the militarization of their islands - Gotland and Aland, respectively. Finnish Minister of War Jussi Niiniste directly linked the decision to deploy troops there to the Ukrainian crisis and the annexation of Crimea.

Both countries participated in two major NATO exercises in 2015, with Sweden providing airspace for another.

May 25 this year The Riksdag has ratified an agreement with NATO on cooperation, according to which its military is allowed to participate in exercises on Swedish territory. In addition, in the event of a war in the region, Stockholm is ready to approve the deployment of a NATO contingent.

For its part, Russia, which fell into an imperial revanchist hysteria, responded with threats and a show of force. Flying Russian planes in provocative proximity to Swedish airspace has become almost an everyday pastime. What is worth, for example, the incident in July last year, when fighter jets were raised into the sky to intercept two Russian Tu-22M strategic supersonic bombers near the island of Gotland.

Another topic of "showdown" was Russian submarines, allegedly darting in Swedish waters and being found here and there. In particular, let us recall the excitement in October 2014, when an entire flotilla was involved in the operation in search of a submarine in the area of ​​the Stockholm archipelago. Most often, such stories end either with a false alarm, or the ends will sink into the water, but both the mania of courage and the mania of persecution in themselves indicate a sharp increase in the degree of tension in relations between the two countries.

The language of diplomatic communication has also become sharper. When in September last year the press lady of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, warned about the military-political consequences of joining NATO, the Swedish Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador to Stockholm, where Swedish lady Minister Margot Wallström made him the suggestion: “We are a sovereign state and make decisions independently about our security policy,” she explained.

This was reflected in the mood of ordinary Swedes. Sociologists note an increase in the number of "Atlantists": they have become about 40%. However, they are still in the minority. Therefore, the voices of the "Atlantists" are heard publicly only at the level of individual parties or "private opinions". An example is the proposal of the liberals (Center Party) to revise the neutral status of the country. And the authorities continue to repeat the mantra of adherence to the taboo on military blocs. It is also confirmed in the program of the current government cabinet of Stefan Leven. He confirms this attitude even now, explaining that the Riksdag would still not approve joining NATO.

It is noteworthy that even after the approval of the cooperation agreement with NATO by the parliament, the current Minister of War Peter Hulkvist saw fit to assure:

This deal will not change our relationship with NATO, nor the foundations of our defense policy. We will not enter into any alliances, and not a single NATO soldier will set foot on Swedish soil without an invitation.

Neutrality in Finnish

The situation in Finland is even more complicated. It would seem that historical memory, and quite fresh at that, should push the Finns towards NATO much stronger than the Swedes. However, instead of grievances and old scores in the post-war concept, they laid the non-bloc paradigm with even greater thoroughness than their neighbor. For their part, the USSR and Russia contributed to turning "friendship with Finland" into a standard of bilateral relations.

The 1948 treaty and its revision in 1991 allowed the Finns to keep themselves as part of the Western world. And at the same time to receive rent in the form of abundant orders for their industry and raw materials for it at bargain prices, which together contribute a lot to the “Finnish economic miracle”. Such an experience cemented in the minds of the hard-nosed Finns the conviction that it is precisely “neutrality” that is the guarantor of their security.

As in Sweden, Crimeanash became a catalyst for the deterioration of these relations. The then Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen (2011-2014) stated in March 2014 in an interview with the German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel that his country was not a neutral party to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Moreover, he scathingly commented on Henry Kissinger's advice to Ukraine to adhere to "Finlandization" and remain neutral. He said that Kissinger sees Finland as a Cold War country, even though it has been a member of the EU for nearly twenty years. “We are no longer neutral, although we are not part of any military alliance,” he said. Katainen also added that Finland is considering joining NATO as a full member, and the decision to join the North Atlantic alliance does not depend on the country's desire to maintain good relations with Russia.

Sociologists (in particular, from the Taloustutkimus agency) have recorded that our Crimea also affected the attitude towards NATO. The number of "Atlantists" has grown. This is especially noticeable among officers (up to 50%). But in general, their absolute share remains even lower than in Sweden (growth from 20 to 30%).

