“M.V. Karmanov Population statistics Educational and practical manual Recommended by the Presidium of the Scientific and Methodological Council for Distance Education in Economics and Management as ... "

Ministry of General and Vocational Education

Russian Federation

Moscow State University

economics, statistics and informatics

International Academy of Sciences high school

M.V. Karmanov

Population statistics

Scientific and Methodological Council

for distance education

in Economics and Management

as a teaching aid

for the system of higher and additional education

Moscow - 1999

BBK 60.7 K 24 Karmanov M.V. POPULATION STATISTICS: Educational and practical guide / Moscow State University of Economics, Statistics and Informatics. - M.: MESI, 1999. - 77 p.

The manual discusses the method, objectives, organization and system of indicators of population statistics.

The manual is intended for students and trainees studying in all forms of education using distance learning technologies, as well as for teachers of higher and secondary specialized educational institutions.

Karmanov Mikhail Vladimirovich,

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor Editorial Board VP Tikhomirov, Academician of the International Academy of Sciences of Higher Education, Doctor of Economics, Professor (Chairman); Rubin Yu.B., Academician of the International Academy of Sciences of Higher Education, Doctor of Economics, Professor; Soldatkin VI, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor; Khoroshilov A.V., Candidate of Economic Sciences, Professor, Dik V.V., Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor; Lednev V.A., candidate of economic sciences, associate professor; Mkhitaryan V.S., Academician of the International Academy of Sciences of Higher Education, Doctor of Economics, Professor; Romanov A.A., Candidate of Economic Sciences, Professor, Samoilov V.A., Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor; Lupanov K.Yu., candidate of economic sciences, associate professor.

ISBN 5-7764-0136-4 © Karmanov Mikhail Vladimirovich, 1999 © Moscow State University of Economics, Statistics and Informatics, Edition 1st Edition 1st Contents Introduction 4

1. Main text 5

1.1. Subject, methods and information base of population statistics 5

1.2. Population size and composition statistics 16

1.3. Vital statistics 27

–  –  –

Introduction Elements of population statistics, as a branch of science and practice, arose in ancient times from the objective need of people for accurate and reliable information about the size and composition of society (the formation of troops, taxation, the creation of stocks of products, etc.).

Currently, the relevance of the statistical study of the population is most clearly visible in two main areas:

1) society as a producer of material goods;

2) society as a consumer of material goods.

The first aspect is related to the fact that the population is the basis for the formation of labor resources, without which the objects and tools of labor are dead, and the production process itself is impossible. The second aspect reflects the fact that the size and composition of the population are the most important parameters of the capacity and market conditions. In this regard, population statistics are of great importance for solving a wide range of managerial, production and scientific tasks in any state of the world.

1. Main text

1.1. Subject, methods and information base of population statistics 1.1.1. Object, subject of population statistics, its relationship with other sciences Population as an object of research is a set of people living in a certain territory. From a mathematical point of view, the population is a non-empty population in which at least one person is present. It is always considered in relation to existing territorial-administrative units. In this case, the territorial units are the globe, parts of the world, continents, islands, etc., and the administrative units are countries, provinces, regions, districts, etc.

The population, as an object of statistical research, has two fundamental features: dynamism and heterogeneity of composition. Human society, due to fertility, mortality and migration, is constantly changing its size and structural proportions. On the other hand, the population is highly differentiated in many ways - sex, age, nationalities, marital status, place of residence, etc. As a result, a heterogeneous and rapidly changing object is always quite complex for various accounting operations.

The subject of population statistics is the quantitative patterns of demographic phenomena and processes. Demographic phenomena are birth, death, marriage, etc., considered as single acts. In their total mass, demographic phenomena in relation to specific temporal and spatial boundaries constitute demographic processes: fertility, mortality, marriage, etc. For example, the birth rate is the totality of all births of children in a given territory for a certain period of time.

Population statistics should not be identified with demography - the science of the most general laws of population development in historical, political, economic, social, legal and other aspects, since it serves not only as an important tool for demographic research, but is also an independent branch of socio-economic statistics.

The relationship of population statistics with other sciences is most clearly visible in following questions: with management - on the characteristics of the population as an object of management; with history - on the impact of historical events on demographic processes; with geography - on the issues of accommodation and resettlement of the population; with sociology - on issues of social activity of the population; with medicine - on issues of morbidity, longevity and mortality of the population; with industry statisticians - on the formation and use of labor resources, the level and lifestyle of the people, etc.

1.1.2. Methodological base and tasks of population statistics

The statistical study of the population is primarily built on the basis of general scientific methods of cognition of reality:

demographic phenomena and processes are considered in interrelation (goal: identification of cause-and-effect relationships of development);

demographic phenomena and processes are considered in dynamics (goal: establishing development trends);

demographic phenomena and processes are considered in comparison and comparison (purpose: determination of the specifics of the object of study).

The core of the methodological base of population statistics is the methods of the theory of statistics: statistical observation, sampling, absolute and relative values, groupings, averages, time series, indices, tables, graphs, correlation and regression analysis, etc.

Like any independent branch of science, population statistics has its own (specific) research methods. These include: measuring scales demographic processes, age and sex pyramids, standardization, survival tables, longitudinal and transverse analysis, etc.

The methodological basis of population statistics makes it possible to implement a number of important scientific and practical tasks. The main among them are: determining the population size, studying the composition of the population, characterizing the dynamics of the population, studying the natural and migratory movement of the population, assessing the parameters of population reproduction, building population forecasts.

The actual solution of these tasks is carried out on the basis of a system of indicators of population statistics, which includes the following sections:

1. Indicators of the size and composition of the population;

2. Indicators of the natural movement of the population;

3. Indicators of the migratory movement of the population;

4. Indicators of the dynamics and reproduction of the population;

5. Indicators of the consequences of demographic development and the effectiveness of demographic policy.

Fundamentally, the first section of the system of indicators reflects the state of the population, the second and third sections reflect the development of the population, the fourth and fifth - the results of the development of the population.

1.1.3. Information base of population statistics

The information base of population statistics covers six main sources:

1) census;

2) sample surveys;

3) current accounting;

4) registers;

5) automated data bank;

6) anamnestic examinations.

A census is a special scientifically organized survey in order to obtain information about the size and composition of the population. Its invaluable practical significance lies in the fact that, on the one hand, this is the most important state affair in terms of ensuring the process of managing society, on the other hand, it is the most important statistical operation in terms of understanding the patterns of demographic development.

Modern population censuses are conducted in strict accordance with certain principles, which include:

Universal character (coverage of the entire territory and the entire population of the state);

Unity of the accounting program for the entire population of the country;

Simultaneous nature of accounting (registration of the entire population as of the same date);

Extremely short accounting terms;

Direct receipt of information from the population;

Individualization of information (collection of data about each person);

Self-determination (the population decides on its own whether to classify itself as a particular group in the context of the accounting program);

Centralization (the census is managed from a single center).

The high mobility of the population, as an object of statistical observation, makes it necessary to solve questions about the categories of the population being enumerated, the moment, date and period of the census. In our country, in the last censuses of the population, two categories were distinguished. The actual population (HP) is people who were at the time of registration in the census in a given territory, regardless of whether they live here permanently or temporarily. Resident population (PN) is the people who permanently reside in the area. For the mutual linking of these categories, two auxiliary categories were used: temporarily residing (TP) and temporarily absent (TO), and the period of temporary residence or absence is limited to 6 months.

The general connection between the main and auxiliary categories was built as follows:

HH \u003d PN + VP - VO.

The population is counted in the census as of a specific point in time, which is called the moment of registration. In this case, the principle of “instant photography” is used, i.e., for example, those born before the moment of registration will be included in the census materials, but after it they will not. In fact, the moment of registration is a certain hour of the day when most of the population is at their place of permanent residence (12 am).

The day (day) following the moment of registration is called the date of the census.

Quite specific requirements are imposed on it: the least mobility of the population (day of the week, month and season of the year), the most favorable conditions for the work of the census staff, approximation in time to the beginning of the year, taking into account the interests of related surveys.

The term of the census is the number of days during which the population is registered. It depends on many factors, among which are: the size and composition of the population, the distribution of the population on the territory and its transport accessibility, the features of the census program (the number and complexity of questions), the number and level of training of the census staff, etc.

A particularly important issue in the organization of population registration is the choice of the census method. In population statistics, there are two main methods of conducting a census - the survey and self-enumeration. The survey involves the collection of data by specially trained personnel (enumerators) through direct contact with the population.

Self-enumeration is focused on self-completion of census questionnaires by the population, i.e. survey programs. Each of these methods has its advantages and disadvantages: a survey is good for obtaining uniform and high-quality data, but it is costly, and self-calculation is cheaper, reduces registration time, but there is a high probability of errors and loss of part of the questionnaires. In our country, historically, polls are more preferred in censuses.

In addition to the survey and self-calculation, the direct method can be used, i.e. when the population is supposed to appear at a strictly established place to provide information about themselves. In some cases, a combined method is also used, which allows the joint use of a survey and self-calculation (simple questions are filled in by self-calculation, and complex questions - by a survey).

The practical conduct of a population census is impossible without special tools, i.e. documents, attributes and accessories. They are based on the census program - a list of questions to the population. It consists of address, main and additional parts. The address part covers questions fixing the territorial affiliation (no. of the census department, no. of the instructor area, no. of the enumeration participant), last names, first names, patronymics and intra-family ties (for example, attitude to the family member recorded first) of the respondents. The main part includes questions aimed at clarifying the category of the population being enumerated;

demographic characteristics of the population (sex, age, marital status, nationality, native language, etc.); socio-economic characteristics of the population (education, place of work, occupation, source of livelihood, social group, etc.); reflection of the natural and migratory movement of the population (number of children born, length of stay, etc.). The supplementary part contains questions related to the census. As a rule, they are specific to each specific survey (for example, in the last census of the population of our country, the living conditions of citizens were studied in detail).

In the population censuses of our country, the sampling method has been widely used. So in 1970, 1979 and 1989. 25% of the inhabitants (by means of mechanical selection, every fourth dwelling was specially singled out), in addition to the continuous census, additionally, according to a broader program, answered the questions of the sample census. This made it possible to obtain detailed data and significantly deepen the survey.

In the historical aspect, nine population censuses were conducted in Russia: in 1897, 1920, 1926, 1937, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979 and 1989. The next census is scheduled for 1999.

In general, censuses, as a source of information about the population, provide fairly accurate and detailed data on the size and composition of human society. However, they are momentary in nature, are carried out once every few years and require significant material and labor costs.

A sample survey is a form of organization of observation in which not the entire population is subject to registration, but only a certain and strictly established part of it. It can be carried out independently of the census and solve its specific tasks in accordance with the monitoring program.

A promising direction in the application of the sampling method in demography is the creation of a permanent sampling network for studying the population (panels). However, at the same time, especially at the present time, we have to seriously address the issue of material remuneration for respondents, i.e. persons providing information.

Sample surveys have a number of advantages over censuses for very specific items. First, they provide a significant reduction in material and labor costs (due to incomplete coverage of the population, the registration period, the number of census staff, and the cost of instruments are reduced). Secondly, it becomes possible to expand the survey program and obtain detailed data on the population.

Sample socio-demographic surveys of the inhabitants of our country in 1985 and 1994 can be cited as examples of selective observation, which made it possible to obtain valuable information for managing and predicting the development of society.

However, sample surveys of the population should not be absolutized, and one should always remember that their organization requires the solution of a whole group of complex methodological issues: determining the size of the sample, as well as the method of selecting the population; achieving representativeness of the sample (its characteristics may not coincide with the characteristics of the entire population), etc.

The current registration of the population is a state system of constant monitoring of the natural and migratory movement of society. It is based on three main principles - universality, continuity and mandatory registration of demographic events.

The current vital record covers the registration of births, deaths, marriages and divorces, which is carried out by the registry offices (registration of civil status). Informants in the registration of natural demographic events are: birth - parents, relatives, representatives of institutions; death - relatives, representatives of institutions; marriage and divorce are the participants themselves. At the same time, the state regulates the following mandatory registration periods: birth - 1 month; death - 3 days (violent death - 24 hours);

marriage - 1-3 months; Divorce has not been set.

The vital registration program includes the following main issues:

Birth - surname, name, patronymic of the newborn, date of birth, place of birth, sex of the newborn, whether the child was born dead or alive, alone or in multiple births, in what order the mother has, information about the parents - age, nationality, place of work, occupation, source of livelihood, place of permanent residence, etc.;

Death - last name, first name, patronymic of the deceased, date of death, place of death, cause of death, gender, age, level of education, marital status, place of permanent residence, etc.;

Marriage - general information about those who are married: last name, first name, patronymic, date of birth, age, place of birth, place of permanent residence, marital status at the time of marriage, nationality, place of work, etc.;

Divorce - general information about those who ended the marriage: last name, first name, patronymic, age, nationality, place of permanent residence, place of work, occupation, source of livelihood, etc.

The current record of the migration movement of the population covers the registration of territorial movements of residents (arrival and departure). Its organization in our country is entrusted to the internal affairs bodies (passport offices). The procedure for accounting for migration is stipulated special rules on registration and discharge (or registration) and is carried out on the basis of filling in statistical arrival (departure) coupons. They reflect: surname, name, patronymic, month and year of birth, place of birth, nationality, where (where) arrived, address of arrival (departure), purpose of arrival (departure), date of arrival (departure), information about children under 16 years old (gender, year and month of birth), other questions.

Statistical accounting coupons are not filled out for persons who have gone to study or on a business trip for up to 1.5 months, who have gone to their country house, on vacation, or who have changed their place of residence within the same locality.

The practical significance of the current accounting of the natural and migratory movement of the population lies in the continuous monitoring of demographic processes. Moreover, in inter-census periods, it serves as a solid base for establishing the actual population size and studying its composition according to the most important features.

At the same time, current accounting is a rather cumbersome system that requires constant and large financial costs.

Registers are a specially organized system of individual cards for recording information about the population permanently residing in a given territory.

Most widespread they were obtained in the Scandinavian countries and are based on the following principles: personification of accounting (collection of information about each person), continuous observation, obligation for the population, confidentiality of information.

In our country, registers have received partial distribution (passport offices), but with proper organization they can potentially replace even population censuses.

Strict adherence to the principles of maintaining registers allows for constant monitoring of the population and obtaining detailed data in chronological order. However, maintaining registers is associated with a number of difficulties: they are very cumbersome, which is at odds with modern requirements compactness; time-consuming to maintain (especially in terms of making changes) and development using a computer.

An automated data bank (ADB) is a system for collecting, developing and storing population data using a computer. DBA has significant advantages over registers. First, the computer has an unlimited amount of memory.

Secondly, it becomes possible to store information compactly on machine media (disks, floppy disks, etc.). Thirdly, duplication of information is eliminated. Fourth, it simplifies the process of finding data and making changes. Fifth, there are conditions for the combined development of information.

True, we should not forget that the DBA system is relatively expensive, requires the training of highly qualified personnel and forces us to solve very specific problems: ensuring the codification and protection of data from unauthorized users.

Anamnestic examination is a special source of information about the population, the essence of which is to interview people about events and facts that occurred in the distant past. In this case, the data is recorded from the words of the respondents based on memories (for example, a survey of women about all cases of birth and death of their own children).

When conducting anamnestic surveys, it is extremely important to take into account the age of the respondents, the time lag between the date of the past event and the date of the survey, as well as the representativeness of the sample.

The value of the anamnestic method lies in the possibility of obtaining data that cannot be gleaned from other sources. Moreover, conditions arise for a real restoration of the chronological sequence of historical events.

In general, all considered sources of statistical information about the population have their own advantages and disadvantages. In this regard, the quality of the demographic information base in any state of the world is determined by the extent to which individual sources of data are interconnected and mutually complement each other, compensating for their own weaknesses.

1.2. Statistics on the size and composition of the population

Statistics on the size and composition of human society is the most important section of population statistics. Its enormous scientific and practical significance comes down to the fact that without information about the quantitative size and structure of its own inhabitants, not a single civilized state on the globe can exist.

The population size, its distribution by men and women, children, able-bodied and pensioners, married and unmarried, townspeople and villagers, workers and peasants, employed and dependents, etc. necessarily underlie any prospective economic calculations and actually implemented measures aimed at developing and improving social production.

1.2.1. Number and location of the population

Population is a key and basic indicator of the demographic situation. On the one hand, the characterization of any state, as a rule, begins with an estimate of the number of inhabitants. On the other hand, population size serves as the basis for calculating many parameters of demographic statistics.

When carrying out various demographic and economic calculations, it is often necessary to operate with average values, since the use of momentary indicators becomes incorrect.

The average population is a conditional calculated value that reflects the size of human society over a period of time as a whole. To find it, the methods presented in Table 1 are used.

Table 1 Main Methods for Calculating the Average Population

–  –  –

In the formulas of Table. 1: S - average population; SH is the population at the beginning of the period; SK is the population at the end of the period; S1 is the first level of the population dynamics series; Sn is the last level of the population dynamics series; t is the time interval between each two adjacent levels in the series of population dynamics.

To characterize the distribution of the population by territory, statistics use: 1) physical density of inhabitants (population per 1 km2 of territory); 2) the proportion of residents living in a given territory in the total population.

A special characteristic of the distribution of the population over the territory is its distribution between the city and the village.

In international practice, there are several criteria for distinguishing cities and urban settlements:

- historical (focused on the historical assignment of the status of a city to a settlement);

- quantitative (focused on reaching a certain number of inhabitants);

- economic (focused on the predominant employment of residents in non-agricultural labor);

- legislative (focused on the legislative assignment of the status of a city to a settlement).

In our country, the unity of three criteria is applied: quantitative, economic and legislative.

The main indicators reflecting the distribution of residents between urban and rural areas are the number of urban and rural populations, the proportion of urban and rural populations, and the number of urban residents per 1,000 rural populations.

Currently, approximately 45% of the world's population and 75% of our country's population live in cities. The very process of growing the number of cities, the spread of urban lifestyle is called urbanization. Its consequences cannot be unequivocally assessed, since the greater comfort of the urban form of life is complemented by specific problems of our time (crowding and overcrowding of cities, violation of the ecological balance, etc.).

1.2.2. The main directions of the analysis of the composition of the population

The division of society into men and women constitutes the sex structure of the population. Its formation occurs under the influence of such factors as the ratio of boys and girls among those born, differences in the intensity of mortality of men and women, migration, wars, etc.

To quantify the sex composition of the population, a group of indicators is used: the number of men and women, the proportion of men and women in society, the number of men per 1000 women, etc. The degree of disproportionality in the sex structure of society is actually established on the basis of a meter scale. If the difference in the proportions of men and women in society, taken modulo (since the predominance can be either male or female), is up to 1%, then this is an insignificant degree, from 1 to 3% - an average degree of 3% or more - significant the degree of disproportionality in the sex composition of the population.

At present, on the globe as a whole, there is a relative balance of the sexes (men make up 50.1%, and women - 49.9% of all inhabitants of the planet).

Russia is dominated by women, accounting for 53% of the country's total population.

Under the age structure of the population refers to the distribution of people by age. For this purpose, statistics use one-year, five-year and ten-year age groups, and, if necessary, groups with unequal age intervals.

The classification of G. Sundberg is most often used in demographic analysis, which allows answering the question about the type of age structure of society.

