Probability of death from various causes. Bicycle accident

signal and noise. Why some predictions come true and others don't Silver Nate

The probability of dying from a lightning strike is getting smaller

When Hawke first started his career in the mid-1970s, the anecdotes about weather forecasters were not far from the truth. For example, in NWS weather forecasts made over three days, the maximum deviation from the predicted temperature was about 6 °F (Figure 4.4). This is not much better than making a forecast based on a simple examination of a table of long-term averages. However, the partnership between man and machine can bring considerable dividends. These days, the average error is about 3.5°F—in other words, it's about half that size. Forecasters are also much better at predicting abnormal weather events.

Rice. 4.4. Error in determination of average monthly maximum temperature in NWS forecasts

What is the probability of getting a fatal lightning strike? In fact, the value of this indicator is not a constant value, which depends, for example, on the probability that you will be outside at the time of the lightning strike. In 1940, the probability of an American being struck by lightning in a given year was about 1 in 400,000(269). Today, the probability of this event is only 1 in 11,000,000 (that is, its value has decreased by almost 30 times). This is partly due to lifestyle changes (more work being done from home these days) and better communication in technology and healthcare, but it's also due to weather forecasts becoming more accurate.

Perhaps the most impressive advances have been made in hurricane prediction. Just 25 years ago, when the National Hurricane Center attempted to predict the location of a hurricane in the next three days, the error range averaged 560 km(270). It's too much. Draw, say, a circle with a radius of 560 km around New Orleans, and it will cover all points from Houston, Texas to Tallahassee, Florida (Figure 4.5). It is simply impossible to evacuate people from such a large area.

Rice. 4.5. Improving the quality of forecasting the behavior of hurricanes

Today, the margin of error is about a hundred miles, which means that our circle will cover only southeast Louisiana and the southern border of the Mississippi. From time to time, hurricanes will knock out of this zone, but now in most cases it makes sense for us to pay attention to a noticeably smaller zone in area, from which residents can be evacuated in 72 hours. By comparison, in 1985 only forecasts made less than 24 hours before the event provided the same degree of accuracy. This means that we now have an additional two days before the hurricane hits - and as we will see later, when evacuating a city like New Orleans, every hour is critical.

The Weather Service has not yet succeeded in getting rid of the Demon Laplace, but it is quite possible to believe that it deserves more recognition than is commonly believed. The science of weather forecasting is developing quite successfully, despite all the problems associated with the peculiarities of meteorological conditions. You will see repeatedly throughout this book that this is the exception rather than the rule when making forecasts (so save your jokes for economists).

The efforts of the National Weather Service are often underestimated. It faces stiff competition from private companies(271) operating in very different environments. Unlike all other players, the Weather Service must make its simulation data available free of charge to anyone (most other countries with good weather bureaus sell licenses or charge a fee to use their data). Private companies like AccuWeather and the Weather Channel can then use them as a basis for developing their own products and commercializing them. The vast majority of consumers receive forecasts from one of the private providers; The Weather Channel website (Weather.com) has about ten times the traffic of Weather.gov(272).

In general, I am a big proponent of competition in the free market, or competition between public and private companies. It was largely thanks to competition that baseball developed rapidly and was able to better combine the knowledge of scouts and statisticians in predicting the development of players.

As you can see, in baseball the idea of competition is more clear - how many balls you win (or the ratio of balls won and lost). In weather forecasting, the situation is somewhat more complex, and private and public forecasters had different tasks.

From the book Forward to the USSR-2! author Kalashnikov Maxim

CHAPTER 12 The National Idea, or Direction of the Main Strike “What do you propose for Russia anyway? they ask me. - We perfectly understood your idea that our country does not have the usual ways of salvation. That our state and the oligarchs are rubbish. To be honest, you

From the book Genocide of the Russian people author Kalashnikov Maxim

Chapter 6. The National Idea, or the Direction of the Main Strike “What do you propose for Russia anyway? they ask me. - We perfectly understood your idea that our country does not have the usual ways of salvation. That our state and the oligarchs are rubbish. To be honest, you

From the book Alexander the Great or The Book of God author Druon Maurice

XVI. Like Lightning Freed from the yoke of Philip, Greece believed that the hand of Alexander would not be so heavy for her. Not more than a week passed before a revolt was already planned in Thessaly; one of the colonies in the south of Epirus expelled the Macedonian garrison; Arcadia and Aetolia announced

From the book Analysis of the Chechen Crisis author Meilanov Vazif Sirazhutdinovich

4. “The war in Chechnya increased the likelihood of Russia turning into a police state” (Gaidar, Kovalev) Again, in my opinion, the thesis is directly opposite to the truth and shows a misunderstanding by the authors of the essence of what is happening in Russia and in the world.

