The final stage of any statistical research. The concept and forms of statistical observation

Statistical Research (SI) allows you to get an idea about a particular phenomenon, to study its size, level, to identify patterns. The subject of SI can be the health of the population, the organization of medical care, environmental factors affecting health, etc.

When conducting SI can be used 2 methodological approaches:

1) the study of the intensity of the phenomenon in the environment, the prevalence of the phenomenon, the identification of trends in the state of health of the population - are carried out on general populations or sample populations large enough in number to obtain intensive indicators and reasonably transfer the data obtained to the entire population

2) carrying out strictly planned studies on the study of individual factors without revealing the intensity of the phenomenon in the environment - they are carried out, as a rule, on small populations in order to identify new factors, study unknown or little-known cause-and-effect relationships

Stages of statistical research:

Stage 1. Drawing up a plan and research program- is preparatory, it determines the purpose and objectives of the study, draws up a plan and program of the study, develops a program for summarizing statistical material and resolves organizational issues.

A) the purpose and objectives of the study should be clearly formulated; the goal determines the main direction of research and is, as a rule, not only theoretical, but also practical, it is formulated clearly, clearly, unambiguously; to disclose the goal, the research tasks are determined.

B) it is necessary to study the literature on this topic.

B) it is necessary to develop organizational plan - provides for the determination of 1) the place (administrative-territorial boundaries of the observation), 2) the time (specific terms for the implementation of the observation, the development and analysis of the material) and 3) the subject of the study (organizers, performers, methodological and organizational leadership, sources of research funding).

D) development Research plan – includes the definition:

- the object of study (statistical population);

- the scope of the study (continuous, non-continuous);

– types (current, one-time);

– ways to collect statistical information.

D) need to make Research (observation) program - includes:

– determination of the unit of observation;

- a list of questions (accounting signs) to be registered in relation to each unit of observation

- development of an individual accounting (registration) form with a list of questions and signs to be recorded;

- development of layout tables, in which the results of the study are then entered.

For each unit of observation, a separate form is filled out, it contains a passport part, clearly formulated questions of the program, put in a certain sequence, and the date of filling out the document. As accounting forms, accounting medical forms used in the practice of medical institutions can be used.

Other medical documents (case histories, and individual cards of an outpatient, the history of the development of the child, the history of childbirth), reporting forms of medical institutions, etc. can serve as sources of information.

To enable the statistical development of data from these documents, the information is copied onto specially designed accounting forms, the content of which is determined in each individual case in accordance with the objectives of the study.

At present, in connection with the machine processing of the results of observation using a computer, program questions can be formalized , When questions in the accounting document are put in the form of alternatives (yes, no) , Or ready-made answers are offered, from which a specific answer should be selected.

E) it is necessary to draw up a program for summarizing the data obtained, which includes establishing the principles of grouping, highlighting grouping characteristics , Determination of combinations of these signs, drawing up layouts of statistical tables.

Stage 2. Collection of material (statistical observation)- - consists in the registration of individual cases of the phenomenon under study and the accounting signs characterizing them in registration forms. Before and during the performance of this work, instruction (oral or written) of the observers is carried out, and they are provided with registration forms.

Statistical observation can be:

BUT ) by time:

1) Current- the phenomenon is studied for some separate period of time (week, quarter , Year, etc.) by daily recording the phenomenon as each case occurs (counting the number of births , The dead, sick , discharged from the hospital). This takes into account rapidly changing phenomena.

2) one-time- statistical data are collected at a certain (critical) point in time (population census, study of the physical development of children, preventive examinations of the population). One-time registration reflects the state of the phenomenon at the time of study, is used to study slowly changing phenomena.

The choice of the type of observation in time is determined by the purpose and objectives of the study (characteristics of hospitalized patients can be obtained as a result of the current registration of those who left the hospital - current observation or by a one-day census of patients in the hospital - one-time observation).

B) depending on the completeness of the coverage of the phenomenon under study:

1) continuous- all the units of observation included in the population, i.e. the general population, are studied. Carried out in order to establish the absolute size of the phenomenon (total population, total number of births or deaths). It is also used in cases where information is necessary for operational work (accounting for infectious diseases, the workload of doctors, etc.)

2) discontinuous- only part of the general population is studied, it is divided into several types:

1. Monographic method- gives a detailed description of individual units of the population that are characteristic in any respect and a deep, comprehensive description of objects.

2. Main Array Method- involves the study of those objects in which the vast majority of units of observation are concentrated. The disadvantage of this method is that a part of the population remains uncovered by the study, although small in size, but which can differ significantly from the main array.

3. Questionnaire method- this is the collection of statistical data using specially designed questionnaires addressed to a certain circle of people. This study is based on the principle of voluntariness, so the return of questionnaires is often incomplete. Often the answers to the questions posed bear the imprint of subjectivity and chance. This method is used to obtain an approximate description of the phenomenon under study.

4. Sampling method- the most common method, is reduced to the study of some specially selected part of the units of observation to characterize the entire general population. This method has the advantage of obtaining results with a high degree of reliability as well as a significantly lower cost. The study employs a smaller number of performers , In addition, it requires less time. In medical statistics, the role and place of the sampling method is especially great, since medical workers usually deal only with a part of the phenomenon being studied (they study a group of patients with a particular disease, analyze the work of individual units).

C) according to the method of obtaining information during the conduct and the nature of its implementation

1. Direct observation(clinical examination of patients , Conducting laboratory , instrumental research , Anthropometric measurements, etc.)

2. sociological methods: interview method (face-to-face survey), questioning (remote survey - anonymous or non-anonymous), etc .;

3. Documentary research(copy of information from accounting and reporting medical documents, information from official statistics of institutions and organizations.)

Stage 3. Material development, statistical grouping and summary– starts with checking and refining the number of observations , Completeness and correctness of the information received , Identification and elimination of errors, duplicate entries, etc.

For the correct development of the material is used Encryption of primary accounting documents, That is, the designation of each feature and its group with a sign - alphabetic or numeric. Encryption is a technique , Facilitating and accelerating material development , Increasing quality, development accuracy. Ciphers - symbols - are developed arbitrarily. When coding diagnoses, it is recommended to use the international nomenclature and classification of diseases; when coding professions - a dictionary of professions.

The advantage of encryption is that, if necessary, after the end of the main development, you can return to the material for development in order to clarify new relationships and dependencies. Encrypted accounting material makes it easier and faster , Than unencrypted. After checking, the features are grouped.

Grouping - division of the set of studied data into homogeneous , Typical groups according to the most significant features. Grouping can be carried out on qualitative and quantitative grounds. The choice of a grouping feature depends on the nature of the studied population and the objectives of the study.

BUT) Typological grouping produced according to qualitative (descriptive, attributive) features (sex , Occupation, disease groups)

B) Variational grouping(by quantitative traits) is carried out on the basis of the numerical dimensions of the trait (age , Duration of the disease, duration of treatment, etc.). Quantitative grouping requires a solution to the issue of the size of the grouping interval: the interval can be equal, and in some cases unequal, even include the so-called open groups (when grouping by age, open groups can be defined: up to 1 year, 50 years and older).

When determining the number of groups proceed from the purpose and objectives of the study. It is necessary that groupings could reveal the patterns of the phenomenon under study. A large number of groups can lead to excessive crushing of the material, unnecessary detailing. A small number of groups leads to obscuring of characteristic features.

Having finished grouping the material, proceed to summary– generalization of isolated cases , Received as a result of a statistical study, into certain groups, their calculation and inclusion in the table layouts.

A summary of the statistical material is carried out using statistical tables. Table , not filled with numbers , called layout.

