Caspian region. What prospects await the Caspian region favorites

As already mentioned, following the results of the Caspian summit, the leaders of Russia, Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan managed to sign a convention, which led to the conclusion that the problem of the Caspian region had finally begun to be resolved, although the issue of dividing the water area and naval armaments was never resolved - the adoption of the final Convention on the status of the Caspian Sea was postponed until the next summit. The key point of the document was the recognition of sovereignty over the Caspian Sea and, accordingly, its resources only by the Caspian states themselves, and only their flags can be installed on ships in the Caspian Sea, at least until the signing of the final convention. The declaration reflects the intention of all the states of the region to maintain good neighborly relations and solve all problems exclusively by peaceful means. In accordance with this, a ban has been introduced for the Caspian countries to provide their territories to foreign states for aggression against their neighbors. This, in particular, means that if the Western countries unleash a war against Iran, they will not be able to find a strategic footing in the Caspian territories. The declaration also reflects the right of all the Caspian states Vladimir Putin during a press conference following the meeting.

The current situation in the Caspian region is determined by the fact that in this region, rich in hydrocarbon resources, the interests of the leading world powers - Russia, the United States, China and the European Union - have intersected. Historical realities show that, on the one hand, the great powers are looking for ways to establish cooperation with representatives of the region on a bilateral and multilateral basis, including in the energy sector and in the interests of taking measures to eliminate the threat of international terrorism. On the other hand, in one form or another they are playing a "great game" determined by national, geopolitical and geo-economic interests.

For Russia, the Caspian region is a traditional area of ​​national interests. Russia is interested in strengthening its positions in the Caspian Sea and in preventing the dominance of third forces here. Its policy is aimed at solving three main strategic objectives: protecting and building own positions in the Caspian, maintaining stability in the region, developing regional cooperation.

After "forcing Georgia to peace", the recognition by Russia and some countries of the world of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the geopolitical situation has changed not only in the South Caucasus, but also in the Caspian zone. By its actions, Russia limited the influence of the US, Great Britain and the West in general not only on the South Caucasus, but also on the Caspian zone.

However, the struggle to change the status of this region has not ended; on the contrary, it has intensified. So much so that it is quite possible to expect attempts by the West to organize a change of power in the countries of the Caspian region to regimes less loyal to Moscow. In Iran or Turkmenistan, where the power structures are strong, it will be almost impossible to do this, but it may well happen in Azerbaijan.

Russia, showing good will and wishing to maintain stability in Republic of Azerbaijan and throughout the South Caucasus, has repeatedly prevented certain, including foreign, interested forces from organizing coup d'état and plunging the Azerbaijani people into the abyss of bloody clashes.

In October 2005, Azerbaijani special services prevented a coup d'etat, which was planned by the former minister economic development Azerbaijan Farhad Aliyev together with former Finance Minister Fikret Yusifov, chairman of the Popular Front Party Ali Karimli, ex-speaker Rasul Guliyev and other politicians and businessmen. It is unlikely that the story would have ended successfully if not for the help of the Russian special services. Then President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev met with the Director of the Service foreign intelligence Russia Sergey Lebedev and called cooperation between the special services of the two countries very important.

Naturally, the Russian authorities pursued several goals with this step. First, what was most important, to prevent civil war the deaths of innocent people. Secondly, to prevent the geopolitical strengthening of the neighboring state in the South Caucasus. Thirdly, to deprive the United States and NATO countries of a pretext for bringing “peacekeeping” forces to Azerbaijan with the task of countering the expansion of a neighboring state. As you know, NATO forces easily enter the country, but leave for a long time, if at all. With regard to the conversation about this region, it can be assumed with 100% probability that they will never leave: even during the First World War, Clemenceau said that “one drop of oil is worth one drop of the blood of our soldiers,” and Hitler during the Second World War, having attacked the USSR, he sought to seize Baku oil at all costs. In the post-war period, it became even more obvious that oil is a powerful weapon of influence in international relations. The era of "oil diplomacy" has begun. Now there is a struggle between world powers for resources, a search for alternative sources of energy resources, exploration and development of new deposits of natural fuel, a search for the most optimal transport routes for delivering oil and gas to importing countries that do not want a repeat of the oil "crises" of 1973 and 1978. One of these deposits, which is very rich not only in oil, but also in gas, limestone, salt, sand, etc., unique fishing and recreational resources is the Caspian Sea. Experts from different countries give different figures regarding the volume of “black gold” reserves in the region, but the fact is indisputable that although the oil reserves here do not exceed the reserves of the Persian Gulf, they are 2 times more North Sea. Especially relevant this question in light of the forthcoming decline in oil production in Alaska and the North Sea.

As early as 1994, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation undertook active diplomatic efforts to prevent the conclusion by Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan of contracts with Western companies for the development of oil and gas fields on the bottom of the Caspian Sea. On April 27, 1994, in connection with the planned conclusion of a contract between Azerbaijan and a consortium of Western companies, the Russian Foreign Ministry sent a note to Great Britain, in which it stated that Azerbaijan had no right to explore and produce oil on the shelf of the Caspian Sea. On September 12, 1994, notes from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation were sent to Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, and on September 16, to Kazakhstan, the notes of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation were sent, the purpose of which was to prevent the appearance of foreign (non-Russian) companies in the Caspian. However, they in no way stopped the process of concluding contracts between Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan with Western companies for the development of oil and gas fields in the Caspian Sea. Moreover, the notes of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation had no legal basis: all the Caspian states are sovereign, full-fledged subjects of international law and have the full right to conclude any types of agreements in their national sectors of the Caspian Sea, which were defined back in the Soviet period; secondly, the existing legal status of the Caspian Sea, determined by the well-known Russian-Iranian 1921 and Soviet-Iranian 1940 treaties, mainly stipulates the issues of navigation and fishing and they do not contain articles relating to the development of the mineral resources of the seabed, and, therefore, they cannot serve as an obstacle to the beginning of these works.