From the book Man in the Moon? What evidence? author Popov Alexander Ivanovich

The less you talk about the landing, the less you fall into melancholy Judging by some signs, the burden of fame pressed on the pioneers unevenly, and based on the principle - “the less you talk about the landing, the more wholesome the nerves.”

From the book Baptism by Fire. Volume II: "The Struggle of the Giants" author Kalashnikov Maxim

CHAPTER 3 On the Edge of the Main Strike The Cold Winds of the Eighties From the very beginning, Reagan and his men launched a risky attack on the verge of a foul. As if the times of the Second World War and the very beginning of the Cold War had returned. They resurrected the cocky spirit of Hitler in Munich. Only

From the book Project Russia. big idea author Shalyganov Yury Viktorovich

Chapter 3. Probability The higher the probability of an event, the more a person takes it into account. And vice versa: the lower the probability, the more it is ignored. After a certain minimum, the probability of an event is considered zero for practice. In theory

From the book Literaturnaya Gazeta 6327 (No. 23 2011) author Literary Newspaper

Direction of the main blow Living and dead Direction of the main blow BOOK ROW L.I. Fialkovsky. Stalingrad apocalypse. Tank brigade in hell. – M.: Yauza: Eksmo, 2011. – 448 p. - (Great Patriotic War: Unknown War). - 4500 copies. The feat of the defenders

From the book Putin's swing author Pushkov Alexey Konstantinovich

Kasyanov escapes from the blow Talk about the clouds, as if gathering over Kasyanov, does not seem to have any particular grounds. Yesterday, during Putin's speech to the Federal Assembly, lightning and thunder did not fall on the prime minister's head from the president's mouth. This

From the book New Oprichnina, or Modernization in Russian author Kalashnikov Maxim

Two converging blows The question is: we need a complete victory over corruption! An excuse like “no one in the world could do this” is not accepted. The question is about the life and death of Russian civilization. Only a complete and merciless victory - and nothing else! Of course, the laws

From the book Death (June 2009) author Russian life magazine

Mikhail Kharitonov Die, perish, die Dance of life

From the book Fiction Lovers Club, 2009 author Ksionzhek Vladislav

Andrey Krasnobaev PROBABILITY OF ERRORS - The history of the creation of androids is paved with dozens of human lives, piled on the altar of their own mistakes, empty hopes and overestimated opportunities. With this on-duty phrase, Al began his two-hour lecture on

From the book Literaturnaya Gazeta 6483 (No. 41 2014) author Literary Newspaper

On the direction of the main blow Dmitry Zhukov. Selected works in two volumes. T. I. Laughter and sorrow. 448 p. T. II. Fiery. - M.: Ed. "Planet", 2013. - 448 p. - 700 copies. At the beginning of 1972, a set of Dmitry Zhukov's novel "Protopop

From the book France and the French. What guidebooks are silent about by Clark Stefan

Striking Nationwide strikes are usually cause for celebration. The strikers take to the streets and arrange a carnival procession. Union banners are flying everywhere and leaflets are flying with calls to join professional associations.

From the book Signal and Noise. Why do some predictions come true and others don't? by Silver Nate

Chapter 8 Less and less and less inaccuracies

From the author's book

Probability and Progress It is worth noting how similar this statement is to Bayes' words in Divine Benevolence, which argued that we should not attribute our own imperfection to God's faults. However, in Bayesian philosophy,

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What more often kills people around the world - accidents or diseases?Why do some people win the fight against deadly diseases, while others die?

Why do I risk dying every day?

This is a question from Rude Austin of Petersham, New South Wales.