It is based on the theoretical concept of distinguishing three generations of people in the composition of the population: children, parents and grandparents (Table 2). Depending on their ratio, both visual and calculated identification of the type of the age structure of the population is carried out.

Table 2 Types of age structure of the population

–  –  –

When difficulties arise with the visual determination of the type of age structure of society, they resort to proximity criteria. One of them is related to the establishment of the average standard deviation from classification reference values

G. Sundberg:

(Rf P s)2 SCKB =, where SCKB is the root mean square criterion for the proximity of age structures of the population; Rf is the actual age structure of the population; Рс is the reference age structure of the population according to G. Sundberg's classification.

The smaller the value of the criterion, the closer the actual age structure of society is to progressive, stationary or regressive types.

Based on the generations of residents identified in G. Sundberg's classification, demographic burden coefficients can be determined. The child load factor is found as the ratio of the number of generations of children and the number of generations of parents. The load factor of grandparents is defined as the ratio of the number of generations of grandparents and the number of generations of parents.

Both coefficients are calculated per 1000 people of the generation of parents. If you add them up, you get the total dependency ratio.

In statistical practice, such age groups of residents as 0-14, 15-59, 60 and older can also be used to find dependency ratios. In other words, the generations of parents and grandparents can be interpreted more widely in comparison with the classification of G. Sundberg.

In a similar way, the labor load coefficients of the population associated with the allocation of persons of pre-working age, persons of working age (men 16–59 years old, women 16–54 years old) and persons after working age can be determined.

A generalizing characteristic of the age structure of society is obtained using traditional indicators of the theory of statistics: the average, median and modal age of the inhabitants, each of which reflects the actual situation in one number.

A detailed visual representation of the age composition of the population is given by the age-sex pyramid. It is built in such a way that the number of inhabitants is plotted along the horizontal axis (women to the right, men to the left), and vertical axis- age (in five-year or ten-year intervals). At the same time, the number of each age group of men or women is depicted using a rectangle, the area of ​​​​which corresponds to it quantitatively (Figure 1). The age axis in the last interval on the pyramid is shown as a dotted line due to the unequal population distribution density. In general, the gender and age pyramid is the demographic face of society and keeps the stamp of history.

Sex and age pyramid of the population of Russia in 1994

–  –  –

60-70 50-60 40-50 30-40 20-30 10-20

–  –  –

The process of transformation of the age structure of society, associated with an increase in the proportion of elderly (old) people, is called the aging of the population. It is influenced by such factors as the dynamics of fertility and mortality, migration and wars. The degree of old age in a society is estimated on the basis of the aging coefficient, which is the proportion of persons aged 60 and over in the total population. For the qualitative characteristics of this indicator, a special scale by E. Rosset is used. In accordance with it, if the coefficient of old age is up to 8%, this is demographic youth, 8–10% is the threshold of old age, 10–12% is aging itself, and 12% or more is the demographic old age of society.

Particular attention in the composition of the elderly is paid to centenarians, i.e. people who are 80 years of age or older. Longevity depends on many factors, among which are heredity, environmental conditions, lifestyle, working conditions and nature, quality of medical care, etc. The level of longevity is reflected using the coefficient of the same name, which characterizes the proportion of centenarians in the number of people aged 60 years and older.

Under the social composition of the population is understood as its distribution into social groups. Their allocation in practice is closely linked with the size and role of a particular group of society in the socio-economic development of the country. In a broad sense social structure population is determined by the characteristics of historical evolution, the level of economic development and the demographic situation in the state.

To quantitatively characterize the social composition of the population, indicators such as the size of a particular social group of residents, as well as its share in society, are usually used. Additionally, indicators of coordination are calculated that reflect the ratio of the sizes of various social groups of the population to each other (for example, the number of workers per 1,000 peasants, etc.).

In our country, in the last population census (1989), five social groups of residents were distinguished: workers; employees; collective farmers; self-employed persons and clergymen.

Statistical study of the ethnic structure of the population involves consideration of a set of issues related to the characteristics of the racial, national, linguistic and religious composition of the members of society.

In international practice, there are four main races: Caucasoid, Mongoloid, Negroid and Austroloid. In addition to them, there are many mixed and transitional forms. At the present stage of development in the world, the Caucasoid race is predominant in terms of population (it accounts for approximately 40% of all inhabitants of the Earth). True, in recent decades, the Negroid race has been evolving most rapidly.

The vast majority of the states of the globe are multinational. A nation is a historical community of people connected by the unity of territory, language, culture and economic relations. When studying the dynamics of the national composition of society, special attention is paid to the processes of consolidation and assimilation. Consolidation is the merging of people close in language and culture ethnic communities. Assimilation is a mixture, interpenetration of separate nationalities.

The main indicators of the national structure of the population are: the number of peoples, nationalities living in a certain territory; the number of people of a given nationality, as well as their share in society.

The most important role in the development of human consciousness belongs to the language. The most widely spoken languages ​​in the world today are Chinese, English, Hindi, Spanish and Russian. Mother tongue and nationality do not always coincide. Population statistics determine the number of people speaking a particular language, explore multilingualism, and also evaluate the role of language as a means of interethnic communication.

The religious structure reflects the distribution of the population by religion.

In this aspect, the statistics cover only believers. Moreover, usually all religions are divided into three groups: primitive (fitishism, magic, etc.), local (Hinduism, Shintoism, etc.), global (Christianity, Islam, Buddhism).

At present, Christianity is considered the most widespread religion in the world (more than 1 billion believers). The very same statistical accounting of believers often faces two main problems - both with the unwillingness to register in general, and with the desire to exaggerate the significance of one's own religion.

The marital composition of the population is the distribution of people depending on marital status. The whole society is divided into married and unmarried persons. The first, in turn, consist of people who are in the first or second (second, third, etc.) marriage. The latter include those who have never been married (single and unmarried), divorced, widowed, and divorced (they differ from the divorced in that they have not legally terminated the marriage union).

Statistics pays special attention to the study of the family population, since it is this population that predominantly carries out the demographic reproduction of society. All families are classified by kinship into complete (with a married couple) and incomplete (mother or father with children); on a national basis into single-ethnic and ethnically mixed (the nationalities of the husband and wife do not match); on an economic basis into families without dependents and families with dependents.

The most important indicators of the family composition of the population are the number of families, the number and proportion of families in the total population, the distribution of the family population by family size, and the average family size.

The latest population censuses in our country have shown that there is a trend towards a reduction in the average size of a Russian family. If in 1970 it was 3.5 people, in 1979 - 3.3 people, then in 1989 - only 3.1 people.

The educational structure of the population refers to the distribution of society according to the level of education. Education is a set of special knowledge and practical skills acquired in the learning process. In our country, it is customary to single out such levels of education as secondary, secondary specialized and higher. Depending on the degree of actual completion, they can be complete or incomplete (for example, secondary primary, higher incomplete, etc.).

Analysis of the educational structure of the population in practice, as a rule, begins with a study of the literacy of citizens. It is estimated by the proportion of people who can read and write in any language at a certain age (for example, from 9 to 49 years). For more accurate statistical characteristics, indicators of the number of people with higher and secondary education are involved; the number of persons with higher and secondary education per 1000 inhabitants aged 10 and over;

the number of people with higher and secondary education per 1000 people employed in the national economy, etc.

In economic terms, the distribution of the inhabitants of the state by sectors of the economy is important. The sectoral structure of the population is the most important characteristic of the level of economic development of the country. For its study, indicators of the number and proportion of people employed in each of the branches of social production are attracted.

The totality of those employed in the national economy is also considered in the context of the areas of application of labor (material and non-material production) and the nature of labor (workers predominantly mental or predominantly manual labor). At the same time, especially in recent years, increased attention has been paid to the problem of unemployment.

In direct connection with sectoral employment, the professional structure of the population is considered, which represents the distribution of residents by profession.

A profession is a relatively stable type of labor activity that requires both theoretical knowledge and special labor skills. For dynamics professional structure residents are influenced by the following factors: historical features of the development of production, national traditions, scientific and technological revolution, structural shifts in the economy, etc.

A real idea of ​​the economic activity of society gives the distribution of the population by sources of livelihood.

Depending on the direction of receipt of income to the population, six main groups of residents are distinguished in the society:

1) employed population - persons who receive income from engaging in socially useful work, including pensioners in a permanent job;

2) employed in personal subsidiary plots;

3) scholarship holders - persons who receive a scholarship in the process of education, except for those who have a permanent job;

4) pensioners and other persons supported by the state;

5) dependents of individuals - children, the elderly without a pension, students without scholarships, housewives, etc.;

6) persons who have a different source of livelihood and have not indicated it (savings, renting out premises, etc.).

All of these categories are linked to each other when establishing the categories of the self-employed and economically active population. The self-employed population refers to people who have their own source of livelihood. These are the listed categories of residents, with the exception of dependents, who make up the non-active population. The economically active population includes people who have an independent source of livelihood. The economically passive population includes scholarship holders, pensioners and dependents.

To quantitatively characterize the economic structure of a society, the proportion of the self-employed and economically active population is calculated, as well as the burden of the non-independent population on the self-employed and economically passive population on the economically active.

Taken together, only consideration of the population in the context of all the features listed in section 1.2.2., allows you to get a complete and detailed idea of ​​the composition of human society.

1.3. Vital statistics

The size and composition of human society is constantly changing under the influence of birth and death rates, which in the narrow sense of the word constitute the natural movement of the population. Childbearing is the basis for the existence and development of civilization, and mortality corrects this process, leading to irreparable, but natural losses. In the broad sense of the word, the natural movement of the population, in addition to fertility and mortality, also includes marriage and divorce, which do not have a direct impact on the dynamics of the size and structure of the human population. In general, fertility, mortality, marriage and divorce take an active part in shaping the demographic situation, and therefore need a comprehensive statistical study, especially since they seriously affect many aspects of social life - the economy, politics, the social sphere, etc.

1.3.1. Statistical study of the birth rate of the population

Birth rate is a mass demographic process, covering the entire set of single births in a given territory for a certain period of time (usually a year). It is connected with the actual realization of fertility (the ability of the female body to reproduce life) in human society.

The birth rate is formed under the influence of many factors.

They can be divided into the following groups:

1) natural and biological factors - heredity, ecological situation, biological rhythms, etc.;

2) socio-economic factors - the standard of living of the population, the development of the healthcare system, the employment of women in social production, wars, etc.;

3) demographic (structural) factors - gender, marriage, territorial, age, nationality, etc. composition of the population.

Table 3 Main indicators of population birth rate statistics

–  –  –

The total and private number of births, while fixing the absolute scale of childbearing, do not say anything about the intensity of the birth rate and cannot be used in comparative statistical analysis. The total fertility rate, with its simplicity of calculation, as well as practical clarity, depends very much on the structure of the population (primarily sex and age) and therefore is a rather rough and approximate estimate. The private birth rate replicates the main advantages and disadvantages of the general birth rate. The special fertility rate is good because it eliminates the impact of the sex and partly age structures of society, as it is calculated in relation to the contingent of women who directly reduce the process of childbearing. However, it depends on the age structure of women of reproductive age. The age-specific fertility rate most accurately reflects the intensity of childbearing, because it eliminates the impact of both sex and age structures of the population.

To qualitatively characterize the level of the total fertility rate in population statistics, a special scale is used. If up to 16 children are born per thousand of the population per year, then this is a low level; from 16 to 25 children - the average level; from 25 to 30 children - the level is above average; 30 to 40 children – high level; from 40 children and more - a very high birth rate.

The main indicators of the birth rate of the population are interconnected:

1) the total fertility rate is equal to the arithmetic mean of partial birth rates weighted by the proportion of urban and rural residents in society: n= ni di ;

2) the total fertility rate is equal to the special fertility rate multiplied by the proportion of women of reproductive age in the total population: n=Fd15-49;

3) the special fertility rate is equal to the arithmetic mean of the age-specific fertility rates, weighted by the proportion of women in certain age groups in the total number of women of reproductive age: F= Fx Dx.

With the help of each of the relationships, an index factor analysis can be performed. For example, the first equality yields the following index system:

–  –  –

1.3.2. Statistical study of population mortality Death is a natural event associated with the termination of life, i.e. completion of the exchange of substances between the human body and the environment.

Mortality is a demographic process that includes the totality of deaths in a population over a certain period of time (usually a year).

The mortality rate is formed under the influence of many factors, which are divided into four major groups:

1. natural and biological factors - heredity, environmental conditions, etc .;

2. socio-economic factors - lifestyle, standard of living, nature and working conditions, development of the healthcare system, wars, etc.;

3. demographic (structural) factors - gender, age, marriage, territorial, etc. composition of the population;

4. factors contributing to mortality: smoking, alcohol, drugs, etc.

At the same time, endogenous and exogenous factors are distinguished in mortality statistics. Endogenous due internal development organism, its aging and decrease in viability (as a rule, this is mortality in older age groups). Exogenous factors are associated with the impact on people of the external environment (this mortality is typical for any age).

It is necessary to distinguish between such concepts as the factor of mortality and the cause of death.

A factor is something that contains the potential for death, and a cause of death is a specific circumstance that led to death (for example, a mortality factor is smoking, the cause of death is lung cancer).

Table 4 Main indicators of population mortality statistics

–  –  –

In the formulas of Table. 4: S – average annual population; S i – average annual number of men (women); M x is the number of deaths at a certain age; S x is the average annual population at a certain age.

The total and private numbers of the dead reflect the absolute scale of mortality, but say nothing about its intensity. The overall mortality rate, with all the simplicity of calculation and clarity, should be recognized as a rough estimate, due to the serious dependence on the structure of the population (primarily sex and age). The private mortality rate repeats all the advantages and disadvantages of the general coefficient.

The age-specific mortality rate acts as the most accurate indicator of the intensity of mortality. If it is calculated differentially by sex, then it eliminates the influence of the sex and age structures of the population.

A special scale is used to qualitatively characterize the level of the general mortality rate in population statistics. If up to 10 people die per thousand of the population per year, then this is a low level; from 10 to 15 people - the average level; from 15 to 25 people - high level; from 25 people or more - a very high mortality rate.

The main indicators of mortality of the population are interrelated:

1) the overall mortality rate is equal to the arithmetic mean of the partial mortality rates, weighted by the proportion of men and women in society m = mi di ;

2) the overall mortality rate is equal to the arithmetic mean of the age-specific mortality rates, weighted by the proportion of residents of certain age groups in the total population: m = mx dx (by analogy, the mortality rates of men and women can be calculated separately).

With the help of each of the relationships (identical to fertility), you can build your own system of factor indices in order to determine both the relative and absolute influence of individual components on the performance indicator.

Among the mortality indicators of the population, a group of specific parameters stands out, which characterize specific relevant aspects of the process under study. These include, first of all, the infant mortality rate.

Infant mortality refers to the death of children in the first year of life.

For its quantitative characteristics, the coefficient of the same name is calculated, which shows the number of children who died under the age of 1 year, per 1000 people born.

If we take into account that of all the children who died under the age of 1 year, in a given calendar year, some boys and girls were born in the previous year, then we can use the infant mortality rate calculated using the Rats method (it gives more accurate results):

–  –  –

where: m0 – infant mortality rate; M0 is the number of deaths under the age of 1 year; Nt is the number of births in a given calendar year; Nt-1 is the number of births in the previous year.

Death always comes at the wrong time, but for very specific reasons. In this regard, population statistics consider the main classes of causes of death ( infectious diseases, malignant neoplasms, diseases of the cardiovascular system, accidents, poisoning, injuries, etc.) and quantifies them. The mortality rate by cause of death reflects the number of deaths due to a particular disease per 100,000 people in the population.

Carrying out a comparative analysis of crude mortality rates in practice requires their standardization, since these parameters are highly dependent on the structure of the population (especially age).

Standardization is a conditional technique aimed at eliminating the influence of population structure on the level of the crude mortality rate. There are several versions of standardization: direct, indirect and reverse. The most widespread, due to its logical clarity, is direct standardization. Its essence is reduced to the use of the same unchanged (standard) age structure of the population. This makes it possible to exclude from consideration the role of the dynamics of the age composition of society when calculating various general mortality rates.

mst = mx dx0, p p where: mst is the general mortality rate standardized in a direct way; mx – age-specific mortality rates of the actual population; dx0 is the age structure of the standard population (in fractions of a unit).

As a standard population (standard), indicators characteristic of one of the compared groups of society or for the country as a whole can be used.

In order to study in detail the sequence of extinction of generations of people in population statistics, special probabilistic tables are built, which are called mortality (survival) tables. The mortality table is a system of interrelated indicators characterizing the distribution of the initial population of births by life expectancy. For the first time in modern understanding mortality tables were built by the English scientist D. Graunt in 1662.

All mortality tables in population statistics are divided into several types:

1) depending on the coverage of age groups of the population - full (built on one-year age groups) and short (built on five-year or ten-year age groups);

2) depending on the sex of the inhabitants - male, female, or for the population as a whole;

3) depending on the nature of the information - general (all mortality) and special (by cause of death).

The mortality table includes eight main indicators interconnected both horizontally (within the same age) and vertically (between adjacent ages).

1. Age - x. Considered in the range from 0 to 100 years. 0 is the initial age of the mortality table. 100 is the age limit of the mortality table, by which theoretically (and often practically) the entire initial population of births dies out.

2. Number of people surviving to age x – lx. It characterizes how many people from the initial population of those born live to each specific age.

It is a descending sequence of numbers. The initial number of births, or the root of the mortality table (l0), is assumed to be 10,000 or 100,000 people.

3. The number of deaths at the age of x years - dx. It characterizes how many people out of those who survived to the age of x years will not live to the age of x + 1 years. It is found according to the formula:

4. Probability of survival - Px. Characterizes the probability of surviving to the age of x + 1 years l for those who lived to the age of x years. It is found by the formula: Px = x +1.

5. Probability of death - qx. Characterizes the probability of death in the age interval d from x to x + 1 years. It is found by the formula: qx = x. The sum of the probability of survival and the probability of death should be equal to one, i.e. Px + qx = 1.

6. Number of people living at the age from x to x+1 years – Lx. It characterizes (conditionally, since it was obtained by calculation) how many people from the initial population of those born will live to the age of x years and fully live this year of life. It is found according to the formula:

–  –  –

When analyzing mortality tables, two main aspects are distinguished: demographic and economic. Demographic is associated with the identification of patterns of extinction of individual generations of human society. The economic one is focused on assessing the opportunities for the population to participate in social production, depending on life expectancy. Together, they allow us to draw deeper conclusions about the dynamics of the average life expectancy of the population and the consequences of its change.

1.3.3. Statistical study of marriage and divorce of the population

Marriage is a voluntary union between a man and a woman that regulates their relationship in living together. Marriage is a socio-demographic process that covers the entire set of marriages between people. All marriages can be divided into groups depending on the following features:

1) upon registration - actual and legal (documented);

2) according to the form of the marriage union - monogamous (one man and one woman) and polygamous;

3) in order - the first and repeated;

4) by demographic consequences - children and childless.

In many countries of the world, legal regulation of the age of marriage is carried out. In our country, it is set at the level of 18 years for men and women. However, this age limit may not coincide for the sex groups of the population. For example, in Ireland, marriage can be entered from the age of 14 for men and from 12 for women.