And this is the main reason why the political elite is still reluctant to change course. The paradox is that even being "Atlantists" (and former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb (2014-15) with his Minister of War Karl Haglund, and the current President Sauli Niiniste), its representatives, having stood at the helm, are forced to confirm fidelity to the classical course.

“Even though I personally advocate for my country's membership in NATO, I don't think this is the right moment. In addition, one must understand that only 25% of Finns approve of this idea,” Stubb said when he came to power. In the 2006 elections, Niiniste campaigned for NATO. But then neutral Tarja Halonen won. And today, in the rank of president, he is forced to explain to his "younger brothers" Estonians that such an issue can only be resolved through a referendum. Only what is the point of starting it when the negative answer is so obvious. Therefore, the president believes that the favorable moment for joining NATO was in the early 90s. But he was missed.

So the current Prime Minister Juha Sipilä is very skeptical: “Small countries do not change their basic political principles so often, long-term is more significant for them than for large states,” he said in one of his interviews.

Today, however, as in the Swedish case, Finland's non-bloc nature does not at all mean its neutrality. Like Sweden, it also joined the EU and joined the PfP and, in 1997, the Euro-Atlantic Cooperation Council as a partner country. Accordingly, like the Swedes, the Finns conscientiously sent their soldiers to various NATO and EU peacekeeping missions. And its army, according to experts, fully complies with NATO standards.

By the way, the Finnish army is estimated by experts as more powerful than the Swedish one. It has 35 thousand people. regular forces and up to 900 thousand reserves, 60 combat aircraft (fighters - Finnish tracing paper of the American FA-18 Hornet), about 250 tanks and other combat vehicles, more than 40 ships. True, the equipment is mostly imported, and the fleet is much inferior to the Swedish one (mostly boats and the complete absence of submarines). But these forces are hardly enough to withstand an invasion from Russia. Therefore, joining the 3.3 million NATO forces is, of course, the weighty argument used by the “Atlantists”.

Well…

So how likely is a NATO advance towards Russia from the north? The authors of a special report by the Finnish Foreign Ministry, in which the solitaire "for" and "against" NATO is laid out on the shelves, are already asking themselves this question for the umpteenth time. As in our scenario, in it, in essence, there is only one argument “against”. But he pulls all the pros like lead: the Scandinavians are afraid and do not want to quarrel with Russia. Departing from a direct answer, the authors of the text conclude it in the form of a wish: if you really want to enter, then you must definitely join the Swedes.

By the way, this is fixed and understood from the side that manifests itself in a combination of more and more scary scarecrows with advice to be softer and more polite with neighbors. In practice, this is expressed in the recommendation not to expand too much on the active participation of neighbors in NATO events. They say, no matter what they amused, if only they didn’t cross the red marks.

There are two labels. Non-introduction. And the taboo on the deployment of NATO bases.

These two labels, especially the second one, are psychological and political taboos that have gnawed into the mentality of Swedes and Finns. And so far there are no signs that in the near future the Scandinavian elites will follow any sharp movements in terms of formalizing relations - simply because they will not receive electoral support.

Another question is about neutrality. But as it turns out from real practice, it has long been de facto non-existent. And here the closest forms of "working with NATO" are possible without being a member of it. Moreover, perhaps even with the secret approval of Brussels itself. After all, the entry of Sweden and Finland is fraught with real military confrontation, which no one needs in Europe. But there is also an American player.

What will prevail - "soft" or hard power? And will the NATO horseshoe bend to the North? The current process is two-way. And while the Scandinavians themselves have not yet passed the critical point. So the alternative paths are preserved.

Referring to the need to defend against the “Russian threat” created by the reunification of Crimea with Russia and the war in the Donbass, Stockholm and NATO signed a memorandum of understanding back in 2014, allowing NATO troops to be stationed on Swedish territory in the event of a “strategic need”.