Each of us is in danger of dying every day. It doesn't matter how carefully we try to protect ourselves from danger, because much that we come into contact with can be fatal. Based on information provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and a book by Les Krantz What Are Our Chances: Everything You Hoped For Or Feared From A To I, the probability of causing damage to our health in everyday life was calculated.

If you were born in present-day Australia, you would probably live to about 75.7 years (a little more for women, a little less for men).

The chances that you will be struck by lightning today are 1:250,000,000, and that this will happen in your lifetime is 1:9100.

The chances of you being attacked by a shark today are astronomically small. There is a 1:1,000,000 chance that she will attack you during your lifetime. However, if this happens, you will only be able to escape 30% of the time.

The probability that you will die this year is 1:119. Cause of death can be heart disease (1:3), cancer (1:5), stroke (1:14), lung disease (1:29), pneumonia (1:32), diabetes (1:58) and liver disease (1:83).

The probability of dying in a car accident is 1:125. The chance of dying in a car crash on your next possible trip is about 1 in 4,000,000. The chance of dying from being hit by a car is highest at only 6 years old. At the age of six, about 1 in 12,500 boys and 1 in 25,000 girls are killed by cars.

The probability of crashing on the next plane flight is less than 1:4,600,000.

The probability of dying in<этом году при пожаре в собственном доме равна 1:100 000. того, что вы будете искалечены, - 1:1400. Вероятность пожара в вашем доме в этом году равна 1:200, и если такое произойдет - 3:10, что причиной пожара послужило курение. Если пожар все‑таки случился, в 1 из 77 случаев вы получите травму или ожог.

The probability of dying in a fall is 1:200,000. If you are over 80, the probability increases to 1:2,000, and if you are over 90, it is 1:570.

The odds of you having a brain tumor this year is 1:25,000. But if that happens, the odds of it being malignant is 4:1. If for any reason you have to undergo brain surgery, your chances of survival are 33:1.

If you've had a heart attack or stroke, you have a 1:3 chance of making a full recovery, a 1:3 chance of permanent damage to your health, and a 1:3 chance of dying.

The chances of you committing suicide this year is 1:580. If you try to do this, the probability of success is 1:14. Over your lifetime, the chance of successfully killing yourself is 1:73. - The chance that you will need a heart transplant in your lifetime is 1:3000. If you need a heart donor, the chance of finding one is 1:1 and the chance of a successful operation is 7:10. If it was successful, then the chances that you will live another 5 years with a new heart are 1:1.

The chance of needing a liver transplant in a lifetime is 1:2000; the probability of a kidney transplant is 1:365; the probability of corneal transplantation is 1:95.

The probability that you will go blind or your vision will deteriorate dramatically is 7:1000.

You can start smoking 4 times out of 10. If you become addicted, then 7 out of 10 times you will try to quit smoking and 3 out of 10 times you will succeed.

The rate of skin cancer in Australia is the highest in the world. There is a 1 in 460 chance of being diagnosed this year. The likelihood that this year you will be diagnosed with a deadly form of skin cancer - malignant melanoma. - is equal to 1:6805, and the fact that this year you will die from it is 1:22407. If you are diagnosed with malignant melanoma, then the probability of dying from it is 1:3.

There is a 3:10 chance that you will have mental health problems at some point in your life.

In 1 out of 8 cases you may become an alcoholic, in 7 out of 9 you will suffer from a serious phobia, in 1 out of 16 you will suffer from major depression, and in 1 out of 50 you will be diagnosed with a mental deterioration disorder.

The chance of you getting schizophrenia is 1:167.

The lifetime probability of contracting tuberculosis is 1:11,000.

You have a very low chance of getting malaria, but if you do get malaria, you have a 1 in 40 chance of dying from it, especially if treatment is delayed.

The chance of getting leprosy this year is 1:548,000.

The probability of dying as a result of the fact that the Earth will be destroyed by a meteorite colliding with it is 1:9000.

Most of us live with these risks, yet we get out of bed every morning and take a shower no matter what. And finally, the probability of dying in the shower this year is 1:685,000 25, 26 .

Fatal diseases are much more common among men. Chronic diseases are much more common among women.

calculate, what mode of transport is the safest, not so easy. To build a beautiful and visual graph, at least two indicators are required - the number of dead or injured, as well as the number of people who use this type of transport. For air, rail and water transport, finding this data is not difficult, because thanks to tickets, each person is taken into account. But there are problems with road transport. Tracking the movement of the average Russian from work, to work and to the store is not possible - after all, no one passes registration to leave on the threshold of their home.