Statistical tables are list , Chronological, territorial.

The table has a subject and a predicate. The statistical subject is usually placed on horizontal lines on the left side of the table and reflects the main, main feature. The statistical predicate is placed from left to right along the vertical columns and reflects additional accounting features.

Statistical tables are divided into:

BUT) Simple- the numerical distribution of the material according to one attribute is presented , constituent parts of it. A simple table usually contains a simple list or summary of the totality of the phenomenon under study.

B) Group- a combination of two features in connection with each other

AT) Combination- the distribution of the material according to three or more interrelated features is given

When compiling tables, certain requirements must be met.:

- each table should have a heading that reflects its content;

- inside the table, all columns should also have clear short names;

– when filling in the table, all cells of the table must contain the corresponding numerical data. The cells of the table that remain blank due to the absence of this combination are crossed out ("-"), and in the absence of information in the cell, "n. with." or "…";

- after filling in the table in the bottom horizontal row and in the last vertical column on the right, the results of vertical columns and horizontal lines are summed up.

– Tables must have a single sequential numbering.

In studies with a small number of observations, summarization is done manually. All accounting documents are decomposed into groups in accordance with the sign code. Next, the data is calculated and recorded in the corresponding cell of the table. Currently, computers are widely used in sorting and summarizing material. . Which allow not only to sort the material according to the studied characteristics , But do the calculations.

Stage 4. Statistical analysis of the phenomenon under study, formulation of conclusions- a critical stage of the study, at which the calculation of statistical indicators (frequencies , structures , The average size of the phenomenon under study), their graphic representation is given , Dynamics being studied , Trends, connections between phenomena are established . Forecasts are given, etc. The analysis involves the interpretation of the data obtained, the assessment of the reliability of the research results. In conclusion, conclusions are drawn.

Stage 5 Literary processing and presentation of the results- is final, involves the final registration of the results of a statistical study. The results can be presented in the form of an article, report, report , Dissertations, etc. There are certain requirements for each type of design , Which must be observed in the literary processing of the results of a statistical study.

The results of medical and statistical research are being introduced into healthcare practice. Various options for using the results of the study are possible: familiarization with the results of a wide audience of medical and scientific workers; preparation of instructive and methodological documents; preparation of a rationalization proposal and others

Upon completion of the statistical study, recommendations and management decisions are developed, the results of the study are put into practice, and efficiency is evaluated.

In conducting a statistical study, the most important element is the observance of a strict sequence in the implementation of these stages.

The processing of the collected primary data, including their grouping, generalization and presentation in tables, constitutes the second stage of the statistical study, which is called summary.

There are 3 main forms of presentation of processed statistical data: textual, tabular and graphical.

At the third stage of the statistical study, based on the final summary data, scientific analysis of the studied phenomena: various generalizing indicators are calculated in the form of average and relative values, certain patterns are identified in the distributions, dynamics of indicators, etc. Based on the identified patterns, forecasts for the future are made.

Statistical observation is the first stage of statistical research. Almost always, in accordance, of course, with the goals and objectives of the study, work begins with taking into account the facts and collecting primary material. Primary material is the foundation of statistical research. The success of the entire study as a whole depends on the quality of statistical observation. It should be organized in such a way that objective, accurate data about the phenomenon under study are obtained as a result. Incomplete, inaccurate data that do not characterize the process well enough, all the more distorting it, lead to errors. And the analysis carried out on such a basis will be erroneous. It follows that the accounting of facts and the collection of primary material must be carefully thought out and organized.

It should be noted once again that statistical observations are always massive. The law of large numbers comes into force - the larger the population, the more objective the results will be.

Statistical observation can be divided into three stages: 1. Preparation of observation. This is the formulation of the monitoring program, the definition of indicators grouped into layouts of the final statistical tables.

The questions that make up the content of the program should follow from the purpose of the study or the hypothesis to be confirmed by the study. An important element is the layouts of the final statistical tables. It is they who are the project for the development of the results of observation, and only if they are available, it is possible to identify all the issues that need to be included in the program and avoid including unnecessary information.

2. Direct collection of material. This is the most time-consuming part of the research. Statistical reporting, as a special form of organizing data collection, is inherent only in state statistics. All other information is collected through a variety of static tools. It is necessary to point out two main requirements for the collected data: reliability and comparability. And what is highly desirable (in market conditions, it increases many times over) is timeliness.

3. Control of the material before its analysis. No matter how carefully the observation tools are compiled, the performers are instructed, the observation materials always need to be controlled. This is due to the massive nature of statistical work and the complexity of their content.

The object of any statistical study is a set of units of the phenomenon under study. The object can be the population at the census, enterprises, cities, company personnel, etc. In a word, the object of observation is the statistical population under study. It is very important to define the boundaries of the population under study, which clearly define the population under study. For example, if the goal is to study the activities of small enterprises in the region, then it should be determined what form of ownership it belongs to (state, private, joint, etc.), according to what criterion enterprises will be selected: industry specifics, sales volume, time from the moment registration, status (active, inactive, temporarily idle), etc. The set must be homogeneous, otherwise additional difficulties will arise in the analysis process and errors are almost always inevitable.

Along with the definition of the object of observation and boundaries, it is important to determine the unit of the population and the unit of observation. A population unit is an individual constituent element of a statistical population. The unit of observation is the phenomenon, the object, the signs of which are subject to registration. The set of units of observation constitutes the object of observation. For example, the goal is to investigate the influence of various factors on the productivity of workers in the mines of Ispat-Karmet OJSC. In this case - the population is determined by the goal itself - the miners working at the Ispat-Karmet mines, the unit of the population is the miner, as a carrier of information, and the unit of observation is the mine. Briefly: the unit of the population is what is being examined, the unit of observation is the source of information.
To carry out statistical observation, it is necessary to collect data on a given basis, namely: to designate a statistical population that consists of materially existing objects, a unit and the purpose of a one-time survey of an object, and draw up a program of statistical observation.

At the first stage, a sample collected data according to the indicated characteristics, the data are sorted in ascending order. Then, a frequency distribution table should be compiled with sequential filling in the corresponding columns in the table.

At the second stage, in order to process the collected primary data, it is necessary to group and generalize the selected elements according to a given attribute, to designate the numerical characteristics of the sample. This stage of statistical research is called summary. Summary - scientific processing of primary data in order to obtain generalized characteristics of the phenomenon under study according to a number of features essential for it, i.e. primary materials are brought together, form statistical aggregates, which are characterized by final absolute generalizing indicators. At the summary stage, we move from the characterization of individual varying features of the units of the population - to the characterization of the entire population as a whole or to the characterization of their general manifestation in the mass.

Should be found scope according to the formula:

R=x(max) - x(min);

fashion M(0), which shows the value that occurs most often, median M(e), which characterizes the average value (it does not exceed half of the members of the series) corresponds to the variant in the middle of the ranged variation series. The position of the median is determined by its number: Nme \u003d (n + 1) / 2, where n is the number of units in the population and arithmetic mean for the indicated group, which is calculated by the formula:

The results of the work can be presented graphically in the form of a histogram and a frequency distribution polygon.

The data obtained reflect the general that is inherent in all units of the studied population. As a result of statistical observation, objective, comparable, complete information should be obtained, which allows, at subsequent stages of the study, to provide evidence-based conclusions about the nature and patterns of development of the phenomenon under study.

Practical task

Conduct a statistical study to find out the information about growth 2 5 randomly selected students of the Tomsk Polytechnic University.

Make a frequency distribution table, find the range, mode, median and arithmetic mean of height (in cm) for the indicated young men.