Links to the Crimea and Donbass are a common propaganda fake. The intention of Stockholm and Brussels to sign the memorandum was known back in November 2013, before the start of the Euromaidan in Kyiv, and the rapprochement between Sweden and NATO began even earlier, in the 1990s. In 1994, Sweden joined the NATO Partnership for Peace program, in 1996 participated in NATO operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and in 1999 in Kosovo. Then the Swedish military had Afghanistan (2001) and Libya (2011). In 2013, units of the Swedish Armed Forces became part of the NATO Rapid Reaction Forces, designed to be deployed anywhere in the world.

Stockholm does not hide its interest in military cooperation with Germany as part of the Framework Nation Concept comprehensive program. Interacting with Berlin, the Swedes are aiming to turn the Baltic into a territory of complete NATO domination, where Sweden will have its own zone of responsibility (control).

Since 2015, Berlin has been holding an annual conference of fleet commanders of European countries, including Sweden, to discuss issues of joint defense in the Baltic. Russia, although it is the largest Baltic power, is not invited to these conferences. But their participant is Norway, which does not have direct access to the Baltic: it is believed that it can confront Russia in the Barents Sea, blocking the Russian Navy's exit through the Norwegian Sea to the shores of Northern Europe. It is assumed that the "joint defense" in the Baltic should also ensure the freedom of movement of NATO ships in the Denmark Strait - a 260-kilometer wide neck between Greenland and Iceland, which is a key artery for military supplies from the United States and Canada to the northern flank of NATO (to Scandinavia and the Baltic states) . About 125,000 cargo ships pass through the Denmark Strait every year.

German military diplomacy sets the task of raising the level of operational interaction between the navies of the Baltic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden) in agreement with Washington.

To achieve a strategic advantage in the Baltic region, the North Atlantic Alliance needs control over three key points - the Finnish Åland Islands, the Swedish Gotland and the Danish Bornholm. These island points, in turn, allow you to control the Kattegat and Skagerrak straits, which connect the ports of the Baltic Sea with the World Ocean. An important condition for achieving such control is the involvement in the plans of the alliance of two states that are not members of NATO - Sweden and Finland.

Aland Islands, Gotland Island and Bornholm Island on the expert map of the American Heritage Foundation (The Heritage Foundation)

In 2018, joint naval exercises of the German and Swedish navies will be held in the territorial waters of Sweden. And in July of this year, the functions of command of the NATO grouping in the Mediterranean Sea will be transferred to Germany, and Sweden has already been invited to send its representatives to the grouping headquarters to exchange experience.

Stefan Hedlund, professor at the Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Uppsala University, sees in the rapprochement between Sweden and NATO a desire for a radical reshaping of the regional security system. “And then it will be a completely different game in the Baltic,” says Hedlund.

NATO build-up strategy in Northern Europe dubbed "Enhanced Presence in the North" (Enhanced Northern Presence) and today is based on in-depth military cooperation between four countries - the United States, Great Britain, Norway and Denmark. Iceland and Canada are considered allies of the "second row". Each country covered by the Enhanced Northern Presence program participates in the US project to modernize the F-35 fifth-generation multifunctional fighter-bomber. In addition, Great Britain, Denmark and Norway are participating in a program to equip their national navies with the American Aegis combat information and control system; Norway, Denmark and the USA - in the unmanned surveillance program (Alliance Ground Surveillance), which allows using five Global Hawk UAVs to monitor ground targets located at a distance of up to 16 thousand kilometers from the launch site.

In 2018, Washington increased by 41% (to $4.8 billion) funding for the European Reassurance Initiative program to ensure an enhanced American military presence in Europe and the North Atlantic. According to the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Major General Igor Konashenkov, the military infrastructure created by NATO in Europe allows trained personnel to be transferred to the Russian borders from the nearest American military base (Ramstein, Germany) in just two hours.

