Syria after Aleppo: possible scenarios for the development of the situation. "a turning point has occurred in the situation in Aleppo" The situation around Aleppo

Alexander Gelovani

The main goal of all the warring parties is the capital of Syria, Damascus, one of the most important centers of the Islamic world and history. There is no Syria without Damascus, but the point is that without Aleppo there is no Damascus.

All the military, and not just military experts, understand the simple truth - if the Syrian government loses Aleppo, this will mean more than just losing control over the north of the country. Damascus will be the next offensive point for the armed opposition, both Islamist and "moderate".

All roads lead to Aleppo

It is no coincidence that the civil, or to be more precise, the religious war in Syria began precisely with Aleppo. Already in February 2012, two explosions thundered in Aleppo, which blew up the peace and stability not only of this city, but of the whole country. The parties, as usual, blamed each other for the attacks, and the Syrian security forces made an attempt to clear the city of militants who suddenly appeared there. However, this only delayed the onset of the tragedy. In April, thousands of people protested against the authorities in the city, and the first armed groups of militants appeared in the vicinity of the city. And in June, street fighting broke out in the city. The main force opposing the then Syrian government forces was the newly emerged Free Syrian Army. Most experts classify this formation as a moderate opposition. The Free Syrian Army is openly supported by Turkey. Aleppo has been at war for four years since then. According to the scenario, Aleppo was given the same role as Benghazi in Libya once was - to make a stronghold of the armed opposition, create a resource base around it and use a springboard for a subsequent attack on Damascus. However, things did not go well in Syria initially.

Unlike Libya, with its relatively homogenous religious and ethnic composition of the population, in Syria behind the government of Bashar al-Assad there is a large religious group of Alawites, numbering at least two and a half million people. In addition, about 9% of the population of Syria are Kurds, and their large communities are in all major cities, including Aleppo. Not to mention representatives of other ethnic and religious minorities, such as Armenians, Druze, Catholic Arabs, and so on. For all of them, the victory of the Sunni majority in Syria did not bode well, and given the fact that they were well aware of the events in neighboring Iraq, many of them, and especially the Alawites, see this war as a war for survival.

In turn, the Syrian Sunnis remember very well all the insults inflicted by the Alawite government of Assad since he came to power. And again, the position of the Iraqi Sunnis after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein also caused concern among the main ethno-religious group in Syria.

Long distance run

Contrary to popular belief, the armed forces of the opposition have never been able to completely capture Aleppo. In 2012-2015, the opposition managed to capture only the eastern part of Aleppo, while the western part remained under the control of government forces. Further street fighting and fighting in the vicinity of Aleppo went with varying degrees of success. It is clear that in such a "long-distance race" the resource base was of decisive importance. Whoever has more is the winner.

By the fall of 2015, despite the active assistance of Iran and its allies from the Hezbollah group, the government's resource base was clearly inferior to that of the opposition. Moreover, among the armed opposition, the first violin was no longer played by the “moderate” Free Syrian Army, but by Islamist armed formations, unofficially supported by individual clans of the Gulf monarchies. In Aleppo, the Jabhat al-Nusra unit of the well-known Al Qaeda became the main military force. One way or another, it was clear that in this scenario, the Assad government would not last long. However, in the fall of 2015, the situation changed dramatically.

The change in the situation is connected with the beginning of Russia's direct involvement in the Syrian conflict. For. To understand how much this circumstance turned the situation upside down, imagine a picture of the Thirty Years' War in Europe in the 17th century, especially since that war was also a religious one. The Battle of Standmütz, the troops of Albrecht von Wallenstein deal a decisive blow to the Protestant army of Gabor Bethlen, and then iron birds appear in the sky, spewing hell and flames at the “good Catholics”. I think that in this situation, the results of not only the Battle of Standmütz, but the war in general, would be somewhat different.

