The initial stage of statistical research is. Statistical methodology and stages of statistical research

To get an idea about a particular phenomenon, to draw conclusions, it is necessary to conduct a statistical study. The subject of statistical research in health care and medicine can be the health of the population, organization medical care, various sections of the activities of medical institutions, factors external environment that affect health status.

The methodical sequence of performing a statistical study consists of certain stages.

Stage 1. Drawing up a plan and program of research.

Stage 2. Collection of material (statistical observation).

Stage 3. Material development, statistical grouping and summary

Stage 4. Statistical analysis of the phenomenon under study, formulation of conclusions.

Stage 5 Literary processing and presentation of the results.

Upon completion of the statistical study, recommendations and management decisions are developed, the results of the study are put into practice, and efficiency is evaluated.

In conducting a statistical study essential element is to follow a strict sequence in the implementation of these stages.

First stage statistical research - drawing up a plan and program - is preparatory, at which the purpose and objectives of the study are determined, a plan and research program are drawn up, a program for summarizing statistical material is developed and organizational issues are resolved.

When starting a statistical study, it is necessary to accurately and clearly formulate the purpose and objectives of the study, to study the literature on this topic.

The goal determines the main direction of research and is, as a rule, not only theoretical, but also practical. The goal is formulated clearly, clearly, unambiguously.

To disclose the goal, the research tasks are defined.

An important point preparatory phase is the development of an organizational plan. The organizational plan of the study provides for the definition of the place (administrative-territorial boundaries of the observation), time (specific terms for the implementation of the observation, development and analysis of the material) and the subject of the study (organizers, performers, methodological and organizational leadership, research funding sources).

Pl a n research d ov a nia includes:

Definition of the object of study (statistical population);

The scope of the study (continuous, non-continuous);

Types (current, one-time);

Collection methods statistical information. Research program includes:

Definition of the unit of observation;

List of questions (accounting signs) to be registered in relation to each unit of observation*

Development of an individual accounting (registration) form with a list of questions and features to be recorded;

Development of table layouts, in which the results of the study are then entered.

For each unit of observation, a separate form is filled out, it contains a passport part, clearly formulated questions of the program, put in a certain sequence, and the date of filling out the document.

As accounting forms, accounting medical forms used in the practice of medical institutions can be used.

Other medical documents (case histories, and individual cards of an outpatient, the history of the development of the child, the history of childbirth), reporting forms of medical institutions, etc. can serve as sources of information.

To enable the statistical development of data from these documents, the information is copied onto specially designed accounting forms, the content of which is determined in each individual case in accordance with the objectives of the study.

At present, in connection with the machine processing of the results of observation using a computer, program questions can be formalized , when questions in the accounting document are put in the form of alternatives (yes, no) , or ready-made answers are offered, from which a specific answer should be selected.

At the first stage of the statistical study, along with the observation program, a program * of the summary of the data obtained is compiled, which includes the establishment of the principles of grouping, the selection of grouping characteristics , determination of combinations of these signs, drawing up layouts of statistical tables.

Second phase- collection statistical material(statistical observation) - consists in the registration of individual cases of the phenomenon under study and the accounting signs characterizing them in registration forms. Before and during the performance of this work, instruction (oral or written) of the observers is carried out, and they are provided with registration forms.

In terms of time, statistical observation can be current and one-time.

At current observation Yu denia the phenomenon is studied for some separate period of time (week, quarter , year, etc.) by daily recording of the phenomenon as each case occurs. An example of a current observation is accounting for the number of births , dead, sick , discharged from the hospital, etc. This takes into account rapidly changing phenomena.

At one-time observation Yu denia statistical data are collected at a certain (critical) point in time. One-time observation is: population census, study physical development children, accounting of hospital beds for horses of the year, certification of medical institutions, etc. Preventive examinations of the population also belong to this type. One-time registration reflects the state of the phenomenon at the time of study. This type of observation is used to study slowly changing phenomena.

The choice of the type of observation over time is determined by the purpose and objectives of the study. For example, the characteristics of hospitalized patients can be obtained as a result of the current registration of those who left the hospital (current observation) or by a one-day census of patients in the hospital (one-time observation).

Depending on the completeness of the coverage of the phenomenon under study, a continuous and non-continuous study is distinguished.

At continuous The study studies all the units of observation included in the population, i.e. the general population. A continuous study is carried out in order to establish the absolute dimensions of the phenomenon, for example, total strength population, total born or deceased total number sick with a particular disease, etc. The continuous method is also used in cases where information is necessary for operational work (accounting for infectious diseases, the workload of doctors, etc.)

At discontinuous The study explores only a part population. It is divided into several types: questionnaire, monographic, main array, selective. The most common in medical research is a selective method.

Mono graphic method - gives a detailed description of individual units of the population, characteristic in any respect, and a deep, comprehensive description of objects.

Main Array Method- involves the study of those objects in which the vast majority of units of observation are concentrated. The disadvantage of this method is that a part of the population remains uncovered by the study, although small in size, but which can differ significantly from the main array.

Questionnaire method - this is the collection of statistical data using specially designed questionnaires addressed to a certain circle of people. This study is based on the principle of voluntariness, so the return of questionnaires is often incomplete. Often the answers to the questions posed bear the imprint of subjectivity and chance. This method is used to obtain an approximate description of the phenomenon under study.

Sampling method- is reduced to the study of some specially selected part of the units of observation to characterize the entire general population. The advantage of this method is to obtain results high degree reliability and significantly lower cost. The study employs a smaller number of performers , moreover, it requires less time.

In medical statistics, the role and place of the sampling method is especially great, since medical workers usually deal with only a part of the phenomenon under study: they study a group of patients with a particular disease, analyze the work of individual departments and medical institutions , evaluate the quality of certain events, etc.

According to the method of obtaining information in the course of statistical observation and the nature of its implementation, several types are distinguished:

1) direct observation(clinical examination of patients , conducting laboratory , instrumental research , anthropometric measurements, etc.)