Therefore, the North Atlantic Alliance is building cooperation with Sweden in the 29+2 format (29 NATO member countries + Sweden and Finland). Legally neutral Sweden has actually been turned into a NATO ally.

The question of Finland and Sweden joining NATO has been haunting politicians and the military of many countries for several years now.

Finns' cooperation with the North Atlantic bloc is getting closer every year. The Finnish army has repeatedly taken part in NATO exercises. Finnish soldiers were part of the NATO military contingent in Afghanistan.

Practically in all Finnish political parties there are supporters of the country's accession to NATO. The main supporters of this idea are Finnish President Saule Niiniste and former Foreign Minister Alexander Stubba. The Information Service of the National Defense Commission of Finland constantly conducts opinion polls in order to find out the opinion of the population about the prospects for the country's entry into NATO.

At the same time, it should be noted that, despite the efforts of supporters of the "Atlantists" in the country's leadership, 70% of Finns do not agree with the entry of their state into any military bloc.

The head of Finnish diplomacy Erkki Tuomioja, as a true official, gave an ambivalent assessment of Finland's plans for NATO membership: "As written in the government's program, Finland is not a member of the military alliance, but cooperates with NATO and retains the possibility of applying for membership in it." In order to maintain good relations with the United States and NATO, the Finns decided to purchase air-to-ground cruise missiles worth 145 million euros, 70 guided tactical missiles, and additional equipment worth $132 million from the United States.

It cannot be said that the "naive" Finns do not see what threatens them with joining one of the world's aggressive military blocs. After all, if such a decision is made, the country's borders, in a matter of months, will be overgrown with the defensive components of the American missile defense system, offensive military equipment. And these obviously unfriendly actions will certainly create tension between Finland and Russia. It is possible that Finland's accession to NATO will lead to a change in the global geopolitical situation in the entire region.

A reasonable question arises - why do the Finns need NATO, because they have been living without it for a long time?

First, the population of Finland is small (only five million people), although the country ranks fifth in Europe in terms of area. Finns are known to put the security of their country first, and they are ready to lose some of their sovereignty in favor of a strong defender.

Secondly, the Finns expect that by joining NATO they will raise their status and become significant, influencing the decision-making of the largest military-political European bloc, because any member of the North Atlantic alliance can block the actions of the military-political colossus.

But if the Finns fear for their safety, where do they think the threat comes from? According to the inhabitants of Finland, the first threat is terrorism. But the second is the imperial ambitions of Russia. But the fact that the polls show an annual decrease in the number of Finnish citizens who believe that the Russians will attack their country is encouraging - and today the "Atlantists" are in an absolute minority.

Finland positions itself as a neutral country. Experts say that joining NATO will inevitably turn it into a training ground for hosting military installations of other NATO member states. At the same time, this action has another - the economic side. After all, the deployment of American military bases on the territory of other countries is well paid by the United States, and the Finnish economy is also suffering from a global crisis that has engulfed almost all states of the world. However, the Finns have been participating in all military operations of the alliance for a long time, so we can, as it were, not talk about the neutrality of the country. As the events of recent years show, Finland really wants to participate in the formation of global politics, and NATO is the entrance door to this "magic world" for the Finns.

Currently, more than two thirds of the EU countries are members of the North Atlantic Alliance. In reality, Finland's accession to NATO will in no way affect the current level of EU pressure on Russia.

Experts predict that if Finland, having joined NATO, nevertheless refrains from placing foreign military bases on its territory, then relations with Russia will most likely remain the same - cooperation and good neighborliness. But if an American military contingent appears in Finland, this will be regarded by Russia as a direct military threat.

Flirting with NATO, Suomi is very interested in visiting their country by tourists from Russia and maintaining good neighborly and mutually beneficial relations with their eastern neighbor.

From the foregoing, we can assume the following variant of further events - Finland, most likely, will join the alliance, but will not deploy strategic weapons and large allied military formations on its territory.

A similar situation is developing in neighboring Sweden.