Caspian Sea Regional Security

The Caucasian-Caspian region as a geopolitical construction

Burov Alexander Alexandrovich,

postgraduate student of the Department of Management, Political Science and Sociology, Pyatigorsk State Linguistic University.

The article is devoted to the analysis of the status of the Caucasus-Caspian region as a geopolitical structure, whose role in last years changes radically due to the transformation of the system of political relations in the Caucasus as a whole. The current situation in the region, aggravated in connection with the August events in South Ossetia, is characterized by the rapid development of acute political processes, the radicalization of social and political life, active external interference in regional events, which threatens political stability in the adjacent Russian territories.The Caucasian-Caspian region has become a geopolitical, military-strategic, economic and communication foothold, which is acquiring strategic importance for all subjects of modern geopolitics. The region plays an important geostrategic role, which should be considered in the context of the political integration processes taking place in the Caucasus as a whole.

At present, the Caucasus-Caspian region has become the epicenter of large-scale events and processes. In this region, a clash of local, regional and global political interests of Russia, Western Europe, the United States, as well as influential states of the East - Iran and Turkey and other states claiming the role of regional leaders, has emerged. Growing attention to the region is paid by China, Japan and other states. All this makes the Caucasian-Caspian regional system political relations geopolitical "locus" of several large-scale projects requiring the cooperation of countries across the continent.

The Caucasian-Caspian region is connected with Russia by qualitatively closer historical, economic, political and cultural relations than with the West. On the other hand, Russian geopolitics in the North Caucasus is passive, while the US, NATO and the European Union are purposefully pursuing their political interests here.

The Caucasian-Caspian region directly borders on such "problem" regions as the Central Asian and Middle East, the problems of which, under unfavorable circumstances, can "splash" into its territory. The main problem of the above geopolitical neighbors is unsettled inter-ethnic relations (the problem of the Kurds in Turkey, the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, etc.), political instability(Tajikistan), the rapid growth of religious fundamentalism (Afghanistan), political extremism (Israel, Palestine, Pakistan) and terrorism (Chechnya).

The Caucasian-Caspian region occupies a strategic niche in geopolitics, just like the Caucasian region in general.According to A. Nyudyurbegov, from a geographical point of view, the Caucasus-Caspian region is: firstly, a foothold that pulls together the Black Sea and Caspian sea spaces; secondly, from a military-strategic point of view, it is the most important springboard for pressure and an offensive in any direction, against any country, not only in this region, but also in adjacent regions; thirdly, it is a springboard for control over communications; fourthly, from an economic point of view, it is not only a world crossroads of transport routes along the East-West, North-South axes, but also a region with huge hydrocarbon resources adjacent to it. The US Department of Energy estimates the resources of the Caspian Basin in the following figures: oil - from 17 to 33 billion barrels, potential reserves of 230 billion barrels (about 27.5 billion tons); gas - explored 232 trillion. cube feet, potentially 350 trillion. cube ft. Thus, the Caspian region is defined by the US State Department as " the most significant player in the global oil market in the coming decade» . As former US Secretary of State D. Baker noted, “in XXI in. Caspian oil may have the same value for industrial world, which oil of the Persian Gulf has today.

Caucasian- The Caspian region has long been peripheral in world politics. Its formation as an independent community was a consequence of the collapse of the USSR and the subsequent weakening of Russia's positions in the southern post-Soviet states. The desire of the republics of Transcaucasia and Central Asia to consolidate a new, sovereign status served as a pretext for major world and regional political forces to start targeted actions to draw these countries into their sphere of influence. The process of awareness by the Central Asian and South Caucasian republics of their independence from Russia, which is the basic condition for the realization of a number of interests of leading states and non-state actors, was largely initiated and coordinated by the latter.

See Danil Khachaturov Rosgosstrakh https://forbes.ru/profile/danil-hachaturov.

At present, the Caucasian-Caspian region is gradually becoming an object of interest for almost all the world's leading geopolitical forces. Particular interest on the part of many leading powers of the world is connected not only and not so much with the presence of huge reserves of hydrocarbon raw materials, but also with the fact that the region is gradually becoming a key one in the geostrategy of the world's competing forces. The growing tension in the region is an inevitable consequence of the geopolitical situation, which favors geostrategic competition.

It should be noted that the Caucasian-Caspian region has a number of features that affect the national security of Russia: specific national features of the peoples living in the North Caucasus; high risk of exacerbation of ethnic and religious problems; a long-term basis for the emergence of internal armed conflicts; the continuing attempts of the West to form and maintain a pro-Western orientation in the South Caucasian and Central Asian states.

An exceptionally important, key geopolitical issue of significant importance in the processes of political integration is the "Geopolitical status of the Caspian Sea" . The status of the Caspian Sea became the subject of consideration of international forums, agreements and consultations at various levels, discussions in the media mass media. In the relations of the Caspian states, this issue stands out among the topical ones, acquires strategic quality in national, regional, global politics.

Long discussions about the international legal status of the Caspian only led to the fact that it acquired the status of a "sea of ​​discord". The essence of the problem lies in the fact that The Caspian five cannot in any way share the world's largest lake (which has long been called the sea), and with it its subsoil, in particular, oil.

From the point of view of the norm of international maritime law, the Caspian Sea belongs to the closed (enclosed) seas. In accordance with this classification, two approaches to managing it are possible: either through division into national sectors, or through joint management.

The Caspian Sea has been a zone of Russian-Iranian political and economic interests for almost 250 years. At the beginning of the 90s XX in. The Caspian Sea ceased to be an internal lake of the USSR and new sovereign states appeared on its shores - former republics of the Soviet Union that had gone into oblivion (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan). With the increase in the number of Caspian subjects of international law from two to five, the Caspian and near-Caspian problems began to grow rapidly.The young heirs of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics declared their rights to his wealth. The fear of falling back into the "colonial" dependence of their larger and more powerful neighbor repelled the leaders of these countries from business partnerships with the political and economic elite of Russia.