2) sociological methods : interview method (face-to-face survey), questioning (correspondence survey - anonymous or non-anonymous), etc .;

3) documentary research a nie(copying information from accounting and reporting medical documents, official statistics of institutions and organizations.)

Third stage- grouping and summary of material - begins with checking and clarifying the number of observations , completeness and correctness of the information received , identifying and eliminating errors, duplicate records, etc.

For the correct development of the material, encryption of primary accounting documents is used. , those. designation of each feature and its group with a sign - alphabetic or numeric. Encryption is a technique , facilitating and accelerating material development , improving the quality, accuracy of development. Ciphers - symbols - are developed arbitrarily. When coding diagnoses, it is recommended to use the international nomenclature and classification of diseases; when coding professions - a dictionary of professions.

The advantage of encryption is that, if necessary, after the end of the main development, you can return to the material for development in order to clarify new relationships and dependencies. Encrypted accounting material makes it easier and faster , than unencrypted. After checking, the features are grouped.

grouping- division of the totality of the studied data into homogeneous , typical groups according to the most significant features. Grouping can be carried out on qualitative and quantitative grounds. The choice of a grouping feature depends on the nature of the studied population and the objectives of the study.

Typological grouping is carried out according to qualitative (descriptive, attributive) features, for example, by gender , profession, disease groups, severity of the course of the disease, postoperative complications, etc.

Grouping by quantitative (variation) features is carried out on the basis of the numerical size of the feature , For example , by age , the duration of the disease, the duration of treatment, etc. Quantitative grouping requires a solution to the question of the size of the grouping interval: the interval can be equal, and in some cases - unequal, even include the so-called open groups.

for example , when grouping by age, open groups can be determined: up to 1 year . 50 years and older.

When determining the number of groups proceed from the purpose and objectives of the study. It is necessary that groupings could reveal the patterns of the phenomenon under study. A large number of groups can lead to excessive crushing of the material, unnecessary detailing. A small number of groups leads to obscuring of characteristic features.

Having finished grouping the material, proceed to the summary.

With vodka- generalization of isolated cases , obtained as a result of a statistical study, in certain groups, their counting and entering into table layouts.

A summary of the statistical material is carried out using statistical tables. Table , not filled with numbers , called a layout.

Statistical tables are list , chronological, territorial.

The table has a subject and a predicate. The statistical subject is usually placed on horizontal lines on the left side of the table and reflects the main, main feature. The statistical predicate is placed from left to right along the vertical columns and reflects additional accounting features.

Statistical tables are divided into simple , group and combination.

AT simple tables the numerical distribution of the material according to one attribute is presented , its constituent parts (Table 1). A simple table usually contains a simple list or summary of the totality of the phenomenon under study.

Table 1

Distribution of the dead in the N. hospital by age

AT group tables presents a combination of two signs in connection with each other (Table 2).

table 2

Distribution of the dead in N. hospital by sex and age

AT combin a qi about these tables the distribution of the material according to three or more interrelated features is given (Table 3).

Table 3

Distribution of deaths in N. hospital with different diseases by age and sex

Diagnosis of the underlying disease	Age
0-14	15-19	20-39	40-59	60 and >	Total
m	well	m	well	m	well	m	well	m	well	m	well	m+f
Diseases of the circulatory system.	-	-	-	-
Injury and poisoning		-		-					-
malignancy. neoplasms.	-	-	-	-	-	-
Other zab.	-	-	-	-
Everyone got sick.		-		-

When compiling tables, certain requirements must be met:

Each table should have a heading that reflects its content;

Within the table, all columns should also have clear, concise titles;

When filling out the table, all cells of the table must contain the corresponding numerical data. The cells of the table remaining blank due to the absence of this combination are crossed out ("-"), and in the absence of information in the cell, "n.s." or "...";

After filling the table in the bottom horizontal row and in the last vertical column on the right, the results of vertical columns and horizontal lines are summed up.

Tables must have a single sequential numbering.

In studies with a small number of observations, summarization is done manually. All accounting documents are decomposed into groups in accordance with the sign code. Next, the data is calculated and recorded in the corresponding cell of the table.

Currently, computers are widely used in sorting and summarizing material. . which allow not only to sort the material according to the studied characteristics , but do the calculations.

Fourth stage- statistical analysis - is a crucial stage of the study. At this stage, the calculation of statistical indicators (frequency , structures , the average size of the phenomenon under study), their graphic representation is given , dynamics , trends, connections between phenomena are established . forecasts are given, etc. The analysis involves the interpretation of the data obtained, the assessment of the reliability of the results of the study. In conclusion, conclusions are drawn.

Fifth stage- Literary processing is final. It involves the finalization of the results of a statistical study. The results can be presented in the form of an article, report, report , dissertations, etc. For each type of design, there are certain requirements, which must be observed in the literary processing of the results of a statistical study.

The results of medical and statistical research are being introduced into healthcare practice. Various options for using the results of the study are possible: familiarization with the results of a wide audience of medical and scientific workers; preparation of instructive and methodological documents; formulation of a rationalization proposal and others.

STATISTICAL VALUES

For comparative analysis statistical data statistical values are used: absolute , relative , medium.

Absolute values

The absolute values obtained in the summary tables during the statistical study reflect the absolute size of the phenomenon (number of health care facilities, number of hospital beds, population , the number of deaths, births, illnesses, etc.). A number of statistical studies ends with obtaining absolute values. In some cases, they can be used to analyze the phenomenon under study. , For example , when studying rare phenomena , if necessary, know the exact absolute size of the phenomenon , if necessary, pay attention to individual cases of the phenomenon under study, etc. With a small number of observations , in the case when it is not required to determine the regularity , absolute numbers can also be used.

In a significant proportion of cases, absolute values cannot be used for comparison with data from other studies. For this, relative and average values are used.

Relative values

Relative values (indicators , coefficients) are obtained as a result of the ratio of one absolute value to another. The most commonly used indicators are: , extensive, ratios , visibility.