Our transport safety rating according to statistics for 2018 was compiled using various sources - from the data of the National Union of Insurers, which keep statistics on registered insured events from 2012 to the present, to data on traffic accidents on the Rosstat website.

> 200 deaths per 1.6 billion km

Although the number of motorcycle accidents has decreased by more than 70% since 2005, the motorcycle still remains one of the most dangerous modes of transport. According to statistics, it turns out that every 1.6 billion kilometers of the way are paid for by the lives of more than two hundred drivers and their passengers.

A motorcycle, like another two-wheeled vehicle - a bicycle - is characterized by increased vulnerability, so accidents involving motorcyclists are highly likely to end sadly. The reason is non-compliance with the rules of the road, and, surprisingly, the fundamental refusal of some drivers to use a helmet.

5.75 people per 1.6 billion km

In second place in the number of road accidents are private cars. In total, at least 5.75 people die in 1.6 billion kilometers of the way.

The reasons are both the unwillingness of drivers to comply with the rules of the road, and the condition of the roadway, the increased wear and tear of the vehicle fleet due to the crisis and the deterioration in the purchasing power of the population. And also (due to the increase in the average age of life) and the aging of drivers. All these factors together serve as a guarantee that road transport in Russia will not be safe for a long time to come.

9.4 deaths per 1 million passengers

Among air transport, the greatest danger to human life is not international, but intercity. Especially if a person in a helicopter is forced to go to those parts where even the notorious Makar prefers not to drive his calves. Perhaps this is the reason for such a high number of casualties among helicopter passengers. For every 1 million people, at least 9.4 are injured. You will have to fall from a great height, and, with a high degree of probability, the injuries will be incompatible with life.

5 dead per 1.5 billion km

Fixed-route taxis are by no means the safest form of transport in Russia. According to statistics, every 1.5 billion kilometers traveled by a minibus are paid for with five human lives. Among the reasons can be named both the work of drivers for wear and tear, and the design miscalculations of minibuses, the condition of the roads, the unwillingness to follow the rules of the road and drunk driving.

2.84 injured per 1 million transported

In 2018, there were several major accidents involving intercity buses, including a tragic accident in the Voronezh region, when two buses collided, five people died and 17 were injured. injured or killed at least 2.84. In total, in 2018, trips on intercity buses brought death to more than 600 passengers, and more than 13 thousand people were injured.

2.3 accidents per 1 million passengers

This category includes both international ships and domestic river carriers. In total, in 2018, 62 incidents occurred during sea and river travel, which ended tragically for five people. In general, according to NSS statistics, for every million passengers carried, there are 2.3 accidents.

Passengers on sea and river vessels are threatened not only by the elements of water, but also by fire. One of the most common causes of transport accidents is a sudden outbreak of fire on board a ship, usually caused by a faulty electrical wiring. This is not surprising, given that the Russian domestic fleet is in a deplorable state, and almost a third of the ships have celebrated 40 years of operation.

Probability of dying: 1:11,000,000

The safest transport in the world, however, in Russia it is not possible to obtain accurate statistics on the number of accidents per number of passengers. The data of the National Association of Insurers, on which we relied when assessing the risk of other modes of transport, are not available for them. The reason is the peculiarities of the insurance system in Russia; most air transport companies carry their passengers not only within the country, but also abroad. Therefore, they use international insurance policies.

That's why the plane is the safest mode of transport: according to statistics, the odds of dying in an accident on board an aircraft are 1 in 11 million. For comparison: the chances of being struck by lightning while walking in a thunderstorm are 16 times higher!

0.17 accidents per 1 million passengers

This category includes both intercity and international trains, as well as ordinary commuter trains. In general, for 2018, the statistics for Russian Railways look excellent - for almost the entire year, from January to November, only seven accidents were registered. Unfortunately, there were no deaths - one person died. In general, there are no more than 0.17 accidents per 1 million passengers.