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Posted on http://www.allbest.ru/

Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

"Legal Institute"

Faculty "Jurisprudence"

abstract

by discipline

"Legal statistics"

Methods and main stages of statistical research.

The work was done by a student

Gribanov A.S.

Moscow

Introduction

1. The concept of statistical research

2. Methods of statistical research

3. Organization and stages of statistical research

Conclusion

List of used literature

Introduction

Statistics knows everything,” Ilf and Petrov stated in their famous novel “The Twelve Chairs” and continued: “It is known how much food the average citizen of the republic eats per year ... It is known how many hunters, ballerinas ... machine tools, bicycles, monuments, lighthouses and sewing machines ... How much life, full of ardor, passions and thoughts, looks at us from statistical tables! .. "Why are these tables needed, how to compile and process them, what conclusions can be drawn based on them - statistics answers these questions (from Italian stato - state, Latin status - state). Statistics is a science that studies, processes and analyzes quantitative data on a wide variety of mass phenomena in life.

Statistical research has firmly entered our daily life. Government and commercial entities regularly collect extensive information about society and the environment. These data are published in the form of tables and charts. Each person should be well versed in the flow of information. This means that he must extract, analyze and process information, make decisions in various situations.

In my work, I will consider statistical studies, what they are, what are the methods of statistical research, how these studies are organized and what stages they consist of.

1. The concept of statistical research

Observation as the initial stage of the study is associated with the collection of initial data on the issue under study. It is characteristic of many sciences. However, each science has its own specifics, differing in its observations. Therefore, not every observation is statistical.

Statistical research is a scientifically organized collection, summary and analysis of data (facts) on socio-economic, demographic and other phenomena and processes of social life in the state, with registration of their most significant features in accounting documentation, organized according to a single program.

Distinctive features (specifics) of statistical research are: purposefulness, organization, mass character, consistency (complexity), comparability, documentation, controllability, practicality.

In general, a statistical study should:

* have a socially useful goal and universal (state) significance;

* relate to the subject of statistics in the specific conditions of its place and time;

* Express the statistical type of accounting (and not accounting and not operational);

* carried out according to a pre-developed program with its scientifically based methodological and other support;

* to carry out the collection of mass data (facts), which reflect the entire set of cause-and-effect and other factors that characterize the phenomenon in many ways;

* be registered in the form of accounting documents of the established form;

* guarantee the absence of observation errors or reduce them to the minimum possible;

* provide for certain quality criteria and ways to control the collected data, ensuring their reliability, completeness and content;

* focus on cost-effective technology for collecting and processing data;

* be a reliable information base for all subsequent stages of statistical research and all users of statistical information.

Studies that do not meet these requirements are not statistical.

are not statistical studies, for example,

observations and research: mothers playing with a child (personal question);

spectators at a theatrical production (there is no accounting documentation for the spectacle);

a researcher for physical and chemical experiments with their measurements, calculations and documentary registration (not mass-public data);

a doctor for patients with the maintenance of medical cards (operational records);

accountant for the movement of funds in the bank account of the enterprise (accounting);

journalists for the public and private life of government officials or other celebrities (not the subject of statistics).

Statistical population - a set of units that have mass character, typicality, qualitative uniformity and the presence of variation.

The statistical population consists of materially existing objects (Employees, enterprises, countries, regions), is the object of statistical research.

Statistical observation is the first stage of statistical research, which is a scientifically organized collection of data on the studied phenomena and processes of social life.

2. Methods of statistical research

It should be emphasized that statistical materials will be called materials that are specially created according to predetermined principles and methods, are subject to further processing by mathematical methods, i.e. will study the quantitative characteristics of the object under study. They are created in two steps:

1) primary documents (primary sources) - questionnaires, listing sheets, questionnaires, etc.;

2) summary statements, summary tables, which are processed by methods of mathematical statistics; these summary documents are commonly referred to as "statistics".

Any statistical study assumes the following:

1) serious preliminary work;

2) direct data collection;

3) work on the analysis of the obtained data.

The study is conducted according to a certain algorithm, while the passage of each stage requires the use of special methods and is closed to the content of the work performed.

The algorithm for conducting a statistical study can be represented as follows.

1. Development of a research program or observation program. At this stage, the goals and objectives of the survey, the coverage of the objects under study, the degree of coverage of objects, the chronological and geographical scope, the units of observation, the indicators to be recorded, the form of the primary source for filling in the data are determined, and the mechanisms for collecting information, monitoring the quality of information collection, processing and analysis of the obtained data.

The monitoring program is a list of features to be registered. observation registration accounting documentation

The observation period is the time during which information is recorded.

The critical observation date is the date as of which information is reported.

2. Statistical observation can be short-term or long-term (carried out over a certain period), continuous or selective. As a result, as a rule, a complex of mass documents appears.

3. Summary and grouping of statistical data - calculation and grouping of the collected data, as a result of which the latter are turned into a system of statistical tables and subtotals.

4. Data analysis, which provides for the preliminary setting of tasks, carried out by methods of statistical analysis.

5. Interpretation of data - explanation of the results obtained, their comparison with similar indicators.

The types of statistical documents and methods for their subsequent processing are determined in accordance with the methods of data collection, all this is reflected and determined by a previously developed program and depends on the objectives of the study.

At the data collection stage, statistical observation has two main forms:

1) reporting based on current observation, current (permanent) registration of facts and events;

2) specially organized statistical observation.

Statistical observation can be carried out by the following methods.

1. By the time of the event:

1) current (continuous) observation, carried out systematically;

2) periodic observation, repeated after a certain period of time (livestock census);

3) one-time observation, carried out as needed, without taking into account the time interval (document flow accounting).

2. By coverage of units of observation:

1) continuous observation, as a result of which all units of the studied population are surveyed (general population census);

2) non-continuous observation, when a part of the units of the object under study, selected in a certain way, is examined; types of non-continuous observation are:

a) the method of the main array, when a part of the units of the population is examined, which has the most pronounced characteristics under study;

b) questionnaire observation, when a set of features is studied with the help of survey sheets, which is then extrapolated to the entire population;

c) monographic observation, i.e. identification of various trends in the development of phenomena and characteristics in one set;

d) selective observation - part of the studied units processed randomly (family budget);

e) direct observation, in which a fact to be recorded is established, and on this basis, entries are made in the registration log (form).

In statistics, there is the following classification of ways to collect information:

Correspondent, carried out by a staff of voluntary correspondents;

Forwarding, implemented orally by specially trained workers;

Questionnaire (in the form of questionnaires);

Self-registration (filling in the forms by the respondents themselves);

Private (marriages, children, divorces).

The processing of information obtained from primary sources usually consists in the systematization of information. Over time, information processing methods have changed significantly.

Appearing initially as a system of numerical description, involving the accounting of the population and land, in the XVIII century. Having been enshrined in legislative acts, domestic statistics underwent a significant evolution in the 19th and 20th centuries, formed as a complex, branched system based on scientific mathematical methods and computer technology.

By the beginning of the XX century. in the field of statistics, there was a serious experience of work, the basic principles for collecting and analyzing information were formed. The main directions of statistics, its methods (reports, surveys, censuses; the structure of statistical material and the system of statistical research), laid down and tested in the 19th century, developed throughout the 20th century.

Statistical (quantitative) descriptions within the framework of regional studies, using the simplest arithmetic calculations, were gradually replaced by complex mathematical and computer methods that make it possible to obtain detailed statistics, as well as predict and model the development of statistical indicators based on it.