Intensive- frequency indicators , intensity, prevalence of the phenomenon in the environment , producing this phenomenon. In health care, morbidity is being studied , mortality , disability, birth rate and other indicators of population health. Wednesday , in which the processes take place is the population as a whole or its individual groups (age, gender, social , professional, etc.). In medical-statistical studies, a phenomenon is, as it were, a product of the environment. for example , population (environment) and sick (phenomenon); sick (environment) and dead (phenomenon), etc.

The value of the base is selected in accordance with the value of the indicator - by 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, depending on this, the indicator is expressed as a percentage , ppm , prodecimille, prosantimille.

The intensive indicator is calculated as follows: for example, in Iran in 1995. 67283 thousand inhabitants lived, 380200 people died during the year.

Intensive indicators can be general and special.

General intensive indicators characterize the phenomenon as a whole . For example , total fertility rates , mortality, morbidity, calculated for the entire population of the administrative territory.

Special intensive indicators (by group) are used to characterize the frequency of the phenomenon in various groups(morbidity by sex, age , mortality among children under 1 year of age , lethality for individual nosological Forms, etc.).

Intensive indicators are used: to determine the level . frequencies , prevalence of the phenomenon; to compare the frequency of the phenomenon in two different populations; for learning changes in the frequency of the phenomenon in dynamics.

extensive- indicators of specific gravity, structure, characterize the distribution of the phenomenon into its constituent parts, its internal structure. Extensive indicators are calculated by the ratio of the part of the phenomenon to the whole and are expressed in percentages or fractions of a unit.

The extensive indicator is calculated as follows: for example, in Greece in 1997 there were 719 hospitals, including 214 general hospitals.

Extensive indicators are used to determine the structure of the phenomenon and a comparative assessment of the ratio of its constituent parts. Extensive indicators are always interconnected, since their sum is always equal to 100 percent: for example, when studying the structure of morbidity specific gravity individual disease may increase with its true growth; at the same level, if the number of other diseases has decreased; with a decrease in the number of this disease , if the decrease in the number of other diseases occurs at a faster rate.

Ratios- represent the ratio of two independent, independent of each other , qualitatively different values. Correlation indicators include indicators of the provision of the population with doctors, paramedical workers, hospital beds, etc.

The ratio is calculated as follows: for example, in Lebanon, with a population of 3,789 thousand inhabitants, 3,941 doctors worked in medical institutions in 1996.

visibility- are used for the purpose of a more visual and accessible comparison of statistical values. Visualization metrics provide a convenient way to convert absolute, relative, or average values into an easy-to-compare Form. When calculating these indicators, one of the compared values is equated to 100 (or 1), and the remaining values are recalculated accordingly to this number.

The visibility indicators are calculated as follows: for example, the population of Jordan was: in 1994. - 4275 thousand people, in 1995 - 4440 thousand people , in 1996 - 5439 thousand people.

Visibility indicator: 1994-100%;

1995	=	4460 *100	=	103.9%;


1996	=	5439*100	=	127.2%

The visibility indicators indicate by how many percent or how many times there was an increase or decrease in the compared values. Visual indicators are most often used to compare data over time , to present the patterns of the phenomenon under study in a more visual form.

When using relative values some mistakes may be made. Here are the most common ones:

1. Sometimes a change in the frequency of a phenomenon is judged on the basis of extensive indicators that characterize the structure of the phenomenon, and not its intensity.

3. When calculating special indicators, you should choose the right denominator for calculating the indicator: for example , the postoperative mortality rate should be calculated in relation to the operated , not all patients.

4. When analyzing indicators, the Time factor should be taken into account:

it is impossible to compare indicators calculated for different periods of time: for example, the incidence rate for a year and for half a year , which can lead to erroneous judgments. 5. It is impossible to compare with each other the general intensive indicators calculated from sets that are heterogeneous in composition, since the heterogeneity of the composition of the medium can affect the value of the indicator.

Average values

Average values give a generalizing characteristic of the statistical population according to a certain changing quantitative attribute.

The average value characterizes the entire series of observations with one number, expressing the general measure of the trait under study. It levels out random deviations of individual observations and gives a typical characteristic of a quantitative trait.

One of the requirements when working with averages is the qualitative homogeneity of the population for which the average is calculated. Only then will it objectively reflect the characteristic features of the phenomenon under study. The second requirement is that the average value only expresses the typical sizes of a trait when it is based on a mass generalization of the studied trait, i.e. calculated on a sufficient number of observations.

Average values are obtained from distribution series (variation series).

Variation series- a number of homogeneous statistical values characterizing the same quantitative accounting attribute, differing from each other in their value and arranged in a certain order (decreasing or increasing).

Elements variation series are:

Option-v- numerical value the studied changing quantitative trait.

Frequency- p (pars) or f (frequency) - the frequency of a variant in a variation series, showing how often one or another variant occurs in this series.

Total number of observations- n (numerus) - sum of all frequencies: n=ΣΡ. If the total number of observations is more than 30, the statistical sample is considered large; if n is less than or equal to 30, it is considered small.

Variational series are discontinuous (discrete), consisting of integers, and continuous, when value option expressed as a fractional number. In discontinuous rows, adjacent options differ from each other by an integer, for example: the number of pulse beats, the number of breaths per minute, the number of days of treatment, etc. In continuous rows, options can differ by any fractional values units. Variation series are of three types. Simple- a series in which each option occurs once, i.e. frequencies are equal to one.

O bovine A series in which variants occur more than once.

grouped a ny- row. in which the options are combined into groups according to their size within a certain interval, indicating the frequency of occurrence of all options included in the group.

A grouped variational series is used with a large number of observations and a sick range extreme values option.

The processing of the variational series consists in obtaining the parameters of the variational series ( medium size, standard deviation and average error medium size).

Types of averages.

In medical practice, the following averages are most often used: mode, median, arithmetic mean. Less commonly used are other averages: geometric mean (when processing the results of titration of antibodies, toxins, vaccines); root mean square (when determining the average diameter of a section of cells, the results of skin immunological tests); average cubic (to determine the average volume of tumors) and others.

Fashion(Mo) - the value of the trait, most often found in the aggregate. The mode is taken as the variant that corresponds to the largest number of frequencies in the variation series.