Recently, at all meetings related to geopolitical issues, three sets of key issues have been discussed: 1) the status of the Caspian Sea, its resources and, accordingly, the principles of their division; 2) the situation with sturgeon in the entire basin; 3) development of transport and transit capacities (tied, in particular, to the Astrakhan region).

International conferences in Alma-Ata, Ashgabat, Tehran, Moscow, the agenda of which was determined by the problem of the status of the Caspian Sea, stated: the presence of fundamental differences in approaches to its solution; a well-defined perspective of politicization; the danger of dragging out negotiations for an indefinitely long period; the unsettledness of legal relations is not an obstacle to unilateral actions of the states in the Caspian Sea, but it significantly limits the possibilities of solving urgent problems of maritime use on an integration basis.

During consultations and discussions, the most debatable aspects of the issue of the status of the Caspian Sea were identified: 1) the priority of solving the problems of interstate relations and, above all, the legal status of the sea or its resolution in stages, not through coordination and determination of ways of interaction in other areas - ecology, use of bioresources , shipping, etc.; 2) the regional quality of resolving the issue or with the participation of states that have actively declared their interests in the Caspian; 3) the extension of national jurisdiction to the coastal areas of the sea or the delimitation of the entire body of water into national sectors and the recognition of their full and exclusive jurisdiction of the coastal state.

general, fundamental basis for all participants in the negotiations is the conviction that: a) the nature of international cooperation in the Caspian Sea is a global problem; b) ensuring cooperation of all littoral states in the Caspian Sea is necessary, for the implementation of this it is expedient to create a center for regional cooperation; c) interaction is feasible only on the basis of full parity of all the Caspian states.

The Caucasian-Caspian region belongs to the type of "functional" regions, and its formation was intended to contribute to solving the problems of a number of political actors. The concept of the region was originally formulated as an instrument of the expansionist aspirations of major Western powers associated with penetration into the previously "closed" post-Soviet space.

The geopolitical significance of the Caucasian-Caspian region is understood not only in Eurasia, but also "beyond the ocean". American geopoliticians have long formulated their attitude towards this region: “political influence over this vast region is the key to global control.” The administration of US President B. Clinton defined the task of its policy as nothing more and nothing less than "transforming everythingthis region and the international system around it.

Participation in the geopolitical game of such a subject as the United States carries the threat of turning the countries of this region themselves into objects of geopolitical manipulation of this world empire. At the same time, the “small countries” of this region have nothing to even think about that this superpower will regard them as equal partners.

Interest in the Caucasian-Caspian region in the United States intensified when information was disseminated about the presence in the bowels of large industrial reserves of oil and gas. Optimism in the mid-1990s XX in. slept a little at the beginning XXI in. due to doubts about vast reserves Caspian oil. However, the very myth of the “Caspian Klondike” will undoubtedly be beneficial for the United States for a long time, since it serves as a justification for their aggressive foreign policy.

Examining the US strategy in the Caucasus-Caspian region, analysts point out that as part of the implementation of their strategic plans, the United States is expanding its zone of influence in the Middle East to the Caucasus Range and the mouths of the river. Volga. “The significance of the Black Sea-Caspian region has become so significant for the United States that the problems of the Caspian Sea have been singled out by the US administration as a separate direction of foreign policy. A special department for the region and a task force were created as part of the National Security Council under the President of the United States, and the post of special adviser to the president and secretary of state on energy issues in the Caspian region was established. The CIA has created a special operational unit to monitor political processes in the Caspian countries. Washington's Caspian strategy is currently being developed by several hundred specialists in the US administration, Congress, and research centers.

The adoption by the Ministry of Defense of the country of the "Plan of Joint Commands" testifies to the strategic interests of the United States in the region under consideration, according to which the territory of the Caucasus and Central Asia - potential theaters of military operations, according to the authors of the plan - are transferred to the area of ​​responsibility of the US Central Command from October 1, 1998 Thus, this zone will include the space where the main transport arteries and communication lines of the region pass, and where more than 70% of the world's energy resources are located.

In 2001-2002 The United States began to pursue a policy of ousting Russia from the Caucasus and Central Asia. The Caspian was right at the very center of this new geopolitical game of the "great powers". As you know, the exact "barometer" of the mood of the US political elite are publications in the "free" Western press. When in the summer of 2002 in three editions - “ The Washington Post, The Times, and The Financial Times ”- articles appeared one after another, written in almost the same, mostly offensive to Russia, expressions, it became obvious that the West had unleashed a large-scale propaganda campaign to discredit Russian army and justification of the need to introduce an "international peacekeeping contingent" (i.e. American special forces) into region .

The US is trying to reduce its dependence on Arab oil supplies, which will ultimately reduce its dependence onMiddle Eastern sheikhs with their "pro-Palestinian" sentiments. To get to the oil fields of the Caspian, they have the support of oil tycoons of various kinds of despots. US expansion into the Caucasus-Caspian region is aimed at bringing the richest oil and gas fields of the Caspian Sea under control, ousting Russia from there.

Russia has also declared that the Caspian is a zone of its vital interests. But this was done much later by the United States: on April 21, 2000, at a meeting of the Security Council, President of the Russian Federation V. Putin confirmed that the Caspian is "a traditional zone of Russia's national interests."

It became paradoxical in the current situation that Russia itself zealously contributed to the West in its own expulsion from the Caucasus-Caspian region. Russian policy contributed to the fact that there was an internationalization of the competition for influence in the region. Having favorable geographic and historical circumstances to defend its interests, post-Soviet Russia has never been able to develop a pragmatic policy in this region. With rash actions and political miscalculations, she herself to a large extent undermined her position in the Caucasus.