The first objects of research were the population and land, the tasks of taxation were solved, for which the total number of inhabitants was calculated, patterns in the development of the population were revealed, and land censuses were carried out. The main demographic characteristic was the total population. Data were given on births, deaths, the number of marriages, tables of mortality, survival to a certain age were compiled, by calculating the difference between the number of births and deaths per year, the average population growth was determined.

Today, statistics uses mass statistical observations, the method of groupings, averages, indices, the balance method, the method of graphic images and other methods of analyzing statistical data.

Gradually, the types of documents also changed. Military statistical descriptions and descriptions of the province "in historical, statistical and ethnographic terms", scribe books and revisions were replaced by complex selective and general censuses ("The first general census of the population of the Russian Empire in 1897", agricultural and industrial census), a system of multifactor reports and the development of an intersectoral balance of the national economy by years.

3. Organization and stages of statistical research

To get an idea about a particular phenomenon, to draw conclusions, it is necessary to conduct a statistical study. The subject of statistical research in health care and medicine can be the health of the population, the organization of medical care, various sections of the activities of medical institutions, environmental factors that affect the state of health.

The methodical sequence of performing a statistical study consists of certain stages.

Stage 1. Drawing up a plan and program of research.

Stage 2. Collection of material (statistical observation).

Stage 3. Material development, statistical grouping and summary

Stage 4. Statistical analysis of the phenomenon under study, formulation of conclusions.

Stage 5 Literary processing and presentation of the results.

Upon completion of the statistical study, recommendations and management decisions are developed, the results of the study are put into practice, and efficiency is evaluated.

In conducting a statistical study, the most important element is the observance of a strict sequence in the implementation of these stages.

The first stage of a statistical study - drawing up a plan and program - is preparatory, at which the purpose and objectives of the study are determined, a plan and program of the study are drawn up, a program for summarizing statistical material is developed, and organizational issues are resolved.

The goal determines the main direction of research and is, as a rule, not only theoretical, but also practical. The goal is formulated clearly, clearly, unambiguously.

To disclose the goal, the research tasks are defined.

An important aspect of the preparatory phase is the development of an organizational plan. The organizational plan of the study provides for the definition of the place (administrative-territorial boundaries of the observation), time (specific terms for the implementation of the observation, development and analysis of the material) and the subject of the study (organizers, performers, methodological and organizational leadership, research funding sources).

The study plan includes:

Definition of the object of study (statistical population);

The scope of the study (continuous, non-continuous);

Types (current, one-time);

Ways to collect statistical information. The research program includes:

Definition of the unit of observation;

List of questions (accounting signs) to be registered in relation to each unit of observation*

Development of an individual accounting (registration) form with a list of questions and features to be recorded;

Development of table layouts, in which the results of the study are then entered.

At present, in connection with the machine processing of the results of observation using a computer, program questions can be formalized when the questions in the accounting document are posed in the form of an alternative (yes, no), or ready-made answers are offered, from which a specific answer should be selected.

At the first stage of statistical research, along with the observation program, a program is compiled for summarizing the data obtained, which includes establishing the principles of grouping, identifying grouping features, determining combinations of these features, and compiling layouts of statistical tables.

The second stage - the collection of statistical material (statistical observation) - consists in the registration of individual cases of the phenomenon under study and the accounting signs characterizing them in registration forms. Before and during the performance of this work, instruction (oral or written) of the observers is carried out, and they are provided with registration forms.

In terms of time, statistical observation can be current and one-time.

With current observation, the phenomenon is studied for some separate period of time (week, quarter, year, etc.) by daily recording of the phenomenon as each case occurs.

With a one-time observation, statistical data are collected at a certain (critical) point in time. One-time registration reflects the state of the phenomenon at the time of study. This type of observation is used to study slowly changing phenomena.

The choice of the type of observation in time is determined by the purpose and objectives of the study.

Depending on the completeness of the coverage of the phenomenon under study, continuous and non-continuous research is distinguished.

In a continuous study, all units of observation included in the population are studied, i.e. the general population. A continuous study is carried out in order to establish the absolute dimensions of the phenomenon. The continuous method is also used in cases where information is necessary for operational work.

In a non-continuous study, only a part of the general population is studied. It is divided into several types: questionnaire, monographic, main array, selective.

Monographic method - gives a detailed description of individual units of the population that are characteristic in any respect and a deep, comprehensive description of objects.

The method of the main array - involves the study of those objects in which the vast majority of units of observation are concentrated. The disadvantage of this method is that a part of the population remains uncovered by the study, although small in size, but which can differ significantly from the main array.

The questionnaire method is the collection of statistical data using specially designed questionnaires addressed to a certain circle of people. This study is based on the principle of voluntariness, so the return of questionnaires is often incomplete. Often the answers to the questions posed bear the imprint of subjectivity and chance. This method is used to obtain an approximate description of the phenomenon under study.

Sampling method - is reduced to the study of some specially selected part of the units of observation to characterize the entire general population. This method has the advantage of obtaining results with a high degree of reliability as well as a significantly lower cost. The study employs a smaller number of performers, in addition, it requires less time.

According to the method of obtaining information in the course of statistical observation and the nature of its implementation, several types are distinguished:

1) direct observation

2) sociological methods: interview method (face-to-face survey), questioning (remote survey - anonymous or not anonymous), etc.;

3) documentary research.

The third stage - grouping and summarizing the material - begins with checking and clarifying the number of observations, the completeness and correctness of the information received, identifying and eliminating errors, duplicate records, etc.

For the correct development of the material, encryption of primary accounting documents is used, i.e. designation of each feature and its group with a sign - alphabetic or numeric. Encryption is a technique that facilitates and speeds up the development of material, improves the quality and accuracy of development. Ciphers - symbols - are developed arbitrarily. When coding diagnoses, it is recommended to use the international nomenclature and classification of diseases; when coding professions - a dictionary of professions.

The advantage of encryption is that, if necessary, after the end of the main development, you can return to the material for development in order to clarify new relationships and dependencies. Encrypted accounting material allows you to do this easier and faster than unencrypted. After checking, the features are grouped.

Grouping - the division of the totality of the studied data into homogeneous, typical groups according to the most significant features. Grouping can be carried out on qualitative and quantitative grounds. The choice of a grouping feature depends on the nature of the studied population and the objectives of the study.

Typological grouping is carried out according to qualitative (descriptive, attributive) features.

Grouping by quantitative (variation) features is carried out on the basis of the numerical size of the feature. Quantitative grouping requires a solution to the question of the size of the grouping interval: the interval can be equal, and in some cases - unequal, even include the so-called open groups.

Having finished grouping the material, proceed to the summary.

Summary - a generalization of isolated cases obtained as a result of a statistical study into certain groups, their counting and entering into table layouts.

A summary of the statistical material is carried out using statistical tables. A table not filled with numbers is called a layout.

Statistical tables are list, chronological, territorial.

Statistical tables are divided into simple, group and combination.

In simple tables, the numerical distribution of the material according to one attribute, its constituent parts, is presented. A simple table usually contains a simple list or summary of the totality of the phenomenon under study.

When compiling tables, certain requirements must be met:

Each table should have a heading that reflects its content;

Within the table, all columns should also have clear, concise titles;

When filling out the table, all cells of the table must contain the corresponding numerical data. The cells of the table remaining blank due to the absence of this combination are crossed out ("-"), and in the absence of information in the cell, "n.s." or "...";

After filling the table in the bottom horizontal row and in the last vertical column on the right, the results of vertical columns and horizontal lines are summed up.

Tables must have a single sequential numbering.