Median(Me) - the value of the trait, which occupies the median value in the variation series. It divides the variation series into two equal parts.

The magnitude of the mode and median is not affected by the numerical values of the extreme options available in the variation series. They cannot always accurately characterize the range of variations and are relatively rarely used in medical statistics. The arithmetic mean value characterizes the variation series more accurately.

With arithmetic mean(M, or) - is calculated on the basis of all numerical values of the studied trait.

In a simple variational series, where options occur only once, the simple arithmetic mean is calculated using the formula:

Where V - numerical values option,

n - number of observations,

Σ - sum sign

In the usual variational series, the arithmetic weighted average is calculated by the formula:

Where V is the numeric values of the option.

Ρ - frequency of occurrence of the variant.

n is the number of observations.

S - sum sign

An example of calculating the arithmetic weighted average is shown in Table 4.

Table 4

Determination of the average duration of treatment of patients in a specialized department of the hospital

In the example above, the mode is 20 days, since it is repeated more often than others - 29 times. Mo = 20. Serial number median is determined by the formula:

The place of the median falls on the 48th option, the numerical value of which is 20. The arithmetic mean, calculated by the formula, is also 20.

Mean values are important generalizing characteristics of the population. However, individual values of the attribute are hidden behind them. Average values do not show variability, fluctuation of the trait.

If the variation series is more compact, less scattered, and all individual values are located around the average, then the average value gives a more accurate description of this population. If the variation series is stretched, the individual values deviate significantly from the average, i.e. there is a large variability of a quantitative trait, then the average is less typical, worse reflects the entire series as a whole.

Equal averages can be obtained from series with varying degrees scattering. So, for example, the average duration of treatment of patients in a specialized department of a hospital will also be 20 if all 95 patients were in hospital for 20 days. Both calculated averages are equal to each other, but obtained from series with varying degrees volatility option.

Therefore, to characterize the variation series, in addition to the average value, another characteristic is needed , allowing to estimate the degree of its fluctuation.

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Introduction

1. Methodology for obtaining initial data

2. Statistical summary and grouping of primary data

2.1 Grouping

2.2 Determination of arithmetic and structural averages

2.3 Histogram and cumulate

2.4 Cost of fixed assets

2.5 Production volume

3. Correlation analysis

3.1 Study of the relationship between factor and performance characteristics. Building a correlation table

3.2 Determination of the degree of closeness of communication

4. Regression analysis

4.1 Simulation

4.2 Prediction

Conclusion

Used literature and programs

Introduction

Statistical study of phenomena public life begins with the stage of statistical observation, during which, in accordance with cognitive goals and objectives, an array of initial data about the object under study is formed, i.e. the information base of the study is formed, on which accounting and control, planning, statistical analysis and management are carried out. At this stage, methods of mass observation based on the "law big numbers", since the quantitative patterns of mass phenomena are clearly manifested when studying only a sufficiently large number of socio-economic phenomena and processes.

Any statistical observation should be prepared and carried out according to a clearly developed plan, which includes issues of methodology, organization and technique of data collection, control of its quality and reliability. Thus, statistical observation must have a program and an organizational plan for conducting it. At the same time, it is necessary to resolve questions about the method, form, type, means, timing, place of organization and conduct of observation, etc., which, in turn, determines its plannedness.

Statistical observation should not be carried out spontaneously, from time to time, but systematically: either continuously or periodically - at regular intervals. This is due to the spatio-temporal variation of the studied socio-economic phenomena and processes.

Statistical observation can be carried out by state statistics bodies, research institutes, economic and analytical services of various organizational structures.

The second stage of statistical research is a statistical summary and grouping of statistical observation data. As a result of statistical observation, information is obtained about each unit of the population, which has numerous features that change in time and space. Under these conditions, there is a need to systematize and generalize the results of statistical observation and obtain, on this basis, a summary of the characteristics of the entire object using generalizing indicators, in order to make it possible to identify the characteristic features, specific features of the statistical population as a whole and its individual components and to discover patterns of socially studied - economic phenomena and processes. From what has been said, it follows that a summary of the primary statistical material is necessary.

The statistical summary is carried out according to a specially developed program that ensures the completeness and reliability of the results obtained. This program contains a list of groups into which the set of observation units can be divided according to individual characteristics, as well as a system of indicators characterizing the studied set of phenomena as a whole and its individual parts.

The third stage of statistical research is the analysis of statistical information. On the this stage based on the results of a statistical study, conclusions are obtained that are useful for practical actions, and the phenomenon or process under study is predicted.

1. Methodology for obtaining initial data

In order to study the dependence of the volume of production on the value of fixed assets for the period 2006-2007. territorial body state statistics in the Chelyabinsk region, a statistical study of instrument-making enterprises was organized.

Produced 20 percent typical sample.

The object of statistical observation is a set of instrument-making enterprises in the city of Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region. The reporting unit of statistical observation is an instrument-making enterprise.

In order to improve the system of sample surveys of instrument-making enterprises, the Goskomstat of the Russian Federation has developed a target Program.

According to the Program, in order to save resources, 20% of the total number of enterprises in the Chelyabinsk region operating on the date of work will be examined. The program activities include a number of organizational, methodological, software and technological works that ensure the preparation and conduct of sample surveys of instrument-making enterprises, the subject of which covers such an issue as the dependence of the volume of production on the value of fixed assets. In order to ensure proper procedures for the preparation of sample surveys of enterprises, the activities of the Program also include the training of personnel in surveys and outreach. The Program is expected to be implemented during 2008-2009. The results of a sample observation of instrument-making enterprises in the city of Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region in terms of two indicators (production volume and cost of fixed assets) are shown in table 1.

Table 1 . The main performance indicators of instrument-making enterprises in the city of Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region for the period 2006 - 2007.

Factory No.	The cost of fixed assets	Production volume, million rubles	Factory No.	The cost of fixed assets	Production volume, million rubles

2. Statistical summary and grouping of primary data

2.1 Grouping

According to the statistical observation data, it can be seen that the variation of signs manifests itself in relatively narrow boundaries and the distribution is uniform. In this case, a grouping is built at equal intervals. The number of groups depends primarily on the degree of fluctuation of the trait: the greater the fluctuation of the trait (range of variation), the more groups can be formed. Below are the formulas for building a statistical grouping.