Table 5 The main indicators of statistics on the marriage rate of the population

–  –  –

In table. 5: S – average annual population; S15+ is the average annual population aged 15 years and over (marriage age); Bx is the number of marriages entered into by the population of a certain age group; S x is the average annual population of a certain age group.

The total and particular numbers of marriages, being absolute measures of the scale of marriage, do not say anything about its intensity. The total marriage rate very approximately reflects the level of this process, since it is calculated in relation to the entire population. However, according to the law, only people of marriageable age can enter into marriage, which is taken into account in a special marriage rate.

True, here, in accordance with international practice, not 18, but 15 years is taken as the lower limit of the marriageable age. The age marriage rate fixes the frequency (intensity) of marriages in a particular age group of residents.

In analytical calculations, you can use the relationship of indicators and find the total marriage rate as the product of a special marriage rate by the proportion of people of marriageable age in the total population.

To study the age parameters of marriage, it is possible to additionally determine the average, modal and median age of marriage, as well as the propensity of the population to early marriages (the proportion of marriages concluded under the age of 20) or late marriages (the proportion of marriages concluded at the age of 50 years and older ).

The marital conjuncture of society can be reflected using the marital situation coefficient, which shows the ratio of single men and unmarried women (or vice versa) at marriageable age.

There are two reasons for ending a marriage: widowhood and divorce. Divorce is an act of ending a marriage, which in a certain sense is a sign of a democratic society. Divorce is a process that covers the entire set of acts of termination of marriage between people. According to the legislation existing in our country, a divorce without children is recorded in the civil registry offices, and a divorce with children - only by a court decision.

–  –  –

The natural movement of the population is not the only factor determining the demographic situation in society. Its parameters can be significantly adjusted due to migration. As a result, the number and composition of the population of the state are undergoing changes that are not directly related to the dynamics of birth and death rates. Therefore, the statistical study of the migration movement of the population always occupies an important and independent place in the process of understanding the laws of the demographic development of society.

1.4.1. The concept, factors and classification of the migration movement of the population

In the scientific literature, there is a fairly wide range of points of view on the issue of determining the migration movement of the population. Taken together, this term (precisely migratory, and not mechanical movement) can be considered in the broad and narrow sense of the word. In a broad sense, migration is any territorial movement of people. In this case, many residents of the state can be considered migrants, since they are forced to move around the territory every day: to work, on business, on vacation, to relatives, etc. In a narrow sense, migration is understood as the movement of the population across the boundaries of administrative-territorial units with a change of place of permanent residence. In this case, there are two main criteria for the migration movement of residents, which are linked to each other: 1) crossing the borders of territories; 2) change of residence.

In practice, as a rule, preference is given to a narrow concept, because, on the one hand, it is simply unrealistic to record all the territorial movements of people, and on the other hand, it is imperative to be guided by very specific principles for recording migrants.

Persons participating in the migratory movement of the population are called migrants.

To study their composition, population statistics classify migration flows according to a number of criteria:

1) depending on the nature of border crossing - internal and external migration;

2) depending on time - permanent, temporary, seasonal and pendulum migration;

3) depending on the direction - migration from city to city, from village to village, from city to village, from village to city;

4) depending on the form of implementation - organized and spontaneous migration;

5) depending on the measures taken by the state - voluntary and forced migration;

6) depending on the nature of the causes of migration - political, economic and social migration.

Internal migration involves the movement of people within administrative-territorial units, i.e. without crossing their borders, which, of course, are overcome during external migration. Depending on the territorial level, internal and external migration is transformed into intracontinental and intercontinental, intrastate and interstate, intraregional and interregional, intraregional and interdistrict, etc.

Temporary migration differs from permanent migration in that people change their place of residence not forever, but for a time (usually for up to two years). Seasonal migration is associated with a change of residence for a very specific season of the year (for example, labor migration in agriculture). Pendulum migration involves the regular return of people to their permanent place of residence (for example, the migration of residents of the Moscow region to work in Moscow). Fundamentally, seasonal and pendulum migration are temporary, but they are separated into independent groups due to their specificity.

Organized migration is based on special measures of the state (for example, the development of new lands, etc.), while spontaneous migration is based on the population's own initiative. At the same time, the authorities may apply coercive measures to ensure the migration of people (deportation or reportation).

Change of permanent residence may be based on political, economic or social reasons (for example, opposition to political regime, dissatisfaction with the level of wages, changes in marital status, etc.).

Depending on the presence of migration in statistics, two types of population are distinguished:

open and closed. An open population is a population whose development is carried out both through the natural movement of residents and through migration (for example, the population of Moscow, the population of Russia, etc.). An example of a closed population can be considered the population of the globe, since there are no scientifically proven facts of the migration of intelligent life from planet to planet.

By and large, the migration movement in any state performs two main functions - redistribution (change in territorial proportions in the distribution of the population) and selection (formation of the size and composition of the population), which in real life are closely intertwined with each other.

Many factors influence the intensity of migration. The most important of them are: the socio-political situation, the development and location of production, the demographic situation, the urbanization of society, etc.

1.4.2. The main indicators of statistics on the migration movement of the population To quantitatively characterize the scale, structure and intensity of the migration movement of the population, statistics use a large group of indicators, which are divided into absolute and relative.

–  –  –

Among the absolute indicators of the migration movement of the population, the first two parameters are of the initial, basic nature. Firstly, it is the number of arrivals and departures that is to be determined in the course of the current accounting of migration. Secondly, the number of arrivals and departures is used in the process of calculating many other indicators of the migration movement of the population.

The turnover of migration can also be referred to as migratory mobility, gross migration or gross migration. This indicator, in fact, indicates how many people take part in the migration movement of society.

The net migration may also be referred to as net migration, net migration or net migration. It is calculated in the second way on the basis of subtraction from the total increase in natural population growth. In statistical practice, as well as in the scientific literature, the net migration occurs more often than other absolute indicators, because it reflects quite definite results of the migration movement of the population. If the balance of migration is greater than zero, we are dealing with a migration gain, if less than zero - with a migration loss, if it is zero - with a migration equilibrium.

All absolute indicators of the migratory movement of the population can be considered at a private level for individual groups residents: by sex, age, territory, marital status, nationalities, etc.

However, reflecting the absolute scale and results of migration, all the indicators presented in Table 7 say nothing about its intensity. For this purpose, relative characteristics are involved.

Table 8 Relative statistics of migratory movement of the population

–  –  –

Methodologically, the first four indicators presented in Table 8 make it possible to assess the intensity of migration arrivals, departures, turnover and population growth. The relative balance acts as a coordination parameter that makes it possible to compare two opposite directions of human migration. Efficiency indicates the extent to which the total migration turnover contributed to an increase (decrease) in the size of the human population in a particular area.

By analogy with absolute characteristics, relative migration rates can be calculated for certain groups of the population: men and women, urban and rural residents, by nationality, etc.

To characterize the survival rate of migrants (this problem has to be solved due to the fact that not all those who arrived in a given territory remain for permanent residence), the survival rate of new settlers is calculated. It is calculated as the ratio of the number of new settlers who remained for permanent residence to the number of those who arrived in a particular territory during the study period. If this coefficient is subtracted from unity, then the coefficient of mobility of new settlers will be obtained.

1.4.3. The balance method in the study of the migration movement of the population

The use of the balance method in the study of migration allows us to solve two main problems:

1) find out the role of individual territorial units, population groups, etc. in the migration movement of society;

2) link the migration movement itself with the dynamics of the total population.

In this case, the following balance system is most often used:

–  –  –

The above balance is based on the logical relationship of indicators: the population at the beginning of the period plus the total absolute increase, which consists of natural and mechanical growth, equals the population at the end of the period. This formula is used to find the results of private and total rows.

The balance equilibrium itself consists of the fact that the population at the end of the period, found on the final line, must coincide with the sum of the private populations at the end of the period, which are in the last column of the table.

For an in-depth analysis of the structure of the migration movement of the population, chess balances are used, in which the territories of departure and arrival of migrants are linked. An example of a chess balance can be a table reflecting the departure of Russian residents to countries near and far abroad. Moreover, if the territories of departure and arrival of migrants coincide with each other (migration exchange between regions or economic regions of Russia), the cells of the chess balance located on the main diagonal do not make economic sense and are clogged.

Thus, a statistical study of the migration movement of the population makes it possible to answer a number of questions that are of current importance both in terms of current economic management and long-term forecasting of the development of society.

1.5. Reproduction statistics and population projections The life of each individual person is limited in time. However, society continues to exist even according to the most conservative estimates for several millennia. This is directly related to the process of reproduction, since some people die, others are born, there are territorial movements of residents, and as a result, the population not only does not disappear, but leaves traces of its life everywhere. Therefore, a statistical study of the replacement of generations in human society, as well as the consequences of this process, is of great scientific and practical importance.

1.5.1. The concept, types and main indicators of population reproduction

Reproduction of the population is a continuous process of renewal of human society, i.e. constant replacement of old generations of people by new, younger generations. It is formed under the influence of factors such as fertility, mortality and migration. At the same time, the set of parameters that determine the course of replacement of generations is called the mode of population reproduction.

Depending on the final results of the process of renewal of generations, there are three types of demographic reproduction:

1) if the living population does not provide itself with a replacement and its number is reduced, then this is a narrowed reproduction;

2) if the living population provides for itself only an equal replacement and its number does not change, then this is simple reproduction;

3) if the living population provides compensation for the old generations and an increase in its numbers, then this is expanded reproduction.

–  –  –

Indicators of population dynamics are calculated according to the traditional formulas of the theory of statistics and reflect the general, superficial results of reproduction.

–  –  –

Absolute growth, growth rate and population growth rate can be calculated not only in comparison with the previous level of the time series (chain indicators), but also in comparison with any other level of the time series taken as a base (base indicators).

The main drawback of all indicators of population dynamics is that they do not reflect the actual process of replacement of generations in society. This task is solved using a group of indicators presented in Table 10.

–  –  –

Among the indicators of population replacement, the net production coefficient is of particular value. In its purest form, it reflects the process of the renewal of female generations (since it takes into account the mortality of girls as they reach reproductive age) and allows you to establish the type of reproduction of society. If the net current coefficient is less than one, this is a narrowed reproduction, if it is more than one

- extended reproduction, if equal to one - simple reproduction.

An important parameter of the process of reproduction of society is the length of a generation. It shows the length of the time interval between similar events in the lives of different generations: children and parents. As a rule, the birth of children is considered as such an event. Russian scientist Ya.S.

Ulitsky singled out the following methods for determining the length of a generation:

1) the average age of parents minus the average age of children;

2) the average age of the parents minus the age of the average (younger or older) child;

3) the age of the father minus the average age of the sons (son);

4) mother's age minus the average age of daughters (daughters).

Among the given indicators, the third characteristic is called the generation length along the male line, and the fourth characteristic is the generation length along the female line. In practice, the length of the female generation is much more often calculated, which can also be defined as the average age of mothers who gave birth to a girl in a given year.

With the help of generation length, another important indicator of population reproduction is found, namely, the true coefficient of natural increase. It is calculated as a ratio natural logarithm net reproduction rate of residents to the length of a generation in the female line. The true coefficient of natural population growth shows how the number of inhabitants would change if the birth rate, death rate and age and sex structure of society were unchanged.

1.5.2. Population projections

The relevance of population forecasting is determined by two main circumstances. On the one hand, population forecasts are an obligatory component of society development forecasts. On the other hand, population forecasts make it possible to link production and consumption, to foresee the possibility of forming labor resources.

In a broad sense, a population forecast is a prediction of its future state (a set of parameters) at a certain point in time. In the narrow sense of the word, the population forecast is usually reduced to the determination of the prospective number of inhabitants.

Population forecasting is based on a number of principles, which include: taking into account the characteristics of demographic development in the past, as well as the characteristics of the socio-economic situation; the use of a reliable information base of the forecast and scientific methods for its construction, etc.

In population statistics, a classification of population forecasts has been developed.

It is based on the following features:

1) depending on the object - population forecasts, composition forecasts, natural movement forecasts, population migration forecasts, etc.;

2) depending on the period - short-term forecasts (up to 5 years), medium-term forecasts (from 5 to 25 years), long-term forecasts (from 25 years and more);

3) depending on the method - forecasts based on mathematical functions, forecasts based on demographic models, forecasts based on the statistical characteristics of a series of dynamics, forecasts based on probabilistic shifting of ages.

Table 11 Main population projection models

–  –  –

To assess the accuracy of the demographic forecast, the absolute and relative deviations of the forecast and actual values ​​of the population are calculated. If several predictive values ​​were obtained, then such indicators of the theory of statistics as the average linear and standard deviations are used.

In conclusion, it should be noted that a statistical study of population reproduction makes it possible to predict the possible consequences of the demographic evolution of human society, and predictive calculations give them a specific quantitative assessment.

1.1. Subject, methods and information base of population statistics

–  –  –

2. The population of the city as of January 1, 1989 was 105 thousand people. During January, 2,000 babies were born: from January 1 to January 11.

people, from January 12 to January 31 - 3 thousand people; died: from January 1 to January 11 - 1 thousand people, from January 12 to January 31 - 2 thousand people; arrived: from January 1 to January 11 - 4 thousand people, from January 12 to January 31 - 5 thousand people; Decreased: from January 1 to January 11 - 2 thousand people, from January 12 to January 31 - 3 thousand people.

3. What is the fundamental difference between registers and an automated population data bank?

1.2. Statistics on the size and composition of the population

–  –  –

1. As of January 1, 1994, the population of the country was 52.5 million people; as of May 1, 1994 - 52.7 million people; as of August 1, 1994 - 52.8 million people; as of December 1, 1994 - 53.1 million people. Determine the average population for 1994.

2. As of January 1, 1994, the number of men was 69.5 million, and the number of women was 78.5 million. Make a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the degree of disproportionality in the gender structure of the country's population.

3. As of January 1, 1994, the population of the country was distributed by age groups as follows:

0-14 years old - 22.4 million people; 15–49 years old - 30.1 million people; 50 years and older - 7.7 million people Based on the mean square criterion of the proximity of structures, establish the type of the age structure of the country's population.

1.4. Statistics of the migration movement of the population

–  –  –

1. The population of the country at the beginning of the period was 28 million people, at the end of the period - 29 million people. The total birth rate of the population for the period is 25‰, and the total death rate is 10‰, respectively. Calculate the coefficient of migration growth of the population.

2. Fill in all the empty cells of the balance sheet of the migration movement of the population (thousand people) below.

–  –  –

3. Fill in all the empty cells of the chess balance of interregional migration exchange below, if it is known that the balance of migration in the second region as a whole amounted to 30 thousand people, and the migration turnover in the third region as a whole was 200 thousand people.

–  –  –

1.5. Reproduction statistics and population projections Training tasks Answer/Solution

1. Based on the following data, calculate:

2) average absolute growth, growth rate and growth rate of the population of the country for the period of time as a whole.

–  –  –

2. Based on the following data, calculate:

1) total fertility rate;

2) gross reproduction rate of the population;

3) net reproduction rate of the population.

Explain the results. (Accept the share of girls equal to 0.488).

–  –  –

Training tasks Answer/Solution

3. Based on the following data, use the age shift probabilities method to determine the number of 36-year-old men in 1999.

Age, years 30 31 32 33 34 35 Number of men in 2450 2350 2300 2180 2100 2000 1995, thousand people

Probability of surviving to the next age 0.995 0.992 0.990 0.985 0.980 0.972 ta, un.

1. Population statistics is the most important branch of socio-economic statistics, because it studies the patterns of demographic phenomena and processes that have the most serious impact on the process of production of material goods.

2. The population as an object of statistical study has two main features - it is the dynamism of development and the heterogeneity of the composition in many ways. Fertility, mortality and migration lead to the fact that the size and structure of the population are in continuous change.

3. The methodological base of population statistics includes a set of general scientific, statistical and specific research methods, which only in unity make it possible to identify the features of the demographic development of human society.

4. The information base of population statistics consists of six main data sources. These include censuses, sample surveys, current account, registers, automated data bank and population history surveys. Mutually complementing each other, they allow obtaining sufficiently complete and comprehensive information on the number and composition of the inhabitants, which is objectively necessary for the management of society.

5. The population is an absolute, momentary and basic indicator that reflects the quantitative boundaries of the human society living in a particular territory. For all kinds of statistical calculations, the average population is used, i.e. an abstract value that characterizes the number of inhabitants for a period of time as a whole. The method of its calculation depends on the nature of the initial information, as well as the objectives of the study.

6. The main directions of the statistical analysis of the structure of the population are its distribution by territory, sex, age, social groups, races, nationalities, language, religion, marital status, education, sectors of the economy, professions, sources of livelihood.

7. Under the natural movement of the population is understood the totality of natural demographic processes (birth, death, marriage, divorce), which have a direct and indirect impact on the change in the size and composition of the population, i.e. the most important parameters of not only the demographic, but also the socio-economic situation.

8. In addition to the birth rate, the demographic situation of society is formed under the influence of migration, i.e. process related to the territorial movements of people. It performs redistributive and selective functions in human society.

9. Taken together, the natural and migratory movements of society are manifested in a certain type of population reproduction. The continuous process of the renewal of human generations ensures the existence of civilization even in the conditions of the temporary limitation of the life of each individual.

10. The study of the reproduction process of human society objectively forces one to build demographic forecasts, because forecasting production, accumulation, consumption, etc. practically impossible without long-term calculations of the population size, which are of great cognitive importance.

3. Fill in all the free cells below 3.

staggered balance of interregional migration exchange, if it is known that the balance of migration in the second region as a whole amounted to 30 thousand people, and the turnover of migration in the third region as a whole was 200 thousand people.

–  –  –

Training tasks for section 1.5. Answer/Solution

1. Based on the following data, calculate: 1.

1) chain absolute growth, growth rate and population growth rate of the country;

2) average absolute growth, growth rate and rate 1) of the country's population growth over the period of time as a whole.

–  –  –

2. The subject of population statistics is ...

3. The methodological basis of population statistics consists of the following main elements ...

4. The main sections of the system of indicators of population statistics are ...

5. The moment of registration, the date and term of the census is ...

6. The census program consists of the following main parts ...

7. The programs for the current registration of births, deaths, marriages and divorces of the population include questions on ...

8. Population registers are...

9. The main advantages and disadvantages of anamnestic examinations of the population are ...

10. The main methods for calculating the average population include ...

11. There are the following criteria for the selection of cities and urban settlements ...

12. The type of age structure of the population can be determined ...

13. Dependency ratios are ... They characterize ...

14. The sex and age pyramid of the population is built as follows ...

15. To characterize the marriage and family composition of the population, the following main indicators are used ...

16. In our country, depending on the source of livelihood, the following main groups of the population are distinguished ...