The fourth stage - statistical analysis - is a crucial stage of the study. At this stage, the calculation of statistical indicators (frequency, structure, average size of the phenomenon under study) is carried out, their graphic representation is given, the dynamics, trends are studied, connections between phenomena are established. forecasts are given, etc. The analysis involves the interpretation of the data obtained, the assessment of the reliability of the results of the study. In conclusion, conclusions are drawn.

The fifth stage - literary processing is final. It involves the finalization of the results of a statistical study. The results can be presented in the form of an article, report, report, dissertation, etc. For each type of design, there are certain requirements that must be observed in the literary processing of the results of a statistical study.

Conclusion

To study various social and socio-economic phenomena, as well as some processes occurring in nature, special statistical studies are carried out. Any statistical research begins with a purposeful collection of information about the phenomenon or process under study.

The purpose of statistical research, as well as any scientific research, is to reveal the essence of mass phenomena and processes, as well as their inherent patterns. A distinctive feature of these patterns is that they do not apply to each individual unit of the population, but to the entire mass of units as a whole. The general principle underlying the study of statistical regularities is the so-called law of large numbers.

To generalize and systematize the data obtained as a result of statistical observation, they are divided into groups according to some criterion and the results of the grouping are summarized in tables.

When conducting a statistical study, after collecting and grouping data, they proceed to their analysis, using various generalizing indicators for this.

List of used literature

1. Eliseeva I.I. Social Statistics Textbook 3rd ed., Revised. and additional -M.: Finance and statistics, 2003.

2. Methods of statistical research / Electronic source (http://studme.org/43731/istoriya/metody_statisticheskih_issledovaniy).

3. Legal statistics: textbook / Ed. B.C. Lyalina, A.V. Simonenko. -2nd ed., revised. and additional M.: UNITY-DANA, 2010.

4. Savyuk L.K. Legal statistics / Textbook, M .: Jurist, 2004.

5. Statistics: textbook for bachelors / ed. I. I. Eliseeva. -- 3rd ed., revised. and additional -- M. : Yurait Publishing House, 2014.

6. Encyclopedia of statistical terms. v.1. Methodological foundations of statistics. FSGS, 2012.

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Stages of statistical research. Collected during the first stage of statistical research - statistical observation - data on the value of any feature of the studied population

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Collected during the first stage of the statistical study - statistical observation - data on the value of any feature of the studied population should be processed in such a way that an accurate and detailed answer to all the questions posed by the purpose of the study is obtained. The task of the second stage of statistical research is statistical processing (summaries) - consists in ordering and generalizing the primary material, bringing it into groups and, on this basis, giving a generalized description of the totality. The quality of the initial statistical material predetermines the quality of the generalizing indicators obtained as a result of the statistical summary.

Distinguish summary simple and complex (statistical grouping).

Simple Summary is an operation to calculate the totals for a set of units of observation. Complex summary - this is a set of operations that includes grouping observation units, counting the totals for each group and for the entire population, and presenting the results of the summary and grouping in the form of statistical tables.

Statistical grouping is reduced to the division of the population into groups according to to the selected feature essential for the units of the population (grouping feature ). The choice of a grouping feature, i.e. sign , according to which the units of the studied population are united into groups, - one of the most significant and complex issues in the theory of grouping and statistical research . The results of the entire statistical study often depend on the correct choice of a grouping attribute.

Statistical observation. Stages of statistical research

Grouping makes it possible to obtain such results by which it is possible to identify the composition of the population, the characteristic features and properties of typical phenomena, to discover patterns and relationships.

The simplest and most commonly used way of summarizing statistical data is distribution ranks . The statistical series (law) of distribution is the numerical distribution of units of the population according to the trait under study. Let some SW be discrete, i.e. can only take fixed (on some scale) values X i . In this case, a series of probabilities P(X i) for all ( i=1, 2, …, n) admissible values of this quantity is called its distribution law.

Depending on the grouping feature used, statistical series can be attributive and variational (quantitative).

Attribute rows distributions reflect the qualitative state of the units of the population (gender of a person, marital status, industry affiliation of an enterprise, its form of ownership, etc.), and variational - have a numerical expression (production volume, family income, age of a person, academic score, etc.).

An example of an attribute series is the distribution of students in a group by gender.

Variational (quantitative) grouped series can be discrete or interval . A discrete variational distribution series is a series in which the numerical distribution of population units according to a discrete attribute is expressed as an integer finite value. An example is the distribution of workers by category, the distribution of city families by the number of children, and so on. An interval distribution series is a series in which the characteristic values are given as an interval. The construction of interval variation series is expedient, first of all, for random variables characterized by a continuous variation of a feature (i.e., when the value of a feature in population units can take on any values, even if within certain limits).

So, the probability distribution law of a discrete SW carries all the information about it. This law (or simply the distribution of a random variable) can be specified in three ways:

— in the form of a table of quantity values and their corresponding probabilities;

- in the form of a diagram or, as it is sometimes called, a distribution histogram;

- in the form of a formula, for example, for normal, binomial, etc. distribution.

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Stages of statistical research

Stages of statistical research.

Statistical study- this is a collection, summary and analysis of data (facts) on socio-economic, demographic and other phenomena and processes of public life in the state, scientifically organized according to a single program, with registration of their most significant features in accounting documentation.

Distinctive features (specifics) of statistical research are: purposefulness, organization, mass character, consistency (complexity), comparability, documentation, controllability, practicality.

Statistical research consists of three main stages:

1) collection of primary statistical information(statistical observation) - observation, collection of data on the values of the studied attribute of units of statistical cos-ty, kt is the foundation of future statistical analysis. If a mistake was made during the collection of primary statistical data or the material turned out to be of poor quality, this will affect the correctness and reliability of both theoretical and practical conclusions.

2) statistical summary and processing of primary information- Data is organized and grouped. The results of statistical grouping and summaries are presented in the form of statistical tables, which is the most rational, systematized, compact and visual form of presentation of mass data.

3) generalization and interpretation of statistical information- analysis of statistical information.

All these stages are interconnected, the absence of one of them leads to a break in the integrity of the statistical study.

Stages of stat research

1. Goal setting

2. Definition of the object of observation

3. Definition of units of observation

4. Drawing up a research program

5. Drawing up instructions for filling out the form

6. Summary and grouping of data (brief analysis)

Basic concepts and categories of statistical science.

1. Statistical population- a set of phenomena that have one or more common features and differ from each other in the values of other features. Such, for example, are the totality of households, the totality of families, the totality of enterprises, firms, associations, etc.

2. Sign - this property, a characteristic feature of the phenomenon, subject to statistical study

3. Statistical indicator- this is a generalizing quantitative characteristic of the social economy of phenomena and processes in their qualitative certainty in the conditions of a particular place and time. Statistical indicators can be divided into two main types: accounting and estimated indicators (sizes, volumes, levels of the phenomenon under study) and analytical indicators (relative and average values, variation indicators, etc.).

4. Unit of owls- this is each individual, subject to statistical study.

5. Variation- this is the variability of the magnitude of the attribute in individual units of co-phenomena.

6. Regularity- called the repetition and order of change in phenomena.

The main stages of statistical observation.

St-some observation is a scientifically based collection of data on the social economy phenomenon of social life.

CH stages:

1. Preparation for statistical observation - involves the use of the method of mass observations, which is nothing more than the collection of primary statistical information. (solution of scientific, methodological and organizational and technical issues).

2. Summary and grouping of primary stats- the collected information is summarized and distributed in a certain way using the method of stat groupings. including work, begins with the distribution of census forms, questionnaires, forms, statistical reporting forms and ends with their submission after filling in to the bodies conducting the observation.