Analyzing the geopolitical "loci" of the Caucasus-Caspian region, the following should be singled out: the images of the "energy pantry", "transport corridor", "buffer zone", "zone of instability". The interaction of these and other images of space forms several conceptual boundaries of the region, sometimes coinciding with the state ones, and sometimes crossing them. Each of these images, being the result of the actors' understanding of their own interests and spatial realities, has a serious impact on the dynamics of political processes in the region, largely predetermining the formation and setting the development vector of the regional system of political relations.

However, the situation that has developed in recent years in the Caucasus-Caspian region is acquiring more and more global significance. The problems of oil and gas pipelines, the conditions for the extraction of minerals, as well as the unfolding geopolitical rivalry between regional and world powers are becoming extremely relevant.

The situation is further aggravated by the fact that, strategically, the territory of Russia adjacent to the region has a low level of industrial development, a backlog in most socio-economic indicators, a high level of unemployment, a shadow economy and organized crime. All this has a negative impact on Russia's security, especially from the standpoint of a possible increase in the role of the Caucasus-Caspian region in connection with the strengthening tensions due to the military, political and economic penetration of the US and NATO into Georgia, Azerbaijan and, in the future, Armenia.

The lack of proper attention to the issues of the Caucasus-Caspian region on the part of the former leadership of the country after the collapse of the Soviet Union led to the fact that Russia almost lost its influence in this strategically important place. This partly explains the fact that religious extremism has become widespread in the region, and we are witnessing attempts by international terrorism to take root in the Caspian regions.

The high importance of the Caucasus-Caspian region in terms of Russian national interests is predetermined by the fact that Russia is both a Caspian state, a territory of potential and real transit of Caspian energy resources, and a state that is largely included in the global level of politics. The position occupied by Russia is associated with particular difficulties, but at the same time creates additional opportunities for it - both in the region under study and beyond. At the same time, the situation in the region is characterized by the rapid development of acute political processes, the radicalization of social and political life, active external interference in regional events, which threatens political stability in the adjacent Russian territories.

AT In the Caucasus-Caspian region, Russia can identify at least three options for the geopolitical scenario:

1.Unfavorable - Russia's withdrawal from the region as an active and independent geopolitical player. With this option, Russia becomes a conductor of foreign ideas and interests, and the Caspian falls into the zone international relations"third countries" who decide his fate in absentia. In such a situation, the countries-subjects of the region are completely eliminated from direct live dialogue and become puppet.

2. Favorable -Russia becomes the leading player and enters the zone of the Indo-Persian region through the Caspian Sea. This option will testify to the full involvement of Iran in the Russian geostrategic game and the intensification of confrontation with the United States.

3. Medium/intermediate option - Preservation of multipolarity in the Caucasus-Caspian region and increased tension in the settlement of the so-called "Caspian knot".

Factors that determine the priorities of the Caucasian-Caspian geopolitics of Russia, according to D.B. Malysheva are:

Possession of the energy resources of the Caspian, in the development of which significant investments have already been made;

Maintaining the competitiveness of Russian routes for bringing energy carriers to the world market; modernization of pipelines and diversification of their directions;

Determination of the legal status of the Caspian Sea by agreement of all 5 coastal countries;

Prevention of the Naval Forces of external countries for it into the Caspian basin or all-round localization of damage from their appearance;

Modernization of transport communications;

Countering military and political threats, assistance in resolving regional conflicts;

Preservation and rational management of the natural environment of the Caspian Sea.

The successful actions of the United States and the NATO bloc as a whole in geopolitical penetration into the Caspian Sea and Central Asia after September 11, 2001 create new threats to the status of the Russian Federation in the region, require adequate measures to restore the balance of geopolitical forces.

Nevertheless, it is obvious that the Caucasus-Caspian region is still still a region of peace and accord only because Russia plays the role of a deterrent for the penetration of the "third world" countries here.

Thus, over the past decade, the Caucasus and, more broadly, the Caucasus-Caspian region, which for a long time was considered a distant periphery of the geopolitical interests of the leading states of the world, almost overnight found itself in the center of rivalry. various countries and political forces, since it began to be regarded as a source of fabulous natural resources, primarily hydrocarbons. The region's hydrocarbon resources have turned before our eyes into one of the core problems of modern international politics. Along with energy resources, the region is rich in mineral resources such as iron, copper and chromium ores, Glauber's salt, chlorides, phosphorites, asbestos, etc., as well as bioresources. About 90% of the world's sturgeon stocks are concentrated in the Caspian Sea. Sturgeon and black caviar are a significant export item, bringing significant income to the Caspian countries. In addition, the Caucasus-Caspian region has great prospects for becoming an important hub of integrated transcontinental transport systems along the South-North and East-West lines.

It has become the epicenter of large-scale events and processes of world-historical significance. Unexpectedly, complex knots of local, regional and global interests were tied up here. It turned out to be in the focus of interests of Russia, Western Europe, the USA, as well as the influential states of the East - Iran and Turkey and other states claiming the role of regional leaders. Growing attention to the region is paid by China, Japan and other states. All this makes the Caucasian-Caspian regional system of political relations an important crossroads for several large-scale projects requiring cooperation from countries across the continent.

When analyzing the place and role of the Caucasian-Caspian geostrategic region both in world politics and in the political strategy of Russia, it should be considered as a single whole, regardless of the state, administrative, ethno-national and other borders that separate it from the inside. The validity of this approach is determined by the commonality of close centuries-old economic, cultural, political and other ties, historical destinies, the proximity of forms, standards and stereotypes of command, the peculiarities of the mentality, etc. The peoples of the Caucasus have common deeds, interests, especially in ensuring and maintaining peace in the region and stability, overcoming the consequences of wars and conflicts, preventing a new round of confrontation, protecting its ethno-cultural and natural-ecological identity.