Approximately the same thing, with a discount for the conventionality of any historical analogy, happened in Syria. The appearance of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the Syrian theater of operations, of course, saved the Syrian government from inevitable defeat. However, little has changed in the situation around Aleppo today. It is necessary to understand well that to knock out well-armed, who know the terrain like the back of their hand, and most importantly, militants ready to die from a city of almost a million people (albeit half of the city), in the presence of a huge number of civilians, most of whom, by the way, support these same militants , the task is extremely difficult. Even with aviation, it is extremely difficult.

If you want peace, prepare for war

A couple of months ago, government forces, together with Kurdish formations, Iranian commandos and Hezbollah units, managed to close the siege around Aleppo. However, the situation soon changed dramatically. The militants again managed to break through the blockade ring in the area of the artillery base in Ramousse (Aleppo region). This was preceded by political actions in the militant camp. The head of Jabhat al-Nusra, Muhammad Julani, officially renounced the oath of al-Qaeda and united all Islamist forces inside Aleppo under a single command.

After the blockade was broken, the Islamists quarreled among themselves, and the government forces again closed the blockade ring, this time, as it seems, quite firmly.

However, this does not mean anything, fierce battles go on without much progress on a small patch of several blocks. The use of aviation is also becoming more and more difficult, the West constantly accuses Russia of bombing the civilian population of Aleppo, although to figure out where the civilians are in this meat grinder. and where not, it is almost impossible.

All previous truces and ceasefires in Aleppo ended in nothing. That is, not quite anything, after the regrouping of forces, the parties again began to destroy each other. Now, in the conditions of a truce, local battles are taking place in the south of Aleppo, in the 1070 quarter, which can be considered an attempt to break the blockade, but nothing more, and on the line of contact between government forces and Islamists inside the city.

Both clashes are in the nature of intermittent skirmishes without any progress. According to officials, the Castello road is open for the evacuation of civilians, however, there is no mass flow of evacuees. It is not known for certain when this truce will end, but, unfortunately, it is well known how it will end - with new battles.

1. The attack of the SAA, Hezbollah and Liwa al-Quds in the southern part of Ramuseh and in the area of the cement plant did not bring any special achievements. The Lebanese lost 1 T-72 and 1 cart, another 1 T-72 was damaged. The militants lost one cart. The situation is in a state of unstable equilibrium. The militants firmly hold the northern part of Ramuseh, the bakery, the city hall and the post office. The garage area is now practically empty, Noureddin an Zinki has concentrated its main forces in the area of the gas station and the cement plant. Also, the Fallah al-Sham militants repelled the SAA attack on the Tal-Makhrukat hill covering the road from Khan-Tuman to Ramuseh.

2. An-Nusra did not dare to attack Hamadania and the buildings of 3000 today, although it was announced yesterday. Also, the militants were not able to completely capture building 1070. Here the situation remained approximately the same as in the morning. Due to this, the highway passing through Ramuseh remained in the contested territory, at the moment both sides are not able to use it.

3. The artillery base is completely controlled by the militants, and today during the day it has been bombarded with shells and bombs without any pity. The effect of the bombings is still difficult to assess. The Hikma school, Amiriya hill, Tal-Makhrukat, the area west of the stone quarries were also bombed.

4. Due to the ongoing fighting in the Ramuseh area and the situation around the number buildings, there is still no transport corridor for supplying Aleppo. The SAA grouping in the area of the Al-Assad Academy hung on a long circuitous route tied on the Hanasser-Aleppo highway. The road has been closed for civilian traffic for the 2nd day - reinforcements continue to push through it in Aleppo. The arrival of 2,000 Shiite volunteers through the Harakat al-Nuzhba grouping from Iraq has been announced to the southeastern front. The transfer of the Hezbollah infantry regiment from the southern regions of Syria was also announced. Obviously, the Syrians do not have enough of their high-quality infantry, so they have to strain the Shiite line, which is in charge of Iran. For good, now an Iranian brigade of regulars would not interfere there, but Iran, like the Russian Federation, prefers to dose its participation in the ground campaign. As a result, an amusing conflict sometimes arises when Iraqi/Afghan/Palestinian Shiites fight near Aleppo with Uzbek Sunnis or Chinese Uyghurs "for democracy/for the Assad regime." As the mobilization resource of Syria itself becomes impoverished, the role of replenishment from abroad (specially trained) is gradually increasing.