The kingdom of Sweden has been neutral for two hundred years. Sweden has the most powerful army among the neutral states. Five thousand conscripts join the country's army every year. If necessary, the Swedish military department can mobilize up to 60 thousand people. Swedish civil society has long been pushing for the abolition of conscription. In this situation, the country's leadership is thinking about joining NATO or another military alliance.

Sweden's long stay in a state of neutrality left its mark on the country's military doctrine. During the years of the existence of the USSR, the Swedish military doctrine was based on a defensive strategy and protecting the country from the "Soviet threat". At that time, Sweden could put up a millionth army, and NATO strategists took this into account in their plans. They were quite satisfied with Sweden, as a shield of the Scandinavian bridgehead and an ally of the North Atlantic bloc. The Swedish army also has equipment of its own production, and the Swedish JAS 39 Grifen fighters are even exported to countries such as the Czech Republic, Hungary and Norway. Members of the Swedish army are armed with Ak 5 and Ak 4 assault rifles produced in Swedish factories. Tank units are also provided with products of the local military-industrial complex - tanks Strv 121 and Strv 122. Sweden itself builds ships for its navy, including Visby-class corvettes and submarines. The quality of technology is such that the United States has leased diesel-electric submarines from Sweden, since American manufacturers have not been able to offer modern models of diesel submarines to the US Navy.

In the 1990s, the issue of Sweden's accession to NATO began to be openly discussed. In 1994, Sweden participated in the NATO Partnership for Peace program and this was the first and significant step of the Swedish kingdom towards the North Atlantic Alliance. Sweden was sure that in the event of a military conflict, NATO would come to the rescue, but more and more often Swedish officials dressed in power began to talk about the need for the country to join NATO. In connection with the NATO aggression in Iraq, the Swedish public did not support the initiative of the "Atlantists" - no one was pleased with the prospect of being in the Iraqi theater of operations. In Sweden, a social movement was growing, speaking under the slogan "NATO, get out of Sweden!". A public opinion poll showed that the majority of Swedes oppose the Kingdom's accession to NATO. But, despite the opinions of the citizens of their country, the Swedish army is actively cooperating with NATO, participating in numerous military exercises and joint operations with NATO in Yugoslavia and Afghanistan.

The issue of Sweden's accession to NATO also has an economic side. Even an army as small as Sweden's requires annual funding of $7 billion, which is 1.7% of GDP. The Swedes are not averse to shifting at least part of these expenses onto the shoulders of the allies. Therefore, the Swedes will continue cooperation with NATO. At the same time, Sweden will take all measures to increase its role in the military structure of the European Union and will try to become the leader of the Northern Battle Group.

It should also be noted that the governments of both countries are constitutionally bound on the issue of joining military blocs. Holding referendums, at present, does not make sense, since the majority of citizens of these countries are against the entry of their countries into NATO. In terms of financing, everything is not so simple either - NATO membership will require Sweden and Finland to increase their military budget, which these countries are currently not ready for.

Materials used:
http://mixednews.ru/archives/41794
http://expert.ru/countries/2008/02/vzovietsya_li_v_nato_shvedskiy_flag/
http://version.ru/regions/neva/2012/sep/13/finlandia_v_nato_nam_eto_nado
http://www.otechestvo.org.ua/main/20096/2716.htm
http://www.pravda.ru/world/europe/european/07-06-2012/1117468-suomi_nato-0/

If you look at the map of the Baltic Sea, where the areas for the exercises are indicated, it turns out that ... there are more ships of NATO and Sweden and Finland cooperating with it than the ships of the Baltic Fleet. If you count the military who take part in the September exercises of the West, there will be more of them than the official participants in the exercises of Russia and Belarus. True, there are fewer aircraft in the Baltic countries and the north-eastern region of Poland than on the maneuvers of the eastern neighbors, but in any case there are more of them than usual.

NATO did not become indifferent to the steps of a potential adversary, but, what a coincidence, it decided to conduct a series of exercises with partner countries that would show Russia that the Baltic Sea and coastal territories are not its property. The roles have been reversed: now Moscow is watching the West with ostentatious anxiety and spreading alarming reports in its media about the scale of Western exercises.