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Also, the implementation of the initiative Silk Road allows you to position entire regions in a new way. Build a policy in the wake of economic benefits present stage The Caspian region was discussed at the International Symposium entitled "The Future of the Region: Geopolitical Challenges and Prospects", held on December 23 in Baku. The symposium was attended by leading political scientists, experts and public figures from Russia, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Georgia and Azerbaijan, including Hasan Ozturk, CEO of the Turkish television company Ülke TV, Russian political scientist Maxim Shevchenko, research journalist, independent expert Orkhan Dzhemal.

The participants of the symposium agreed that there is a need to create a new expert platform for international information partnership, which can be assembled already in next year In Astana. One of the key topics of discussion at the event was the issues of transport corridors and pipelines.

Most experts noted that regional and external forces should in no way exert political and military pressure on the participants in these economic projects.

Any state that possesses certain natural resources or goods has the right to choose the most advantageous route for the supply of its products. Murat Abenov, representative of the Kazakh delegation, member of the Presidium of the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs "Atameken", Chairman of the Committee for Information and Communication Technologies, Education and Innovation of the NCE RK, emphasized that the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs, the Union of Transport Workers of Kazakhstan Kazlogistics see great prospects in using the opportunities of the Trans-Caspian transport route.

Especially after the opening of the international railway corridor Baku-Tbilisi-Kars, which made it possible for the transit of Chinese and delivery of Kazakh goods through Azerbaijan, Georgia to Turkey and further to Europe. Thus, there is a diversification of logistics routes for our entrepreneurs and great opportunities are opening up for them in the issue of exporting their goods. In turn, Azerbaijani political scientist Elkhan Shainoglu expressed the opinion that such major projects how Baku-Tbilisi-Kars, the North-South transport corridor should contribute to the resolution of territorial problems, otherwise it is impossible to achieve good results in economic sphere when there are unresolved political issues between countries. Discussion of these topical problems, which are acute for the countries of the region, will contribute to finding a common ground for the further development of mutually beneficial relations.

The legal status of the Caspian will be determined Realizing its national interests in the Caspian, Kazakhstan is guided by both geopolitical motives and economic profitability. The presence of the largest reserves of hydrocarbon raw materials, a significant proportion of which falls on the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea, actualizes the issue of determining the international legal status of a reservoir. In this regard, the results of the meeting of foreign ministers of the Caspian states, held in Moscow in early December, were positive, where all the key issues on the draft convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea were agreed upon.

The signing of the convention is planned during the upcoming summit of the heads of the Caspian states in Kazakhstan in 2018, organized at the invitation of President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

Anticipating such a turn of events, the Coordinating Committee of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), established on the initiative of NC KTZ JSC, together with all participants in the trans-Caspian route, successfully and promptly resolves issues of creating attractive and mutually beneficial conditions for all participating countries to attract cargo flows to this route.

Acting as a locomotive for the development of the transcontinental route, a subsidiary of NC KTZ JSC - KTZ Express JSC, in early November 2017, organized the dispatch of the first container train from Kazakhstan along the TMTM route using the new Baku-Tbilisi-Kars connecting line. set the tone for the modernization of the Caspian infrastructure.

Understanding the economic prospects of their geographical location, the countries of the Caspian region are actively developing their port infrastructure. The existing port infrastructure of Kazakhstan - the ports of Aktau (capacity 19.5 million tons per year) and Kuryk (6 million tons per year) can reduce the time of travel by sea by four hours. Other countries of the Caspian basin also understand the need to modernize their seaports.

Baku International Sea Trade Port is also integral part TMTM, implemented within the framework of the new "Great Silk Road" project. It is expected to handle more than five million tons of cargo in 2018. In order to effectively use transit opportunities Azerbaijan is building new terminals and a free trade zone in the Alyat settlement.

The share of transshipment of goods passing through Russia in its Caspian ports is only 0.8 percent. Therefore, in November 2017, the Government of the Russian Federation approved the Strategy for the Development of Russian Seaports in the Caspian Basin, Railway and Road Access to Them until 2030. According to the strategy, the Caspian transport and logistics complex will be created in Dagestan.

At the same time, according to the Association of Sea Carriers of the Russian Federation, the cargo turnover of the seaports of the Caspian Basin of Russia in January-November 2017 fell by 35.4 percent compared to the same period last year. Russian experts explain such a sad dynamics by the departure of bulk cargo from Russian ports in the Caspian Sea to the ports of Azerbaijan. The development of port capacities is also carried out in Turkmenistan, where a new port in Turkmenbashi is expected to be commissioned. The new hub will have a throughput capacity of 17-18 million tons per year. And taking into account the operating port, the throughput will reach 25-26 million tons per year. In Iran, the port city of Chalus is located on the Caspian Sea, but it is actually a resort area.

In reality, cargo transshipment in the Iranian waters of the Caspian Sea is handled by the port of Bender-Anzeli, now called the "Free Economic Zone (FEZ) Anzeli". On March 30, 2017, the opening ceremony of a new port complex on the territory of this SEZ took place.

This facility is equipped with 22 berths. In the final stages of putting this new port into operation, its throughput capacity will be 15 million tons of cargo per year. Thus, we observe that at present, the countries of the Caspian region, given the growing interest of China in reorienting their trade to Eurasia within the framework of the Silk Road Economic Belt project, have already moved from discussing plans and prospects for transport cooperation to the progressive implementation of large-scale projects in the direction of modernization of coastal infrastructure.

The Caspian region at the end of XX - early XXI in. is in the focus of attention of international politics and the public and began to be perceived not as self-contained and static, but in the dynamics of global geopolitical interaction. At the same time, it has actually become a field of multi-vector rivalry and confrontation between those states and forces that would like to dominate this strategically important region of the world.