17. To characterize the birth rate of the population, the following main indicators are used ...

18. There are the following main relationships between the birth rates of the population ...

19. Endogenous and exogenous factors of population mortality differ ...

20. To assess the level of mortality of the population, the following main indicators are used ...

21. The infant mortality rate according to the Rats method is calculated as follows ...

22. The mortality table includes the following main indicators ... They characterize ...

23. The main indicators of statistics on the marriage rate of the population are ...

24. The main indicators of the population's divorce statistics are ...

25. The classification of population migration is ... It is built on the following main features ...

26. For the statistical study of population migration, the following absolute and relative indicators are used ...

27. Gross and net reproduction rates of the population differ in that ...

28. To determine the length of a generation, there are the following methods ...

29. The probabilistic shift of ages is ... Its meaning is ...

30. The accuracy of a population forecast can be estimated by calculating ...

5. Questions for the exam

1. Subject, method and tasks of population statistics.

2. Methodological and information bases of population statistics.

3. Main sections and system of indicators of population statistics.

4. Censuses, current records, sample surveys, registers and other sources of population statistics.

5. Number and location of the population.

6. Methods for calculating the average population.

7. The concept, factors and indicators of the sex structure of the population.

8. The concept, factors and indicators of the age structure of the population.

9. Statistical study of population aging.

10. Construction of sex and age pyramids.

11. The concept, factors of the birth rate of the population and the tasks of statistics.

12. General and private fertility rates of the population. Scale for assessing the total fertility rate of the population.

13. Special and age-specific fertility rates of the population.

14. The concept, factors of mortality of the population and tasks of statistics.

15. General mortality rate of the population. Scale for assessing the total mortality rate of the population.

16. Private and age mortality rates of the population.

17. Standardization of population mortality rates.

18. The concept and main indicators of survival tables.

19. The concept and indicators of infant mortality.

20. The concept of marriage and divorce of the population. Tasks of statistics in their study.

21. System of indicators of population marriage statistics.

22. System of indicators of population divorce statistics.

23. The concept, factors and classification of population migration.

24. System of indicators of population migration statistics.

25. Concept, types of population reproduction and tasks of statistics.

26. Main indicators of population reproduction.

27. The concept, practical significance and classification of population forecasts.

28. Population forecasting based on statistical characteristics of dynamics.

29. Forecasting the population by the method of "advancement of ages".

30. The concept and indicators of the accuracy of demographic forecasts.

–  –  –

– a set of sources of data on the population (censuses, sample surveys, the Information Base of Statistics, current records, registers, DBA and anamnestic surveys).

Settlements Methodological - a set of general scientific, statistical and specific methods of research, the basis of population statistics.

–  –  –

8. The basis for maintaining current records of migration in our country is:

a) filling in statistical arrival (departure) coupons;

b) filling out special statistical forms in registry offices;

c) use of census data.

9. Automated population data bank is:

a) a specially organized system of individual cards for recording information about the population;

b) such a form of organization of observation, in which not the entire population, but a strictly defined part of it, is subject to registration;

c) a system for collecting, developing and storing data on the population using a computer.

10. The great advantage of anamnestic examination can be called:

a) the continuous nature of surveillance of the population;

b) the possibility of restoring the chronology of the past;

c) the obligatory nature of the registration of events of the natural and migratory movement of society.

1. In our country, for the allocation of urban settlements, the following is used:

a) historical criterion;

b) economic criterion;

c) unity of quantitative, economic and legislative criteria.

2. The physical density of the population is:

a) the number of population per 1 sq. km of the country's territory;

b) population per 1 sq. km of economically developed territory;

c) population per 1 sq. km of agricultural land.

3. If the proportion of men in society is 51%, then we are dealing with:

a) with an insignificant degree of gender disproportion;

b) with an average degree of gender disproportion;

c) with a significant degree of gender disproportion.

4. If the generation of parents in the population is 50%, and the generation of grandparents

- 30%, then it is inherent in:

a) progressive type of age structure;

b) stationary type of age structure;

c) regressive type of age structure.

5. Child dependency ratio is calculated:

a) as the ratio of the size of the generation of parents to the size of the generation of grandparents;

b) as the ratio of the number of generations of children to the number of generations of grandparents;

c) as the ratio of the number of generations of children to the number of generations of parents.

6. If the proportion of people aged 60 and over in the total population is 11%, then this is:

a) the demographic youth of society;

b) the threshold of the old age of society;

c) the actual aging of society.

7. Assimilation is:

a) the merging of ethnic communities close in language and culture;

b) mixing, interpenetration of individual nationalities;

c) separation from one nation of smaller ethnic groups.

8. According to the economic basis, families are divided into:

a) complete and incomplete;

b) single-ethnic and ethnically mixed;

c) with dependents and without dependents.

9. To characterize the literacy of the population, calculate:

a) the number of persons with higher and secondary education, per 1,000 inhabitants aged 10 and over;

c) the number of persons with higher and secondary education, per 1,000 people employed in the national economy.

10. Economically passive population includes:

a) fellows, pensioners and dependents;

b) employees, as well as persons who have another source of livelihood;

c) self-employed population.

1. The total fertility rate in its content characterizes:

a) the absolute scale of the process of childbearing;

b) the number of births per 1000 women of reproductive age;

c) the number of births per 1000 population.

2. If the total fertility rate is 20 children for every 1,000 of the population, then this is:

a) low birth rate;

b) the average birth rate;

c) high birth rate.

3. If the total fertility rate is 25‰, and the proportion of women of reproductive age in the total population is 25‰, then the special fertility rate is:

4. The group of natural biological factors of population mortality includes:

a) lifestyle;

b) the sex structure of the population;

c) heredity.

5. Partial mortality rate in its content characterizes:

a) the composition of the deceased by sex.

b) the number of deaths per 1000 people of the population;

c) the number of dead men per 1000 male population.

6. If the crude death rate is 20 for every 1,000 of the population, then it is:

a) low mortality rate;

b) average mortality rate;

c) high mortality rate;

7. Standardization is:

a) a method for qualitative assessment of the level of the general mortality rate of the population;

b) a method for eliminating the influence of a structural factor on the level of the general mortality rate of the population;

c) a method for studying the sequence of extinction of generations of people.

8. The number of people surviving to the age of x years characterizes:

a) the number of people living at the age of x to x + 1 years;

b) how many people from the initial population of those born will not live to a specific age x-years;

c) how many people from the initial population of those born will live to a specific age x-years.

9. According to the form of the marriage union, marriage can be:

a) legal;

b) monogamous;

c) repeated.

10. The special coefficient of divorce in its content characterizes:

a) the number of divorces per 1000 population;

b) the number of divorces per 1000 people of the population of marriageable age who are married;

c) characterizes the number of divorces registered at a certain age per 1000 people of the same age.

1. In the narrow sense of the word, migration means:

a) any territorial movement of people;

b) movement of people across the boundaries of territorial units;

c) movement of people across the boundaries of territorial units with a change of permanent residence.

2. Depending on the sign of time, migration happens:

a) voluntary;

b) spontaneous;

c) pendulum.

3. By type, the population is considered open if it contains:

a) birth rate, death rate and migration;

b) birth and death rates;

c) fertility, mortality, marriage and divorce.

4. The migration balance in its content characterizes:

a) the absolute scale of the arrival of migrants;

b) the absolute scale of the migration increase (loss) of the population;

c) the absolute scale of the migration turnover of the population.

5. If the balance of migration is less than zero, then we are dealing with:

a) with migration growth;

b) with migration balance;

c) with migration loss.

6. The effectiveness of migration in its content characterizes:

a) the number of arrivals per 1000 departures;

b) the share of migration growth (loss) in the migration turnover of the population;

c) the number of arrivals and departures per 1,000 people.

7. The coefficient of mobility of new settlers is calculated as:

a) the number of new settlers per 1,000 people of the population;

b) the number of new settlers who remained for permanent residence, per 1000 who arrived in this territory;

c) one minus the survival rate of new settlers.

8. When constructing the balance of migration movement, the population at the end of the period is as follows:

a) the population at the beginning of the period plus the total absolute growth of inhabitants;

b) population at the beginning of the period plus migration growth of residents;

c) population at the beginning of the period plus natural increase residents.

9. If the population at the beginning of the period is 200 thousand people, the number of births is 4 thousand people, the number of deaths is 2 thousand people, the number of arrivals is 6 thousand people, the number of departures is 3 thousand people. , then the population at the end of the period will be determined as:

a) 200+4–2+6–3 = 205;

b) 200–4+2–6+3 = 195;

c) 200+4+2+6+3 = 215.

10. If the population arrival rate is 50‰, and the population departure rate is 30‰, then the migration efficiency will be:

a) 50–30 = 20‰;

b) 50+30 = 80‰;

c) (50–30) / (50+30) 100 = 25%.

1. Reproduction mode is:

a) replacement of old generations of people by new generations;

b) a set of parameters that determine the course of replacement of generations of the population;

c) forecasting the reproduction of the population.

2. Expanded reproduction of the population involves:

a) reduction in the size of human society;

b) maintaining the size of human society at the same level;

c) an increase in the size of human society.

3. The group of indicators of population dynamics includes:

a) the average population growth rate;

b) coefficient of natural population growth;

c) generation length.

4. The total fertility rate in its content characterizes:

a) how many girls on average during the reproductive period each woman gives birth;

b) how many boys on average during the reproductive period each woman gives birth;

c) how many boys and girls during the reproductive period, on average, each woman gives birth, under the condition of a constant age-specific birth rate.

5. If the coefficient of natural increase is greater than zero, then we are dealing with:

a) with a natural population decline;

b) with natural population growth;

c) with the natural equilibrium of the population.

6. If the net population ratio is equal to one, then this indicates:

a) about the narrowed reproduction of the population;

b) simple reproduction of the population;

c) about the expanded reproduction of the population.

7. The length of the generation in its content characterizes:

a) the amount of natural population growth;

b) the size of the time interval between similar events in the life of different generations (children and parents);

c) the value of the total population growth.

8. If the population forecast is built for 10 years, then we are dealing with:

a) with a short-term forecast of the population;

b) with a medium-term forecast of the population;

c) with a long-term population forecast.

9. The population forecast model based on the exponential function is by its nature:

a) a statistical forecast model;

b) a probabilistic forecast model;

in) mathematical model forecast.

10. The model of a stable population is transformed into a model of a stationary population with a natural increase rate equal to:

a) unit;

c) the base of natural logarithms.

1. Demographic encyclopedic dictionary. - M.: Soviet Encyclopedia, 1985.

2. Course of demography. / Ed. AND I. Boyarsky./ - M.: Finance and statistics, 1985.

3. Population statistics with the basics of demography. / Kildishev G.S., Kozlova L.L., Ananyeva S.P. etc./ -M.: Finance and statistics, 1990.

Roda Manifesto, developed and written by Professor Alain Kaye following a series of lectures given in 2005 in Indonesia by leading representatives of non-orthodox schools ... "CULTURE Specialty: 08.00.05 - Economics and Management of the National Economy (Standardization and Product Quality Management) Thesis for the competition degree candidate of economics...»

"State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education "Moscow City University of Management of the Government of Moscow" Institute of Higher Professional Education Department of Urban Economics APPROVED by the Vice-Rector for Scientific..."

"CURRENT ISSUES OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES Therefore, in the format of the system approach methodology, the model of the marketing system of the agro-industrial complex can be represented as a processor that ensures the transformation of the possibilities of agricultural production and its products into foodstuffs that meet the needs of the consumer and both ... "

"METHODOLOGICAL INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE PERFORMANCE OF LABORATORY WORKS ON THE DISCIPLINE "FINANCE AND CREDIT" for students of the specialty 060800 "Economics and management at the enterprise (transport)" Omsk 2009 federal agency by education GOU VPO "Siberian State Automobile and Road Academy (SibADI)" Department of "Economics and Management in an Enterprise ..."

“Terms and Conditions of the Program of Russian Standard Bank JSC for Arranging Financial Risk Insurance “Fraud Protection”1. These Terms of the Program of Russian Standard Bank JSC for organizing financial risk insurance "Protection against fraud..."

"MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Federal State Autonomous Institution of Higher Professional Education Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University Institute of Management, Economics and Finance APPROVED ..." national economy Chelnokova O.Yu. Porezanova E.V. ECONOMY OF INDUSTRY MARKETS (TUTORIAL) Saratov-2016 UDC...»

«BULLETIN OF TOMSK STATE UNIVERSITY 2011 Economics №1(13) UDC 330.342.146 E.T. Ushakova, E.A. Frolova WELFARE STATE: THEORETICAL CONCEPT AND FEATURES OF ITS PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION The article presents the characteristics of the main theoretical concepts of the welfare state. Structural k...»

"Public administration. Electronic Bulletin Issue No. 28. September 2011 Leonov S.N., Sidorenko O.V. Selective regional policy as an independent type of regional policy of the state Issues of choosing priorities for regional development, tools ...»

"KIT Finance Investment Bank (OJSC) Non-consolidated financial statements in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards December 31, 2011 KIT Finance Investment Bank..."

Position- Professor

Degree- Doctor of Economic Sciences

Rank- Professor

Basic education

In 1983 he graduated from the Moscow Institute of Economics and Statistics (MESI), qualified as an economist with a degree in statistics. Postgraduate studies at MESI, in 1987 he defended his thesis on the topic "Methodology of statistical study of the structure, dynamics and use of sports facilities." Doctoral studies at MESI, in 1999 he defended his doctoral dissertation on the topic "Methodology of statistical research and forecasting of the development of physical culture and sports."

Scientific specialty: 08.00.12 - "Accounting, statistics"

total experience - 32 years, work experience in the specialty - 32 years

Training:

Advanced training course within the framework of the forum "Improving pedagogical skills and developing the professional competence of teaching staff in the light of the requirements of the Federal State Educational Standards", the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, the National System for the Development of Scientific, Creative and innovation activities youth of Russia, 2015, certificate NDRIX No. 004101;

Professional retraining in teaching economic disciplines (288 hours), Moscow University for the Humanities, 2014, diploma No. 772401675463 dated 06/20/2014;

Advanced training program "Applied Statistical Research and Business Analytics (using IBM SPSS Statistics)" (72 hours), MESI, 2014, certificate No. 060000033496;

Advanced training program "Transformation of the university into an online university" (72 hours), MESI, 2014, certificate No. 060000036119.

Advanced training program "Problems of development of small and medium-sized businesses", International Academy of Modern Knowledge (72 hours), Obninsk, 2011, certificate registration number U11125.

Readable disciplines: statistics, statistics in the service sector, socio-economic statistics, international statistics, market statistics, demography, demographic statistics.

Publications:

Over the years of scientific and pedagogical activity has publishedmore than 230 scientific papers, with a total volume of more than 300 printed sheets. including the author andHe is the author of 10 textbooks, 12 manuals and 14 monographs.

Web of Science, Agris:

1) Karmanov M.V., Smelov P.A., Egorova E.A. Demographic security – what is it? 2-nd International multidisciplinary scientific on social sciences, Book 1, Albena, Bulgaria, 2015.

2) Karmanov M.V., Bashina O.E. Global statistics: challenges, conditions, prospects. SGEM International multidisciplinary scientific conferences on social sciences and arts, Albena, Bulgaria, 2014.

3) Karmanov M.V., Matraeva L.V. Falsification as a challenge to the development of modern society. Economics and Entrepreneurship, No. 8-2, 2015.

1) Karmanov M.V. Demography. Under general edition Karmanova M.V. URAIT, 2016.

2) Karmanov M.V. Production management. Edited by Leotneva L.S. and Kuznetsova V.I. URAIT, 2015.

3) Karmanov M.V. Statistics for bachelors. Under the editorship of Minashkin V.G. URAIT, 2013.

4) Karmanov M.V. International statistics for masters. Under the editorship of Surinov A.E. and Bashkatova B.I., URAIT, 2013.

5) Karmanov M.V. Egorova E.A., Tsaregorodtsev Yu.N. Demography. Moscow State University, 2011.

6) Karmanov M.V. demographic statistics. Under the general supervision of Karmanov M.V. KNORUS, 2010.

7) Karmanov M.V. International statistics. Under the editorship of Surinov A.E. and Bashkatova B.I., URAIT, 2010.

Monographs:

1) Karmanov M.V., Zavrazhin A.V., Shubina I.V., Karmanov A.M. SMART: content and features of penetration into modern society. MESI, 2015.

2) Karmanov M.V., Bashina O.E., Zavrazhin A.V. Health tourism: features of management and applied analysis. MESI, 2014.

3) Karmanov M.V., Egorova E.A., Smelov P.A., Karmanov A.M., Epshtein N.D. Methodology for the analysis of demographic security and population migration. Finance and statistics, 2013.

4) Karmanov M.V., Bashina O.E., Tsaregorodtsev Yu.N., Shevtsov P.A. Demographic security and the intellectual potential of society. Moscow State University, 2013.

5) Karmanov M.V. Statistics and power in modern Russia. OOO NIPKTS Voskhod-A, 2012.

6) Karmanov M.V., Korotkov A.V., Smelov P.A., Ignatov I.V. Statistical support of marketing research. MESI, 2011.

Articles in journals from the VAK list:

1) Karmanov M.V. Russian statistics under international sanctions. Questions of statistics, 2015, No. 1.

2) Karmanov M.V. Features of the assessment of terrorism as a threat to the development of modern society. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2015, No. 1.

3) Karmanov M.V., Zavrazhin A.V. Terrorism: features, opportunities and research problems. Law and Education, 2015, No. 4.

4) Karmanov M.V., Makhova O.A. Statistics and religion in modern Russia. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2015, No. 3.

5) Karmanov M.V., Kuznetsov V.I. On the role of statistics in management. Corporate governance and innovative development of the economy of the North. Bulletin of the Research Center for Corporate Law, Management and Venture Capital, Syktyvkar State University, 2015, No. 1.

6) Karmanov M.V. Reflections on the image of Russian statistics. Questions of statistics, 2014, No. 6.

7) Karmanov M.V. Slyness about the "slyness" of numbers. Questions of statistics, 2014, No. 9.

8) Karmanov M.V., Zavrazhin A.V. Tolerance as an actual object of applied scientific research. Law and Education, 2014, No. 2.

9) Karmanov M.V. Sexual minorities: problems of evaluation and analysis. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2014, No. 2.

10) Karmanov M.V., Makhova O.A. Road Safety: Methodological Issues and Assessment. Bulletin of MADI, 2014, No. 1.

11) Karmanov M.V., Kuzin S.I. Hunger as an actual object of applied statistical research. Bulletin of the Russian University of Economics G.V. Plekhanov, 2014, No. 4(70).

12) Karmanov M.V. Statistics and opposition in modern Russia. Questions of statistics, 2013, No. 7.

13) Karmanov M.V. Statistics and corruption in modern Russia. Questions of statistics, 2013, No. 2.

14) Karmanov M.V., Zavrazhin A.V. Bioeconomics as an object of methodological analysis. Law and Education, 2013, No. 10.

15) Karmanov M.V., Zavrazhin A.V. The role of statistics in providing national security Russia. Law and Education, 2013, No. 5.

16) Karmanov M.V., Karmanov A.M. Statistics and management in modern Russia. Bulletin of the University (GUU), 2013, No. 17.

17) Karmanov M.V. Zolotareva O.A. Theoretical issues of naming evaluation. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2013, No. 4.

18) Karmanov M.V., Karmanov A.M. Modern problems of SMART research. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2013, No. 1.

19) Karmanov M.V., Kuznetsov V.I. Demographic challenges and modeling of personnel movement in business structures. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2013, No. 5.

20) Karmanov M.V. Statistics and media in modern Russia. Questions of statistics, 2012, No. 1.