5. Generally speaking, the parties today were clearly unable to maintain the furious pace of the battle on August 6 and were recovering from yesterday's losses and stubborn fighting. The bloody day promised by An-Nusroy against the background of August 6 turned out to be much less bloody. As a result, the parties remained roughly on their own and the operational crisis around the supply of Aleppo still did not receive its resolution, but it is obvious that it cannot continue for so long and someone will have to give in. Judging by the fact that both sides continue to drive reinforcements to the southwestern regions of Aleppo, it is planned to resolve the crisis by force, which we will see in the coming days.

PS. Some fresh photos and videos uploaded to Twitter

Boris Rozhin.

1. Agreed last night and the plan for the remnants of the militants to leave for Idlib, which began to be implemented, was covered with a copper basin in the morning, because some of the militants did not want to leave and again opened fire on the positions of the Syrian army. The army naturally did not become silent and the remnants of the militants again began to clean up. No matter how the West did not try to save them, but if the characters do not want to be saved, then apparently they only have a road to the ground, because there is no other way with rabid animals. So, despite the fact that the city has been taken for 2 days, shooting is still going on in some quarters. As for me, it's even good that they refused to leave - now they can be put to rest with a clear conscience and no one can say that they were not offered a "humanitarian alternative". However, the West does not intend to understand such subtleties and continues to hysteria about "war crimes in Aleppo", thus trying to belittle the fact and significance of the victory of Syria, Russia and Iran in Aleppo.

2. Regarding reports of attacks from An-Nusra (a terrorist group banned in the Russian Federation) and the FSA on the western borders of Aleppo, they no longer pose a serious threat, because there is nowhere to break through, and a frontal assault on the positions of the SAA in the city is possible only welcome, because in such attacks the militants lose much more people than if they were pulled out of the next settlement. However, the militants are not particularly persistent and rather indicate activity, focusing on shelling Syrian positions with mortars and homemade rockets. They haven't made much progress in the last two days. The reasons for this are trivial - the reserves that burned down in October and November in the battles for the Al-Assad Academy, there is nothing special to compensate for, and it’s not even the losses in personnel that are critical, but the fact that in recent months the most trained militant units suffered heavy losses, where there was a large percentage professional mercenaries and veterans of the Syrian war. Recruits from training camps in Idlib can only partially replace them. The value of experienced and skillful infantry was recently clearly demonstrated near Palmyra. It is very likely that this will still affect subsequent battles to the west and southwest of Aleppo.

3. In Aleppo itself, 360 more militants handed over their weapons in a day, some were amnestied, some were sent for filtration. Also, several thousand more civilians took refuge in the basements in areas where scattered groups of militants remain who are trying to mix with refugees or use them as a shield to continue trading with the Syrian command. Some units from Aleppo continue to be withdrawn and transferred to the eastern regions of the Homs province, where a tense situation persists due to the advance of the Caliphate.

Eastern regions of Aleppo. UAV footage.

Sheikh Said.

in the liberated areas. One of the militants found a belt with explosives.

Syrian correspondent and civilians.

Mosque of the Umayyads.

Material Read us at

According to news agencies, nine districts of the Syrian city of Aleppo are currently under heavy shelling by militants. Dozens of victims are taken to hospitals every day.

Noting that the ceasefire agreement "promised to be a measure of mutual trust in Washington's relationship with Moscow," The Wall Street Journal states: "During a turbulent, heavily-fought week in Syria, the parties failed to overcome the distrust and enmity that quarreled them." .

The newspaper reminds: the coalition forces under the leadership of the United States mistakenly bombed the positions of the Syrian army, which angered Moscow. Then an airstrike on a humanitarian convoy, which the US blamed on Russia, escalated tensions. The friendly relationship between John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov fell victim to circumstances, the publication claims, noting, citing a US State Department official, that Kerry and Lavrov have not spoken since Friday and no meetings are scheduled between them.