3. Analysis of statistical information- using the method of generalizing indicators, the analysis of statistical information is carried out.

4. Development of proposals for improving the CH- analyzes the reasons that led to the incorrect filling of statistical forms and develops proposals for improving the observation.

Obtaining information during CT SN requires a considerable amount of financial labor and time. (opinion polls)

Grouping statistics.

grouping- this is the division of owls into groups according to essential features.

Reasons for grouping: the originality of the object of the statistical study.

The grouping method solves the following problem: allocation of socio-economy types and phenomena; study of the structure of the phenomenon and structural changes occurring in it; revealing the relationship and dependence between phenomena.

These tasks are solved with the help of typological, structural and analytical groupings.

Typological group– identification of types of social-economic phenomena (group of industrial enterprises by form of ownership)

Structural group– study of structure and structural shifts. With the help of such groups, the following can be studied: the composition of us-I by gender, age, place of residence, etc.

Analytical group- identifying the relationship between features.

Stages of building SG:

1.selection of a grouping feature

2.determination of the required number of groups, into kt it is necessary to divide the studied owl

3. set the boundaries of the gr-ki intervals

4. setting for each group of indicators or their system, which should characterize the selected groups.

grouping systems.

Grouping system- this is a series of interrelated statistical groupings according to the most significant features, comprehensively reflecting the most important aspects of the phenomena under study.

Typological group- this is the division of the studied qualitatively heterogeneous society into classes, social-economy types (group of industrial enterprises by form of ownership)

Structural group- characterizes the composition of a homogeneous cos-ty according to certain characteristics. With the help of such groups, the following can be studied: the composition of us-I by gender, age, place of residence, etc.

Analytical group- used in the study of the relationship between features, one of the kt is factorial (influences the change in performance), the other is productive (features that change under the influence of factors).

Construction and types of distribution series.

Stat number of distribution- this is an ordered distribution of units of owls into groups according to a certain varying trait.

Distinguish: attributive and variational happy distributions.

Attributive- these are r.r., built on qualitative grounds. R.r. taken in the form of tables. They characterize the composition of the owls according to the existing features, taken over several periods, these data allow us to study the change in the structure.

variational are r.r. built on a quantitative basis. Any variation series consists of 2 elements: variants and frequencies.

Options individual values of the attribute are considered, which it takes in the variation series, i.e.

specific value of the variable attribute.

Frequencies- this is the number of individual options or each group of the variation series, i.e. these are numbers showing how often certain variants occur in the r.r.

Variation series:

1.discrete- characterizes the distribution of units of owls on a discrete basis (the distribution of families according to the number of rooms in individual apartments).

2.interval– the feature is presented as an interval; it is expedient first of all at a continuous variation of a sign.

The most convenient r.r. analyze with the help of their graphical representation, which makes it possible to judge the form of distribution. A visual representation of the nature of the change in the frequencies of the variational series is given by a polygon and a histogram, there is an ogive and a cumulate.

Statistical tables.

ST is a rational and common form of presenting statistical data.

The table is the most rational, visual and compact form of presentation of statistical material.

The main techniques that determine the technique for the formation of ST trace:

1. T should be compact and contain only those initial data that directly reflect the studied socio-economy phenomenon in the article.

2. The heading of the table and the names of the columns and lines should be clear and concise.

3.inf-tion is located in the columns (columns) of the table, ends with a summary line.

5. it is useful to number columns and lines, etc.

According to the logical content, STs are a “stat sentence”, the main elements being the subject and the predicate.

Subject the name of the object, characterized by numbers. this is m.b. one or more owls, otd units of owls.

Predicate ST are indicators that characterize the object of study, i.e. subject of the table. The predicate is the top headings and the state of the content column from left to right.

9. The concept of absolute value in statistics .

Stat pok-whether is a qualitatively defined variable that quantitatively characterizes the object of study or its properties.

A.v.- this is a generalizing indicator that characterizes the size, scale or volume of a particular phenomenon in specific conditions of place and time.

Ways of expression: natural units (t., pcs., quantity); labor dimension (slave. Wr, labour); value expression

How to get: registration of facts, summary and grouping, calculation according to defined methodology (GDP, ratings, etc.)

Types of AB: 1.individual AB - characterize individual elements of general phenomena 2. Total AB - har-t indicators for co-objects.

Absolute change (/_\) is the difference between 2 AB.

Stages and methods of statistical research

Statistical research consists of three main stages:

Statistical observation is the first stage. In the course of it, primary statistical information and data are collected, which will become the basis for future statistical analysis. Statistical observation methods are represented by censuses, statistical reporting, questioning, and selective observation.

Statistical summary is the second stage. In the course of it, the processing of primary information takes place; specific single information is summarized, forming a set in order to identify typical features and patterns inherent in the phenomenon under study as a whole. The main method of statistical summary is grouping, when the studied phenomena are divided into the most important types, characteristic groups and subgroups according to essential features. The results of the statistical grouping and summaries are presented in the form of tables and graphs.

Generalization and analysis of statistical information is the third stage. Statistical analysis is the final stage of statistical research.

The main stages of the analysis are the following:

1. establishing the facts and their assessment;

2. establishing the characteristic features and causes of the phenomenon;

3. comparison of the phenomenon with the basic phenomena - normative, planned and others;

4. formulation of hypotheses, conclusions and assumptions;

5. statistical verification of the hypotheses put forward with the help of special generalizing statistical indicators.

General indicators- absolute, relative, average values and index systems - are used at this stage. The general features of the formation of generalizing indicators are established by measuring their deviations and bringing them to an average indicator. The study of deviations - "variations" - together with the use of average and relative values is of great practical and scientific importance. Indicators of deviations of "variations" characterize the degree of homogeneity of the statistical population according to the desired attribute. Indicators of "variations" determine the degree and boundaries of variation. Of considerable interest is the relationship of signs of "variations".

All these three stages are inextricably linked by an organic unity. Thus, statistical observation is meaningless without further analysis, and analysis is impossible without information obtained at the stage of primary data processing.

The processing of empirical research data is usually divided into several stages:

1) Primary data processing:

- Compilation of tables;

— Transformation of the form of information;

- Data validation.

2) Statistical data analysis:

— Analysis of primary statistics;

— Evaluation of the reliability of differences;

— Data normalization;

— Correlation analysis;

- Factor analysis.

In most cases, it is advisable to start data processing with the compilation of pivot tables.

Pivot data table- this is a kind of "accumulator" of all the data obtained as a result of the study, ideally it should contain the data of all subjects according to all research methods. Pivot tables are usually compiled in Microsoft Office Excel, or Word, Access.

The basis for the pivot table of the source data is the following form. Each line contains the values of all indicators of one subject. Each column (field) contains the values of one indicator for all subjects. Thus, in each cell (cell) of the table, only one value of one indicator of one subject is recorded. The topmost line contains the subject's number in order, full name (or some other identifier), measured indicators, scale ratings, etc. This line makes it easier to navigate the table. In each subsequent line, the name of the subject and the values of all parameters measured from him are recorded; of course, for all subjects in the same order of indicators.

The subjects can be listed in alphabetical order, but it is better to use this principle at the lowest level of division. First, it is better to divide the subjects according to their belonging to any subgroups that will be compared with each other. Within these subgroups, it is useful to sort the subjects by gender, age, or another parameter that is important to you.

Transformation of the form of information.

It is advisable to enter all the signs of interest to you in the table in the form of a decimal number, that is, pre-calculate minutes into decimal fractions of an hour, seconds into decimal fractions of a minute, the number of months into a decimal fraction of a year, etc. This is necessary because the data format for most computer programs in use today imposes its own limitations. Also, try not to enter various text characters (periods, commas, dashes, etc.) into the table without special need.