More and more people prefer to use one of the safest modes of transport, and this cannot be explained by price alone. After all, for some destinations, the cost of plane and train tickets is almost equal. According to the Russian Railways website, in 2018, almost 8% more passengers were transported on long-distance trains than last year. And the growth in the number of passengers on electric trains amounted to almost 3%.

0.09 cases per million transported

Trolleybus is in second place in terms of safety among modes of transport in Russia. According to NSS statistics, there are only 0.09 accidents for every million passengers carried. Most of them are banal “stumbled and fell”.

The reasons for the low injury rate of a trolleybus are very simple - its volume and weight, as well as its low speed. In a collision, for example, with a car, the car will have much worse. And the passengers of the trolleybus will get off with light bruises.

Probably many would answer the question “how would you prefer to die?” taken away - "to fall asleep and not wake up." Indeed, such a transition to another world can be called painless, and perhaps the most desirable, but ... Death is a natural process, the cause of death is not always natural. Accidents, traffic accidents and much more, which often does not give a healthy person a chance to survive, who in other circumstances could well live to old age and die a natural death. If we discard the causes of violent death, then what is the probability of dying in a dream and who is predisposed to this?

There are 24 hours in a day, and almost a third of them we spend sleeping. If you think logically, then the probability of dying in your sleep due to "natural causes" is 1 chance in 3. The indicator is quite high, but medical luminaries are more worried about something else. There are deaths in a dream that defy scientific explanation and to which there is still no answer. It's called Sudden and Unexplained Death Syndrome (SIDS).

It has been observed that a similar phenomenon is most often observed in adults, in particular among Asian men. No one knows what this is connected with and why exactly men of a certain age and origin are subject to such death. In the 80s, this reason was named the main one and even took the lead, taking it away from sudden infant mortality, as a result of which children under one year old died for unknown reasons.

In 1917, for the first time, information about SIDS was published in the medical literature, which occurred in the Philippines and was called bangungut. Subsequently, for unknown reasons, similar deaths began to be recorded in Japan, Singapore, Laos and throughout Asia. An interesting fact is that before death, a person does not experience any symptoms indicating malaise, disease, or any other factors. The person is in good health, and therefore his sudden death is simply a shock to his family and friends. According to eyewitnesses, the man first sleeps peacefully, and then suddenly begins to moan, it is not natural to snore, suffocate and die. Doctors call such signs agonal or dying. Even if the relatives managed to wake the unfortunate man, this did not save him from death. At a subsequent autopsy, the pathologists did not find any pathologies that could lead to death, including no signs of poisoning, allergies, or covert murder.

Such an unusual phenomenon did not pass by scientists and in 1992 they conducted a two-year study in Thailand, studying the causes and likelihood of death in a dream in other populations. They managed to find out the following:

All SIDS deaths were male;

Age from 20 to 49 years;

Nobody was overweight;

During the previous year, no serious illness was recorded - everyone was in good health;

Alcohol, smoking, drugs or other risk factors did not threaten their lives;

Throughout the day preceding death, they had normal performance;

After the onset of agony, the person died within a day;

Although death occurred in a dream, in 63% of cases it occurred in front of relatives or friends; in other cases, men were found in sleeping and resting positions;

In 94% of cases where witnesses were present, death occurred within one hour.

When asked about the likelihood of sudden death among family members of the deceased, it was found to be about 40%. In 19% of those who died, relatives of the man died the same death. It is also interesting that the occurrence of such cases of death is not the same throughout the year. The highest peak occurs from March to May, and very rarely from September to November. It gives the impression of a seasonal phenomenon.

The reasons why men die in Thailand have not yet been found, and therefore SIDS is considered a "potentially serious public health problem." Along with murders, poisonings, accidents and heart attacks, this syndrome claims the lives of about 3,000 men a year, between the ages of 20 and 50.

One of the possible causes of such death is considered to be a combination of physical and mental stresses, which for some reason trigger the SIDS mechanism. But not all scientists share this point of view, because they do not find an evidence base, and therefore the reasons remain unclear.

If you do not take into account SIDS, which, for unknown reasons, takes the lives of a certain group of the population, then what is the probability of dying in a dream in other people.

If death comes at the end of life's journey, then this is natural, but very often it threatens those who are still too early to visit the "bright tunnel". Such a threat is quite real for people who snore in their sleep. They do not take it seriously and believe that they do not snore, because they themselves do not hear it, but only learn from the words of loved ones.