21) Karmanov M.V. Statistics and electoral technologies in modern Russia. Questions of statistics, 2012, No. 3.

22) Karmanov M.V. Statistics and business in modern Russia. Questions of statistics, 2012, No. 11.

23) Karmanov M.V., Smelov P.A. Internet Censuses: Innovations, Opportunities and Challenges. Information Society, 2012, No. 3.

24) Karmanov M.V., Zavrazhin A.V. Statistics as a tool for achieving the optimal development of society: philosophy and practice. Law and education, 2012, No. 7.

25) Karmanov M.V. Smelov P.A. Theoretical approaches to the assessment of SMART. Innovations and investments, 2012, No. 5.

26) Karmanov M.V., Karmanov A.M. Smart as an object of statistical research. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2012, No. 1.

27) Karmanov M.V., Karmanov A.M. Smart appraisal theory. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2012, No. 6.

28) Karmanov M.V. Internet censuses as a vivid example of the practical application of SMART. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2012, No. 2.

29) Karmanov M.V. Statistics and politics in modern Russia. Questions of statistics, 2011, No. 4.

30) Karmanov M.V. Statistics and power in modern Russia. Questions of statistics, 2011, No. 2.

31) Karmanov M.V., Kuchmaeva O.V. Conceptual approaches to the study of socio-demographic groups of the population. Questions of statistics, 2011, No. 3.

32) Karmanov M.V., Korotkov A.V. Conceptual bases for the study of competitiveness and investment attractiveness of enterprises. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2011, No. 5.

33) Karmanov M.V., Smelov P.A. Demographic expansion as a way of redistribution modern world. Innovations and investments, 2011, №4.

34) Karmanov M.V., Smelov P.A. Demographic security as the most important factor in the socio-economic development of society. Innovations and investments, 2011, №1.

35) Karmanov M.V. Demographic conjuncture as an unfavorable factor of modernization and innovative development of Russia. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2011, No. 3.

36) Karmanov M.V., Korotkov A.V. Contemporary Issues financial support demographic security of Russia. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2011, No. 4.

37) Karmanov M.V., Manukhina S.Yu. Methodological issues of statistical research of employees' careers. Scientific notes of the Russian Academy of Entrepreneurship, 2010, No. 23.

38) Karmanov M.V., Smelov P.A. Demographic expansion as a threat to the innovative development of Russia. Innovations and investments, 2010, №4.

39) Karmanov M.V., Smelov P.A. Topical issues of statistical research of population health. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2010, No. 2.

40) Karmanov M.V. Demographic expansion as an object of statistical research. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2010, No. 4.

41) Karmanov M.V. Actual directions of development of modern demographic statistics. Economics, statistics and informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2010, No. 5.

Conference presentations:

1) All-Russian scientific and practical conference "Statistics and the challenges of our time", Rosstat, June 2015, plenary report "Problems of measuring the statistical literacy of the population."

2) International scientific and methodological conference " Higher education by new standards: reboot educational programs”, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, March 2015, plenary report “The Role of Statistics in Society and Problems of Improving Statistical Literacy”.

3) International scientific and practical conference "Statistics as a means of international communications", FINEC and Petrostat, January 2014, sectional report "Problems of interpretation in statistics".

4) International scientific and practical conference "Cooperation between official statistics and science", dedicated to the 95th anniversary of the journal "Questions of Statistics", February 2014, plenary report "Statistics and Management in Modern Russia".

5) International scientific and practical conference on the problems of modern socio-economic development, Budapest, Hungary, June 2014, scientific publication "Peculiarities of statistical research of missing persons".

6) International scientific and practical conference "Socio-economic problems of modern society", Prague, Czech Republic, June 2013, report "Illegal migration as a factor in the development of society."

Sphere of scientific interests: methodology of statistics, statistics and society, methodology of socio-economic statistics, statistics of physical culture and sports, demography, demographic security of society, demographic management.

Participated as a leader and co-executor in international and Russian scientific projects and grants:

Training program for the system of state statistics of the Russian Federation 1997-2005;

Improving the system of state statistics (IBRD, 2004-2005);

Government contracts: " Methodological foundations statistics public finance”, “Methodological bases for calculating output by the net type of economic activity “Construction” (Rosstat, 2011-2012); "Methodology for organizing and conducting Internet population censuses" (Rosstat, 2013-2014); "Development of measures for the integration of tourism education in the Republic of Crimea" (Rostourism, 2014); “Development of guidelines for accounting for values ​​and economic assets” (Rosstat, 2014);

- "Study of the impact of migration on the socio-economic situation" (RGNF, 2014);

- "Methodology for the study of the demographic security of society" (RGNF, 2015);

- "Development of a classifier of public procurement objects" (Government of the Moscow Region, 2015).

Under the personal guidance prepared: 2 Doctors of Economic Sciences and 21 Candidates of Economic Sciences.

Participation in professional organizations: member of the International Statistical Institute (ISI), member of the editorial board of the journals "Questions of Statistics", "Economics, Statistics and Informatics. Bulletin of UMO.

Awards: Medal and badge for conducting the 2002 Population Census; badge for conducting the 2010 census; badge "Excellence in statistics", a letter of thanks and a diploma from Rosstat; Gratitude of the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation; Badge "Honorary Worker of Higher Professional Education".

Knowledge of foreign languages: German.

“Under the general guidance of Prof. Karmanova M.V. DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION OF THE SOCIETY AS THE MOST IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND MARKETING RESEARCH Interdepartmental monograph...»

-- [ Page 1 ] --

MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY

ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND INFORMATION

Department of socio-economic statistics

Department of General and Strategic Management

Department of Economic Theory and Investment

Under the general guidance of prof. Karmanova M.V.

DEMOGRAPHIC CONDITION OF THE SOCIETY

AS AN ESSENTIAL ELEMENT OF APPLIED

ECONOMIC AND MARKETING

RESEARCH

Interdepartmental monograph Moscow, 2010 UDC 314.1, 314.06 Demographic conjuncture of society as an essential element of applied economic and marketing research. Under the general guidance of prof. Karmanova M.V. Interdepartmental monograph. – M.:

MESI, 2010 - 99 p.

Reviewers:

Doctor of Economics, prof. Romanov A.A.; Candidate of Economics, Assoc. Brusnikina S.N.

Foreword, afterword, main literary sources - written by Doctor of Economics, prof. Karmanov M.V.

Chapter 1 - written jointly by Dr. of Economics, Prof. Karmanov M.V., Ph.D., Assoc.

Smelov P.A., and Ignatov I.V.

Chapter 2 - written by d.e.s., prof. Kuznetsov V.I.

Chapter 3 - written by d.e.s., prof. Korotkov A.V.

The monograph is devoted to topical issues of applied analysis of the demographic conjuncture of society. It considers the main aspects of the demographic conjuncture as an object scientific knowledge, as well as its role in the formation of the socio-economic situation, the study of the characteristics of employment and the structure of consumers. The work is intended for students, graduate students, teachers, employees of government bodies at various levels dealing with the problems of characterizing the demographic conjuncture of society.

© Karmanov M.V., ISBN 978-5-7764-0613- © Korotkov A.V., © Kuznetsov V.I., © Smelov P.A., © Ignatov I.V., © MESI, ~2~ Contents Preface Chapter 1. Features and main directions of the study of the demographic conjuncture of society _ Chapter 2. Management of the processes of employment of the population (economic and socio-demographic aspects) _ Chapter 3. Segmentation of consumers according to socio-economic and demographic characteristics Afterword _ Main literary sources _ ~ 3 ~ Foreword The natural and migration movement of the population in all historical times has had a noticeable impact on the political and socio-economic development of both individual states and entire regions of the globe. In recent decades, in many countries of the world, there has been a clearly expressed trend towards an increase in the role of the demographic factor and an increase in the degree of its influence on the most diverse, and sometimes simply new, as yet unexplored spheres of public life. At the same time, the transformation of the demographic conjuncture increasingly began to negatively affect the proportions of production and consumption, and restrain the rate of economic growth. In this regard, there is an objective need to improve and develop directions, approaches, methods and techniques for taking into account changes in the demographic conjuncture of society, especially in the process of conducting applied economic and marketing research.

Chapter 1. Features and main directions of the study of the demographic conjuncture Throughout the history of mankind, the demographic conjuncture has played an exceptional role in determining the priority directions of the policy pursued and making the right managerial decisions. Starting from the primitive system, the elders of the most ancient tribes paid the most serious attention to such important demographic parameters as the total number of relatives, its change over time, distribution into men and women, children, adults and the elderly, etc. Without such information, it was difficult to take justified and only correct actions related to the attack on representatives of other tribes (or protection from them), the creation of any supplies (food, clothing, other basic livelihoods, etc.), as well as the choice or change of place of parking (residence). Somewhat later, when some tribes were able to subjugate other tribes, information about the current demographic situation (mainly about the number of conquered or subjects) was of great importance for establishing the amount of tribute, fees, and taxes. It is also known from the history of terrestrial civilization that the number of inhabitants and the intensity of natural movement (mainly birth rate) of not only nomadic, but also settled tribes often forced the latter to search for new lands (areas of existence), to conduct predatory military operations.

Many great scientists and public figures repeatedly expressed their opinion about the importance of the demographic conjuncture of society. So, John Graunt in his work “Natural and political observations based on bulletins of mortality”, published in London in 1662, wrote: “The art of government and true politics is how to keep subjects in peace and abundance ... The basis ... of a harmless policy is to know the land and the workers of its inhabitants, who must be managed in accordance with their inner abilities and the differences between them ... ". M.V. Lomonosov in a letter to Count I.I.

Shuvalov “On the reproduction and preservation of the Russian people” in 1761 noted that: “I consider the beginning of this to be the most important thing: the preservation and reproduction of the Russian people, which is the majesty, power and wealth of the entire state, and not in the vain vastness without inhabitants ... " . Sebastien de Vauban (1633-1707), Marshal of France, in his book The Royal Tithe Project, substantiated the position that "the greatness of kings directly depends on the number of their subjects, which constitute the strength, wealth and well-being of any country."

At present, the role of the demographic conjuncture in shaping the foreign and domestic policies of modern states has not only not diminished, but has become even more relevant.

Objectively, this is due to two main reasons. First, the earth space object and the territory inhabited by mankind has definite and finite limits. Therefore, the constantly growing terrestrial population, which has reached 7 billion people, is increasingly faced with the problems of limited and exhausted land and various (including non-renewable) resources. Secondly, the demographic situation in most countries of the world has become a serious factor in the formation of the socio-economic situation, which has an ever-increasing and increasingly negative impact on all, without exception, fundamentally important areas of public life.

For example, such global demographic trends as the rapid increase in the number of inhabitants of the earth; virtually uncontrollable population growth in developing countries leading to hunger, rising unemployment and uncontrolled illegal migration; noticeable aging of the population of the economically developed countries of the world, creating serious problems in the labor market and forcing to resort to the services of external labor migration; high overall and infant mortality in the developing countries of the world, leading to low life expectancy and the effectiveness of generational replacement; uneven demographic development individual regions The lands, which are reflected in the proportions of the territorial distribution of labor resources and the provision of production with a labor force, etc., have for more than a decade objectively forced us to seriously think about the fate and prospects for the development of our civilization.

No less difficult is the demographic situation that has developed in modern Russia (continuous depopulation for more than a decade and a half; disproportionate gender structure of residents; a very high level of demographic old age in society; low birth rate and high mortality of the population; narrowed replacement of generations and low, by the standards of economically developed countries, average life expectancy people's lives, etc.) seriously affects the nature and pace of the country's socio-economic development.

Under these conditions, the demographic conjuncture, of course, is turning faster and faster into an extremely important and topical object of scientific knowledge, which is of exceptional practical importance in various aspects. Among them stand out:

the role of the population as a natural base for the formation of labor resources, the contingent of those employed in the economy, which are the main potential and actual producer of material goods and services;

the role of the population as a mass consumer of material goods and services, whose characteristics (number, composition, density, movement, etc.) predetermine all the main and key parameters (capacity, structure, etc.) of the market for food and non-food products, In general, such a noticeable and significant role of the demographic conjuncture in shaping the appearance and content of the fundamental social phenomena associated with the processes of production and consumption, obviously turns it into a necessary and obligatory element of applied economic and marketing research.

means:

1. the current situation, the current situation, the temporary situation in any area of ​​public life;

specific conditions of the reproduction process for each In this regard, depending on the scope of application, in practice there are a variety of types of conjuncture: political conjuncture, economic conjuncture, social conjuncture, financial conjuncture, food conjuncture, etc. etc.

It is quite obvious that a similar approach can be applied to the population, which will be characterized by a demographic situation.

The legitimacy of using such a term, in our opinion, is justified by the fact that the situation, situation, situation that has developed or created in the area of ​​​​the population and reflecting the conditions for its reproduction as of a certain point in time just characterize the demographic conjuncture of society, which is subject to constant changes under the influence of various factors. The opportunistic state of affairs in the sphere of the population is essentially predetermined by the fact that its most important parameters, namely the number, structure, distribution, reproduction, etc., are constantly being transformed under the influence of such demographic processes as fertility, mortality, marriage, divorce and migration, which, in turn, depend on a variety of diverse, diverse and multidirectional factors.

Thus, the demographic situation as a category is a set of quantitative indicators that characterize the state of the population and the processes taking place in it at a certain point in time. In its content, it is close to such well-known concepts as the demographic situation, the demographic situation, but differs from them in that it focuses more on the systematic variability of the population, which affects all areas of life of modern society without exception.

Big encyclopedic dictionary. 2nd edition, supplemented and revised. M.: Great Russian Encyclopedia, 1998, p.569.

In order to classify the types of demographic conjuncture, from our point of view, it is advisable to use the following features:

1. Depending on the level of consideration:

2. Depending on the relationship to the considered administrative-territorial unit (country, region, 3. Depending on the nature:

4. Depending on the direction of the ongoing changes:

changing in a favorable direction;

changing in an unfavorable direction.

The level of consideration is a traditional and well-established direction of applied research. Due to the fact that the results of the interaction of processes occurring in the population can be considered both at the level of the globe as a whole, continents, countries, regions, and smaller geographical or administrative-territorial units, the demographic conjuncture, accordingly, requires reference to a specific territory. on which it is fixed.

It is quite natural that in relation to any territory under consideration, both internal and external factors can act, which lead to changes in the current situation. Therefore, the demographic situation can also be external and internal in nature, which can mutually influence each other.

The internal demographic situation develops within a specific territory, which, being an integral part of a larger geographical or administrative unit, takes part in the formation of a consolidated demographic situation. On the other hand, the demographic situation that has developed in adjacent (or even remote) territories can seriously change the situation with the population in a given country or its individual regions.

By its nature, the formed demographic conjuncture can be both prosperous and unfavorable, depending on the results of the impact on the socio-economic development of the country, region, region, etc. Moreover, the degree of this well-being or disadvantage can manifest itself in different ways in certain areas of public life. For example, demographic proportions favorable for the economy may be less favorable or completely unfavorable in terms of the development of the social sphere and vice versa. Therefore, the nature of the demographic situation is most often distinguished by its multidimensionality and the complexity of taking into account in the implementation of any management decisions aimed at increasing the efficiency of social reproduction.

conjuncture objectively have to talk about the direction of its transformation. Naturally, from the standpoint of a specific social situation, it can evolve in a positive (favorable) or negative (unfavorable) direction. It all depends on what social, economic, political, environmental, etc.

the consequences are changes in the most important parameters of the population. At the same time, it should also be understood that the same shifts in the demographic conjuncture manifest themselves differently in various sectors and spheres of state life.

If we talk about the constituent elements of the demographic conjuncture of society, then, in our opinion, they have been formed historically and are most often considered in the following main aspects:

dynamics of the total population, as well as its most important components (urban and rural residents, men and women, children, youth, people of working age, pensioners, etc.);

structural shifts in gender, age, marriage, ethnicity, etc. population structures;

change in the levels, structure and intensity of the birth rate, mortality, marriage, divorce and natural change in the levels, structure and intensity of arrival, departure and migration growth of the population;

transformation of parameters, regime and type of substitution The demographic conjuncture of society is changing under the influence of many factors. Among them, components of two kinds can be distinguished. First of all, direct factors, that is, the demographic processes themselves, which form the "look" of the population, its parameters and directly determine the situation in the field of population. These include: fertility, mortality, marriage, divorce and migration (arrival and departure) of the population. On the other hand, one should not ignore indirect factors which, by influencing the processes of natural and migratory movement, the reproduction of society, through them indirectly affect the transformation of the demographic situation. Among them are usually distinguished: natural biological (heredity, ecology, biorhythms, etc.); socio-economic (standard of living, employment and unemployment of the population, urbanization, development of the healthcare system, wars, crime, social tension, etc.);

structural and demographic (sex and age, marriage and family, ethnic composition of the population, etc.); geopolitical (international situation, military tension, etc.) factors. In relation to the mortality of residents, endogenous (internal) and exogenous (external) factors are often distinguished, as well as factors that contribute to death (alcohol, smoking, drugs, overeating, physical inactivity, etc.).

The main sources of data on the demographic situation in society are censuses, current records, registers and sample surveys of the population.

The census is the main (and in some states even the only) source of information about the population. Its great advantage lies in the fact that the survey program covers various characteristics of the population, the combination of which makes it possible to comprehensively display not only the demographic, but also the socio-economic structure of the inhabitants of the state as a whole or its individual subjects.

The population census provides statistical data that characterizes each inhabitant of a country or territory at a certain point in time. Those who died before or were born after that moment are not included in the census population.

They are held, as a rule, once every ten years. However, it is also necessary to have up-to-date population data between censuses. For these purposes, a current record of demographic events has been organized - births, deaths, marriages, divorces, changes of residence. It is based on documentary registration by state bodies (registry offices, FMS) of the events listed above. To the population obtained on the basis of the results of the last census, those born and those who arrived in the territory are added annually, and the deaths and those who left the territory are subtracted.

The source of population data can also be population registers and departmental administrative databases that combine the features of both of the above sources, as well as lists (card files) of the population. The population register is a regularly updated list of the inhabitants of the country, containing a set of legally established personal characteristics and serving the purposes government controlled. The peculiarity of this type of population registration is the storage and regular updating of individual data with the help of a unique identification number assigned to each resident. The experience of European countries that maintain a population register shows that information in the national (central) population register is updated through interaction with specialized registers containing information about the population, for example, registers of real estate, taxpayers, state social insurance, etc.

An additional, but extremely important source of data on the population and demographic processes are sample surveys of the population. Such survey programs tend to be more detailed than population census programs.

Surveys based on sampling have received wide use in the statistical practice of different countries of the world.