Since the sample size is not large, we use the formula to determine the number of groups:

Interval value h according to the formula:

The value obtained by formula (1.2), which will be the interval step, is rounded off (rounding should not differ from the original value by more than 10-15%). In this case, for the first interval, the lower boundary will be , and the upper - (+ h) etc. Thus, the lower limit of the i -th interval is equal to the upper limit of the (i -1) -th interval. Abstract >> Philosophy

... stages. 1.Main stages development of sociology 1.1First stage ... , "Main questions of Marxism", "Art and public a life", "K... naturalistic interpretations public phenomena. The essence of ... credibility statistical information in sociological research". ...

Marketing research in tourism

Cheat sheet >> Physical education and sports

Tourism of the region, scientific and statistical research in the field of tourism, training ... (member of the commission). 3. Basic stage: organization of certification work ... etc.). Method is a way of knowing, research phenomena public life, reception or system of receptions in...

Methods statistical research (2)

Test work >> Economics

Costs life. Index... statistical research statistical study consists of three major stages: statistical ... stage research; an organizational plan for its implementation is drawn up; object is defined (set public phenomena ...

Statistical methods of analysis of macroeconomic indicators (1)

Abstract >> Marketing

... statistical study…………………………………………………………………………..4 2.2.System statistical macroeconomic indicators………………..6 2.3. Main... level life population... stage statistical research apply the method statistical ... public phenomena reflected...

State educational institution

Higher professional education

"Altai State Medical University"

Federal Agency for Health and Social Development

Department of Economics and Management

Test

in the discipline "Medical statistics"

on the topic: "Stages of statistical research"

Fulfilled

Checked:

Barnaul - 2009

Introduction……………………………………………………………………………….3

1.1 Statistical observation………………………………………….........5

1.1.2 Program and methodological issues of statistical observation…………………………………………………………………………....12

2 Summary and grouping of statistical observation materials. The concept of a statistical summary, its objectives and content……………………..15

3 Rational forms of presentation of statistical material………….18

3.1 Statistical table and its elements……………...…………………18

3.2 Graphical method for the study of commercial activities…….....19

4 Problem solving…………………………………………………………….20

Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………….21

List of used literature………………………………………...……22

Introduction

Sanitary (medical) statistics studies issues related to medicine, hygiene, health care. She happens to be important part social hygiene and health organization and at the same time is one of the branches of statistics.

In sanitary statistics, there are three main sections: population health statistics, health statistics and clinical statistics.

Tasks of sanitary statistics:

identification of the characteristics of the state of health of the population and the factors that determine it;

study of data on the network, activities and personnel of health facilities, as well as data on the results of medical and recreational activities;

application of methods of sanitary statistics in experimental, clinical, hygienic and laboratory studies.

Materials of sanitary statistics are aimed at finding ways to improve the health of the population and improve the health care system.

Health statistics are used to:

one). At present, the development of in-depth medical-biological, physical, and other research methods, the introduction of new diagnostic equipment leads to the accumulation of numerical data characterizing the state of the body and environment. Given the amount of information about the organism, one can understand the need for data synthesis using statistical methods;

2). Determining the norms of a sanitary and hygienic nature, calculating the doses of drugs, determining the standards of physical development, evaluating the effectiveness of the methods of prevention and treatment used.

Accounting and evaluation indicators reflect the volume or level of the phenomenon under study; analytical indicators are used to characterize the features of the development of a phenomenon, its prevalence in space, the ratio of its parts, and the relationship with other phenomena.

Statistical methodology is a set of general rules (principles) and special techniques and methods of statistical research. The general rules of statistical research are based on the provisions of socio-economic theory and the principle of the dialectical method of cognition. They form the theoretical basis of statistics. Based on a theoretical basis, statistics applies specific methods digital coverage of the phenomenon, which find their expression in three stages (stages) of statistical research:

1. Mass scientifically organized observation, with the help of which primary information about individual units (factors) of the phenomenon under study is obtained.

2. Grouping and summary of material, which is a division of the entire mass of cases (units) into homogeneous groups and subgroups, counting the totals for each group and subgroup, and formatting the results in the form of a statistical table.

3. Processing of statistical indicators obtained during the summary and analysis of the results to obtain reasonable conclusions about the state of the phenomenon under study and the patterns of its development. This is the concept of science - Statistics. The subject of statistics, as a science, is the study of the quantitative side of mass social phenomena in close connection with their qualitative characteristics. Three main features of statistics can be distinguished from this definition:

1. the quantitative side of phenomena is investigated;

2. mass social phenomena are studied;

3. given quantitative characteristic mass phenomena based on the study of qualitative parameters.

Statistics involves the use of a set of dialectical methods of cognition. In the process of statistical research, special methods are also used, invented to better represent statistical populations.

A statistical population is a mass of units united by a single quality basis, but differing from each other in a number of varying characteristics. Variation (change) of signs (more often quantitative) can occur in time, in space, in the mutual change of one sign from another. For example, size wages worker from the number of products released by him.

1.1 Statistical observation

Statistical observation is a systematic scientifically based collection of data or information about socio-economic phenomena and processes. Statistical observation is the initial stage of economic and statistical research.

1) Statistical observation must meet the following requirements: observed phenomena must have scientific or practical value, express certain socio-economic types of phenomena;

2) the direct collection of mass data should ensure the completeness of the facts related to this issue, as phenomena are in constant change, development. If complete data are not available, the analysis and conclusions may be erroneous;

3) to ensure the reliability of statistical data, a thorough and comprehensive check of the quality of the collected facts is necessary, which is one of the most important characteristics of statistical observation;

4) scientific organization statistical observation is necessary in order to create best conditions to obtain objective data.