The Wall Street Journal notes that in order to organize joint operations against Islamist groups, Russia and the United States would have to overcome strong mutual distrust. In particular, both sides fear that the exchange of military information poses a strong risk to the intelligence services.

“What is happening in Syria is a shame for Europe,” Sueddeutsche Zeitung quoted Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference, as saying. “It’s too easy to point fingers at Russians or Americans.”

The Europeans "failed because they failed to realize their responsibility," continued the German diplomat. He believes that “warring parties can be forced to change their minds through political and economic incentives,” and therefore “if the ceasefire is respected, Europe could promise to invest tens of billions in the reconstruction of Syria.”

The New York Times notes that Russia has avoided getting "bogged down" in the Syrian conflict, but it seems that Moscow does not intend to get out of it. At the same time, Bashar al-Assad's government troops are too weak to win the war, and the bombing of the Russian Aerospace Forces will not solve this problem, the newspaper said. And he concludes: “Ultimately, the deadlock in Syria is a little more favorable for Assad, but it still remains a deadlock.”

“Putin is in a strong position, because he has made his country a significant power in the Middle East, which acts on an equal footing with the United States,” Der Spiegel argues. “However, Putin will not want to continue this war indefinitely: unlike Ukraine, most Russians are skeptical about the Syrian operation. Moreover, according to estimates, intervention in Syria costs Russia 3 million euros daily.”

According to Hürriyet, there is no talk of a conflict between the US and Russia in Syria, because for the US "Syria is not a strategic issue, their long-term strategic goal is the Asia-Pacific region, to which they are gradually reorienting." At the same time, the Turkish newspaper believes that for the United States and the “anti-ISIS coalition” headed by them, the priority in the Middle East is oil, therefore the primary issue for them is not so much Syria as oil-rich Iraq.

All this means, continues Hürriyet, that "the US will not enter into any long-term conflict with Russia in Syria, and if Turkey is building any long-term game in Syria, it must take into account Russia's strategic priorities."

The only sure way to stop the bloodshed in Syria is for America to conduct a large-scale military intervention using ground forces, according to The Financial Times, but points out that "after the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, there is no reason to believe that the American public will support such an intervention."

Military operations in East Aleppo have been stopped, the city is under the control of the Syrian government. Vitaly Churkin, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN, spoke about this at a meeting of the Security Council of the world organization. It is difficult to overestimate the significance of this victory. Aleppo is the economic capital of Syria and the second largest city in the country. It is no coincidence that the Islamists fought so desperately for every quarter of the metropolis. Its capture will radically change the balance of power in the theater of operations and will be a turning point in the Syrian conflict.

With the return of control over Aleppo, the war will not end. The Syrian tangle of contradictions is too tangled. And too many interests and forces converged on this earth. In addition, Aleppo will still have to be kept. After all, the militants are unlikely to accept defeat. Terrorist attacks are likely in the city and attempts to break through from the outside are not ruled out, as happened in Palmyra. Analysts identify two main scenarios for the further development of events - military and peaceful.

Having carried out such a difficult military task as the capture of Aleppo, government troops, of course, will believe in their strength. After all, before the storming of the city, they were scattered and had no experience of such operations. And here we must pay tribute to the Russian military: in a short time they managed to create combat-ready formations from the “militias”.

On the side of the pro-government forces, both the Palestinians and the special forces "Tiger" (detachments of Colonel Suheil), and the Syrian militia are now fighting. Before the battles in Aleppo, a very large amount of organizational work was carried out, these units were sifted, initiative commanders were appointed, capable of raising people to the attack. Units and subunits are equipped with equipment, weapons and ammunition. And behind all these battles in Aleppo one can feel the firm hand of a military leader with the appropriate qualifications.

On the wave of success, government forces will certainly try to develop an advantage and free as many settlements occupied by the Islamists as possible. Of course, the capture of Palmyra by militants made its own adjustments to the plans of the pro-government coalition. And her release will be paramount. According to Vyacheslav Matuzov, President of the Society for Friendship and Business Cooperation with Arab Countries, Deir ez-Zor and Al-Hasek should also be unblocked and government control over Raqqa should be established first of all.