It is difficult to obtain a comprehensive statistical description of the demographic conjuncture of society on the basis of one or more private indicators that reflect certain aspects of the object of study. To achieve this goal, a system of indicators is needed, in which, in our opinion, it is advisable to single out the following main sections:

1. Indicators of the state and directions of transformation of the demographic conjuncture of society:

population size and its dynamics (compared to comparison with other countries, regions, etc.);

place in terms of population in the world, the share of inhabitants living in a certain territory in the total population of the world, region, etc., its change over time and in comparison with other states or administrative territorial population physical density, its dynamics ;

distribution of the population between urban and rural areas, its structural shifts in the composition of the population by sex, age, marital status, nationality, indicators of demographic transformation factors, the number of births, deaths, marriages and divorces, its change over time in general, private, age, special and etc. fertility, mortality, marriage and divorce rates of the population;

level and dynamics of the rate of natural increase dynamics of infant and child rates the number of arrivals and departures, the balance of migration, their change over time in general, private, age-specific arrival, departure and migration rates population;

life expectancy of the population;

dynamics of the population of working age and other socially significant contingents (children, conscripts, pensioners, etc.);

dynamics of economy of population reproduction;

shifts in the labor structure of the population;

change in the levels of demographic and coefficients The logic of constructing the above system of indicators boils down to the fact that the characteristics of its first section are designed to reflect the actual demographic situation. The indicators of the second section accumulate parameters that characterize the factors of transformation of the demographic conjuncture of society due to the natural and migratory movement of the population. The third section covers indicators focused on a generalized assessment of the replacement of generations and the results of the interaction of demographic processes leading to changes in the demographic situation in a certain territory.

The population size is the most important characteristic of the demographic conjuncture of a society, because it is a quantitative assessment of the totality of people living in a given territory. In statistical practice, a distinction is made between the permanent population, which is made up of persons permanently residing in a given territory, including those temporarily absent at the time of the population census, and the actual population, as the totality of persons who were at the time of the population census in a given territory, including temporary residents. In addition, there is the concept of a legal population registered in a particular territory. In general terms, the population reflects the capacity of the market in a variety of forms of its manifestation (labor market, consumer market, etc.). At the same time, the number of permanent, current and legal population becomes more or less important depending on the scope of application. So the actual population is more interesting in such areas as transport, trade, catering, hiring, etc., that is, where, in order to organize certain processes or carry out management, it is required to know the total number of inhabitants located in a given territory, regardless whether they live there permanently or temporarily, or whether they are registered (registered, assigned) there or not. The permanent population is of increased interest in the development of such areas as education, health care, housing construction (especially its social part), which are more focused on the permanent or legal population. Moreover, the latter is of legitimate interest from the standpoint of the bodies of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Federal Migration Service, the Federal Security Service, the tax inspectorate, etc.

The population also has a pronounced international and socio-political connotation, especially in terms of its weight, dynamics, place in the world or in a particular region of the globe. A larger number of inhabitants is a certain argument in solving some geopolitical issues, and the place actually achieved by the country (as well as its change) in terms of population often fixes its role not only in demographic, but also in political, economic, etc. maps of the globe. Growth or reduction in the number or proportion of the inhabitants of a particular state can be viewed from the standpoint of success or failure in the socio-economic development of society. However, the decline in the number of inhabitants (if it was not predetermined by purposeful demographic policy measures) most often indicates serious problems in social reproduction. Therefore, calculations of the total population are usually made for the country as a whole and its individual administrative-territorial units, urban and rural settlements.

An analysis of the demographic situation, as a rule, begins with a description of the population of the globe, its regions and individual countries. The number of inhabitants is a momentary indicator reflecting the size of a society as of a certain date (usually the beginning or end of the year). To achieve data comparability, demographic statistics usually use the average population when making comparisons. This is an abstract, calculated value that reflects the number of inhabitants for a period of time as a whole (for example, for a year). Most often, it is calculated using the simple arithmetic average formula (for example, as half the sum of the population at the beginning and end of the year).

True, if necessary and if information is available, for more accurate calculations of the average population, the chronological average (for time series with equal and unequal time intervals), average logarithmic and other more complex formulas for determining average values ​​are also used.

The population, being an absolute indicator, does not allow us to judge what part of the inhabitants of the Earth is in a particular region, in a particular country of the world. For this purpose, the proportion of the population living in a certain territory is involved. Currently, the most populated region of the world is Asia, where approximately 60% of the inhabitants of our planet are concentrated. Accordingly, among the states, the largest population (about 20%) lives in China.

Almost 2% of the population of our planet is concentrated in Russia with its vast territory. Moreover, the share of Russians in the world community has been steadily declining over the past decades.

An additional idea of ​​the degree of population of specific areas allows you to get the physical density of the population, which is calculated as the ratio of the total population to the area of ​​the territory (in square kilometers). It provides an opportunity to judge how many people fall on one square kilometer territory, and, accordingly, to build considerations on the density of population of individual regions and countries of the globe. Reliable information of this kind is of great importance in addressing the development, location and density of transport and trade networks, as well as networks of other social facilities focused on the nature of the settlement of residents - potential consumers of their services.

In order to obtain a more detailed idea of ​​the nature of the settlement of inhabitants, such indicators as the number of urban and rural population, as well as the share of urban and rural residents in the total population, are used in management and planning. In international practice, the urban population includes people living in urban settlements, and the rural population - people living in rural areas. For example, urban settlements in Russia are considered to be settlements approved by legislative acts as cities and urban-type settlements.

All other settlements are considered rural. In other countries, criteria such as the number of inhabitants, non-agricultural employment, infrastructure features, development patterns, etc. are used to determine the type of settlement. In France, the following quantitative criterion is used - a settlement is considered urban if the number of its inhabitants exceeds 2 thousand people. Currently, approximately 73% of Russians live in urban areas.

According to this indicator, our country was very close to the group of economically developed countries of the world (for example, in the USA, more than 80% of the total population is concentrated in urban areas, and in Sweden, almost 90% of the total population).

The density and accessibility of the vast majority of social networks (transport, trade, education, healthcare, etc.), as well as employment opportunities in cities are noticeably higher and wider than in rural areas, not to mention the living conditions themselves (heating, water supply, sewerage, etc.), which are usually an order of magnitude better in urban areas. In this regard, the characteristics of the distribution of residents between urban and rural areas are often used as indicators of the level of socio-economic development of a society.

In studies of the demographic conjuncture of society, an important place belongs to the characteristics of the sex structure of the population.

The peculiarities of the distribution of residents into men and women are of exceptional importance in the analysis of the parameters of the labor market, employment and unemployment, and the specifics of the consumer market. It is quite obvious that men and women are naturally endowed with physical strength in different ways, have a peculiar make-up of character, nervous system, etc. In this regard, they occupy mismatched segments in the labor market. There are such production functions and tasks that are better performed by women, and there are those where the situation is reversed.

For example, historically in our country, men dominate in such areas and sectors of public activity as military service, coal mining, oil, gas, heavy metallurgy, etc., while women dominate in education, healthcare, and culture. Therefore, in the course of personnel selection, almost always, to one degree or another, gender specifics workers. Also, one should not forget that women are potential mothers, which in the long term can tear them away from their work duties for a certain time (this circumstance, of course, never falls out of sight of employers and affects the employment opportunities of the sex groups of the population). Separately, it should be noted that men and women differ as consumers of goods and services, gravitating to one or another segment of the consumer market to a greater or lesser extent (for example, cosmetics and perfumery are more the lot of the fair sex, and tools and construction technical devices are the lot of representatives of the stronger sex).

To quantify the sex structure of the population, such basic indicators as the number of men and women, the proportion of men and women in society, as well as the number of men per 1,000 women (or vice versa) are used. It is noteworthy that in the economically developed countries of the world women predominate more often, and in developing countries - men.

At present, the Russian Federation is noticeably distinguished by the predominance of women (they make up 53% of the country's population), which is associated with the consequences of the Second World War, as well as a higher average life expectancy for women compared to men.

To measure the depth of the disproportion in the gender composition of society, it is advisable to calculate the following indicator:

where d is the degree of disproportionality in the gender structure of the population (the value of the indicator is determined by the module due to the fact that both men and women can predominate in society);

dm is the proportion of men in the total population;

dj is the proportion of women in the total population.

If in the territory under consideration the above indicator is in the range of up to 1%, then we are dealing with a weak disproportion of the sexes, if 1-3%, then with an average disproportion of the sexes, and if 3% or more, then with a strong disproportion of the sexes (as, for example, in Russia - 6%).

In the study of the demographic conjuncture of society, the closest attention is almost always paid to a comprehensive description of the age composition of the population, since the age distribution of residents is closely related to issues and problems of coming of age (inheritance, suffrage, marriage, etc.), the labor market, the formation of the army, the characteristics consumption and a number of other vital socio-economic issues. First of all, from an economic point of view, the legislation of any country establishes the boundaries of the working (working period), during which all citizens have the right to take part in social production. For example, in Argentina, Benin, Bolivia, Brazil and Pakistan, the lower working age limit is 10; in Greece and Italy - 14 years; in Austria, Canada, China, France and Japan - 15 years; in the UK, USA, Russia and Sweden - 16 years; in Poland - 18 years. The upper limit of the working age (retirement age limit) in Russia is 55 years for women and years for men; in France - 60 years for women and for men; in the UK and Poland - 60 years for women and 65 years for men; in the USA, Canada, Finland, Sweden and Japan - 65 years for women and for men.

Age is essentially such a sign that it is impossible to pass by in the analysis of economic activity and the specifics of the demographic parameters of the labor market. As it increases (body aging), the vast majority of people experience an accumulation of vital and professional experience, but a decrease in physical capabilities and the actual ability to work and labor activity. Also noticeably increases the duration of rest required to restore the physical and moral strength of the body.

In this regard, it is by no means accidental that the statistical services of many countries of the world calculate the average age of people employed in the economy, and as they approach retirement age, for many people the problem of employment generally arises, since employers are far from always and reluctantly invite elderly people to work.

In addition to the boundaries of the working period (beginning and end of employment), at least important role plays the age of majority. So reaching the age of 18 opens up a fairly wide range of rights and obligations to the citizens of our country. The former include entry into the right to inherit, the possibility of independent use of property, participation in elections at various levels, marriage, etc., and the latter include full legal responsibility for one's own actions, conscription, etc. For example, knowing the age distribution of males, one can always get a more or less accurate idea of ​​the contingents of people of military age, reservists, the potential size of the army (in the case of mass mobilization), etc. Directly related to age are such socially significant contingents that are of paramount importance in the management of any state, such as preschool children, schoolchildren, applicants, youth, pensioners, etc.

To characterize the age structure of the population as the most important aspect of the demographic situation in statistical practice, groupings of people are used according to one-year, five-year or ten-year age intervals (in addition, grouping associated with the boundaries of working age is often used, when people younger than working age are distinguished; people of working age and people older than working age), the mean and median age of the population, as well as the coefficients of aging (bottom and top) and longevity of the population. The population aging coefficient below shows the proportion of children in society. The lower it is (that is, in fact, the lower the birth rate), the older the population living in this territory. The coefficient of population aging from above differs in that it measures the degree of old age in society by the proportion of not children, but the elderly, that is, persons aged 65 years and older. The longevity coefficient characterizes the proportion of centenarians (persons aged 65 years and older) in the total number of old people (persons aged 65 years and older). Moreover, for an unambiguous assessment of the degree of aging of the population of individual countries and regions of the world, UN specialists have developed a special interval scale, which allows not only to compare the age structure of the population of various states, but also to build their distribution depending on the degree of old age in society.

Currently, Russia is one of the countries with a fairly high level of demographic old age, which, of course, is reflected in the pace of its economic development and the rapid growth of government spending on social security and support for old people.

Separately, it should be said that age is also a relevant feature in the process of conducting various marketing researches, when all efforts are focused on identifying consumer preferences of certain age segments of the population. The practice of numerous and long-term observations convincingly proves that the young, middle and old (by age) generations have special priorities in the consumption of various goods and services, which cannot be ignored when organizing the activities of retail chains in a certain territory. In other words, understanding the role of the age conjuncture of the population (read consumers) is one of the keys to success in trade and entrepreneurship.

The parameters of residents by sex and age, being the most important characteristics of the demographic situation, can be summarized graphically in the form of a sex and age pyramid, which clearly reflects the age and sex distribution of the population as of a certain point in time. Gender and age pyramids by regions, countries of the world and their separate administrative and territorial units have great differences, which are due to the specifics of the national demographic situation and many other historical, political and socio-economic factors.

Another no less important direction in the study of the demographic conjuncture of society is the marriage and family structure of the population, the comparative characteristics of which, not only at the international, but even at the state level, are hampered by the peculiarities of legislation and local traditions. Each state sets its own age of marriage. For example, in Ireland it is 14 years for men and 12 years for women. In Russia, 18 years for both sexes. However, in some subjects of our country, possible options for reducing it are provided (at the request of the parents of the spouses, in case of pregnancy, etc.). At the same time, the UN, engaged in applied statistical research, considers the marriageable age interval starting from 15 years and older. As a result, due to existing differences, it is extremely difficult to conduct interstate and regional comparisons of the state of the population in marriage.

The marriage and family structure of the inhabitants corresponds to both the labor market and the consumer market. In the overwhelming majority of cases, the marital status of people predetermines their economic behavior, since a married person, to one degree or another, must adjust his life aspirations (including employment) in connection with the needs of the existence and development of the family. On the other hand, the family was and continues to be an independent unit of the consumer market, because certain goods (for example, housing, cars, large household appliances, etc.) are for the most part purchased not for one person, but for shared use.

In this regard, information about the number of families and their distribution according to various criteria is of great practical importance in solving numerous production and social issues of a managerial nature. In addition, changes in the marital and family status of residents are closely interconnected with inheritance, use or division of joint property, etc.

When considering the marital status of the population, such categories are most often singled out as married persons; persons who are not married; persons who have never been married; divorced, etc.

To quantitatively characterize the family composition of residents, such indicators as the number of families, the distribution of families by the number of members (families of 2, 3, etc.) are widely used, as well as the average size of one family, which is defined as the ratio of the number of family members population (persons living in families) to the number of families.

While doing research on the transformation of the demographic conjuncture of society, it is difficult to ignore such areas as the racial, national, linguistic and religious composition of the inhabitants.

When considering the racial composition of the population in economic and marketing research, four enlarged races are usually distinguished:

4. australoid.

Their assessment is based on indicators of the number of people belonging to a particular race, as well as their share in the total population of the world, region or country. The listed characteristics, as well as their dynamics, are of great importance in the sense that, despite the processes of globalization, democracy, public intolerance to racial discrimination, etc., representatives of different races, due to stereotypes, still have different attitudes towards the implementation of those or other production functions, work, holding certain positions. Therefore, the labor markets of many countries of the world have not yet lost elements racial differences, addictions, etc.

It should also be noted that representatives of different races are different consumers with specific needs.

For example, the results of marketing research convincingly prove that when buying household appliances, Europeans gravitate more towards white and gray colors, and Africans towards red and yellow.

Such differences should not be left unattended in the design and implementation of advertising campaigns and other consumer-oriented activities.

Considering the national composition of society, it should be noted that in recent decades, due to globalization, open borders, mass labor migration, large-scale assimilation, etc. many countries of the world refused to fix nationality as one of the demographic characteristics and excluded the question of nationality from their own population censuses. It is usually replaced by a question about citizenship (that is, the citizen of which state is the respondent). However, at the same time, no one can cancel the specifics of national employment, when representatives of certain nationalities gravitate to certain areas and sectors of employment, professions, crafts, etc. to a greater or lesser extent.

Not to mention the specifics of the national markets for food, clothing and a number of other goods and services. In this regard, the level and dynamics of such indicators as the number and proportion of representatives of certain nationalities can have a serious impact on the state and parameters of international, state and regional labor and consumption markets.

An extremely interesting direction in the analysis of the demographic situation is the linguistic composition of the population. According to UN experts, at present the most common languages ​​in the world are Chinese (it is spoken by the inhabitants of the largest state on our planet) and English (a means of international communication).

Obtaining more accurate estimates of the linguistic structure of the inhabitants of the Earth is associated with the problem of determining the native language for people who are fluent in several languages. In the economic and consumer contexts, one must not forget that in the vast majority of cases, actual employment is hardly possible at all without knowledge state language of the country where the employee is trying to find a job, and in accordance with international trade standards, goods and services sold in this territory must be accompanied by explanations, instructions, specifications, etc. on the mother tongue residents. Therefore, the linguistic structure of the population and its shifts can significantly predetermine the policy of the state in the sphere of labor and the organization of trade activities.

When analyzing the composition of residents by religion in relation to the specifics of employment and consumption of goods and services in international practice, priority is given to global religions, which include Christianity (including all its branches), Islam and Buddhism. However, this area is still dominated by expert opinions on the number of believers and the religious structure of the inhabitants, rather than actual figures. Until now, unfortunately, it is not possible to conduct a survey of all the inhabitants of the globe about their religious affiliation. In addition, along with global religions, there are also local religions that have become widespread only in certain countries or regions of the globe (for example, Hinduism, Shintoism, etc.), as well as a very large number of religious sects and atheists. Moreover, it is very difficult to clearly define a believer as an object of statistical observation (not all people are inclined to advertise their religious feelings). In this regard, it is far from always possible to establish the features of employment and employment of the population depending on religion, as well as the capacity and structure of the consumer market associated with certain religious customs, mores and traditions.

The size and composition of the population (actually the most important parameters of the demographic situation) are systematically changing as a result of the natural movement of people. The processes of fertility, mortality, marriage and divorce of people have always been, and will continue to be of great importance in the management of the organization and planning of the development of the most various areas life of modern society. Let's take a closer look at each of them.

Fertility is the basis of existence and the natural basis for the replenishment of any population. Without it, and civilization will cease to exist. In this sense, the replenishment of all the most important social contingents occurs at the expense of the birth rate. The difference lies only in the time lag between the date of birth and the date of entry into a particular population group. For example, those born, ceteris paribus, will enter the population of working age in our country (the core of the labor force and employment in the economy) in at least sixteen years. In this regard, the number of births is the initial base for determining such contingents as children of preschool age (important for a network of preschool institutions), children of school age (a network of schools), applicants (a network of universities and colleges), conscripts (army), people of pre-working age ( able-bodied contingent), etc., not to mention the actual network of maternity hospitals, clinics for examining women in labor, children's hospitals and their staff.

Moreover, in a number of cases, not only the number of births is important, but also its fluctuations in one direction or another, which objectively lead to a shortage or an overabundance of nurseries, kindergartens, schools and other educational institutions (our country has faced problems of this kind in recent years in full). measure). In the consumer market, the number of births determines the need for certain children's goods, services provided to the younger generations and their parents.

It is also possible to isolate separately such a direction - the birth rate as the most important characteristic of the productivity of families. Not to mention the fact that the average family size itself (especially in terms of the presence of children) has always occupied an important place in determining the priorities of housing construction.

Mortality corrects the results of the birth rate in this regard, too, from the standpoint of the economy, the labor market, and so on. always bears direct economic losses for the state, enterprises and firms, individual families. It is quite obvious that the deceased people (especially those of working age) could potentially or actually take part in the production of the gross domestic product. The death of employees at the level of enterprises and firms forces them to look for a replacement, which also, ultimately, leads to greater or lesser losses (at least an equivalent replacement is needed, an adaptation period is needed for a new employee, etc.). For a family, the loss of any of its members also promises certain losses. Firstly, this is the loss of one of the sources of livelihood (salary, pension, scholarship, allowance, etc.) or real practical assistance (raising children, housekeeping, etc.). Secondly, taking into account modern realities, these are significant costs associated with organizing funerals and commemorations. In this context, one should not forget that the number of the dead, its structure and dynamics most seriously affect the parameters of the funeral services market.