The tasks facing the manager determine the purpose of supervision. The overall goal of statistical observation is information support management. the goal determines the object of statistical observation - a set of phenomena, objects covered by observation. The object of observation consists of certain units. A person, a fact, an object, a process, etc. can act as a unit of an aggregate. The unit of observation is the primary element of the object of statistical observation. This element is the carrier of signs registered during observation. The unit of observation is the element of the population for which the required data are collected. The choice of the object and units of observation depends on the specific conditions. Units of observation have many different features. Correctness, which is manifested not in an individual phenomenon, but in a mass of homogeneous phenomena, when summarizing the data of a statistical population, is called a statistical regularity. The law of large numbers is of fundamental importance for the study of statistical patterns. In a large number of observations, random multidirectional deviations cancel each other out. In the process of observation, the most significant or interrelated features are used to record data. Clarity in determining the unit of observation makes it possible to reasonably determine the recorded signs of observation when minimum quantity features related to the problem or phenomenon under study. Refinement and formation of features of the unit of observation is carried out on the basis of the following general rules: These general approaches in determining the features of the unit of observation are complemented by specific features of the processes under study.

The unit of observation should not be confused with the reporting unit. A reporting unit is such a unit from which reporting data is received in a conditional manner according to approved forms. If the observation is carried out by reporting, then the reporting unit can basically be the same as the observation unit. The reporting unit is also called informing. It may not match the unit of observation.

After defining the object, the researcher must highlight the boundaries that define the studied population, phenomenon. To limit the object, specific values or limits of features are set. Such quantitative restrictions on features are called qualifications. This is a series of signs quantitative value which, when conducting statistical observation, serves as the basis for accounting (or not attributing) a unit in the studied population.

The point or period of observation is the time at which the data is recorded. The moment of observation is set in accordance with the purpose, features of the phenomenon. In practice, it is also called the critical moment. Some phenomena, processes have seasonal or other cyclical components.

1.1.1 Classification of statistical observation according to various criteria

Statistical observation is subdivided into:

1) by type of observation into 2 groups:

By coverage of population units into continuous and non-continuous;

INTRODUCTION

Main stages and methods of statistical research

The most important economic indices and their relationships

Task #1

CONCLUSION

REFERENCES

introduction

The growing interest in statistics is caused by the current stage of economic development in the country, the formation of market relations. This requires deep economic knowledge in the field of collection, processing and analysis of economic information.

Statistical literacy is essential integral part vocational training every economist, financier, sociologist, political scientist, as well as any specialist dealing with the analysis of mass phenomena, be it social, economic, technical, scientific, and others. The work of these groups of specialists is inevitably associated with the collection, development and analysis of data of a statistical (mass) nature. Often they themselves have to carry out statistical analysis various types and orientation, or to get acquainted with the results of statistical analysis performed by others. At present, a worker employed in any field of science, technology, production, business, etc., related to the study of mass phenomena, is required to be at least a statistically literate person. Ultimately, it is impossible to successfully specialize in many disciplines without mastering some kind of statistical course. So great importance is familiar with general categories, principles and methodology of statistical analysis.

As is known, for the statistical practice of the Russian Federation and the CIS countries in recent years critical issue there was an adequate informational reflection of new socio-economic phenomena. This, in particular, includes the organization of obtaining and analyzing data characterizing the change in ownership and the privatization process, non-state employment and unemployment, the activities of market financial and credit structures and a radical reform of the tax system, new types of migration of citizens and support for the poor who have arisen. social groups and much more. In addition, in order to track the introduction of market relations and the emerging realities of a serious adjustment, they required a system of indicators, the collection and development of data in the traditional areas of statistical observation: taking into account the main results of industrial and agricultural production, domestic and foreign trade, the activities of objects social sphere etc. However, pressing need obtaining adequate and clear information is now systematically increasing.

Recently, approaches to the organization of statistical monitoring of socio-economic phenomena of life have not undergone significant changes.

.Main stages and methods of statistical research

Seeing how First stage research is associated with the collection of initial data on the issue under study. It is characteristic of many sciences. However, each science has its own specifics, differing in its observations. Therefore, not every observation is statistical.

Statistical research is a scientifically organized collection, summary and analysis of data (facts) on socio-economic, demographic and other phenomena and processes of public life in a state, with registration of their most significant features in accounting documentation.

Distinctive features(specificity) of statistical research are: purposefulness, organization, mass character, consistency (complexity), comparability, documentation, controllability, practicality.

In general, a statistical study should:

ü To have a socially useful goal and universal (state) significance;

ü Relate to the subject of statistics in the specific conditions of its place and time;

ü Express the statistical type of accounting (and not accounting and not operational);

ü Carried out according to a pre-developed program with its scientifically based methodological and other support;

ü To carry out the collection of mass data (facts), which reflect the entire set of causal and other factors that characterize the phenomenon in many ways;

ü Register in the form of accounting documents of the established form;

ü Guarantee the absence of observational errors or reduce them to the minimum possible;

ü Provide for certain quality criteria and ways to control the collected data, ensuring their reliability, completeness and content;

ü Focus on cost-effective technology for collecting and processing data;

ü To be a reliable information base for all subsequent stages of statistical research and all users of statistical information.

Studies that do not meet these requirements are not statistical. Statistical studies are not, for example, observations and studies: mothers with a playing child (personal question); viewers for theatrical production(there is no accounting documentation for the spectacle); a researcher for physical and chemical experiments with their measurements, calculations and documentary registration (not mass-public data); a doctor for patients with the maintenance of medical cards (operational records); accountant for the movement of funds in the bank account of the enterprise (accounting); journalists for the public and private life of government officials or other celebrities (not the subject of statistics).

Statistical population - a set of units that have mass character, typicality, qualitative uniformity and the presence of variation.

The statistical population consists of materially existing objects (Employees, enterprises, countries, regions), is the object of statistical research.

Statistical observation is the first stage of statistical research, which is a scientifically organized collection of data on the studied phenomena and processes of social life.

Stage 1. Statistical research begins with the formation of a primary statistical information base for the selected set of indicators.

ü Carrying out statistical observations.

ü Use of official state and corporate (branded) sources.

ü Use of scientific statistical research in journals, newspapers, monographs, etc.

ü Use of electronic media (Internet, CD, floppy disks, etc.).