All information that can be encoded by numbers is better converted into numerical form. This will give more opportunities for different types of data processing. The exception is the first line, which contains the names (more often short names - abbreviations) of the measured indicators. In the form of numbers in the table, you can enter information about those parameters of the sample that can supposedly be significant factors, but you have in qualitative terms.

Methods and main stages of statistical research

The simplest operations can be: numerical coding (men - 1, women - 2; trained - 1, not passed - 2, etc.) and the conversion of qualitative indicators into ranks.

Data validation.

After creating a table on paper or computer, it is necessary to check the quality of the received data. To do this, it is often enough to carefully examine the data array. You should start checking by identifying errors (typos), which consist in the fact that the order of the number is written incorrectly. For example, 100 is written instead of 10, 9.4 is written instead of 94, etc. If you look closely at the columns, this is easy to detect, since parameters that vary greatly are relatively rare. Most often, the values of one parameter have the same order or nearest orders. When collecting data on a computer, it is important to comply with the requirements for the data format in the statistical program used. First of all, this applies to the sign, which must separate the integer part from the fractional part in a decimal number (dot or comma).

The use of methods of mathematical statistics in the processing of primary empirical data is necessary to increase the reliability of the conclusions of a scientific study. At the same time, it is not recommended to limit the use of indicators such as arithmetic averages and percentages. They most often do not provide sufficient grounds for reasonable conclusions from empirical data.

The choice of the method of statistical analysis of the obtained empirical data is a very important and responsible part of the study. And it's better to do it before the data is received. When planning a study, it is necessary to think in advance which empirical indicators will be recorded, by what methods they will be processed, and what conclusions can be drawn with different processing results.

When choosing a statistical criterion it is necessary, first of all, to identify the type of variables (features) and the scale of measurement that was used when measuring indicators and other variables - for example, age, family composition, level of education. Variables can be any indicators that can be compared with each other (that is, measured). It should be borne in mind that nominative and ordinal scales can be widely used in studies: verbal and non-verbal behavioral responses, gender, level of education - all this can be considered as variables. The main thing is to have clear and precise criteria for assigning them to one type or another, depending on the hypotheses and tasks set.

When choosing a statistical criterion, one should also focus on the type of data distribution that was obtained in the study. Parametric tests are used when the distribution of the received data is considered to be normal. A normal distribution is more likely (but not necessarily) to be obtained with samples of more than 100 subjects (it may work with fewer, or it may not work with more). When using parametric criteria, it is necessary to check the normality of the distribution.

For nonparametric criteria, the type of data distribution does not matter. With small sample sizes of subjects, it is advisable to choose nonparametric criteria that give greater confidence in the conclusions, regardless of whether the study obtained a normal distribution of data. In some cases, statistically valid conclusions can be drawn even with samples of 5-10 subjects.

Many studies look for differences in measured indicators among subjects with certain characteristics. When processing relevant data, criteria can be used to identify differences in the level of the trait under study or in its distribution. To determine the significance of differences in the manifestation of a trait in studies, indicators such as the paired Wilcoxon test, the Mann-Whitney U-test, the x-square (x2) test, Fisher's exact test, and the binomial test are often used.

In many studies, the search for the relationship of the studied indicators in the same subjects is carried out. Correlation coefficients can be used to process the relevant data. The relationship of values with each other and their dependence is often characterized by Pearson's linear correlation coefficient and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.

The data structure (and, accordingly, the structure of the studied reality), as well as their relationship, is revealed by factor analysis.

In many studies, it is of interest to analyze the variability of a trait under the influence of any controlled factors, or, in other words, to assess the influence of various factors on the studied trait. For mathematical data processing in such problems, the Mann-Whitney U-test, the Kruskal-Wallis test, the Wilcoxon T-test, the ? 2 Friedman. However, to study the influence, and even more so the mutual influence of several factors on the parameter under study, analysis of variance may be more useful. The researcher proceeds from the assumption that some variables can be considered as causes, and others as consequences. Variables of the first kind are considered factors, while variables of the second kind are considered to be effective features. This is the difference between analysis of variance and correlation analysis, in which it is assumed that changes in one attribute are simply associated with certain changes in another.

In many studies, the significance of changes (shift) of any parameters and manifestations over a certain period of time, under certain conditions (for example, under conditions of corrective action) is revealed. Formative experiments in practical psychology solve precisely this problem. To process the relevant data, coefficients can be used to assess the reliability of the shift in the values of the trait under study. For this, sign criteria, the Wilcoxon T-test, are often used.

It is important to pay attention to the limitations that each criterion has. If one criterion is not suitable for the analysis of the available data, it is always possible to find some other one, perhaps by changing the type of presentation of the data itself. Before doing statistical analysis of empirical data, it is useful to check whether there are critical values corresponding to the amount and type of your data. Otherwise, you may be disappointed when your calculations turn out to be in vain due to the absence of critical values in the table with the sample size that you had.

After getting acquainted with the procedure for calculating the criterion, you can carry out "manual" data processing or use the statistical program of a personal computer.

For computer processing, the most popular programs are SPSS and Statistica.

The use of statistical programs in computer processing speeds up the processing of the material by several orders of magnitude and provides the researcher with such methods of analysis that cannot be implemented in manual processing. However, these advantages can be fully utilized if the researcher has the necessary level of training in this area. Usually, the more powerful a computer program (the more powerful it is), the more time it takes to master. Thus, spending time studying it with rare access to a powerful statistical apparatus is not entirely effective. Very often, the use of such programs to solve even simple tasks also requires a certain amount of skills.

In order to avoid unnecessary difficulties and time costs, it is much more effective to turn to professionals. They will qualitatively and professionally carry out all the necessary mathematical and statistical analysis of your research data: analysis of primary statistics, assessment of the reliability of differences, data normalization, correlation and factor analysis, etc.

After carrying out the necessary statistical analysis of the data, it is necessary to correlate the results obtained with the initially posed hypothesis, with the theoretical justifications of the authors who have studied this topic and previous researchers. Formulate conclusions and interpret the results.

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Main stages of statistical research

Consider the most important method of statistics - statistical observation.

Using various methods and techniques of statistical methodology

requires the availability of comprehensive and reliable information about the studied

object. The study of mass social phenomena includes the stages of collecting

statistical information and its primary processing, information and grouping

observation results in certain aggregates, generalization and analysis

received materials.

At the first stage of statistical research, primary

statistical data, or raw statistical information that

is the foundation of the future statistical building. For the building to be

solid, solid and high-quality should be its basis. If when collecting

primary statistical data, an error was made or the material turned out to be

poor quality, it will affect the correctness and reliability of both

theoretical as well as practical findings. Therefore, statistical

observation from the initial to the final stage - obtaining the final

materials - should be carefully thought out and clearly organized.

Statistical observation provides the source material for generalization, the beginning

which serves as a summary. If during statistical observation about each of its

unit receive information that characterizes it from many sides, then the data

summaries characterize the entire statistical population and its individual parts.

At this stage, the population is divided according to the signs of difference and combined according to

signs of similarity, total indicators are calculated for groups and in

in general. Using the grouping method, the studied phenomena are divided into the most important

types, characteristic groups and subgroups according to essential features. Via

groupings are limited qualitatively homogeneous in a significant respect

totality, which is a prerequisite for the definition and application

summary indicators.