Especially in the conditions of cities, which are already experiencing the most serious problems with finding and renting land for the organization of burial places.

Separately, it should be noted that the birth rate, mortality, as well as the natural population growth that is formed as a result of their interaction, have always been and will remain the subject of various political discussions and disputes related to attempts to increase or decrease the rating of the current authorities, leaders, etc. in connection with the conjuncture of the level and dynamics of the considered demographic processes.

Marriage and breeding are noteworthy in the sense that they do not change the size of the population, but transform its structure and are reflected in the birth and death rates of residents, as well as in certain parameters of labor and consumption markets. It is known that the marital status of people modifies their economic behavior, most of the children are born to women who are married, and the life expectancy of family people is somewhat higher than that of single residents. At the same time, a market for marriage goods and services exists independently, which is completely focused on the number of marriages and their distribution by months within a year (in fact, like the activities of a number of agencies, lawyers, etc.).

tied to the number and frequency of divorces).

To quantify the natural movement of the population, absolute and relative indicators are used. The numbers of births, deaths, marriages and divorces, reflecting the scale of natural demographic processes, say nothing about their intensity. In this regard, they are not suitable for interstate and regional comparisons, and therefore need to be supplemented with relative indicators (general, private, age, etc.).

The general fertility, mortality, marriage and divorce rates characterize, respectively, the number of births, deaths, marriages and divorces per thousand inhabitants per year. They are traditional indicators of demographic statistics, which have been calculated by the same method for more than a century and a half. Their advantages are also the simplicity of calculation and the availability of initial information. A significant drawback of all general coefficients of natural movement of society is their strong dependence on the composition of the population (sex and age, marriage and family, national, religious, etc.). In order to eliminate the influence of the structural factor on the level of general coefficients of natural movement of the population, it is extremely important in practice to apply standardized indicators obtained on the basis of a single (accepted as a standard) population structure.

The ratio of the birth rate to the death rate of the population is called the vitality coefficient (or Pokrovsky index) and shows how many times the birth rate is greater or less than the death rate of the population.

divorce rates of the population, as well as their territorial distribution, allow us to assess the features and prospects of marriage and family relations in different countries, regions of the country and types of settlements.

Registered marriages and divorces are characterized by indicators of the number of men and women who have married, distributed by age groups, and indicating the registration of the first or second marriage, as well as the number of men and women who have registered a divorce, distributed by age groups and indicating the presence of children in under the age of 18. In order for the information to be comparable, one should take into account the fact that in some countries the total number of marriages may include marriages not only registered with state bodies, but also church and civil marriages.

When conducting economic and marketing research, it is advisable to use the scales of general birth and death rates that are widely known in demographic practice, which allow you to obtain an objective and uniform meaningful assessment of the intensity of the demographic processes under consideration (high, medium, low, etc.).

If we pay attention to the parameters of the natural movement of the population, we can state that in the economically developed countries of the world, low birth and death rates prevail, which in interaction provide a small (and in some cases negative) natural growth of society. In the economically developing countries of the world, a high birth rate coexists with an average or high death rate, forming an impressive population growth.

Private and age-specific fertility, mortality, marriage and divorce rates of the population are fundamentally different from overall indicators the fact that they are calculated not for the whole society, but for specific gender, age, etc. groups of residents (for example, the number of people who died at the age of 20, referred to the average annual number of twenty-year-old citizens of the country, will give the age-specific mortality rate of the population at the age of 20, etc., etc.).

Due to the fact that the general coefficients are a very rough estimate of the intensity of the vital movement of the population, special and total fertility rates are also used in statistical practice.

The special fertility rate, in contrast to the general one, is calculated in relation to women of reproductive age, which can significantly improve the accuracy of estimating the intensity of childbearing. The total fertility rate, which is determined on the basis of age-specific fertility rates, shows how many children, on average, a woman gives birth to in a lifetime.

Demographers and statisticians recognize that for simple reproduction of the population, the total birth rate should be 2.14-2.15 children born on average per woman during her lifetime.

For a more detailed characterization of the mortality of the population, the infant mortality rate is widely used, which is calculated as the ratio of children who died under the age of one year to the total number of births (in ppm). It reflects the intensity of mortality in children in the first year of life. Its level differs markedly in economically developed and economically developing countries of the world, due to a number of factors, among which the development of the healthcare system and the standard of living of the population occupy not the last place.

Mortality rates of the population of working age by main classes of causes of death are calculated as the quotient of the number of deaths of working age from the specified class of causes of death divided by the average annual number of persons of the same age.

All of the above main indicators of the vital movement of the population cannot be left outside the scope of applied economic and marketing research, since they are the most important characteristics that reflect the conditions and factors for the formation of the parameters of the labor market and the consumer market in all the variety of forms of their manifestation.

The results of the natural movement of the population are systematically supplemented by migration. At the international level, territorial movements occur between individual countries, which, in addition to interstate ones, also transforms interregional demographic, economic (labor) and consumer proportions.

The role of migration in the life of modern society is complex and diverse. Migration processes are closely intertwined with the processes of fertility, mortality, marriage and divorce, introducing specific elements into them. In addition, it is no secret to anyone that migrants sometimes more and sometimes less seriously transform all the key parameters of the local market. In the labor market, they not only change its capacity, but also correct the structure, character, tension, etc.

Labor migrants often undertake certain jobs on less favorable terms, willingly occupy jobs that are unattractive to local residents. Such a situation affects the minds, behavior and methods of action of employers, reflecting on the level of the proposed wages and requirements for the labor force (duration of the working day, guarantees, etc.). Under these conditions, the transport, trade, and other networks of settlements simply cannot ignore the differences that exist between the permanent and actual population, especially if illegal migration plays a significant role. Migrants act as an additional and often peculiar segment of the consumer market, which should not be ignored by businessmen and entrepreneurs, as well as by state tax and law enforcement agencies.

When characterizing migration flows in each country, on the basis of spatial movements of the population, internal and external migration are distinguished. Internal migration of the population is the movement of migrants within the country from one administrative-territorial unit to another. External (international) migration of the population is the movement of migrants associated with crossing the state border. The subjects of external migration are emigrants and immigrants. An emigrant is a person who leaves (settles) in another country for permanent or temporary residence. Classification as emigrants is made in each country in accordance with the current legislation (depending on the timing, purpose of departure, etc.) As a rule, the number of emigrants includes persons who have left for permanent residence outside the country. An immigrant is a person who enters (settled) a country for permanent or temporary residence. Classification as an immigrant is made in each country in accordance with applicable law (depending on the timing, purpose of entry, etc.). As a rule, the number of immigrants includes persons who have arrived in the country for permanent residence from outside it.

Depending on the time of stay of a person in the territory of another country, permanent, temporary and pendulum migration are distinguished.

Permanent (long-term) migration is characterized by arrival or departure to a permanent place of residence. Temporary (short-term) migration is entry or exit associated with current needs without changing citizenship and permanent residence.

Pendulum migration is a special type of migration depending on time and represents the movement of workers to their place of work from one region to another and back to their place of residence if the period of absence of a person at a permanent place of residence was less than one week.

According to the method of organization, migration is distinguished between legal and illegal.

Legal migration is migration within the limits of annually allocated quotas (issued applications for entry into the country) of the total number of immigrants. Illegal (illegal) migration is migration that is not formalized with official documents.

By the nature of movements, migration can be voluntary and forced. Voluntary migration is migration, the decision on which depends solely on the desire of the migrant. Forced migration is migration, the causes of which are various conflicts, usually armed and interethnic, and the prevailing political and socio-economic conditions (pressure from the authorities, the environmental situation, etc.). The subjects of forced migration are persons seeking asylum in the territory of a given country (region). These are refugees, forced migrants and displaced persons, which include persons who are forced to leave their place of permanent residence in the territory of this or another state as a result of violence committed against them or persecution in other forms, or a real danger of being subjected to violence or other persecution on the basis of racial or nationality, religion, language, as well as belonging to a particular social group or political opinion. At the same time, as a rule, refugees are recognized as citizens who do not have citizenship of the country of asylum, and forced migrants and displaced persons are citizens who have citizenship of this country.

Labor migration should be considered as an independent category. Labor migration (or labor force migration) is the movement (relocation) of the economically active population associated with a change (or search) for a job, across the territory, industries and sectors of the economy.

Each migrant is departed in relation to the territory of departure and arrived in relation to the territory of arrival. At the same time, arrivals are the number of people who entered (moved into) a given territory from outside it, and those who left are the number of people who left (moved) from a given territory outside its boundaries during the observation period. In the current statistical accounting, the numbers of arrivals and departures, both within the country and abroad, are conditionally fixed at present, but in reality we are talking about the numbers of arrivals and departures.

To quantitatively characterize territorial movements, along with absolute indicators (number of arrivals; number of departures; migration balance equal to the difference between arrivals and departures; migration turnover equal to the sum of arrivals and departures), relative coefficients are also calculated, among which the most important are the coefficients of arrival, departure and migration population turnover. The coefficients of arrival and departure, respectively, reflect the intensity of migration processes (arrivals and departures) per thousand inhabitants, and their difference between them shows the magnitude of the migration increase (or loss) of the population. Also, in the analysis of the demographic situation, in order to assess the effectiveness of the migration movement of residents, it is customary to determine the effectiveness of migration characterizes the share of migration growth in the entire migration turnover of the population.

The coefficients of arrival, departure and migration growth calculated for specific population groups (by sex, age, etc.) are useful in identifying factors that determine migration activity and the socio-economic portrait of migrants. Therefore, the relative indicators of population migration can be grouped according to various criteria (territorial, temporal, socio-demographic, etc.) depending on the available information base and the purpose of the study.

Statistical accounting of population migration in the countries of the world and in Russia is based on the information obtained during the registration of a migrant upon arrival. Separately, it should be noted that conducting international comparisons of indicators of the migration movement of the population in practice is associated with serious difficulties. The main one is that in various countries The world has its own approaches to the definition of the concept of "migrant" and there is no unified system for registering the territorial movements of people. Data on international migration around the world are not comparable due to the fact that there is no agreed definition of the category "international migrant".

Thus, of particular relevance applied research migration as one of the factors of the demographic conjuncture of society is currently determined by the fact that in most economically developed countries of the world, migration processes are the most important source of replenishment of the population and the formation of labor market parameters and consumer structure.

The central place in applied economic and marketing research, by definition, should belong to the analysis of population reproduction indicators. Under the reproduction of the population is understood the process of continuous replacement of old generations of people by new younger generations. If, as a result of this process, the population of the state remains at a constant level, but we are dealing with simple reproduction. If the population increases (decreases), then the reproduction of society from a demographic point of view is expanded (narrowed) in nature.

In the context of this study, demographic reproduction is decisive. This is explained by the fact that the replacement of generations of the population predetermines the replacement of all the most important groups of residents participating in the functioning of labor and consumption markets. In other words, the reproduction of the population is a fundamental process for the reproduction of labor resources and workers employed in the economy, as well as for the reproduction of all consumers of goods and services without exception.

For a generalizing quantitative characteristic of the replacement of generations of people, in practice, gross and net reproduction rates, as well as the economy of population reproduction, are most often used. The gross reproduction rate shows how many girls (since it is the female generations that are responsible for the resumption of life) on average one woman gives birth in her entire life. The net reproduction rate more accurately characterizes the process of replacement of female generations, as it reflects how many girls, on average, one woman gives birth to throughout her life, taking into account the mortality factor (that is, the survival of girls at least to the age of their mothers at the time of their own birth). The economy of reproduction is calculated as the ratio of the net and gross reproduction rates of the population (in percent) and reflects losses in the process of replacing female generations due to mortality.

For example, if the efficiency of reproduction is 95%, then this means that the loss in the process of replacing female generations due to mortality is 5%.

Among the indicators of the reproduction of society, the average life expectancy of the population is extremely popular, which clearly characterizes the differences between individual countries, regions, regions, etc. It can be calculated both for newborns and for persons who have reached a certain age.

Average life expectancy at birth is the number of years that, on average, one person from some hypothetical generation of those born would have to live, provided that throughout the life of this generation the mortality rate at each age remains the same as in the years for which the indicator is calculated .

The average life expectancy for persons who have reached a certain age is the average number of years that those who have reached a given age would have to live if the current mortality rate of the population is maintained at each next age.

Average life expectancy is usually calculated separately for men and women. This indicator vividly reflects the noticeable differences that exist in life expectancy, especially between the economically developed and economically developing states of the globe.

Analyzing the level of average life expectancy in individual countries of the world, special attention should be paid to the fact that in the economically advanced countries of the world women live noticeably longer than men, and in Russia the difference in life expectancy of the sex groups of the population in general is an impressive value (13 years) . At the same time, the life expectancy of people is always of great importance in terms of its possible use for labor activity for the benefit of society.

For a detailed analysis of the intensity of the extinction of the population (read the mechanism of the formation of the demographic conjuncture of society), it is advisable to use mortality tables. From a historical point of view, the idea of ​​their construction was expressed by the Roman lawyer Ulpian, who lived in the third century AD. From a practical point of view, it was first implemented by John Graunt, who in 1662 built a mortality table for the inhabitants of London.

The mortality table is a statistical table that contains calculated indicators that reflect the mortality of the population at specific ages. It is an ordered sequence of values ​​showing how a certain generation of births would gradually decrease in the transition from younger ages to the elders under the influence of the existing mortality rate.

In the tables of mortality, the change in the number of the conditional generation (that is, the totality of those born in one year, which is assumed to be 10,000 or 100,000 people) is fixed during the transition from age to age. Calculations of indicators of the mortality table are based on the assumption that throughout the life of the generation under consideration, the mortality rate in certain age groups will correspond to the real mortality rate at the time of its compilation.

When analyzing the demographic situation, a visual representation of the results of the demographic development of society makes it possible to obtain an absolute increase (decrease) in the population. This indicator reflects how much the number of inhabitants of a particular country (or region) has changed (increased or decreased) compared to the previous year or the year taken as the basis for comparison. If the population has decreased over the period under study (as, for example, in Russia and in some European countries), then depopulation is observed - a clear sign of the unfavorable demographic development of society.

Despite the simplicity and clarity of the absolute increase (decrease) in the number of inhabitants, it should be noted that this indicator does not always allow direct statistical comparisons.

This is due to differences in the population of individual states, regions or areas. For example, it is quite obvious that the absolute increase in the number of inhabitants of China, as the most populated country in the world, will exceed that of any European power. To take into account this specific circumstance, it is advisable to use relative indicators - the rate of growth or population growth. Thus, the last of them characterizes by what percentage the number of members of a society has increased or decreased, regardless of its absolute boundaries.

The interaction of natural and migratory demographic processes, the reproduction of inhabitants modify the structure of the population, including the age structure, which forms the conditions and prerequisites for the transformation of the parameters of labor markets and consumption. In this regard, in order to characterize the transformation of the age composition of residents, it is necessary to involve indicators of the demographic burden (children, the elderly, and in general). The demographic burden of children and the elderly, respectively, shows how many children or old people are per thousand of the population aged 15 to 59 years. The total workload consists of the workload of children and the workload of the elderly. From an economic point of view, the relevance of these parameters of the demographic situation is due to the fact that with a decrease in the birth rate and the aging of society, there is usually a decrease in the burden of children and an increase in the burden of the elderly, which is reflected in other indicators of the replacement of generations in society.

To study the consequences of the transformation of the conjuncture of society, the methodology for constructing demographic burden indicators can be somewhat modified. From the point of view of labor replacement of generations, indicators of economic burden are of greater interest, among which are the coefficients of labor replacement, pension burden and total labor burden. The labor replacement rate reflects the ratio of persons younger than working age and working age. It is of great importance from the standpoint of the prospective replacement of the able-bodied contingent. The pension burden coefficient characterizes how many pensioners there are for every thousand people of working age. Its increase, usually associated with the aging of society, has a negative impact on the pace of economic development, since pensioners are dependent on society. The total economic burden ratio measures how many dependents there are per person of working age.

The demographic conjuncture of society is a complex, and most importantly, multifaceted category. Therefore, a system of various indicators is used to characterize its state and changes.

On the one hand, the composite indicators of this system allow you to get a comprehensive idea of ​​the essence of the object of study. On the other hand, the presence of a significant number of quantitative parameters complicates or even makes it impossible to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the demographic situation (since some of its characteristics can improve in parallel with the deterioration of other characteristics, which does not allow an objective formulation of a generalizing conclusion). In this regard, there is a need to search for options, approaches, methods of a consolidated assessment of the demographic situation. One of them is related to measuring the level of demographic security of society.

In general, demographic security as a social category is the protection of the development of the state (region, region or other administrative-territorial entity) from internal and external demographic threats. It manifests itself in a wide variety of directions, among which there are population dynamics, distribution, composition, movement and reproduction of the population. Multifaceted, and therefore extremely complex nature demographic security objectively forces one to resort to an integral assessment of its level, which makes it possible to link various aspects of the object of study into a single whole.

One of options an integral assessment of the level of demographic security of society is a method for calculating the sum of points awarded for specific private indicators (criteria parameters) of the state of the population. Its semantic content is as follows:

where IBSI is the integral level of demographic security;

i is the number of partial indicators (criteria parameters) included in the calculation of the IBDI;

Bi - points accrued for a particular indicator of the state of the population.

The selection of private indicators of the state of the population and the method of scoring may be different. For example, Dudarev V.B. 2 in his calculations used such seven criterion parameters as:

depopulation coefficient; population aging rate; general mortality rate of the population;

infant mortality rate and average life expectancy separately for men and women, which made it possible to unite various facets of a complex social phenomenon into a single whole. He then proceeded in this way. If the actual indicator of the state of the population was at the level of the criterion value of the particular indicator of demographic security under consideration, then 10 points were awarded for this (a round figure convenient for making any calculations of percentages). For Dudarev V.B. Statistical study of the demographic security of Russia. Dissertation for the degree of candidate of economic sciences.

M., MESI, 2008.

every 10% exceeding (or not achieving) this level, 1 point was additionally added (or subtracted) to 10 points.

The simplicity and clarity of such an algorithm for calculating the IUDB does not raise the slightest doubt (although, in our opinion, it would be more expedient to take not 10, but 100 points as the base of calculations - as the base of calculations generally accepted in statistics when finding relative values) under two conditions.

First, with the complete unanimity of opinions on the list of particular indicators of the state of the population included in the calculation of the BRI. Secondly, if all parameters are equal to each other and are included in the calculation directly, without resorting to weighting, taking into account the practical significance of this or that indicator. It is quite obvious that both of these conditions are not absolutely objective, and therefore their continuous implementation is problematic. So let's take a closer look at each of them.

In the specialized literature, there are different opinions on the list of private indicators related to demographic security. So Dmitrieva O.G.3 names the following characteristics among them:

the ratio of birth and death rates;

balance of migration between urban and rural areas;

age and sex structure of the population, etc.

Shakhotko L.P. and Privalova N.N.4 in this context, other demographic indicators are distinguished:

total fertility rate;

conditional coefficient of depopulation (the ratio of the number of life expectancy of the population with Dmitrieva O.G. Regional economic diagnostics. SPb., 1982, p.40.