Stage 2. Primary generalization and grouping of statistical data.

ü Summaries, groupings, histograms, polygons, cumulates (ogives), graphs of frequency distribution (frequencies).

ü Formation of series of dynamics and their primary analysis. Graphical forecast (with the concept of "optimist", "pessimist", "realist").

ü Calculation of moments of the K-th order (averages, variances, measures of skewness, measurement of kurtosis) in order to determine the indicators of the center of expansion of the indicators of variation, indicators of skewness (asymmetry), indicators of kurtosis (pointiness).

ü Formation and primary calculations of complex statistical indicators (relative, summary multilevel).

ü Formation and primary calculations of index indicators.

Stage 3. The next stage of statistical research includes the economic interpretation of the primary generalization.

ü Economic and financial evaluation of the object of analysis.

ü Formation of anxiety (satisfaction) of economic and financial situations.

ü Warning about approaching threshold statistical values in applied, as a rule, macroeconomic problems.

ü Diversification of the primary statistical generalization of the obtained applied results along the hierarchy of power, partnership, business.

Stage 4. Computer analysis of primary and generalized extended (volumetric) statistical data.

ü Variation Analysis of Extended Statistical Data.

ü Analysis of the dynamics of extended statistical data.

ü Analysis of extended statistical data links.

ü Multidimensional summaries and groupings.

Stage 5. Computer forecasting in the selected most important areas.

ü Method Least Squares(MNK).

ü Moving averages.

ü Technical analysis.

ü Summary analysis and forecast options views with recommendations for management and investment adjustments.

Stage 6. Generalized analysis of the obtained results and checking them for reliability according to statistical criteria.

Stage 7. The final stage of the statistical study is the adoption of a management decision.

2.The most important economic indices and their relationships

statistical study data public

A feature of indices is to measure the role of individual factors in the dynamics of complex indicators. Many statistics are interrelated, and this relationship is multiplicative in nature, i.e., it manifests itself in the fact that one indicator is the product of a number of others. For example, trade turnover can be represented as the product of the quantity of sold products by the price (T \u003d pq), the gross harvest of a particular crop - as the product of the yield per area (Vsb - yP), the volume of output - as the product of the number of employees per and "labor productivity ( q = wT), etc.

Aggregate Index Relationships. Any aggregate index is built on the principle of separate consideration of the influence of individual factors on the change in a complex indicator.

The aggregate price index reflects the change in value due to price changes (when the volume of production is fixed at the level of the reporting period), i.e. the price index is a factor in relation to the cost index:

Calculated for complex interrelated indicators, which are the product of two (or more) factors, the indices should be in the same relationship as the indicators themselves.

Individual index relationships. The production volume index will be is equal to the product the index of the number of workers on the index of labor productivity, and the index of the gross harvest of individual crops - the product of the index of the sown area by the yield index, etc. This relationship is clearly manifested in individual indices. For turnover (pq), price (p) and quantity of product (q) for one product, the following ratio of indices:

For the volume of production (q), the number of workers and labor productivity w= q/ T:

Relationships of common indices. AT general indices factor indices should be built in such a way as to ensure the necessary relationship between factor and performance indices.

For the same indices of trade turnover, prices and physical volume, this relationship can be provided as follows: variant:

In both cases, the relationship is provided, the price and volume indices in variants I and II are not equivalent and, considered as factor indices, unequally reflect the influence of these factors on the change in trade turnover.

Interrelations of Other Indices Interrelated indices include indices of variable composition (reflecting changes in average levels of quality indicators), indices of structural shifts, and indices of fixed composition, between which there is the following relationship:

Based on the relationship between these indices, it is possible to analyze and determine the influence of the structural factor and the change in the indexed value itself on the dynamics of the average levels of the indicator under study.

There are interrelations between the most important indices, which allow obtaining others on the basis of some indices. Knowing, for example, the value of chain indices for a certain period of time, it is possible to calculate the basic indices. Conversely, if the basic indices are known, then by dividing one of them by the other one can obtain chain indices. The existing relationships between the most important indices make it possible to identify the influence of various factors on the change in the phenomenon under study, for example, the relationship between the index of the cost of production, the physical volume of production and prices. Other indexes are also related. So, the production cost index is the product of the production cost index and the index of the physical volume of production: . The index of time spent on production can be obtained by multiplying the index of the physical volume of production and the value, the reciprocal of the index of labor intensity, i.e. labor productivity index: . There is an important relationship between the indices of the physical volume of production and the index of labor productivity. The labor productivity index is the ratio of the average production output (in comparable prices) per unit of time (or per employee) in the current and base periods. The index of the physical volume of production is equal to the product of the labor productivity index and the index of working hours (or the number of employees). The relationship between individual indices can be used to identify individual factors that affect the phenomenon under study.

Build a structural grouping by revenue from sales of products, forming five groups at equal intervals. Build an analytical grouping of enterprises to study the relationship between sales revenue and the cost of sales, forming five groups of enterprises at equal intervals, characterizing each group and the totality as a whole: the number of enterprises; the cost of goods sold - total and on average per enterprise. Based on the data of the analytical grouping, calculate the empirical correlation ratio. Present the grouping results in a table and draw conclusions.

conclusion

The task of socio-economic statistics as a branch of human activity has always been to provide information requests to the public, social structures, scientific institutions and management bodies about ongoing processes and phenomena. This is necessary condition study, forecasting and adoption on this basis of effective management decisions at the state and regional levels.

On the basis of statistical information, the state develops its economic and social policy, evaluates the results, makes socio-economic and criminological forecasts.

The ongoing changes in our country have caused the need for a qualitatively new statistics. In the context of the formation of a market economy, the primary and fundamental task of developing theory and practice is to reform the general methodological and organizational foundations of state statistics. It becomes the property of the whole society. It is pleasant to note that this also affected legal statistics.

From the foregoing, we can conclude that the organization of statistical work in our country at the present stage is based on the following basic principles:

a) centralized management of statistics;

b) unified organization and methodology;

c) the inseparable connection of statistical bodies with the bodies government controlled;

d) reliability and openness of socio-economic statistics.

bibliographic list

1.Godin, A. M. Statistics: textbook / A. M. Godin. - Moscow: Dashkov i K°, 2012. - 451 p.