Using the example of Aleppo, the militants will have to understand that the Syrian leadership is determined. In addition, unlike Aleppo, it will be easier to carry out operations to liberate the rest of the territories occupied by ISIS - these are sparsely populated areas, desert territories, where it is more difficult for militants to hide from air attacks.

Any war ends in peace. And the Syrian conflict is no exception. After the capture of Aleppo, the warring parties have a chance to stop hostilities, sit down at the negotiating table and try to find a peaceful way out of the situation, no matter how difficult it may be. Moreover, in the current situation, this will be the most beneficial outcome for all. And last but not least - for Russia.

We cannot get bogged down in this Syrian war in any way, and we need to enter the peaceful stage of resolving the Syrian confrontation as soon as possible," Khodarenok said. - The capture of the eastern part of Aleppo is an important stage in the implementation of this plan, since Aleppo is actually the capital of the armed opposition, although Raqqa is nominally considered such. This is a very important link in the transition to the settlement of the conflict and its peaceful resolution.

As a method of settling the inter-ethnic conflicts that are tearing the country apart, some experts propose the development of a new constitution by the All-Syrian Forum. The main objective of this consensus decision is the preservation of Syria as a single secular state under the control of secular authorities. And no federalization - an exceptionally wide cultural autonomy.

But not all parties to the conflict will agree to such an outcome of the war. Moreover, the actual state of affairs dictates a somewhat different formula for a peace treaty.

“After the capture of Aleppo, one must understand that Syria as a single state will no longer exist,” Bagdasarov commented on the situation. - And taking into account the nuances that exist there, we need to think about creating a federation consisting of three parts: the territory controlled by Damascus, the territory that will be controlled, relatively speaking, by the Syrian Free Army, but in fact by all those who work under the United States and Turkey, and the third is the federation of Northern Syria. How to find a balance between them in order to maintain the appearance of a single state is the biggest question.”

The main opponents of keeping Syria within its former borders are the Kurds. They will not give up their long-term dream of their own statehood. And in the negotiations about the fate of Syria, undoubtedly, they will seek independence. But perhaps not immediately, but through the stage of autonomy.

“When the Kurds talk about autonomy, they mean independence,” Bagdasarov stressed. “Autonomy will be an intermediate factor.”

The Syrian leadership understands all this, and moreover, understands that it would be crazy to fight the Kurds. Therefore, the search for a compromise at a certain stage is inevitable, although everything will be done to ensure that Syria remains a single state. And to appease the Kurds, they will be offered broad cultural autonomy within the country. But all this political game can be limited to a play on words. And cultural autonomy will actually turn out to be actual autonomy.

One of the most pressing issues that will have to be resolved after Aleppo is the fate of Assad.

“When the territories of western Syria are taken under control, the issue of replacing Bashar al-Assad will become a key one,” Mardasov said. - Talking to him will be difficult for many players. The head of the country should be a person representing the ethnic majority.”

However, Assad's resignation will not be discussed immediately. This will be ambiguously perceived by the Syrians who fought under his banner. A transitional stage could be the redistribution of powers between the President and the Prime Minister.

So far, Assad is not ready to make compromises, but the need to attract investment to the country to rebuild the destroyed cities and economy will force Damascus to show flexibility on certain issues. In addition, military dependence on Russia should also make Assad more accommodating.

After the capture of Aleppo, Russia can largely consider its task in Syria completed.

“The capture of Aleppo will mean that we have solved the main problem: Assad remained in power and controls the bulk of the country's territory. We are not able to carry out the task further, we cannot wage war forever,” Bagdasarov said.

We will emerge from this conflict not only with an army enriched with invaluable combat experience that has demonstrated its combat capability to the envy of the whole world, but we will also receive two military bases on Syrian territory - a naval one in the city of Tartus and an air force one in Khmeimim, which will further provide our influence in the region.