On August 15, 2017, Astrakhan hosted an international round table-video bridge "The Caspian region in the focus of international politics: the interests of non-regional powers" - the sixth meeting of the Caspian Expert Club. The event was organized by the Caspian-Eurasia Center for International and Socio-Political Studies and the Astrakhan 24 TV channel. The discussion was attended by Russian, Kazakh and Azerbaijani experts.

Meeting moderator, head of the Caspian-Eurasia Center Andrey Syzranov noted in his speech: “The most important external factor influencing the Caspian region is a significant expansion of the circle of countries that have their own geopolitical and geo-economic interests here. Along with the traditional geopolitical players: Russia, the United States, Great Britain, Turkey and Iran, France, Germany, China, Saudi Arabia. The region is the most important junction between the North and the South. The situation in the Caspian is largely determined by political factors, namely the commonality and differences in the national interests of the Caspian and near-Caspian states, the geopolitical alignment in the region and the international situation as a whole. These factors actualize the issue of ensuring the security of the region. The zone of the Caspian Sea and the Caspian territories today attract the attention of many countries of the world not only with its rich hydrocarbon reserves, but also with the features of the geopolitical and geostrategic order, which predetermines the economic, political and military-strategic interests of the leading subjects of world politics.

Vladislav Kondratiev, Head of the CASP-GEO Information and Analytical Portal: “Today, “American geopoliticians pay considerable attention to the Caspian region, primarily because the Caspian occupies a key position on the Eurasian continent, dominance in which is a long-term US foreign policy goal. When characterizing the geopolitical importance of the Caspian region, factors such as the favorable geographical and military-strategic position of the Caspian on the Eurasian continent, significant reserves of hydrocarbon minerals, the intersection of strategically important transport corridors in the region, and the wealth of biological resources are usually singled out. It is not necessary to count on the fact that Washington's policy in the Caspian Sea will not change in the near future.”

Astrakhan political scientist Ksenia Tyurenkova spoke about the image of the Caspian region in the Western media, noting that this image associated mainly with military themes. "European rhetoric regarding the Caspian has lately been in the nature of geopolitical interest and, at the same time, concern."

Zamir Karazhanov, the editor-in-chief of the Information and Analytical Center "Caspian Bridge" emphasized that with all the diversity of interests and foreign policy orientations, the Caspian countries should find common ground, harmonization of a common, Caspian policy, and not only in the field of energy interaction, but also humanitarian cooperation, tourism. The expert also drew the attention of colleagues to the fact that the Arab monarchies of the Middle East have their special interest in the Caspian zone.

Azerbaijani expert, head of the Greater Middle East project Ali Hajizade gave a detailed analysis of Saudi Arabia's policy in the Caspian region. In particular, he noted that the Arabs are striving to pursue a policy in the region aimed primarily at containing Iran.

Eduard Poletaev, the head of the Public Foundation "World of Eurasia" touched upon the topic of security in the Caspian Sea. He noted that the interests of external players in the Caspian are quite closely intertwined both among themselves and in relations with the Caspian countries.

Political scientist Edward Zakharyash drew attention to the fact that many countries and international organizations are pursuing their interests in the Caspian region. “I will say without exaggeration that world powers are interested in Caspian oil and gas. And so the questions collective security for the Caspian countries today are priorities. Playing only "one's own card" is extremely dangerous here. The way out is in a common approach, in a coordinated Caspian policy for each of the five countries in the region. It is necessary to create common mechanisms for the Caspian security”.

Ilgar Velizade, the head of the club of political scientists "South Caucasus", expressed the opinion that the Caspian Sea has long been a zone of interaction between world civilizations. Today, in his opinion, the region is of interest to the leading countries of the world from different positions, for example, for the implementation of three major transport energy "routes": "North-South", "West-East" and "South-West". The expert also noted that the solution of the urgent problems of the Caspian policy by the countries of the region is impossible without common coordinated approaches and actions.

Kazakhstani expert, director of the Center current research"Alternative" Andrey Chebotarev believes that the United States and the European Union are the most active in the Caspian zone. But at the same time, the activity of the eastern "players" is also noticeable, for example, China, which operates in the Caspian transport and logistics direction slowly, but on a large scale and purposefully.

Sergei Novoselov, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Science and International Relations of the Astrakhan state university convinced that the Caspian region occupies important place in US foreign policy, and not so much because of economic interests, but because of the opposition to the influence of Russia and Iran.

Head of the Astrakhan branch of the Youth Assembly of the Peoples of Russia Azamat Aminov drew attention to the fact that in the Caspian zone the interests of not only regional countries, but also the near-Caspian states, in particular, Uzbekistan, which is now interested in deepening economic cooperation with the countries of the Caspian region, are realized.

Nurbek Shaimakov, Head of the Sector of Interregional Cooperation of the Department of the CIS Countries and Regions of Russia, Ministry of International and foreign economic relations The Astrakhan region drew attention to the fact that the most acute issue, which largely determines the relationship between the Caspian states and requires an urgent solution, is the issue of the legal status of the Caspian Sea.

The experts agreed that the above aspects update the creation unified system ensuring security in the Caspian region to prevent the emergence and development of conflict situations. In this context, it is worth noting that the creation of a security system in the region is significantly complicated by the multipolarity of the foreign policy vectors of the Caspian states and the active influence of external forces on the geopolitics of the region.

Required painstaking work, as opposed to the negative external influence on the security of the Caspian region, the implementation of the following stabilizing measures: the creation of a mechanism for cooperation in the field of security in the Caspian region, the constructive resolution of various contradictions within the region, the balanced building of relations with international security structures.

In the geopolitics of Russia, the problem of ensuring its national security is extremely topical. The modern foreign policy pursued according to the principle “Guys, let's live together!” is disastrous for Russia.