.Eliseeva, I. I. Statistics: [advanced course]: textbook for bachelors / I. I. Eliseeva et al.]. - Moscow: Yurayt: ID Yurayt, 2011. - 565 p.

.Nivorozhkina, L.I. Statistics: textbook for bachelors: textbook /. - Moscow: Dashkov and K º: Science-Spectrum, 2011. - 415 p.

.Statistics: textbook / [I. I. Eliseeva and others]. - Moscow: Prospect, 2011. - 443 p.

.Statistics: theory and practice in Excel: educational / V. S. Lyalin, I. G. Zvereva, N. G. Nikiforova. - Moscow: Finance and statistics: Infra-M, 2012. - 446,

.Tumasyan, A. A. Industry statistics: textbook / A. A. Tumasyan, L. I. Vasilevskaya. - Minsk: New knowledge. - Moscow: Infra-M, 2012. - 429 p.

.Chetyrkin E.M. Statistical forecasting methods. - M.: Statistics, 2014.

.Informatics in statistics: Dictionary-reference book. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2013.

.Korolev Yu.G., Rabinovich R.M., Shmoylova R.A. Statistical Modeling and Forecasting: Textbook. - M.: MESI, 2011

.Course of socio-economic statistics: Textbook for universities / Ed. M.G. Nazarova. - M.: Finstatinform, UNITI-DANA, 2011.

.Statistical Analysis in Economics / Ed. G. L. Gromyko. - M.: MGU, 2012

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The concept of studying the quantitative aspects of objects and phenomena was formed long ago, from the moment a person developed elementary skills in working with information. However, the term "statistics", which has come down to our time, was borrowed much later from Latin and comes from the word "status", which means "a certain state of things." "Status" was also used in the sense of "political condition" and was fixed in almost all European languages in this semantic meaning: English "state", German "Staat", Italian "stato" and its derivative "statista" - a connoisseur of the state.

The word “statistics” was widely used in the 18th century and was used in the meaning of “state science”. Statistics is a branch of practical activity aimed at collecting, processing, analyzing and providing public use of data on the phenomena and processes of public life.

Analysis is a method scientific research object by considering its individual aspects and components.

Economic-statistical analysis is the development of a methodology based on the widespread use of traditional statistical and mathematical-statistical methods in order to control the adequate reflection of the phenomena and processes under study.

Stages of statistical research. Statistical research takes place in three stages:

1) statistical observation;
2) summary of received data;
3) statistical analysis.

At the first stage, using the method of mass observations, primary statistical data are collected.

At the second stage of the statistical study, the collected data are subjected to primary processing, summary and grouping. The grouping method allows you to select homogeneous populations, divide them into groups and subgroups. Summary - this is the receipt of totals for the population as a whole and its individual groups and subgroups.

The results of grouping and summary are presented in the form of statistical tables. The main content of this stage is the transition from the characteristics of each unit of observation to the summary characteristics of the population as a whole or its groups.

At the third stage, the obtained summary data are analyzed by the method of generalizing indicators (absolute, relative and average values, variation indicators, index systems, methods mathematical statistics, tabular method, graphical method, etc.).

Fundamentals of statistical analysis:

1) assertion of facts and establishment of their assessment;
2) detection characteristic features and causes of the phenomenon;
3) comparison of the phenomenon with normative, planned and other phenomena, which are taken as the basis for comparison;
4) formulation of conclusions, forecasts, assumptions and hypotheses;
5) statistical check put forward assumptions (hypotheses).

Analysis and generalization of statistical data - The final stage statistical research, the ultimate goal of which is to obtain theoretical conclusions and practical conclusions about the trends and patterns of the studied socio-economic phenomena and processes. The tasks of statistical analysis are: determination and evaluation of the specifics and features of the phenomena and processes under study, the study of their structure, interrelations and patterns of their development.

Statistical analysis of data is carried out in close connection with the theoretical, qualitative analysis the essence of the studied phenomena and the corresponding quantitative tools, the study of their structure, relationships and dynamics.

Statistical analysis is a study of the characteristic features of the structure, connection of phenomena, trends, patterns of development of socio-economic phenomena, for which specific economic-statistical and mathematical-statistical methods are used. Statistical analysis is completed by the interpretation of the obtained results.

In statistical analysis, signs are divided according to the nature of their influence on each other:

1. Sign-result - the sign analyzed in this study. The individual dimensions of such a feature in individual elements of the population are influenced by one or more other features. In other words, the attribute-result is considered as a consequence of the interaction of other factors;
2. Sign-factor - a sign that influences the studied sign (feature-result). Moreover, the relationship between the sign-factor and the sign-result can be quantitatively determined. Synonyms this term in statistics are, "factor sign", "factor". It is necessary to distinguish between the concepts of a sign-factor and a sign-weight. A sign-weight is a sign that must be taken into account in the calculations. But, the sign-weight does not affect the studied sign. A feature-factor can be considered as a feature-weight, i.e., taken into account in the calculations, but not every feature-weight is a feature-factor. For example, when studying in a group of students the relationship between the time of preparing for an exam and the number of points obtained in the exam, the third attribute should also be taken into account: "The number of people certified for a certain score." The last feature is not influencing the result, however, will be included in the analytical calculations. It is this trait that is called the weight trait, and not the factor trait.

Before proceeding with the analysis, it is necessary to check whether the conditions that ensure its reliability and correctness are met:

- Reliability of primary digital data;
- Completeness of coverage of the studied population;
- Comparability of indicators (accounting units, territory, calculation method).

The main concepts of statistical analysis are:

1. Hypothesis;
2. Decisive function and decisive rule;
3. Sample from the general population;
4. Assessment of the characteristics of the general population;
5. Confidence interval;
6. trend;
7. Statistical relationship.

Analysis is the final stage of statistical research, the essence of which is the identification of relationships and patterns of the phenomenon under study, the formulation of conclusions and proposals.