Sweden needs NATO, NATO needs Sweden

Sweden's military awakening made the most noise. September's Aurora exercise is not just the largest since the end of the Cold War: it will integrate Sweden's defense system with NATO and neighboring Finland, with which Stockholm has signed a special interim agreement, on an unprecedented scale.

The Swedes, a tough people with military traditions that we have come to know from our own experience, were seriously frightened when, after Russia attacked distant Ukraine, Russian bombers and submarines began to appear in the vicinity of Stockholm. This coincided with the alarmist articles that appeared in the press, telling about the disastrous state of the Swedish armed forces. Therefore, the Swedes pulled themselves together and planned exercises involving 19,000 people to work out a plan of action in the event of an attack from the east and the capture of the island of Gotland by the aggressor, which is considered a strategically important point for controlling the Baltic. A variety of military scenarios showed that the capture of Gotland and the deployment of long-range mobile missile systems there would block the possibility of air and sea operations within a radius of 500 kilometers and block the corridor of access to the Baltic countries and northern Poland. In a hypothetical battle for the so-called Suwalki Isthmus, this could turn out to be a matter of life and death.

Sweden, of course, is not a member of NATO and, unlike Finland, is not even considering the prospect of membership now, however, for the militarily integrated West, it remains a friendly-neutral country that, in the event of a serious crisis or war, will certainly behave with dignity. After weighing all the pros and cons, the Swedes themselves admitted that without the Americans and NATO, they would not be able to resist Russian aggression. Therefore, in their defense policy, they (regardless of their attitude towards the current US president) rely on the Americans and the strengthening of bilateral relations with members of the Alliance. There are reports that it is Sweden after Romania (and earlier than Poland) that will receive Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems, which, however, take part in the Aurora exercises in the form of one battery that arrived from Germany.

The map will not let you lie: without the help of the Swedes, NATO will not be able to maintain full control over the Baltic Sea. In turn, Sweden without NATO, and in particular Denmark, Germany and Norway located closest to it, will not be able to provide itself with the level of security to which it is accustomed. September also sees the naval exercise Northern Coasts, which outnumbers Russia's NATO forces in the Baltic Sea. These are 50 ships from 16 countries, including a permanent Alliance naval group (three frigates), as well as special forces, aircraft and helicopters, which are capable of conducting a wide variety of surface and underwater operations in conditions of intense conflict, that is, a clash with Russia . If you think about the last time so many NATO sailors appeared in the Baltic Sea, it turns out that it was ... in June during the Baltops exercises.

If the Alliance sends such naval forces to the same region for the second time in several months, this means that the role of the Baltic has increased, and the strengthened presence of the Alliance is becoming permanent there. These exercises were overshadowed only by an incident in the port of Karlskrona, which claimed the life of a Polish sailor.

US military in Poland

Best of all, however, the Americans decided to tease Russia in their usual style. Paying no particular attention to the Zapad exercises, they began to transfer to Poland a new shift of their tank brigade, which is with us on a rotational basis. The 3rd Brigade Combat Team of the 4th US Infantry Division from Colorado, which spent nine months on Polish soil, will go home, and the 2nd Brigade Combat Team of the 1st Infantry Division will arrive from Fort Riley in Kansas.

Staying in Poland for Americans is still a new experience, so posts with disturbing questions appear on social networks. However, I did not find a single one that would relate to the exercises "West". It is more about whether the iPhone charger will work in Polish sockets, whether it is worth taking an extra mattress or blanket with you, and, in general, whether Poland is a wild country. More experienced colleagues answer: everything works, there are no frosts, and the country is beautiful. Not a word about the threat of a Russian attack.