The Caspian oil-producing region includes the Caspian Sea and the surrounding oil and gas areas of Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran. The proven oil reserves in the Caspian region amount to 5.1 billion tons, the proven gas reserves - 8 trillion m3. From 1998 to 2004, as new oil reserves were confirmed in the region, their value increased from 2.6% to 3.3% relative to world proven ones. The global share of the region in terms of proven gas reserves is about 5%. A large proportion of proven oil reserves are in Kazakhstan (3.6 billion tons) and Azerbaijan (1 billion tons). The reserves of oil fields in the Caspian sector of Turkmenistan are estimated at 230 million tons. In the Russian sector of the sea-lake there are about 300 million tons of oil. The bulk of proven gas reserves are in Turkmenistan (2.92 trillion m3) and the Russian part of the Caspian region* (2.5 trillion m3). 1.9 trillion m3 of gas was discovered in the Caspian sector of Kazakhstan, 0.72 trillion m3 of gas in Azerbaijan. Within the waters of the Caspian Sea there are giant hydrocarbon deposits, such as Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli and Shah Deniz in the Azerbaijani sector, Kashagan in the Kazakh sector.

Since the late 1990s, oil and gas production in the Caspian region has been growing rapidly. Oil production almost doubled from 1992 to 2003: from 40.3 to 76.8 million tons per year; Gas production is growing even faster: from 1998 to 2003 it increased from 23.7 to 77.1 billion m3 per year.

At present, there are three main oil producers in the Caspian region - Kazakhstan (the leader in terms of production and proven reserves), Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Gas is produced by the same countries and Russia. The main developer of gas fields is Turkmenistan. Iran does not produce oil and gas in the Caspian. It has deposits disputed with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan and geological structures promising for hydrocarbons and, apparently, does not intend to start developing its part of the Caspian Sea until the status of the reservoir is finally settled.

The interest of foreign oil companies in the Caspian Sea is determined by the depletion of world mineral fuel reserves. The availability of proven oil resources today does not exceed half a century. The Caspian Sea is approximately equal to the North Sea in terms of its oil reserves. European consumers of North Sea oil will be gradually reoriented to the consumption of Caspian resources.

Modern processes of globalization could not but affect the Caspian region, rich in strategic fuel resources, which, being located in the center of Eurasia, found itself in a transition zone between Western and Eastern civilizations, between the rich North and the poor South. The main geopolitical players in the Caspian region can be grouped into four groups.

First, it is economically and politically significant for modern world countries that have their own interests far from their state borders - the USA, the EU countries. In the near future, China and Japan will be able to join them. Secondly, these are countries adjacent to the Caspian region (or located relatively close to it) and competing with each other for expanding their influence in the region or for control over the flow of energy resources from it: Georgia, Armenia, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Greece and others. Thirdly, these are countries that have ideological interests in the Caspian region, expressed in the form of pan-Islamism (the brotherhood of all Islamic peoples) - Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates - and pan-Turkism united state) - Turkey. And, finally, fourthly, the countries of the Caspian region themselves, including Russia.

Let us now consider the strategy of various countries or their groups in the Caspian region.

United States of America and EU countries

having created a powerful and multi-component economy, they are interested in its preservation and further development. The United States is home to 4.5% of the world's population, but accounts for 22% of the world's total GDP. The struggle for fuel and other mineral resources between the countries of the "rich North" and the "poor South" is inevitable, since the growth of GDP and resource consumption in developing countries outstrips this growth in developed countries. According to analysts, for the whole of 2005 the overall GDP growth in developed countries did not exceed 4%, while in developing countries it was almost 6%.

Washington sees itself as the guarantor of the stability needed to ensure the free flow of oil from the Caspian region to Western markets. Caspian oil (albeit not in such large volumes as previously expected), firstly, will expand the choice of fuel suppliers for the United States, thus reducing dependence on any one supplier, for example, OPEC countries. Secondly, the expansion of the number of suppliers puts oil exporters in certain dependence from the United States, which creates leverage on these countries if they pursue a policy objectionable to the Washington administration.

For the United States, the development of other states is contrary to their national interests. From the strategy adopted in 1998 national security For the 21st century, the United States reserves the right to use military force against those countries whose development will not suit the United States. Now it is very important for Washington to create and maintain effective leverage on states and groups of states potentially capable of challenging the United States. To do this, the Americans are trying to take control of the main flows of finance and cargo, to prevent scientific cooperation between countries in areas objectionable to the United States (for example, cooperation between Russia and Iran in the field of nuclear energy).

During the presidency of B. Clinton, the United States declared the Caspian-Black Sea region a zone of its vital interests. Its significance for the United States became so great that the problems of the Caspian region were singled out by the US administration as a separate direction of foreign policy: a special department for the region was created, the target working group As part of the Security Council under the President, the post of Special Advisor to the President and Secretary of State on energy issues in the Caspian region was established.

After the terrorist attacks in September 2001, the military component increased in US foreign policy. To strengthen its own security, the United States included in its sphere of geopolitical influence, along with the Caspian countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan), the rest of the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, which can affect the situation in the Caspian region (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Georgia). The United States came up with the idea of ​​creating an immediate response force guarding oil and gas facilities. transport infrastructure in the Caspian region. On the whole, the leadership of the Central Asian and Transcaucasian countries readily supported the new US initiatives.

Economic instability in the Caspian countries, the unsettled status of the Caspian Sea, military-political conflicts (Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia) in the region are objects of American policy. On the one hand, they pose a threat to American interests in the region. On the other hand, these unfavorable processes are used by the Americans to justify their political and economic presence in the region as advisers and peacekeepers.

Unlike the United States, the EU countries in the Caspian region have almost exclusively economic interests. The main goal is to ensure our own energy security in the 21st century. A new oil and gas supplier reduces Europe's dependence on Middle Eastern and Russian oil. The oil reserves of the North Sea may run out in 10-15 years. Therefore, for example, in Germany, over the past 3 years, the share of Caspian oil has increased from 1 to 7% in total energy consumption. The second goal of some EU countries in the Caspian region is the preservation and development of their own oil industry through the work of their oil companies in richer fields outside their country. This strategy is implemented by Statoil (Norway), British Petroleum (Great Britain), Total (France) and Eni (Italy).