Shakhotko L.P., Privalova N.N. Demographic security: essence, tasks, system of indicators and implementation mechanism. Questions of statistics, 2001, No. 7, pp. 19-20.

infant mortality (number of children who died under one year per maternal mortality (per 100,000 live births);

level of alcohol consumption per capita;

population morbidity mental disorders(per 100,000 population of the corresponding age);

the incidence of tuberculosis among the population (per 100,000 of the population of the corresponding age);

morbidity of the population with venereal diseases (per 100,000 of the population of the corresponding age).

V. B. Dudarev, already mentioned above, using in his practical calculations (taking into account the availability of comparable information) seven particular indicators of the state of the population, theoretically considered a wider list, including thirteen indicators:

coefficient of old age of the population;

the degree of disproportionality in the sex composition of the population - representation of the titular nationality;

total fertility rate;

intensity of abortions in reproductive age;

general mortality rate of the population;

infant mortality rate;

migration growth rate of the population;

the level of illegal migration;

average life expectancy at birth is the net reproduction rate of the population.

Far from a complete review of opinions on this issue indicates the presence of a significant element of subjectivity. Its elimination is possible through the use of a consolidated point of view, which can be developed by qualified experts, taking into account the opinions of scientists and practitioners involved in research and statistical characterization of the demographic situation. True, it should not be forgotten that over time, the relevance of certain internal and external demographic threats may increase or decrease, new aspects may appear that previously did not have any pronounced or significant outlines from the standpoint of the demographic security of society. Certain disagreements may arise when justifying the need to take into account certain aspects of demographic security at the regional or international levels. Moreover, demographic, economic, social, political, ecological, etc. processes not only interact, but are closely intertwined with each other. For example, Shakhotko L.P. and Privalova N.N. Among private indicators of demographic security, the level of alcohol consumption per capita and the incidence of mental disorders, tuberculosis and venereal diseases are singled out. In our opinion, such a path can hardly be considered optimal, since alcohol consumption and the incidence of the population (as well as drug use, substance abuse, the spread of AIDS, hunger, disability of members of society and many other negative phenomena) are most likely aspects or facets of social security and do not appear to be events or processes (as, say, birth or death rates) that conceal precisely demographic threats to the development of society.

Considering the condition associated with weighing private indicators of demographic security, it should be noted that, first of all, both in their content and in the actual state of affairs, they are not equal. In this regard, it seems justified to quantify the level of demographic security based on the use of correction factors:

where IUDB(n) is the integral level of demographic security, taking into account the correction factors;

Ki - correction factors for individual private indicators included in the calculation of the IBDI.

The meaning of the correction factors is as follows.

If one or another particular indicator of demographic security does not cause serious concern, then its score is included in the IBSI with a correction factor equal to one. If a particular indicator of demographic security, due to its disadvantage, is alarming, then its scoring in order to enhance the “effect”

included in the IBDI with a correction factor less than one. In order to stimulate specific demographic "achievements"

A correction factor greater than one can also be applied.

The use of correction factors in the process of calculating the BRI is possible in two main ways. First, based on the expert method. It lies in the fact that special experts develop a unanimous opinion on the values ​​of correction factors that allow us to refine the scores of individual particular characteristics of demographic security. Secondly, on the basis of regulation of the process of practical application of correction factors. For example, if private actual indicators differ from the criterion values ​​of demographic security by less than 25% (20%, etc.), then their scores are included in the IBSI with a correction factor equal to one. If the difference is 25% or more, then in this case the score of a particular indicator is accordingly multiplied (or divided) by two (and so on, according to experts). With this approach, in principle, a more detailed scale can also be developed (Table 1).

The values ​​of the correction factors given in the second and third columns of Table. 1 are exemplary (recommendatory) in nature and can be approved on the basis of the consolidation of private opinions of individual scientists, specialists, experts involved in assessing the demographic situation.

Correction coefficients for calculating the IRBI Deviation of the actual indicator of the demographic In greater To less than the criterion value, % Calculation of the generalized assessment of the demographic security of society can be carried out not on the basis of the use of correction factors, but using the procedure for weighing partial scores of individual aspects of the phenomenon under study:

where SIUDB is the average integral level of demographic security;

di is the weight of the partial indicator included in the calculation of the SIBI.

The use of weights for private indicators of demographic security is possible in two main versions (Table 2).

demographic distribution of weights distribution of security weights The first variant is actually associated with the calculation of a simple arithmetic mean of the scores of various particular indicators of demographic security included in the calculation of the SIBS. In this case, di = 1: n, and therefore:

The second option involves strengthening (due to greater weight) more significant or relevant characteristics of demographic security. It makes it necessary to justify the weights used in the process of statistical calculations. The solution to this problem is also possible through the involvement of experts involved in the statistical characteristics of the demographic situation. True, in some particular cases of this option, a mathematical formalization of the process of finding the weights of particular indicators of demographic security is possible. This is especially true of the sub-variant when an attempt is made to single out a leader (leaders) among a set of characteristics that reflect the state of the population. For example, if any indicator is singled out, which, due to its significance or relevance, is given double weight (d = 2: n), then for the rest of the private indicators of demographic security (they are equal to each other), the weight is calculated according to the formula:

If you want to give the leader a triple weight (d = 3: n), the rest of the equal indicators of demographic security will correspond to the following weight:

The presence of two equal leaders with double weight leaves all other indicators with the same weight:

and with equal leaders with a triple weight, other indicators of demographic security have even less weight:

This approach again retains a certain element of subjectivity associated with assigning a leader (or several leaders) among various aspects of demographic security a double, triple (and maybe one and a half or four, etc.) weights. Also not indisputable is the “equality” of indicators of the demographic state of society remaining behind the leader (leaders), which, in principle, can also be unequal, both in their internal content and in their practical significance.

In conclusion, it must be noted that at present, in our opinion, the integral quantitative characteristic of the level of demographic security of society, unfortunately, still continues to be that area or part of domestic statistical science and practice, which contains a fairly large number of "white spots”, the elimination of which will make it possible to adequately assess the current state and prospective consequences of the processes taking place in society and associated with the transformations of its demographic conjuncture.

Chapter 2. Managing the processes of employment of the population (economic and socio-demographic aspects) The economic reforms being carried out in Russia have contributed to the emergence of a variety of forms of ownership and management. A serious social problem has arisen – the social protection of basic human rights in the sphere of work.

The state employment policy is a multi-level process:

At the macro level, the highest bodies of state legislative and executive power solve the cardinal tasks of employment policy:

harmonization of the goals and priorities of the employment policy with economic, social, demographic and migration coordination of the system of goals and priorities of the employment policy with financial, credit, structural, investment, foreign economic policy.

development of employment and social support policies At the regional level, the above areas are taken into account. However, the powers of regional governments are somewhat narrowed. For example, population policy is carried out by federal authorities.

The regions include the promotion of employment among the main priorities of their policies and, within their competence, implement social policies. At the regional level, in the interests of employment policy, housing, transport and industrial construction programs and others are being implemented.

At the regional level, measures to support farming and small businesses are more effective than at the national level.

Employment problems at the regional level are solved as follows:

development of a system of training and retraining of the population (primarily the temporarily unemployed);

improvement of information support (including by trained personnel of employment centers;

targeted support for jobs to contain the increase in the efficiency of registration, employment and social support for the unemployed;

support in the labor market for refugees and forced migrants, citizens with limited ability to work, long-term unemployed, women, youth and adolescents and other socially unprotected groups of the population;

organization of public and temporary works.

At the local level, all the practical work on employment, payment of benefits, and training is carried out.

ENGINEERING-1 2007 UDC 621.929.3 BBK L710.514 P791 Reviewers: Head of the Department Fundamentals of Equipment Design, Moscow State University engineering ecology doctor of technical sciences, professor V.S. Kim Deputy Director of OAO NIIRTMash Candidate of Technical Sciences V.N. Shashkov P791 Design of extrusion...»

“Ministry of Science and Education of the Russian Federation FGBOU VPO Magnitogorsk State University INDEX OF STABLE VERBAL COMPLEXES OF MONUMENTS OF EASTERN SLAVIC ORIGIN X–XI centuries. Magnitogorsk, 2012 / Scientific research. vocabulary lab. ; comp. : O.S. Klimova, A.N. Mikhin, L.N. Mishina, A.A. Osipova, D.A. Khodichenkova, S.G. Shulezhkova; ch. ed. S.G...."

« V. V., Chief Researcher of the Institute of State and Law of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Law. Sciences Lapaeva VV Types of legal understanding: legal theory and practice: MonoL 24 graph. - M.: Russian Academy of Justice, 2012. ISBN 978-5-93916-330-9 (RAP) ISBN 978-5-83390-088-3 (IGP RAS) The history of the formation and ... "

“E.A. Uretsky Resource-saving technologies in the water management of industrial enterprises 1 Brest BBK 38.761.2 V 62 UDC.628.3(075.5). R e e n s e n t s:. Director of TsIIKIVR Doctor of Technical Sciences M.Yu. Kalinin., Director of the Republican Unitary Enterprise Brest Center for Scientific and Technical Information and Innovations of the State Committee for Science and Technology of the Republic of Belarus Martynyuk V.N. Edited by Deputy. director for scientific work of the Polessky Agrarian and Ecological Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Ph.D. Volcheka A.A. Resource-saving technologies in the water ... "

« Konstantinovich Volosyuk Biobibliographic index To the 70th anniversary of the birth of Kharkiv KhAI 2013 UDC 016: 378.4 + 621.39 + 621.396.96 V 68 Compiled by: I. V. Oleinik, V. S. Gres, K. M. Nesterenko Edited by N. M. Tkachenko Professor Valery Konstantinovich Volosyuk: biobibliogr. In 68 decree. : to the 70th anniversary of the birth / comp.: I. V .... "

« OF THE WATER-MANAGEMENT COMPLEX OF THE OB AND IRTYSH BASIN Managing editors: Dr. Geogr. Sciences Yu.I. Vinokurov, Doctor of Biological Sciences A.V. Puzanov, Ph.D. biol. Sciences D.M. Bezmaternykh Novosibirsk Publishing House of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences 2012 UDC 556 (571.1/5) BBK 26.22 (2R5) C56 The current state of water resources and functioning ... "

“I dedicate this book to the memory of our Russian scientist Pavel Petrovich Anosov, a great worker, an honest man, whose unparalleled devotion to damask steel causes me great respect and gratitude; to the blessed memory of my mother, Yugova Valentina Zosimovna, who gave birth to and raised me in difficult years for us; in memory of my uncle, Pavel Ivanovich Voronin, who taught me men's work; in memory of the blacksmith Alexei Nikulenkov, who gave me a difficult but interesting profession in my life. In l a d i m ... "

“Yu.Yu. GROMOV, V.O. DRACHEV, K.A. NABATOV, O.G. IVANOV SYNTHESIS AND ANALYSIS OF THE SURVIVABILITY OF NETWORK SYSTEMS MOSCOW PUBLISHING HOUSE MASHINOSTROENIE-1 2007 Yu.Yu. GROMOV, V.O. DRACHEV, K.A. NABATOV, O.G. IVANOV SYNTHESIS AND ANALYSIS OF THE SURVIVABILITY OF NETWORK SYSTEMS Monograph MOSCOW PUBLISHING HOUSE MASHINOSTROENIE-1 2007 Kustov Doctor of Physics and Mathematics...»

“L.T. Zhurba EM Mastyukova DISTURBANCE OF PSYCHOMOTOR DEVELOPMENT OF CHILDREN IN THE FIRST YEAR OF LIFE Moscow. The medicine. 1981 LBC 56.12 UDC 616.7+616.89]-0.53.3 Zh U R B A L. T., MASTYUKOVA E. M. Violation of the psychomotor development of children in the first year of life. - M.: Medicine, 1981, 272 p., ill. L. T. Zhurba - Candidate of Medical Sciences, Senior Researcher, Department of Nervous Diseases II M O L G M I im. N. I. Pirogov. E. M. Mastyukova - Doctor of Medical Sciences, Senior Researcher of the Institute ... "

“Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation Russian Geographical Society Biysk Branch State Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education Altai State Academy of Education named after V.M. Shukshina A.N. Rudoy, ​​G.G. Rusanov THE LAST GLACATION IN THE UPPER CURRENT BASIN OF THE KOKSA RIVER Monograph Biysk GOUVPO AGAO 2010 LBC 26.823(2Ros.Alt) R 83 Sciences, Professor of TSU V.A. Zemtsov..."

“Yelabuzh State Pedagogical University Department of Psychology G.R. Shagivaleeva Loneliness and Peculiarities of its Experience by Students Elabuga - 2007 Minutes No. 16 dated April 26, 2007 Reviewers: Abolin L.M. - Doctor of Psychology, Professor of Kazan State University Ldokova G.M. - Candidate of Psychological Sciences, Associate Professor ... "

«MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION NOVGOROD STATE UNIVERSITY NAMED AFTER YAROSLAV THE WISE DV Mikhailov, GM Emelyanov THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS FOR BUILDING OPEN QUESTION AND ANSWER SYSTEMS. SEMANTIC EQUIVALENCE OF TEXTS AND MODELS OF THEIR RECOGNITION Monograph VELIKY NOVGOROD 2010 UDC 681.3.06 )..."

Text Publishing House Krasnodar, 2013 UDC 281.9 BBK 86.372 E 36 Recommended for publication by the Publishing Council of the Russian Orthodox Church IS 13-304-0347 The book was published at the expense of the Ekaterinodar and Kuban diocese, as well as personal donations. The text of the book is printed according to the publication: The teaching of the ancient Church on property and alms. Kyiv, 1910. Foreword: Somin N.V. Ekzemplyarsky, Vasily Ilyich. E 36 The teaching of the ancient Church on property and alms / V. I. Ekzemplyarsky. - Krasnodar: ... "

“V.A. KACHESOV INTENSIVE REHABILITATION OF VICTIMS WITH COMBINED INJURY MOSCOW 2007 Turnover of the title. output information. UDC BBK Kachesov V.A. K 111 Intensive rehabilitation of victims with combined trauma: monograph / V.A. Kachesov. - M .: name of the publishing house, 2007. - 111 p. ISBN The book introduces practicing resuscitators, traumatologists, neurosurgeons and rehabilitation specialists with the author's experience in providing intensive rehabilitation care to victims with severe injuries in the department ... "

“Federal Agency for Education State Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education Ryazan State University named after S.A. Yesenina N.G. Agapova Paradigm Orientations and Models of Modern Education ( system analysis in the context of the philosophy of culture) Monograph Ryazan 2008 BBK 71.0 A23 Published by decision of the editorial and publishing council of the state educational institution of higher professional education Ryazan State ... "

“N.G. BARANETS, A.B. VEREVKIN METHODOLOGICAL CONSCIOUSNESS OF RUSSIAN SCIENTISTS IN THE 19th - BEGINNING OF THE 20TH CENTURIES Ulyanovsk 2011 and Sciences of the Russian Federation Scientific and scientific and pedagogical staff of innovative Russia for 2009-2013. Reviewers: Doctor of Philosophy, Professor V.A. Bazhanov Doctor of Philosophy, Professor A.A. Tikhonov Baranets N.G., Veryovkin A.B. METHODOLOGICAL CONSCIOUSNESS OF THE RUSSIAN...»

“MEDICAL AND BIOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF REHABILITATION AND RECOVERY TECHNOLOGIES IN OBSTETRICS Edited by Khadartseva K.A. Tula, 2013 European Academy of Natural Sciences Russian Academy of Natural Sciences Tula State University Tula, 2013 UDC 618.2/.7 Biomedical aspects of rehabilitation and recovery technologies in...»

«Svetlana Zamlelova Transgression of the myth of Judas Iscariot in the XX-XXI centuries. Moscow - 2014 UDC 1:2 BBC 87:86.2 З-26 Reviewers: V.S. Glagolev - Doctor of Philosophy. n., professor; K.I. Nikonov - Doctor of Philosophy n., professor. Zamlelova S.G. Z-26 The traitor has approached. : Transgression of the myth of Judas Iscariot in the XX-XXI centuries. : monograph. / S.G. Zamlelov. - M., 2014. - 272 p. ISBN 978-5-4465-0327-8 The monograph by Zamlelova Svetlana Georgievna is devoted to the philosophical understanding of the transgression of the Christian myth about Judas Iscariot in ... "

“WORKINGS OF THE HISTORICAL FACULTY OF SPbSU Editorial Board: Dr. ist. Sciences A. Yu. Dvornichenko (Chairman), Doctor of History. Sciences E. D. Frolov, Dr. ist. Sciences G. E. Lebedeva, Dr. ist. Sciences V. N. Baryshnikov, Doctor of History. Sci. Yu. V. Krivosheev, Dr. ist. Sciences M. V. Khodyakov, Doctor of History. Sciences Yu. V. Tot, Ph.D. ist. Sciences II Vernyaev BBK 63.3(0)5-28 (4Vel) K 68 Reviewers: Dr. ist. sciences, prof. G.E. Lebedeva (St. Petersburg State University), Doctor of History Sciences, Leading Researcher N.V. Revunenkova (GMIR St. Petersburg) Published by decision ... "

"RUSSIAN UNIVERSITY OF FRIENDSHIP OF PEOPLES V. D. Bordunov INTERNATIONAL AIR LAW Moscow NOU VKSh Aviabiznes 2007 UDC (075) LBC 67.404.2ya7+67yu412ya7 B 82 Reviewers: Brylov A.N., Academician of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Honored Lawyer of the Russian Federation, Candidate legal sciences, Deputy General Director of OJSC Aeroflot - Russian Airlines; Eliseev B.P., Doctor of Law, Professor, Honored Lawyer of the Russian Federation, Deputy General Director of OJSC Aeroflot - Russian Airlines, Director of the Legal ... "

The proposed textbook differs from analogues in that it is focused on the conscious transfer of the center of gravity from traditional theoretical issues of demographic science to solving applied problems related to the place and role of the number, composition, distribution, movement and reproduction of the population in the management of key socio-economic processes. A feature of the textbook is the selection of a number of new issues and topics related to the characteristics and assessment of the demographic expansion and demographic security of society, as well as the use of relevant statistical data that reflect current trends in the development of the population.

Step 1. Choose books in the catalog and click the "Buy" button;

Step 2. Go to the "Basket" section;

Step 3. Specify the required quantity, fill in the data in the Recipient and Delivery blocks;

Step 4. Click the "Proceed to payment" button.

At the moment, it is possible to purchase printed books, electronic accesses or books as a gift to the library on the ELS website only with 100% advance payment. After payment, you will be given access to the full text of the textbook within Electronic Library or we start preparing an order for you at the printing house.

Attention! Please do not change the payment method for orders. If you have already chosen any payment method and failed to complete the payment, you must re-register the order and pay for it in another convenient way.

You can pay for your order using one of the following methods:

1. Cashless way:
   • Bank card: you must fill in all fields of the form. Some banks ask you to confirm the payment - for this, an SMS code will be sent to your phone number.
   • Online banking: banks cooperating with the payment service will offer their own form to fill out. Please enter the correct data in all fields.
     For example, for " class="text-primary">Sberbank Online mobile phone number and email required. For " class="text-primary">Alpha Bank you will need a login in the Alfa-Click service and email.
   • Electronic wallet: if you have a Yandex wallet or Qiwi Wallet, you can pay for the order through them. To do this, select the appropriate payment method and fill in the proposed fields, then the system will redirect you to the page to confirm the invoice.