Brief pauses in breathing during sleep are called sleep apnea. Those who experience such phenomena, the risk of sudden death increases by 2-3 times. It is precisely such stops that "lovers of snoring" are often prone to.

During sleep, a sleeping person stops breathing. Such moments can be observed up to 10 times in 1 hour! This leads to a slowing of the heart rate, the level of oxygen in the blood drops, blood pressure rises sharply and strongly, and adrenaline is released. All this can provoke a severe attack of arrhythmia, stroke or heart attack. At such moments, it is common for a person to wake up, but, unfortunately, this does not always happen.

You should not postpone a visit to the doctor if you have the following symptoms: you snore in your sleep; you fall asleep badly and sleep; you sweat a lot; you often get up at night to go to the toilet;

Do not rush to die - you still have a lot to do on earth!

Attention, only TODAY!

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Health indicators

What health indicators do you think are important to consider when it comes to myocardium? It can be answered that in such cases the following figures are important:

blood pressure;

There is another metric that is just as important in assessing the risk of heart disease, the researchers say: the so-called fitness level.

Thanks to a new study made by scientists, it is easy to make a simple prediction regarding the risk of premature death due to the development of cardiovascular diseases. By the way, the number of diseases associated with an unhealthy lifestyle is growing all over the world.

Fitness level

Fitness levels are an easy and inexpensive way to learn more about your health and help doctors identify high-risk people who may experience heart and vascular disease in the future. This is told by a certified physician, professor from the John Ochsner Heart and Vascular Institute, Carl Levy.

All known other indicators that are related to health status cannot always determine the risk of, for example, myocardial infarction. Although you still need to be aware that the lack of physical activity is definitely a provoking factor in this case.

Usually, if patients want to assess their health status, then this requires expensive and time-consuming examinations. True, at the same time, Dr. Levy and his colleagues argue that it is much easier to make a calculation, focusing on such simple indicators as:

age;
waist circumference;
pulse at rest.

Study authors Dr. Javed Newman and Dr. Bjarn Nes, scientists from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, said that such a simple test that shows the level of physical fitness is beneficial. Now there is no need to compose complex algorithms that were previously traditionally used to calculate all the risks of premature death.

The results of the study were published in the medical journal Mayo Clinic Proceedings (Mayo Clinic Reports). 38 thousand 480 men and women took part in the scientific survey. Their health status was monitored for 16 years. At the end of the time, 3,863 people died (of which 1,133 participants in the study died from cardiovascular diseases).

Chances of dying early

The scientists divided the respondents into groups, taking into account the assessment of their health status. Doctors found that those who exercised the least had a 50% increased risk of dying early due to myocardial infarction compared to those who found time for.

In fact, a gradual increase in exercise among men by 18% reduced the likelihood of premature death due to heart disease, and in women by 15%. Study participants who did not exercise at all died of various causes.

Scientists also drew attention to the well-known following factors that could lead to the risk of premature death:

high blood pressure (hypertension);
elevated cholesterol.

It turned out that these factors did not affect the accuracy of statistical predictions compared to data based only on the level of physical fitness.

Doctors published a video in the electronic version of the medical journal. Newman explained that high blood pressure and high cholesterol often indicate that a person is not exercising. Thus, scientists trace a clear link between low levels of physical activity and a high risk of premature death. The finding "shows the powerful impact that sport has on preventing cardiovascular disease," Newman says.

How can you determine your fitness level? It's very simple. Scientists have created a free service at worldfitnesslevel.org, and you can also find the Google Play app and the Apple Store for smartphones. With the help of simple calculations, you can assess the level of your physical fitness and compare the data with those of other people of the same age and gender.

Risk factors for heart attack and premature death

The researchers emphasize that the level of physical fitness along with other risk factors plays an important role in determining the risks of facing. Specifically, the risk factors are:

smoking habit;
alcohol consumption;
the presence of serious diseases.

Pamela Pick, MD, American College of Sports Medicine and author of Fit to Live, agrees that it doesn't make sense to go through a lot of tests and tests to predict and estimate the chances of a heart attack and death at a young age. It is important to know in this case the level of physical fitness.