Neighbor countries of the Caspian region

The interests of the neighboring countries of the Caspian region lie in the plane of the Euro-American strategy to create a western vector for the transportation of Caspian energy resources. At the same time, it cannot be said that these countries are as keenly interested in the transit of Caspian energy resources as the United States or Western Europe. To meet their needs in energy resources, it is enough for them to get access to even a small share of the flow of oil or gas to the West.

Of this group of countries, only Georgia, which has virtually no oil and gas reserves of its own, is vitally interested in the transit of Caspian energy resources. The Baku-Supsa and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipelines passing through its territory, as well as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline under construction, can provide significant contributions to the restoration of the Georgian economy lying in ruins. At the same time, new hydrocarbon transportation routes are designed to reduce energy dependence on Russia, weaken the economic and political influence great northern neighbor in Transcaucasia.

Turkey occupies a special place in the geopolitics of the Caspian region. This country is actively involved in the creation and strengthening of the western vector for the transportation of Caspian energy resources, bypassing not only Russia, but also its own Bosporus and Dardanelles straits. The American-Turkish strategy of creating a multi-vector energy flow from the Caspian region is a struggle against Russia's pipeline monopoly, through which the main flow of oil and gas from the Caspian region still flows. The most powerful of the existing Caspian oil pipelines, the oil pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), also passes through Russia. The capacity of its first stage is 28 million tons of oil per year, the pipe connects the West Kazakhstan fields (including the largest of them - Tengiz) with the Russian port of Novorossiysk.

Caspian states

The policy of the Caspian states themselves - Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan is aimed at attracting foreign investment as soon as possible to develop their hydrocarbon resources, creating new pipelines that reduce transport dependence on Russia. This strategy is most clearly expressed in Azerbaijan. The reasons for this are the westernmost position in the region, good geological knowledge of the seabed, the pro-Western orientation of the political elite and close cultural ties with Turkey.

Kazakhstan is in trouble geopolitical position. He has to play on the contradictions between Russia, the US and China. Having allowed Western oil companies to develop its oil and gas fields, Kazakhstan is interested in developing Western hydrocarbon transportation routes. However, it is not as easy for him as for Azerbaijan to get rid of Russia when choosing oil transportation routes - due to its geographical location and close economic ties.

Turkmenistan exports gas to the northwest through Russia via the Central Asia-Center gas pipeline system, as well as to Iran, where the Korpeje-Kord-Kui gas pipeline was recently built. Such transportation routes are determined by geographic location countries. Export of gas along the bottom of the Caspian Sea is unprofitable at current world prices. In foreign policy, Turkmenistan adheres to a strategy of neutrality, which makes it easier for it to choose new gas transportation routes. Turkmenistan's oil reserves are small and do not attract foreign companies.

Iran is not interested in the early development of the Caspian deposits. With significant oil and gas reserves in the Persian Gulf, this country considers the Caspian Sea as a reserve oil and gas basin. It is clear that Iran is interested in preserving natural environment Caspian. Iran itself does not produce oil and gas in the Caspian, but it buys a certain amount of oil and gas from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. It is beneficial for him, since the Caspian fuel goes to power plants in the north of the country, far from the Persian Gulf, while the equivalent volumes of Iranian hydrocarbons are exported.

Russian interests in the Caspian region

In conditions when the Caspian region has turned from the backyard of the USSR into an important object of world geopolitics, Russia's choice of the right strategy in relation to this region is extremely important for maintaining its economic and military security. It must be admitted that at present the foreign policy efforts undertaken by our country to confirm its high status in the region are clearly insufficient. Russia's actions in the Caspian in the post-Soviet period were either a response to the initiatives of its Caspian neighbors in the CIS***, or were subordinated to the interests of national oil companies (LUKOIL, YUKOS, etc.), which by no means always coincide with the state ones.

Today, the main directions of Russia's policy in the Caspian Sea are in the following main positions:

The desire to control as much as possible the volume of exported Caspian hydrocarbons,

Present Gazprom as a monopoly on gas transportation from Central Asia,

To expand our participation in projects for the extraction of Caspian oil and gas, mainly in the Kazakh sector of the water area.

The general shortcoming of this strategy is its narrowness and short-sightedness. Russian interests in the region do not yet provide security, do not prevent the rough economic and military-political expansion of the West, lead to the undermining of the ecological balance of the Caspian Sea, increase the explosiveness of the region, leading to the growth of social problems.

In the geopolitics of Russia, the problem of ensuring its national security is extremely topical. The modern foreign policy pursued according to the principle “Guys, let's live together!” is disastrous for Russia. Stable and safe development of Russia is impossible without conflict with the West, led by the United States. History shows that the position of the Russian state between the civilizations of the West and the East is geopolitically unfavorable, it can be compared with the position between a rock and a hard place. Russia (USSR) is historically characterized by the role of a peacemaker, a leader in the Eurasian space. In order to prevent the development of destabilizing forces in the Caspian, Central Asia and Transcaucasia, Russia must determine for itself firm principles foreign policy.

* Proved reserves of the Astrakhan gas condensate field.

** The idea of ​​building a gas pipeline Davlatabad-Herat-Kandahar-Multan-Gwadar (Pakistan's port on the Arabian Sea) with a capacity of 15 billion m Russia.

*** When deciding on the division of the Caspian Sea in the 1990s, Russia showed inconsistency and inconsistency. Depending on the interests of one or another Caspian state, Russia offered to divide the Caspian in different ways. The Caspian neighbors, noticing Russia's own lack of a firm position on this issue, began to listen to its opinion much less.

M.G. Zhulinsky

Postgraduate Student, Department of Economic and Social Geography

Moscow Pedagogical State University,

geography teacher of school number 96 Moscow

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