At the final stage of the analysis with the help of generalizing indicators

relative and average values are calculated, a summary assessment is given

variations of signs, the dynamics of phenomena is characterized, indices are applied,

balance constructions, indicators are calculated that characterize the tightness

connections in the change of signs. For the most rational and clear

presentation of digital material, it is presented in the form of tables and graphs.

3. Statistical observation: concept, main forms.

This is a scientific and organizational work to collect data. Forms: stat. 1) reporting, cat. based on documentary accounting. since 1998, 4 unified forms of federal state supervision have been introduced: FP-1 (project issue), FP-2 (investment), FP-3 (financial state of organizations), FP-4 (number of -t workers, labor), 2) specially organized observation (census), 3) a register is a s-ma pok-lei, which characterizes each unit of observation: registers of us- niya, pr-ty, construction sites and contractors. org-tions, retail and wholesale trade. Types of observation: 1) continuous, non-continuous (selective, qualified based on the main array method, monograph). Observation is current, period., One-time. Observation methods: direct, documentary, survey (forwarding agent, questionnaire, private, correspondence). Statistical observations are carried out according to the plan, which includes: program-methodological issues (goals, tasks), organizational issues (time, place). As a result of the observations, errors occur, the cat reduces the accuracy of the observations, therefore, data control is carried out (logical and counting). As a result of checking the authentic data, the following observation errors are revealed: random. errors (registration errors), intentional errors, unintentional (system. and non-system.), errors of representativeness (representativeness).

Program-methodological issues of statistical observation.

Program and methodological issues of statistical observation

Each observation is carried out with a specific purpose.

When conducting it, it is necessary to establish what is to be examined. The following questions need to be addressed:

Object of observation - a set of objects, phenomena, from which information should be collected. When defining an object, its main distinguishing features (features) are indicated. Any object of mass observations consists of their individual units, so it is necessary to decide what is the element of the totality that will serve as the unit of observation.

Unit of observation - this is an integral element of the object, which is the carrier of signs subject to registration and the basis of the account.

Qualification are certain quantitative restrictions for the object of observation.

sign - this is a property that characterizes certain features and characteristics inherent in the units of the studied population.

Organizational issues of statistical observation.

The observation program is drawn up in the form of forms (questionnaires, forms), in which primary data are entered.

A necessary addition to the forms is an instruction that explains the meaning of the questions.

The organizational issues of the program include:

terms of observation;

critical moment of observation;

preparatory work;

The period of observation to which the recorded information is referred. It is called the objective observation time. This might be a certain period of time (day, decade, month) or a certain moment. The moment to which the recorded information relates is called the critical moment of observation.

For example, the critical moment of the micro-census of 1994. was 0.00 h.

on the night of February 13-14. By establishing the critical moment of observation, one can determine the true state of affairs with photographic accuracy.

Preparatory work provides for the provision of observation with documents, as well as the compilation of a list of reporting units, forms, instructions.

Documents m. will be filled in during the observation or based on its results.

An important place in the system of preparatory work is the selection and training of personnel, as well as the briefing of those who will participate in the observation.

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Stages of statistical research.

Stage 1: Statistical observation.

Stage 2: Reduction and grouping of the results of observation into certain populations.

Stage 3: Generalization and analysis of the received materials. Identification of interrelations and scales of phenomena, determination of patterns of their development, development of predictive estimates. It is important to have comprehensive and reliable information about the object under study.

At the first stage of statistical research, primary statistical data, or initial statistical information, is formed, which is the foundation of the future statistical "building".

STAGES OF STATISTICAL RESEARCH

In order for the “building” to be durable, solid and of high quality, its foundation must be. If an error was made in the collection of primary statistical data or the material turned out to be of poor quality, this will affect the correctness and reliability of both theoretical and practical conclusions. Therefore, statistical observation from the initial to the final stage must be carefully thought out and clearly organized.

Statistical observation provides the source material for generalization, the beginning of which is summary. If, during statistical observation, information is obtained about each of its units that characterizes it from many sides, then these reports characterize the entire statistical aggregate and its individual parts. At this stage, the population is divided according to the signs of difference and combined according to the signs of similarity, the total indicators are calculated for the groups and as a whole. Using the grouping method, the studied phenomena are divided into the most important types, characteristic groups and subgroups according to essential features. With the help of groupings, qualitatively homogeneous populations are limited, which is a prerequisite for the definition and application of generalizing indicators.

At the final stage of the analysis, with the help of generalizing indicators, relative and average values are calculated, an assessment of the variation of signs is given, the dynamics of phenomena is characterized, indices and balance constructions are applied, indicators are calculated that characterize the closeness of relationships in changing signs. For the purpose of the most rational and visual presentation of digital material, it is presented in the form of tables and graphs.

The cognitive value of statistics thing is:

1) statistics provides a digital and meaningful coverage of the phenomena and processes under study, serves as the most reliable way to assess reality; 2) statistics gives probative force to economic conclusions, allows you to check various "walking" statements, individual theoretical positions; 3) statistics has the ability to reveal the relationship between phenomena, to show their form and strength.

1. STATISTICAL OBSERVATION

1.1. Basic concepts

Statistical observation — this is the first stage of statistical research, which is a scientifically organized accounting of facts characterizing the phenomena and processes of social life, and the collection of data obtained on the basis of this accounting, scientifically organized according to a single program.

However, not every collection of information is a statistical observation. One can talk about statistical observation only when statistical regularities are studied, i.e. those that manifest themselves in a mass process, in a large number of units of some set. Therefore, statistical observation should be planned, massive and systematic.

Plannedness statistical observation lies in the fact that it is prepared and carried out according to a developed plan, which includes questions of methodology, organization, collection of information, quality control of the collected material, its reliability, and presentation of the final results.

Mass the nature of statistical observation suggests that it covers a large number of cases of manifestation of this process, sufficient to obtain truthful data characterizing not only individual units, but the entire population as a whole.

Systematic statistical observation is determined by the fact that it must be carried out either systematically, or continuously, or regularly.

The following requirements are imposed on statistical observation:

1) completeness of statistical data (completeness of coverage of units of the studied population, aspects of a particular phenomenon, as well as completeness of coverage over time);

2) reliability and accuracy of data;

3) their uniformity and comparability.

Any statistical research must begin with the formulation of its goals and objectives. After that, the object and unit of observation are determined, a program is developed, and the type and method of observation are selected.

Object of observation- a set of socio-economic phenomena and processes that are subject to research, or the exact boundaries within which statistical information will be recorded . For example, during a population census, it is necessary to establish what kind of population is subject to registration - cash, that is, actually located in a given area at the time of the census, or permanent, that is, permanently living in a given area. When surveying industry, it is necessary to establish which enterprises will be classified as industrial. In some cases, one or another qualification is used to limit the object of observation. Qualification- a restrictive feature that all units of the studied population must satisfy. So, for example, during the census of production equipment, it is necessary to determine what is attributed to production equipment, and what to hand tools, which equipment is subject to the census - only operating or also under repair, in stock, reserve.

Unit of observation is called an integral part of the object of observation, which serves as the basis for counting and has features that are subject to registration during observation.

So, for example, in a population census, the unit of observation is each individual person. If the task is also to determine the number and composition of households, then each household will be the unit of observation along with the person.

Observation program- this is a list of issues on which information is collected, or a list of signs and indicators to be registered . The observation program is drawn up in the form of a form (questionnaire, form), in which primary information is entered. A necessary addition to the form is an instruction (or indications on the forms themselves), explaining the meaning of the question. The composition and content of the questions of the observation program depend on the objectives of the study and on the characteristics of the social phenomenon being studied.

The final stage of any statistical research. The concept and forms of statistical observation

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