However, what deserves special attention is not what happens on the Internet, but what we see in the air and on the water. When the Colorado brigade went on its first watch in January, ro-ro ships delivered Abrams tanks, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Paladin self-propelled howitzers to the well-known safe West German port of Bremerhaven since the Cold War. Meanwhile, on the eve of the “West” exercise, which instills fear in everyone, a huge ship hiding American equipment in its belly arrived in Gdansk, Poland.

This is twice as close to Zagan as Bremerhaven, and let me remind you that soon the Americans will have to transfer vehicles to Poland for another brigade, which will be placed in Powidz. So it is better to work out the unloading of "iron" in the port of Gdansk in a timely manner, where such operations have never been carried out before. Throughout September, planes chartered by the US Army will fly to Poland, bringing 3,500 troops. From the airfields to the bases they will be delivered by buses ordered from private Polish carriers. If the soldiers were threatened by some kind of danger, we would not see flights or such trips.

Meanwhile, the Americans are increasing their vigilance just in case. On NATO duty in Lithuania, they sent not, as usual, four, but seven F-15 fighters. These devilishly fast and well-armed machines will be able to intercept any aircraft of the Russian Air Force. The pilots dubbed them mighty-mighty, which, perhaps, does not require translation.

Coincidentally, at the same time, the British sent two of their Eurofighter fighters to Estonia to accompany the Belgian F-16s. They, too, are capable of developing enough speed to drive off the Russian Su-30s. NATO's air policing mission in the Baltics suddenly began to grow, although there was no formal order to build up forces. In addition, the Polish F-16s, which were supposed to return to the Poznań-Kshesiny base, stopped in Malbork for several weeks. A little more than 100 kilometers to Kaliningrad from there, for F-16s flying at full speed - one instant. Internet users report that some incredible camps of our military radio technicians have appeared near the Belarusian border. You can believe it, you can not believe it: some tents and antennas are visible in the photographs. But it's all extremely secret.

Poland conducts its own exercises

However, we can say that Poland itself arranges larger exercises than the "West". 17,000 people will take part in the Dragon maneuvers. Let me remind you that according to official reports from Russia and Belarus, a little less than 13 thousand military personnel are involved in their exercises. No one in NATO, of course, believes in this, but this is exactly the data they reported to the OSCE, which monitors the exercises in Europe.

Formally, the Polish exercises are not a response to the "West", however, in military terms, they will broadly repeat last year's Anaconda maneuvers, which greatly angered Russia. She saw that American paratroopers could board their planes at home and land in a field near Polish Torun; that our allies need half an hour to build a crossing over the Vistula, and a whole tank brigade can pass through it; that American Abrams tanks feel great in Central Europe and all they need is camouflage in the colors of our forest, not the Iraqi desert. The Dragon exercises will not be as large-scale, but they will be attended by military personnel who have just sailed from the United States to Gdansk. The Baltic Sea will again be in the spotlight, as the maneuvers will work out the scenario of a conflict over energy supplies.

NATO has begun to respond to Russian military exercises. However, it still cannot transfer a hundred thousand people in three days or suddenly raise any brigade to its feet. In terms of maintaining constant combat readiness, Russia continues to maintain an advantage. Nevertheless, the Kremlin will certainly notice the awakening of the Alliance and may come to the conclusion that the confrontation does not make sense. It is important that NATO does not decide to rest on its laurels and let itself be fooled by the Russian “de-escalation” of which we are seeing symptoms.

Why Russia "West"

If the “West” exercises are exactly as wide as the Russians promised the OSCE, Western countries may decide that Russia is trustworthy and that it is time to end the sanctions. This may be followed by consent to the appearance of "blue helmets" in the Donbass. After Assad's position in the destroyed Syria is strengthened, the Russians will be ready to withdraw from the Middle East, they have already staged such a ostentatious operation once. If at the same time they promise Donald Trump to “fix” the North Korea case, the American president can make a deal. It is obvious that the military component of the "West" does not really matter, because Russia is constantly conducting exercises anyway. “The West” is the card that Moscow uses in a wide, perhaps even global, game. But we must control the card table ourselves.

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